Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The only pollster to have reported so far this year finds One Nation reaching double figures, amid an otherwise stable set of results on voting intention.

The steady ascent of One Nation continues in this week’s fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which finds the party up a point to 10% to surpass the Greens, down one to 9%, with the Coalition, Labor and Nick Xenophon Team steady on 35%, 37% and 3%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 54-46.

The poll also finds Australia’s “current political and economic system” is deemed in need of fundamental change by 40%, refinement by 44%, and no change by 6%. There are also familiar findings about who does and doesn’t pay enough tax (61% say mining companies pay too little, 72% the same for large international companies, and religious organisations come in at 58%). Sixty per cent rated that higher tax on multinational companies would be good for the economy, versus 11% for bad.

On trade, 47% say free trade agreements are, generally speaking, a good thing for Australia, versus 15% for bad – which I’m a bit surprised by given other recent trade-related findings. Fifty-two per cent thought Australia should pursue a Trans-Pacific Partnership type agreement without the United States, versus only 19% who thought it should pull out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Does this result not suggest that Turnbull is losing votes to PHON as well as to Labor? Lee Rhianon and go’s rant against capitalism seems to have done the Green vote little good at a time when any remaining small l liberal voters might be looking around for a new home.

  2. Wonder what the write-ups of today’s NPC speech by Bill Shorten will say in light of results like these? Will the CPG start to see the writing on the wall for the Coalition government? I expect they may wait to see whether Turnbull knocks it out of the park tomorrow at the NPC (I know, I know 😉 ) and then respond accordingly.

  4. On trade, 47% say free trade agreements are, generally speaking, a good thing for Australia, versus 15% for bad – which I’m a bit surprised by given other recent trade-related findings.

    Complete conjecture on my part, but maybe it’s “Trump says it’s bad so it must be good”.

  5. Tom McIlroy ‏@TomMcIlroy 8h8 hours ago

    Rod Culleton’s staff asking journalists to call him “Senator Culleton”. He is no longer a senator. #auspol
    Matthew Miller ‏@matthewamiller 3h3 hours ago

    In our democracy, the president is not supposed to dictate to the AG how to interpret the law. This is a major breakdown in the rule of law.

  7. Isn’t WA Lib doing a deal with ON on preferences? If that’s the case I expect the feds will follow. Turnbull seems to enjoy doing deals with the right. Even if he doesn’t, the idea that Turnbull is a centrist has long gone.

  8. Refugee Council ‏@OzRefugeeCounc 27s27 seconds ago

    .@PeterDutton_MP is being urged to bring an unwell pregnant woman to safety in Australia:

  9. Greensborough Growler Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 4:07 pm

    momma,

    MOE!

    ***************************************************

    Not Gippsland’s Premiere Elite Town ??????
    MOE – Moccasins On Everyone

    …………. MOE – The great thing about MOE is that if there’s a nuclear attack it’ll look exactly the same afterwards.

  14. rossmcg Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 4:20 pm

    Twitter claims another hopeful

    *********************************************************

    Trump’s controversial national security advisor Michael Flynn appears to have deleted his Twitter account

    The retired Army lieutenant general was known for spreading conspiracy theories via Twitter, using his @GenFlynn account.

    For instance, days before the election, he retweeted articles published on right-wing blogs debunked as fake news that accused Clinton of everything from from “money laundering” to “sex crimes with children.”

    National Security Adviser Michael Flynn promised to follow in the footsteps of Colin Powell by considering views from across the government

    But the memo was striking in its reference to Powell, the former secretary of State who called Flynn a “right wing nutty” in a hacked e-mail sent to his son that was leaked last fall.

    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/michael-flynn-appears-to-have-deleted-his-twitter-account-2017-1?r=US&IR=T

  15. Previous thread
    Meher Baba
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 2:20 pm
    Trump is opening up a lot of fronts on which he is going to have to fight: not always a good idea, although I wouldn’t underestimate him.

    Hi MB,
    I liked the joke about the old bull and the young bull.

    However, I will continue to underestimate Trump. I underestimated Tony Abbott, but in the end he proved he never had it in him. The same will be true of Trump.

  16. The Age ‏@theage 1m1 minute ago

    BREAKING: Toyota staff are bracing to find out when the company plans to close its Altona plant.

  17. Guardian Australia ‏@GuardianAus 45s46 seconds ago

    Now is not the time to cut penalty rates for struggling workers | Jo-anne Schofield

  18. CBS host Stephen Colbert: Every day with Trump is another rollercoaster — and America just ‘can’t stop throwing up’

    “You ever regret going on vacation?” he continued. “‘Take the week off’ they said. ‘America will still be here when you get back,’ they said. How much could he do in a week?’”

    “You’ve got to give the guy credit. He can really get a lot of stuff undone. From Obamacare to climate change to torture, he’s already moved the country back to 2004.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/colbert-every-day-with-trump-is-another-rollercoaster-and-america-just-cant-stop-throwing-up/

  20. C@Tmomma from previous thread……………total piss take…………I have been coming here from some years now, and I am still trying to get the right touch for sarcasm…..!

  21. Paul Karp ‏@Paul_Karp 6m6 minutes ago

    Culleton basically arguing that absence of an order restoring his privileges as a Senator does not mean he isn’t a Senator #auspol

  25. Jay Mohr-Bell, a cattle station manager outside of Katherine, dismissed the ABC’s announcement. “The ABC fails to understand that their audience who listens to local ABC via shortwave do not ‘favour’ this service, this is their only available service,” he told Guardian Australia.

    “The ABC likes to be heard but fails to listen. Essentially the ABC is closing down the shortwave service and replacing it with nothing.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jan/30/abc-announces-transitional-measures-for-shortwave-radio-listeners?CMP=share_btn_tw

  27. I was just about to post to my sorority Γ Λ Κ (Gamma Lambda Kappa) when I saw that a sister, who isn’t in this sorority, has abandoned ship. Good luck, DTT.

    When I saw this bloody stupidity:

    PhoenixRED
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 4:18 pm

    …………. MOE – The great thing about MOE is that if there’s a nuclear attack it’ll look exactly the same afterwards.

    Oh, ha ha ha. Call a wambulance, me sides are splittin. Oh, hilarious.
    —-
    And, seriously folks, who gives a shit which way we thought the US election would go. It’s not as if any of us had a stake in it.

    So, if some Aussie supported Trump and some other Aussie supported Clinton, so the fuck what. We’re not to blame for the twats who voted for Trump (except maybe that troll, Colton).

    What about the inside info from his cop rellies (RCMP??) in Edmonston? he he he. What a dick.

  28. Bevan Shields ‏@BevanShields · 6h6 hours ago
    ABC says Tony Jones is on leave and won’t host this year. Emma Alberici back in May #auspol

  30. Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust 33s34 seconds ago

    #BREAKING: Toyota has confirmed it will close its Altona plant in Victoria on October 3, with 2600 jobs to be lost

  31. However, I will continue to underestimate Trump. I underestimated Tony Abbott, but in the end he proved he never had it in him. The same will be true of Trump.

    As with Abbott, it’s not a case of underestimating the man – both have (will) prove to be even more useless than their critics thought.

    It’s a case of overestimating the voters. (and I’ll continue to do so out of hope more than experience)

  37. Vogon Poet Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 5:26 pm
    Why did the ABC then feature him in their Monday nights are returning ad ?

    ********************************************
    Just to keep Adrian glued to the ABC in breathless anticipation ….. so he wont turn over to “I’m a Celebrity” or “MKR” ……..

  44. Those saying “not to underestimate” Donald or Tony or even Malcolm claimed that once they were in power there’d be a “pivot”, they’d “flip the switch” and show us that they were actually suitable governors.

    Just wait! Any day now… it will happen! And all you doubters will be proven wrong!

    Just wait! The pivot! It’s coming!

  45. CTar1
    an ex journo currently prominent politician may soon be available – although he would be more suitable cohosting 730.

    In fact he has already had quite a few trial runs in that role. He and Sales seem to get along fine.

  49. Oh ffs.

    Shorten has been ‘obsessed’ with jobs since his first day as Opposition Leader (and, arguably, all his life). Now commentators on ‘The Drum’ are implying that Shorten’s focus on jobs (and listening to people) is a reaction to Trump.

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