Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The only pollster to have reported so far this year finds One Nation reaching double figures, amid an otherwise stable set of results on voting intention.

The steady ascent of One Nation continues in this week’s fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which finds the party up a point to 10% to surpass the Greens, down one to 9%, with the Coalition, Labor and Nick Xenophon Team steady on 35%, 37% and 3%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 54-46.

The poll also finds Australia’s “current political and economic system” is deemed in need of fundamental change by 40%, refinement by 44%, and no change by 6%. There are also familiar findings about who does and doesn’t pay enough tax (61% say mining companies pay too little, 72% the same for large international companies, and religious organisations come in at 58%). Sixty per cent rated that higher tax on multinational companies would be good for the economy, versus 11% for bad.

On trade, 47% say free trade agreements are, generally speaking, a good thing for Australia, versus 15% for bad – which I’m a bit surprised by given other recent trade-related findings. Fifty-two per cent thought Australia should pursue a Trans-Pacific Partnership type agreement without the United States, versus only 19% who thought it should pull out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. WWP:

    You’re absolutely right. So many American voters still believe it even though the Reagan era economic policies have left the US with deeply entrenched income inequality, which is becoming even more evident over the years. And more especially when Republican state governors and legislatures implement trickle down policies and wind up practically bankrupting their states (hello! Kansas??), only to get voted in again by voters!! Crazy.

  2. WWP

    I thought the ACCI’s effort on means testing on residences for pensions yesterday signals a bit of ‘dog eats dog’ coming up.

  3. The one positive from the Ryan hanging was that there was so much uproar Australia wide that it led to the end of capital punishment in Australia.

  8. Pretty light piece on Ronald Ryan in the Guardian. To say the evidence was weak without explanation flies somewhat in the face of an unsuccessful appeal to the Full Court of the Victorian Supreme Court and an apparent application to the High Court.
    Plus the reference to the child of the victim did not mention whether an interview was sought and the circumstances of her disdain for the death penalty were not identified.

  9. davidwh:

    Yes, that is a good outcome. Incidentally that Guardian article poroti linked to shows capital punishment had all but ended 16 years beforehand in Victoria anyways:

    Judicial executions had become rare and public support for capital punishment was in decline. Since 1951, all thirty-five capital cases in Victoria had been commuted.

    It makes Bolte’s obsession with seeing him hang even more inexplicable and esp given that even today it isn’t clear who shot the prison guard.

    I’d like to see mandatory sentencing go the same way as the death penalty.

  10. shellbell:

    What is your view of Trump’s Supreme Court pick? On the face of it he seems qualified, if somewhat young for an appointee, and obviously with the deeply rightwing views on certain matters.

  11. Confessions
    He obviously has ability but flexible ethics, to put it nicely, if he is willing to be paraded around like he was at the White House.
    Funny how saturated we are in things American but their law has barely penetrated here. Michael Kirby, in my time, was the only HC judge who wanted to be told about American law.

  12. Interesting item on the Ronald Ryan hanging on ABC RN recently. Bolte had been thwarted by the High Court some years before when trying to hang a mentally incompetent murderer and was obsessed with hanging someone. Ryan suited his requirement and he proceeded post haste.

  14. Shellbell:

    Funny how saturated we are in things American but their law has barely penetrated here.

    What do you mean by this? My own (legally unqualified) opinion is that we seem to be imitating all things American.

  15. Bolte had been thwarted by the High Court some years before when trying to hang a mentally incompetent murderer and was obsessed with hanging someone.

    The Guardian article speculated that it was to do Laura Norder tough talk in the face of coming elections. Which at the state level anyways were some 2 years off, therefore doesn’t jive with me. I guess we’ll never know for sure since the man’s dead.

  22. He obviously has ability but flexible ethics, to put it nicely, if he is willing to be paraded around like he was at the White House.

    trump and Co have become a continuous {pathetic} TV show.

    Its one episode after another, day after day.

  23. The Wikipedia article on Ronald Ryan leaves little doubt that Ryan killed the guard.

    His final letter to his kids said that he did not kill anyone intentionally. And Wikipedia states that Ryan admitted to the gaol governor and to a nun that he killed the guard but did not do so intentionally.

    When you read the very long list of armed robberies and B and Es he committed over many years, he was someone who was not averse to frightening the life out of others by waving guns in their faces. Respect for the law and the rights of others amounted to zero.

    Having all this in mind, his hanging was purely a political decision by Bolte, and for that reason ( and many others) the death penalty is thankfully gone.

  24. ItzaDream
    I read that in The Age earlier today and I have a growing feeling, I suppose, that the US is going to fracture. McGeough has been writing some interesting pieces on the US and seems to have his finger on what is going on and what’s developing.
    I think places like New York and California just won’t cop 4 years of Trump and his cabal and Trump will have ever more tantrums when he’s challenged by the judiciary that will promptly be leaked to the press, prompting more tantrums.

  26. Also, Bannon is the one who really scares the bejeebus out of me. He’s spoiling for more war and there’s no shortage of possible targets. In 2 short weeks, they’ve already threatened Mexico and the ME ….again. Not to mention the power Trump has given him on the Security Council.

  27. ML,
    It reads to me that there is no end to the amount of entropy that Bannon will not revel in. (Is that a doubt negative ? – sounds right but looks wrong, but you know what I mean).

    Kay Jay
    I’m in Vietnam – middle of the Mekong delta. Internet just fine thanks. Better by quanta than anything down there. Agile and innovative Turnbull Trunballs Whoever my arse.

  28. Kay Jay
    Not currently having internet problems, however, we have proper FTTP and aren’t with Telstra (thank the lord and pass the ammunition).
    BTW
    Have you finished your vacuuming, floor mopping, lawn mowing and the like for the day? Did you find time to get in an afternoon nap? And is the regimental dog enjoying the aircon?

  29. poroti @ #2125 Saturday, February 4, 2017 at 6:48 pm

    KayJay

    Is anybody else having internet problems.

    Only people whose interwebby things go through Telstra intertubes. Apparently there was a fire recently which caused a spot of bother. Either that or the current fall back de jour it’s the bloody Russians.
    Apparently this was the scene of the place the probs started.
    https://twitter.com/Corrie_Ander_/status/827014780711903232/photo/1

    Praise the Lord ❗
    I knew, just knew there would be a testical guy who could answer my prayers.
    Please find attached address to collect 14,000,000 dollars from my Nigerian Princess Imelda the voluptuous. Please note also that said princess has many charms and will detail them to you given half a chance and $400.
    Bless you.
    Where did you get that hat mess of wires. It vaguely resembles what I laughingly (ha de ha) describe as my computer desk.
    Internet working again. Using old modem. I will plug in best modem soon and possibly then practice my rude word vocabulary.
    Gold stars for you. ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇

  30. ML:

    Trump was always going to be a danger in his own right. That he isn’t surrounding himself with people who can give him sane, much less rational advice, is truly disturbing.

  31. Monica Lynagh

    You are wise to be scared of Bannon. He is a Dominionist and Trump has several of them on board. Theocracy here we is a comin’.

    On the bright side the “bring on the end times” ‘Christian Zionists’ have not been mentioned yet amongst Trumps appointees. …………. 🙁

  32. ItzaDream
    Well if he thinks he’s like Lenin and wants to pull down the whole shebang, I think they’ve made a cracker of a start.
    BTW, what are you doing in Vietnam, if you don’t mind me enquiring?

  33. monica lynagh @ #2128 Saturday, February 4, 2017 at 6:57 pm

    Kay Jay
    Not currently having internet problems, however, we have proper FTTP and aren’t with Telstra (thank the lord and pass the ammunition).
    BTW
    Have you finished your vacuuming, floor mopping, lawn mowing and the like for the day? Did you find time to get in an afternoon nap? And is the regimental dog enjoying the aircon?

    I have done all the items you describe plus others. I have done lots of lawn edging which stuffs (medical term) my right shoulder for a couple of days.
    I always have the afternoon nap, just can’t stay awake.
    As a result of a letter I wrote to the Newcastle council I am best friends with the team leader of the gangs building the new concrete footpath along our street. I have a little concrete pad from the path to my front gate. This was requested by one of the Coles delivery guys. Oh frabjous day.
    We, the regimental dog and I have made it to the Council Newsletter and the Newcastle Herald.
    The photograph of Abbee, the regimental dog and I, is wonderful, Abbee looks much more impressive that I.
    Finally, we are having a thunderstorm here in Newcastle and the regimental dog is taking the opportunity of making sure that all is well in her air conditioned bedroom which she shares with me.
    We will have fibre to the node quite soon and will then be entitled to envy you and damn the torpedoes. Make sense of that if you will.
    Love and kisses.
    ♡♡

  36. fess & Poroti
    I think that the close coterie Trump has around him, plus Trump himself, is going to cause the US to fracture. I can’t see it ending any other way.
    The Sec of Defence and Intel getting sidelined on the Security Council (don’t call us, we’ll call you), with Bannon installed as head honcho, would have set the hares running, at the very least.

  37. So, as I know this question will arise – can the US Federal Court charge the POTUS with contempt of Court?

    We all know the question is going to be asked once the child throws it’s tantrum and lashes out on twitter….

    Tom.

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