Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The only pollster to have reported so far this year finds One Nation reaching double figures, amid an otherwise stable set of results on voting intention.

The steady ascent of One Nation continues in this week’s fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which finds the party up a point to 10% to surpass the Greens, down one to 9%, with the Coalition, Labor and Nick Xenophon Team steady on 35%, 37% and 3%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 54-46.

The poll also finds Australia’s “current political and economic system” is deemed in need of fundamental change by 40%, refinement by 44%, and no change by 6%. There are also familiar findings about who does and doesn’t pay enough tax (61% say mining companies pay too little, 72% the same for large international companies, and religious organisations come in at 58%). Sixty per cent rated that higher tax on multinational companies would be good for the economy, versus 11% for bad.

On trade, 47% say free trade agreements are, generally speaking, a good thing for Australia, versus 15% for bad – which I’m a bit surprised by given other recent trade-related findings. Fifty-two per cent thought Australia should pursue a Trans-Pacific Partnership type agreement without the United States, versus only 19% who thought it should pull out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Btw on the “PR” side of the ledger, I have always been concerned by “stilted oratory” to a degree but there are times when it can humanise him. He seems very genuine and serious, but also lacking pretension in a way so any coaching work he’s obviously undertaken so far has possibly been along those lines? Work to your strengths etc

  2. Wow Essential just keeps blowing out!

    And listening to the news driving home from work Turnbull is copping even more stick for not taking a stronger stand against Trump’s muslim ban. A colleague was saying what Trump did is no different to what Australia does with AS, however the primary difference is that you are only refused entry to Australia if you arrive undocumented by boat. In Trump’s America, even those who arrive documented and by air with requisite visas are denied entry if they meet the EO 7 country criteria.

  3. With regard to todays DV murder in QLD, how the fuck can you be let out on bail ( being in gaol in the first place for choking your partner) without your ex partner being told ?

  4. Katharine Murphy
    45 mins ·
    Both in temper and in content, Bill Shorten has begun the political year absolutely on the zeitgeist, hence his brimming confidence.
    Labor is talking about the issues that people are concerned about, in a way they can actually connect with.
    But Shorten is not a diagnostic physician, abstractly plotting the ailments of the body politic, he’s a protagonist and a participant. He’s the person who is going to have to deliver the style of politics he’s championing.
    If politics is about people, and about connections, Shorten’s challenge for 2017 is not only validating the concerns of voters angry enough to propel Donald Trump to the White House, to Brexit and to vote for Pauline Hanson – but to persuade them to make a durable connection with him.
    He’s got to persuade them that he’s prime ministerial material. And he’s got to instil confidence in his colleagues that he’s the leader who can ultimately close the deal and get Labor back into power.
    Shorten has to be the leader who can galvanise the base but not be its creature. He has to hold the party’s progressive flank (under pressure from the Greens) and its working-class flank (being courted aggressively by the nostalgia merchants of One Nation) – and speak compellingly to the swinging voters – at a time when voters are looking for alternatives to the major parties.
    If politics is in the grip of an epic disruption, if major party politics in Australia is in structural decline, if there is a resurgence of populism, the big question facing the Labor leader at the beginning of 2017 is: will the times suit him?
    Shorten looks like a politician with the belief that he’s found his moment, which is a more than useful starting point. But the field evidence suggests voters, thus far, are not convinced.
    The Labor leader managed to get in front of Tony Abbott on one crude and incomplete yet still pertinent measure – Newspoll’s preferred prime minister rating – but he has not yet managed to pull in front of Turnbull.

    1. Shorten is a way more authentic leader than Turnbull, who has managed to trash every credibility he had with voters.

    2. PPM is irrelevant as an indicator of which party will form govt.

    3. I do not see analogies between our election when it comes, and what happened in the US with Trump (or even brexit). Principally because a) we have mandatory voting which means parties are pitching to the mainstream not their base and b) we have a vastly different electoral system.

  5. ‘Teresa the Appeaser’ living up to her moniker. I agree with Latika whose commentary on Trump’s presidency has been cautious at best, if not downright disapproving.

    Latika M Bourke
    1 hr ·
    “Buckingham Palace expressed private dismay yesterday, making clear that it was unhappy about the perception that the Queen was being dragged into a political event.” No denying that Trump’s visit will be heavily protested putting the Queen squarely in the middle.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/trump-visit-will-hurt-the-queen-may-is-told-n9mtdfgwg

  6. confessions @ #108 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 8:23 pm

    The Labor leader managed to get in front of Tony Abbott on one crude and incomplete yet still pertinent measure – Newspoll’s preferred prime minister rating – but he has not yet managed to pull in front of Turnbull.

    Murphy is just making up bullshit ‘tests’ that Shorten has to pass. She’s obviously worried.

  7. Boerwar

    Yes, as you say Mr Shorten did an excellent hatchet job on Sabra Lane. Straight between the eyes and you could feel/see the reality of it dawning on the rest of the journos in the following couple of seconds …… and on her, still standing, although our view was from the back.

    After he said his 3 or 5 dismissive words he just looked her in the eye.

    She is a dumbo, but not so dumb I think, as to misinterpret his direct message to her “you are a dumbo”. Tonight I’m sure she knows that she has been expertly dissed on national TV in front of her colleagues …. and feeling just a tinge embarrassed.

  8. Must be tough being the queen – poor Liz.

    On important matters does anyone have polling for Mt Lawley, Morley, Collie-Preston or Wanneroo they could share ta!

  9. P1:

    PPM is always used by the media to ‘balance’ reporting of poor polls for the govt of the day, esp if that govt is a coalition govt. Who can forget Dennis Shanahan’s circa 2007 effort for eg?

  10. Murphy is right about one thing absolutely – Shorten won’t survive the voters detecting even a whiff of hypocrisy. He’s actually staking his reputation on cleaning up the “business as usual” and he’ll be held to account for it.

  11. I received an email from Change.org with a petition on the closure of Hazelwood Power Station, the initiator being one Russell Northe.
    I read it carefully and although cloaked in concern for the workers, it also threw in some stuff like “security of supply will be threatened and the cost of electricity will increase for consumers” and “Premier we call upon you to at least commit to a gradual closure of Hazelwood whilst consideration is given to new base load power generation in Victoria.”
    I smelled a rat. The name rang a bell.

    Sure enough, Russell Northe is the Nationals member for Morwell.

    The petition is here if you want to read it. I didn’t sign and I urge you not to.

    https://www.change.org/p/daniel-andrews-premier-don-t-ignore-latrobe-valley-and-hazelwood-workers?utm_source=action_alert_sign&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=705824&alert_id=wnISwdeNiC_64Ab1xXzfB6fo3MNVuCwfXINZwnUSWcaE4hLi4tyBKY%3D

  12. Jeff Sessions is just as dangerous as Steve Bannon. It is likely he was the co-instigator of Trump’s Muslim ban EO. He has previously stated that he is “open to a Muslim ban.” And if anyone has any doubt about his true racist sentiments, note that he is a big with white nationalists on Twitter and has appeared on Breitbart News over 200 times.

    http://www.alternet.org/right-wing/12-reasons-jeff-sessions-should-never-be-attorney-general

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/01/jeff-sessions-close-ties-white-nationalists-twitter

  13. It is likely he was the co-instigator of Trump’s Muslim ban EO.

    It’s been reported he had a “heavy hand” in crafting it.

  14. Bill Shorten started talking about the stuff Murphy says he picked up from Trump waaaay before Trump was visible in the rear view mirror of global politics. That’s why he sounds genuine. It’s who he is.

  15. Shift and others re shorten. All good pints you make.
    FWIW
    1. I listened, not watched.
    2. Yes, it’s a plus he doesn’t sound like a lawyer.
    3. I need to remind myself when I listen to him that it’s not me he needs to convince. So whilst I might wish he didn’t say “aaaahhhhh” so much and occasionally leave a sentence dangling in the incomprehensible… it may not bother others.
    Certainly, there were several times he was on fire..nailing it in content and delivery.

    And I think he did enough to earn (more?) respect from the CPG.

  16. The worst thing about Jeff Sessions is that he looks harmless. He has cultivated that sort of gormless benign expression that many on the Extreme Right now use to disarm our defenses against them.

  17. Shiftaling:

    This isn’t anything to do with Shorten or Murphy’s commentary. But on issues voters want, it’s interesting to note that in the US Republican governors whose govts trashed their economies (Indiana’s was beyond trashed), didn’t wind up being an impediment to their re-election. It’s like the polar opposite of here.

  18. Poroti
    Thankle you, was suffering bagpipe deprivation too. I wondered as wa s in 2011, Trump chucked him a few dollars,like Malcolm Turnbull did to the h9meless man!

  19. I noticed on RCP that Obama finished his term with an approval rating flourish…up to +20.
    I also notice Trump started his with a good baseline measure of 0.

  20. Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 42m42 minutes ago
    Have you got your tweet in today downplaying any difference between current US prez & predecessor? Assert equivalence, impress your friends.

    Lol am guessing this is aimed at the Greens and their fellow travelers as much as it is rightwing reactionaries.

    The reality is that with each passing day we are exposed to Trump and his cronies, people long for the Obama years with their stability, maturity, professionalism and just plain all-round competence.

  21. So for those of us (well, me) who didn’t see, and won’t get the chance to, Shorten’s visceration of Sabraa “look at me, look at me!” Lane, what was the essence of it, question and answer?

  22. On Steve Bannon:

    Elliott Lusztig ‏@ezlusztig 11h11 hours ago
    How did we end up in a situation where an alcoholic wife abusing racist anti-Semite is running our foreign policy? I mean: WTF America?

  23. I’m no monarchist, but i am quite pissed off that Trumps people have threatened he will “erupt” if pinned on climate change by HRH Charlie. I mean FFS, just who do they think they are ? Trump is so weak and incompetent that he cant deal politely with a possible disagreement with one of his hosts?

    And yup, the protest thing is going to be difficult for Her Maj to deal with but if SHE says anything Trump doesn’t like then he had better STFU and wear it with a grin.

  24. b.c. @ #2164 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:20 pm

    Player One Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:01 pm

    Jeez. You feel like throwing stuff at the screen and screaming about half way through. Way to piss off regional Australians who already have the NBN and know it is utter crap.

    I have the NBN and it’s good. But then my NBN connection is FTTP. 🙂

    I have fixed wireless NBN from activ8me, there is a rectangular antenna on the roof. It is nominally 25/5, more often 20/4, but it works very reliably indeed.

    It is ten times faster than the copper based adsl (something like that) which I had before, which fell over when it rained, and is one half the price. I’ve got VOIP phone service at very reasonable rates, but we may switch to mobile only pretty soon, which would be more economical.

    Suits me pretty well.

  25. confessions @ #118 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 8:48 pm

    This is just so depressing.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/01/30/congress-can-now-start-erasing-some-of-obamas-environmental-rules-heres-what-theyre-targeting/?tid=sm_fb&utm_term=.9afcd580b87a
    What was I saying earlier about conservatives putting party and individual interests ahead of the interests of the country? Mitigating AGW is arguably the best eg of this.

    Agreed. Overturning regulations like these basically amounts to sacrificing your own citizens just to improve the profitability of a few fossil fuel companies …

    The first is a regulation finalized in mid-November that seeks to curb fugitive methane emissions from oil and gas drilling operations on public lands. And the second, a last-minute rule adopted in December, prohibits coal-mining companies from engaging in any activities that could permanently pollute streams and other sources of drinking water.

  26. Rhys Muldoon ‏@rhysam 2m2 minutes ago

    Rhys Muldoon Retweeted Sky News

    With bonus “Look at the nice white boy who killed 6 Muslims”.

  27. Jeez, this WA One Nation candidate is a real winner …

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-31/wa-election-pilbara-one-nation-david-archibald-single-mothers/8227960

    David Archibald wrote a Quadrant article nominating “lifestyle choices that could be defunded”.

    “The first that springs to mind is single motherhood,” Mr Archibald wrote.

    “These are women too lazy to attract and hold a mate, undoing the work of possibly 3 million years of evolutionary pressure.

    “This will result in a rapid rise in the portion of the population that is lazy and ugly.

    I reckon we may have just found out Colton’s real name!

  28. “I’m no monarchist……”

    With the Executive Orders that a US Prisident can sign at any time and their subjects obey, as an example, the US of A is far more a monarchy than the UK or Australia.

  29. Another journo asked why 457 visas were high under Labor and was too clever by half adding wtte “please answer without referencing the mining boom”. Response was immediate: “The mining boom!”

    He’s got their measure – somewhat similar to Turnbull in more confident times rebuffing Alan Jones (I think) demand that he take dictation

  30. My lasting impression of the shorten event today was how ordinary the questions were.

    The gallery members seem to enjoy their minute of fame and launch into a great preamble which is basically an expression of their opinion and the they asked if Shorten agreed. Which he rarely did.

    Why not cut to the chase? Do you think Trump is a danger to western civilisation as we know it?

    It I was there tomorrow I would ask Turnbull: is today Wednesday?

    I suspect the answer would start off : Thank you Sabra for the question, you raise an interesting issue there. Wednesday is the day of the week following Tuesday and before Thursday. According to international standard ISO 8601 adopted in most western countries it is the third day of the week. In countries that use the Sunday-first convention Wednesday is defined as the fourth day of the week. It is the fourth day of the week in the Judeo-Christian calendar as well, and was defined so in the ancient Mesopotamian and biblical calendars. The name is derived from Old English Wōdnesdæg and Middle English Wednesdei, “day of Woden”, reflecting the pre-Christian religion practiced by the Anglo-Saxons. In other languages, such as the French mercredi, the day’s name is a calque of dies Mercurii “day of Mercury”. It has the most letters out of all the Gregorian calendar days. However, under Labor ….”

  31. Celtic societies had “elected” kings. Monarchies do not have to be decided by family birth.

    The USA is an elected monarchy.

  32. I mean FFS, just who do they think they are ?

    Well in theory Trump is Liz’s equivalent as head of state and the anti monarchist in me can’t help but find a modicum of fascination with how an unstable, incompetent Trump responds to her.

  33. Labor is subscribing to the same destructive myth that the federal government has a budget constraint, the myth that fiscal surpluses increase the spending power of the federal government, the myth that federal deficit spending must be accompanied by debt issuance etc etc. Heaps of money to bail out financial institutions and subsidize rich people, never enough money for socially useful things that we have the real capacity to do . If Labor returns to government, it will be stuck in an ideological straitjacket of its own design. It won’t be able to make the quality of our society fundamentally better. All it will be able to do is claim that it is managing the decline more compassionately than the conservatives would be doing. That isn’t enough. Expect continued economic and social decline and continued political instability even if the awful Coalition Government is thrown out.

  34. I just watched Lane’s question and Bills answer.
    The question was on the US deal for the asylum seekers.
    The question wtte
    Having just walked away from the deal on the 2000 aslyum seekers,what will happen to then? Where will they go, to Australia the mainland?
    Bills answer very short
    “No I am not walking away from it at all, I expect it to be honoured”

    Total silence in the room…..

  35. Overturning regulations like these basically amounts to sacrificing your own citizens just to improve the profitability of a few fossil fuel companies …

    And I knew a Republican White House would be bad for the environment and climate change, but I didn’t think they’d reverse Obama’s executive orders on the issue.

    President Trump has been waaaaay worse than I thought he’d be. And I already thought he’d be pretty regressive.

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