BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Labor now eclipses the Coalition on the primary as well as the two-party preferred vote in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, courtesy of a dramatic result from Newspoll.

A bruising result for the Coalition from Newspoll shows up as a meaty 0.7% shift on two-party preferred in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, yielding an extra seat for Labor in each of the four largest states on the seat projection. Newspoll furnishes a new seat of leadership ratings, and the latest aggregate readings reflect it in having both leaders down on net approval, with a modest reduction in Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister. However, the more impressive fact of the latter measure especially is its solidity since last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,485 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. BB

    Grow up stop crying. How many times have you heard bullies say that phrase. You need to examine yourself carefully. How dare anyone have a different opinion than you and keep arguing the case.

    Just grow up and shutup and stop crying. So much the bully behaviour.
    Go see court cases about cyber bullying and the legislation Labor as a government has passed in the States about it.

  2. Confessions

    Read at the weekend that Joyce wouldn’t be coming to WA. He has called Grylls’ mining tax plan a dumb idea so it would be hard to share a platform with him

    Fiona Nash was said to be coming, be interesting to see where she shows up.

  3. Fess:

    I like the WA Nats to the extent that they are happy to strike out from the Libs. The rest of the Nats are biggest sellouts in Aus Politics. I always come back to the NSW North Coast in this situation. The only regional area of NSW to have a coal seam ban is the only regional area to throw out the Nats.

  4. Bushfire:

    Unfortunately guytaur continues to demonstrate he isn’t willing to be humble and admit he f*cked up. Alas we are likely to be hearing coalition talking points about the NBN from him for days and weeks to come.

  5. Confessions

    I am not doing talking points from the LNP. I hate Fraudband. I want Labor’s NBN.

    However thats not going to happen if you ignore politics and the facts.

    Facts are clear. Superior thought the NBN is Fraudband has been rolled out. We are stuck with the results. That includes Labor telling us that for those on HFC and the Node.

    Thats not coalition talking points its reality.

  6. rossmcg:

    Joyce wouldn’t be welcomed I’d imagine, being for the reasons you state ie mining tax.

    Ides:

    The Nats here are proposing a mining tax. My lower house vote consequently went 1. Labor, 2. Green, 3. Nat. With Libs, creepy christians and PHON rounding out the ballot paper.

  7. I am not doing talking points from the LNP

    Yes you are. You did this morning and you still are now.

    I’m not engaging any further with you on this because frankly I think you need a break from here to regroup your self esteem and realise how utterly ridiculous your comments have been on this subject. Have you even taken a shower today, much less had something to eat, something to eat that’s real food not junk food out of a package?

  8. CTar,

    I consider that a good situation. It would be good to turn Lingiari into a completely safe Labor seat with either candidate.

  9. Confessions

    I see reality I am not a spear carrier for the ALP. The fact you are resorting to using LNP talking points when all here know from many posts I have made for a few years I much prefer Labor’s NBN.

    To say I am spouting LNP talking points is another lie in an attempt to discredit and bully my voice into submission as oh you must be a spear carrier for the other side if you don’t parrot the Labor points about the NBN.

    Well reality is Fraudband IS being rolled out. Maybe not as fast (crossed fingers) as the LNP claim but its still been rolled out. We have had some posters here telling their anecdotal stories about being stuck on HFC. Thats reality not a talking point.

    Sorry reality gets in the way and no I will not let my voice be silenced by accusations of LNP talking points label.

  10. MF

    I was never about that. I responded to some specific questions by others. All day I have been saying User Case. Costs for the consumer. Fraudband is rolling out now. How stuck are we?

    Yes it was a provocative way of putting it but it does not change the reality and that may and the if part of the theory being proved wrong in responding to that were important.

  11. That 4C on the gambling and money-laundering crackdown out of China, which has ensnared Packer’s Crown, was truly eye-opening and eye-watering.

    I’m so happy I’m not a gambler, nor a money-launderer, or an owner of a Casino business.

  12. I know this blog has not been a place of interest for psephologists for some years, as there are far more interesting things for the bloggers to obsess about, but the result of Northern Ireland’s snap election is fascinating.

    For the first time since the province was founded in 1920 the unionists have lost their majority and are evenly placed with the nationalists. This was not expected to happen until the 2050s when the architects of the Good Friday agreement that institutionalised rather than destroyed sectarianism felt that it was of no major concern as it would be someone else’s problem but it has serious consequences.
    The reasons: 1. a serious of scandals involving DUP leadership and, I suspect; 2. Brexit makes a united Ireland significantly more attractive.
    In any case there are 3 options:
    1. a new power sharing government. This is unlikely to be organised in the mandated 3 weeks as Sinn Fein refuses to deal with Arlene Foster the DUP leader and first minister and is demanding a Gaelic language act promised by the Good Friday agreement
    2. A new election with probably a similar result although turnout would be at record levels
    3. Westminster assumes direct rule and we are back to square one – I suspect this will be the result as it will also allow the UK government to neutralise NI concerns during Brexit

    Hopefully this time there will not be a resort to violence

    Anyway, sorry for interrupting, just get back to arguing if Guytaur believe in a speed faster than light.

  13. Bemused

    My assertion was Mobile use may make FTTP obsolete. Just as VHS made Betamax obsolete.

    I never said wireless only. That was P1

  14. OC

    Brexit makes a united Ireland significantly more attractive.

    Yep. That’s got to be something that is a real factor.

  15. bemused

    I only pointed out mobile only as a fact in some counties. I never said mobile only. Using such an example was to point out there are reasons costs can overcome physics of a superior product being rolled out.

    That was all.

    This all started because some Labor people thought I was attacking FTTP. Not the case.

  16. have long held the belief that all gambling AND alcohol advertising and sponsorship should be banned.

    And junk food too. There is no social benefit to advertising and sponsorship from junk food manufacturers. Free will is a myth. Most of our cognition is automatic and unconscious, and heavily influenced by priming, what information is most prominent and readily available, etc. Let’s make it easier for people to eat well by getting rid of the aggressive and ubiquitous marketing of junk food. Junk food will always be available, but there is no need for it to be advertised.

  17. Rossmcg,
    If you are still around. I think I have figured out the Cash splash story which appeared in the media today..

    I am now convinced it was a planted story. I also believe I have figured out who dropped it to Fairfax before they went to Indonesia.

    Not Malcolm Turnbull, but fellow Sandgroper, Julie Bishop.

    It all became clear to me when Paul Barry did a story tonight on Media Watch about the new Liberal leadership horse race. Of course the focus was mainly on Mr Potato Head, however, what was really interesting to me was that Paul Barry referenced a story which had been written in The Australian a week or so ago, by Janet Albrechtsen.

    In it she wrote about her ‘dream team’ for the new Liberal leadership. Peter Dutton as leader, and, come on down from the Senate to the Lower House, Michaelia Cash!

    I reckon ‘Hollywood’ Bishop saw that, got out the dirt file on Michaelia (I’m sure Julie knows where all the WA Liberal bodies are buried and where the skeletons are in the walk-in wardrobes of the rich and powerful in WA, and sent the story winging it’s way to Fairfax.

    I think Michaelia would have gotten the message to stay where she is, loud and clear. 🙂

  18. Nicholas, No need to ban, I would be happy if they just took the junk out of food.
    Better and healthier for everyone.

  19. guytaur @ #1221 Monday, March 6, 2017 at 10:14 pm

    bemused
    I only pointed out mobile only as a fact in some counties. I never said mobile only. Using such an example was to point out there are reasons costs can overcome physics of a superior product being rolled out.
    That was all.
    This all started because some Labor people thought I was attacking FTTP. Not the case.

    You have repeatedly said “mobile is not wireless”.

  20. Oakeshot:

    Thank you for talking about NI’s snap election. I was unaware it happened. I hope the UK does not resume direct rule as that would not really help I believe.

  21. [My assertion was Mobile use may make FTTP obsolete.]

    Yeah you probably shouldn’t assert that, even with a ‘may’. The comparison you keep making with betamax and VHS does not seem in anyway relevant or in anyway helpful.

  22. Bemused

    No I have used Mobile to mean both. Read my posts in context I did not make a separation about towers vs Wifi that was others.

  23. How dare anyone have a different opinion than you and keep arguing the case.

    If Einstein had been exposed as a shameless self-promoting quack, with crackpot ideas, you might have a point.

    But when you characterize way-out theories as “differences of opinion” with someone who is practically the definition of genius, I think you need just a littlemore than “my opinon’s as valid as yours”.

    The reference to cyber bullying is just stupid. Sometimes people need to be told they are a hysterical crybaby running off to the policeman on the corner yelling “That man hit me!” . Bullies do say similar things too, of course, but in your case it’s the truth.

    Your argument that disagreeing with you is tantamount to cyber bullying is the same trope that anti-vaccination nutjobs, Earth-is-cooling cranks and free energy delusionists all use to try to frighten their interlocutors.A couple of lite-reading, pop-science articles in the New Scientist don’t justify yet another Green-inspired halt to the nation’s economy until something nicer, faster or just cooler comes along.

    Stand on a street corner and wait for the cargo to be delivered, Guytaur, because there’s not much difference between your opinion and that of a hopeful New Guinea native waiting for tinned apricots to be delivered to a pre-cleared mountaintop just behind his village. But why bother people here with your wacky justifications for doing absolutely nothing at all about the problems of Now until the earth is perfect in form and Gaia is able to tell Alfred Einstein to naff off back to his kindergarten and come up with something useful for a change?

    If it seems I’m over-reacting that’s probably correct, but I am heartily sick of the quasi Moore’s Law view of technology – whether genuinely held or otherwise – that leads to us all living back on caves and spooning yoghurt while we wait for something better, faster or cheaper to come along next engineering release.

  24. What’s the latest regarding Brexit? Is it going to be voted on in Parliament? Could it result in a ‘soft’ brexit that does less economic damage? Can we expect any improvement in the GBP any time soon?

  25. BB

    IF I had said Einstein’s theories HAVE been proved wrong you would have a point. However there was that word IF in response to P1’s post. Its a small word but its a huge meaning.

  26. Far out! I never thought I would find myself pining for the Rudd Gillard wars. But after the round and round in circles energy debate, and Guytaur’s obsessive refusal to let go this notion of mobile takeover in spite of being called out and shown evidence to the contrary, bring back the Rudd Gillard wars I say! At least some psephology can be thrown in to that. Sigh!

  27. cud chewer @ #1197 Monday, March 6, 2017 at 9:43 pm

    Grimace,
    It wasn’t that NBNco (under Labor) wasn’t aware of the issue of asbestos. It was that they obtained pits and ducts from Telstra on a fit for purpose basis. It was Telstra’s redponsibility to remefiate and they took their time. In large part because Telstra itself had scanty documentation.
    In the end it should not have mattered except it was used by the screaming Murdoch media. Notice how delays caused by FTTN ‘teething problems’ have been entirely ignored in the MSM. This also demonstrates clearly the decay of the ABC.

    Thanks for clarifying, the details of the asbestos issue had long since left my memory. You are aboslutly right on the Murdoch media and the decay of the ABC.

  28. Sorry C@Tmomma, that’s tinfoil hat territory for me.

    I stick with what I said earlier. No conspiracy, Cash stuffed up.

  29. BB

    You are doing a masterclass in bullying right now.

    Think carefully about what you are doing. If I do run to the police I will have to make a case that will stick in court. Have you thought about that?

    No you are so quick to lecture me based on cherry picked posts ignoring points I have made continually all day because it gets in the way of your bullying.

  30. Bemused

    Only in response to those talking download speeds and pointing out that mobile users would use free Wifi to do downloads when they thought about it.

  31. ‘Think carefully about what you are doing. If I do run to the police I will have to make a case that will stick in court. Have you thought about that?’

    Oh, ffs.

    Now you’re being a bully, guytaur.

  32. US Politics:

    The President is showing increasing flashes of anger over the performance of his senior staff and daily developments about Russia overshadowing his message, multiple people inside the White House and outside the administration told CNN.
    Trump voiced his frustration to his inner circle in the Oval Office Friday, sources said. He feels attacked by the media, former Obama administration officials and others, and frustrated that things are not going more smoothly. The President expressed his anger at non-stop leaks undermining his administration, the sources said.

    One source familiar with the Friday meeting said Trump was angry at senior staff, including chief of staff Reince Priebus, about the state of affairs at the White House this week.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/04/politics/donald-trump-jeff-sessions-reince-priebus/index.html

    So after being angry with his staff because he’s ‘frustrated that things are not going more smoothly‘ he racks off to Florida and sends stupid tweets …

    FMD.

  33. guytaur @ #1237 Monday, March 6, 2017 at 10:28 pm

    Bemused
    Only in response to those talking download speeds and pointing out that mobile users would use free Wifi to do downloads when they thought about it.

    I do not recall you saying anything like that.

    Can I make a suggestion? Make 1/10th the number of posts and put 10x the thought into each of them. Maybe then you will not tie yourself in knots.

  34. bemused

    I said it. It was in conversation with Grimace. I mentioned cinema viewing for movies and wifi for downloads for mobile only users.

    This happens today. Right now for those who do only use mobiles.

    However cherry picked posts make out I said something else and to be accurate I missed the word view in reference to cinemas.

  35. Think carefully about what you are doing. If I do run to the police I will have to make a case that will stick in court. Have you thought about that?

    I’m quaking in my boots. Waiting for that knock on the door from the Cyber Police can have that effect on you. Is that a black Bully Detection Van across the street?

    No, probably just my imagination.

  36. zoomster

    I have pointed out and asked for a correction. IGNORED.

    I have then have had everyone pile on and call my comment stupid. Then they get called LNP talking points.
    Its not me doing the bullying.

  37. US Politics:

    CNN/ORC poll: Most back special prosecutor for Russia investigation

    About two-thirds of Americans say a special prosecutor should investigate contacts between Russians and Trump campaign associates, according to a new CNN/ORC poll, and 55% say they are at least somewhat concerned by reports that some connected to the Trump campaign had contact with suspected Russian operatives.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/06/politics/trump-approval-rating-russia-poll/index.html

  38. guytaur @ #1243 Monday, March 6, 2017 at 10:33 pm

    bemused
    I said it. It was in conversation with Grimace. I mentioned cinema viewing for movies and wifi for downloads for mobile only users.
    This happens today. Right now for those who do only use mobiles.
    However cherry picked posts make out I said something else and to be accurate I missed the word view in reference to cinemas.

    So you said it.
    Good!

  39. OC

    Funny you should mention psephology.

    I have been a visitor to this site on and off over the tears, usually in the leadup and aftermath of elections (WA’s is coming up) in the hope of learning something.

    I have seen the RGR wars, the relentless bashing war on the Greens, I came back a couple of weeks ago to see DTT crash and burn and since then we have had the energy wars last week and today the NBN stoush.

    There used to be people here who offered interesting insights and people like Meher Baba who were full of shit, the bloke who was an apologist for Putin and a very pro-Israel guy and the
    absolutely off the wall Tory trolls.

    And while a few remain politics seems to play second fiddle. It’s almost if people like Guytaur and his protagonists are paid to generate traffic .

    Hopefully the WA election result will be known quickly and I can pack my swag (literally) and hit the road again.

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