Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The only pollster to have reported so far this year finds One Nation reaching double figures, amid an otherwise stable set of results on voting intention.

The steady ascent of One Nation continues in this week’s fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which finds the party up a point to 10% to surpass the Greens, down one to 9%, with the Coalition, Labor and Nick Xenophon Team steady on 35%, 37% and 3%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 54-46.

The poll also finds Australia’s “current political and economic system” is deemed in need of fundamental change by 40%, refinement by 44%, and no change by 6%. There are also familiar findings about who does and doesn’t pay enough tax (61% say mining companies pay too little, 72% the same for large international companies, and religious organisations come in at 58%). Sixty per cent rated that higher tax on multinational companies would be good for the economy, versus 11% for bad.

On trade, 47% say free trade agreements are, generally speaking, a good thing for Australia, versus 15% for bad – which I’m a bit surprised by given other recent trade-related findings. Fifty-two per cent thought Australia should pursue a Trans-Pacific Partnership type agreement without the United States, versus only 19% who thought it should pull out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. I want to know what Turnbull intends to do about the flood of American illegal refugee boat people getting ready to cross the Pacific to seek political asylum here.

    Extreme vetting will not be enough,and we should be emptying Nauru and Manus Island to accomodate them.

  2. The House numbers for SSM would include Labor, Bandt, Wilkie, McGowan and probably Sharkie. So as few as 3 Libs exercising their rights would be enough to pass a reform bill through the House. The Senate would likely pass a bill very easily.

    The LNP would be crazy to try to obstruct this. Doubtless they will.

  3. briefly Saturday, February 4, 2017 at 2:55 pm

    The House numbers for SSM would include Labor, Bandt, Wilkie, McGowan and probably Sharkie. So as few as 3 Libs exercising their rights would be enough to pass a reform bill through the House. The Senate would likely pass a bill very easily.

    The LNP would be crazy to try to obstruct this. Doubtless they will.

    ************************************************

    ‘Betrayal’: Conservative Coalition MPs push back on same-sex marriage free vote

    Tensions within the government over same-sex marriage have erupted again with conservative MPs warning Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull that allowing a free vote on this issue would be a “betrayal” of the Coalition’s election commitments.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/betrayal-conservative-coalition-mps-push-back-on-samesex-marriage-free-vote-20170204-gu5hz4.html

  4. Malcolm’s going to be forced to demonstrate some of the so called “mettle” Laurie Oakes delighted in writing all about last night and effectively reject the position of one of these two opposing groups. Two questions: which one is he most beholden to and which one has the resolve to push back with feel? He spurns the right wingers and potentially two or three of them break away and destabilise the government. He snubs the progressives and they potentially cross the floor and delegitimise the government anyway. This is an incredible predicament.

  5. noisywoman ‏@noisywoman · 33m33 minutes ago

    Unemployed for more than 2 years and your dole gets cut.
    Could you survive? #auspol #wapol pic.twitter.com/CxPlJyBplj

    I think this is Hanson’s idea. Includes older people who can’t get employment because of age barrier.

  6. For you Donald fans :

    Hong Kong doll maker creates replica of US President Donald Trump

    A Hong Kong doll maker with a history of creating figurines of controversial world leaders has launched a replica of US President Donald Trump.

    The 30.5 centimetre figure comes with a red “Make America Great Again” cap and presidential podium as well as two removable heads with different facial expressions.

    While some users registered excitement after ordering the doll, others ridiculed it.

    “What a waste of your time and plastic! Does it come with a white hood and robes?” one Facebook user commented.

    “Good lord they need to keep these things sealed up,” said another, adding that the doll’s hands were “too big”, referring to descriptions of Mr Trump having small hands.

    Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/world/2017/02/04/15/05/hong-kong-doll-maker-creates-replica-of-us-president-donald-trump#SXSSzeOHhDE0TsP7.99

  7. Trump White House Blows A Gasket After Crushing Defeat On Muslim Ban

    The Trump White House did not react well to a federal judge’s order blocking their Muslim travel ban nationwide.

    The Trump White House is selling this Executive Order as protection, but there have been no terrorist attacks committed in the United States committed by an immigrant from any of the banned countries.

    The Trump White House has quickly taken on the character of its boss. When something doesn’t go his way, Trump fills the air with indignant outrage.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/03/trump-white-house-blows-gasket-crushing-defeat-muslim-ban.html

  8. Poroti
    I remember seeing my Dad with tears in his eyes when Ronald Ryan was hanged.
    I had never seen him with tears in his eyes ever before or after.
    He thought that Ryan was innocent as did many others.

  9. Washington Post
    41 mins ·
    Vincent Viola, the billionaire founder of trading firm Virtu Financial, withdrew himself from consideration after, reports say, he found that distancing himself from his business ties proved too difficult.

    Goodness. A Trump nominee with ethical standards!

  10. [Hong Kong doll maker creates replica of US President Donald Trump

    A Hong Kong doll maker with a history of creating figurines of controversial world leaders has launched a replica of US President Donald Trump.]

    Looks like they’re recycling the George W face.

  11. mtbw

    I did not know he had kids, what a horrible scene this must have been.

    Fifty years ago, Jan, Wendy and Pip Ryan huddled in the lounge room of their Hawthorn home and waited for the state of Victoria to kill their father. Their mother, Dorothy, had turned off the radio and TV. ”

  12. Yes it was Bolte, and he was jonesing for Ryan’s hanging. He refused to commute his sentence to imprisonment even though there was a clear precedent over the past 10 years for doing so.

  13. MTBW:

    I remember reading an account of this some time ago. The jurors apparently had said at the time that if there was the slightest whiff he’d hang, they’d have found him guilty of manslaughter. Not only is Ryan’s death a lesson in the inhumanity of the death penalty, but also of the inflexibility of mandatory sentencing and how mandatory sentencing can result in way more deleterious outcomes.

  14. briefly:

    After the last two weeks of Trump’s presidency, the inexperienced, woefully unprepared cabinet picks, the crazy behaviour, the sheer ignorance of many in his team, and his obvious decision to rule by executive order rather than the parliament, I’m of the view that we should already be giving serious consideration to our remaining in the alliance!

  15. Good article from Matt Taibbi –

    Extreme Vetting, But Not for Banks

    Trump proves he is a tool for Wall Street after all

    Donald Trump, the man who positioned himself as the common man’s shield against Wall Street, signed a series of orders today calling for reviews or rollbacks of financial regulations.

    …Dimon, Schwarzman, Fink and Cohn collectively represent a rogues gallery of the creeps most responsible for the 2008 crash. It would be hard to put together a group of people less sympathetic to the non-wealthy.

    Trump’s approach to Wall Street is in sharp contrast to his tough-talking stances on terrorism. He talks a big game when slamming the door on penniless refugees, but curls up like a beach weakling around guys who have more money than he does.

    The two primary disasters in American history this century (if we’re not counting Trump’s election) have been 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis, which cost 8.7 million people their jobs and may have destroyed as much as 45 percent of the world’s wealth.

    Basically, we gave trillions of dollars to bail out the very actors who caused the mess. Now, with Trump’s election, we’ve triumphantly put those same actors back in charge of non-policing themselves.

    …..If we’re very lucky, it won’t crash soon. But can we at least put an end to the “drain the swamp” nonsense?

    Full article http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/extreme-vetting-but-not-for-banks-w464966

  16. Briefly

    Were this to occur, it’s difficult to see how Australia could remain in an alliance with the US.

    The LNP can explain away almost anything – Hunt, Pyne and their apprentice will be put to the task.

  17. dave:

    The reversal of those financial regulations was the first thing I expected President Trump to do. I’m only surprised he’s waited this long to act.

  18. Confessions

    here’s the bit about the jurors…

    Seven of the jurors wrote to Bolte’s cabinet pleading for mercy. One later told the Sun newspapers: “We didn’t want the rope. If we had known Ryan would hang, I think we would have gone for manslaughter.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/04/goodbye-my-darlings-remembering-the-trauma-of-australias-last-execution
    Bolte ?

    Herald Sun article about the Ryan case quoted Bolte’s notorious response to a journalist who had asked what the premier was doing at when the execution to place at 8am half a century ago: “One of the ‘S’s’, I suppose,” said Bolte. “A shit, a shave or a shower.”

  19. poroti:

    Thanks, I’ve just read the Guardian article, which aligns with my parents’ talk of how it went down and the public outcry.

    WTF are Barnaby and Christenson thinking in wanting to bring back the death penalty? Madness.

  20. ‘fess

    WTF are Barnaby and Christenson thinking in wanting to bring back the death penalty?

    What do you mean?

    They’re just being Barnaby and George as they always have been.

  21. TPOF:

    Today’s Republicans still hold firm to the belief that trickle down economics is the only proven way to raise living standards of the poor and disadvantaged, so I’d expected Trump would’ve wrapped the executive order up in some bullshit about removing red tape so more people can be employed or some such. You know, like Australian Liberals do whenever they talk about cutting taxes and pesky regulations for business.

  22. [Today’s Republicans still hold firm to the belief that trickle down economics is the only proven way to raise living standards of the poor and disadvantaged]

    I was reading an email for the CEO of an Australian business lobby group on Friday, and it isn’t just the repugs in the US that still believe in trickle down.

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