Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The only pollster to have reported so far this year finds One Nation reaching double figures, amid an otherwise stable set of results on voting intention.

The steady ascent of One Nation continues in this week’s fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which finds the party up a point to 10% to surpass the Greens, down one to 9%, with the Coalition, Labor and Nick Xenophon Team steady on 35%, 37% and 3%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 54-46.

The poll also finds Australia’s “current political and economic system” is deemed in need of fundamental change by 40%, refinement by 44%, and no change by 6%. There are also familiar findings about who does and doesn’t pay enough tax (61% say mining companies pay too little, 72% the same for large international companies, and religious organisations come in at 58%). Sixty per cent rated that higher tax on multinational companies would be good for the economy, versus 11% for bad.

On trade, 47% say free trade agreements are, generally speaking, a good thing for Australia, versus 15% for bad – which I’m a bit surprised by given other recent trade-related findings. Fifty-two per cent thought Australia should pursue a Trans-Pacific Partnership type agreement without the United States, versus only 19% who thought it should pull out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Andy Riley ‏@AndyRileyish 11h11 hours ago

    The left protest about Trump, but they’re strangely silent about King Raedwald’s invasion of Northumbria in AD 616

  2. Player One

    If you have been up in the Pilbara then such antediluian views would be no surprise. After all it is the place that spawned Lang Hancock and wee Gina.
    Here is Lang Hancock in 1984 saying we should put sterilising agents in Aboriginal’s water supply. Bonus clips of various other bods around the nation expressing views that have never gone away.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMaRuk6pGOc

  7. Monarchies do not have to be decided by family birth.

    Trump is the British Middle Ages equivalent of a 5 yo whose Queen/King parent died and finds him/herself suddenly King/Queen.

  8. Nicholas

    So if Labor isn’t fit to return to government, are you proposing we stick with the Libs? Because – at the moment – those are the only two choices we have.

    Even if the scales fell off all our eyes tomorrow and we went out and worked for a Green tomorrow, it still wouldn’t happen.

    So what are you suggesting? The old canard that we have to wait until Labor is Pure until it’s allowed to assume government – but in the meantime, the Liberals can just do what they want?

  9. Yes but Trumpf has infinitely more power than Liz. Our kings/queens are not monarchs.

    Parliament is supreme, subject to a written constitution in the case of Canada and Australia. Our PMs have much less power than a US president. No guarantee against being deposed by “parliament” at any time if she does not perform.

  12. WA LIBS GOING GOING but not yet GONE!

    Jessica Strutt ‏@JessicaStrutt 2h2 hours ago

    Lib MPs have told me Premier conceded in final party room meeting the govt is not in a winning position at the moment 1/2

  13. Zoomster,
    Don’t be so practical and pragmatic around Nicholas! You might make the scales fall from his eyes and the light could be blinding! 😀

  14. Some gossip re Trump from his republican advisers in the White House

    “….by all accounts Donald is not the businessman anyone on his team expected, week one he is out of control, his concentration is all off point, his ego is 3 times the size it was the day before inauguration. Senior staff are ready to quit already, there is no focus at the top and this is filtered through the entire building, this is all just hearsay at this point, supposedly 3 people have already walked out of meetings with the president due to his demeanour, he is being undermined by senior staff.”

    https://www.quora.com/How-soon-will-Trump-supporters-lose-faith-in-his-ability-to-improve-their-lives/answer/Steve-Grocott-5?srid=uSxtk

  15. The left protest about Trump, but they’re strangely silent about King Raedwald’s invasion of Northumbria in AD 616

    😆

    Love social media for gems like this!! Thanks Charles, love your work 😀

  16. poroti @ #152 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 9:57 pm

    If you have been up in the Pilbara then such antediluian views would be no surprise. After all it is the place that spawned Lang Hancock and wee Gina.
    Here is Lang Hancock in 1984 saying we should put sterilising agents in Aboriginal’s water supply. Bonus clips of various other bods around the nation expressing views that have never gone away.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMaRuk6pGOc

    Yes, I see what you mean. Makes One Nation seem quite sane by comparison.

  17. Zoidlord

    Fcuk the WA voters. As soon as the mining boom hit they went feck Labor we love the selfish message of the Libs. So sad that CUBS ( cashed up bogans) and all the rest are finding that the bill for the party must now be paid. At which point they discover Labor’s message.

  18. The left protest about Trump, but they’re strangely silent about King Raedwald’s invasion of Northumbria in AD 616

    Raedwald out of Northumbia NOW (if you’re still there).

  19. Mikel Jollett ‏@Mikel_Jollett 13h13 hours ago

    White nationalist who murdered 6 at Quebec mosque has killed more than all refugees from all ban countries combined.

  20. Fulvio

    SLane asked ” now that you’ve walked away from the ASs going to USA, will you settle them here?”

    The PM in waiting said “I haven’t walked away from ASs going to USA”, looking at her, and said no more. Shortest answer in the forum. Not what SL was expecting, having considered herself the cat that caught the rat whilst asking her oh-so-classy (not) gotcha.

  25. The Pilbara taught me
    1. a deeper understanding of the colour red
    2. An appreciation of the immense colour spectrum of sunsets
    3. What a Skimpy is.
    4. How big hammerhead sharks can get.

  27. Doug Heye ‏@DougHeye 9h9 hours ago

    Doug Heye Retweeted Sudeep Reddy

    This is not only out of bounds for any staffer, but the NDA/secrecy goes against Separation of Powers.

  28. I like Bill’s formulation: “No I am not walking away from it at all, I expect it to be honoured”

    A very succinct way to say:
    – blow it out your arse Sabraa, boats is a dead issue and we ain’t falling for it.
    – we didn’t make the mess
    – we aren’t the ones crowing about some deal whose details we can’t talk about
    – we aren’t the ones prostrating ourselves for Trump to try and get him to let it through
    – we know full well that just because Turnbull says the deal’s still on means nothing
    – we also know that even if the deal is on the terms means no refugees have to be resettled.
    – so we’re quite happy to sit back and let the Libs solve the problem of what to do with these people if they can (means one less really ugly problem for me if they do)
    – and if it does all fall to shit after all the hoo-ha Turnbull and Dutton have gone on with well we’ll let that failure speak for itself

  30. Elise Viebeck ‏@eliseviebeck 10h10 hours ago

    The number of people affected by Trump’s travel ban: About 90,000

    Bradd Jaffy ‏@BraddJaffy 15h15 hours ago

    Boris Johnson argues Trump’s visit shouldn’t be canceled—because the queen previously entertained 2 brutal dictators
    http://bbc.in/2k9h32x

    Elise Viebeck ‏@eliseviebeck 16h16 hours ago

    Q: What about the detained 5yo? Spicer: To assume that because of someone’s age or gender they don’t pose a threat is “misguided and wrong”

    Do you Trump apologists really think you need to see “policies” ?

    Fuck no.

  34. i really dislike the yank use of z in place of the proper s. wankers.
    And they invaded a country under false pretenses while telling me I was aiding terrorism if i opposed it
    fuckheadz

  35. nicholas @ #182 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 10:26 pm

    Labor is setting itself up for poor economic management the next time it is in government. It would be nice if Labor supporters had a modicum of awareness of realistic alternatives to neoliberal dogma.
    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=35268

    Jeez Nicholas, are PB and Bill Mitchell’s blog the only web sites you ever visit?

    You really need to get out more. Or at least try downloading some porn or something.

  37. I watched bits of Shortens speech and all of the journalists queastions. I must say the press gallery denizens are mightily unimpressive. Like a group of primary school kids asking the obvious questions with little thought or passion and zero interest in any real values.
    The eventual extinction of this “profession” will be a little loss to the world.

  40. Anyone who says that a federal government surplus gives the federal government more spending capacity than a deficit doesn’t know what they are talking about.
    I wonder where these deluded souls think that the non-government sector gets Australian dollars from. The AUD fairy? Does the Reserve Bank Governor dig them out of the backyard?

  45. nicholas @ #190 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 10:32 pm

    Anyone who says that a federal government surplus gives the federal government more spending capacity than a deficit doesn’t know what they are talking about.
    I wonder where these deluded souls think that the non-government sector gets Australian dollars from. The AUD fairy? Does the Reserve Bank Governor dig them out of the backyard?

    On second thoughts, forget I mentioned porn. I don’t think it would be legal at your age.

  47. I always thought you were a whingeing twat, Don, and comments like this one you made a little earlier prove it:

    It is ten times faster than the copper based adsl (something like that) which I had before, which fell over when it rained, and is one half the price. I’ve got VOIP phone service at very reasonable rates, but we may switch to mobile only pretty soon, which would be more economical.

    Suits me pretty well.

    With a proper (i.e Labor, fiber) NBN you’d be on 100m Bits down and 40 mBits up. That your limited brain can’t tell the difference between that and what you’re bragging “suits you” is what’s driving the present “NBN” company to layer lies upon lies to the gullible, suggestible rabble, grateful for a few crumbs of blog traffic like yourself (or whining about the “Crikey Gremlins” at every fucking opportunity).

    Make your idiot mind up.

  49. Ratsak

    Are you trying to do Nicholas out of a job? I reckon Bill Mitchell pays him per post. How is Nicholas going to pay his school fees if you make him redundant?

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