Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The only pollster to have reported so far this year finds One Nation reaching double figures, amid an otherwise stable set of results on voting intention.

The steady ascent of One Nation continues in this week’s fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which finds the party up a point to 10% to surpass the Greens, down one to 9%, with the Coalition, Labor and Nick Xenophon Team steady on 35%, 37% and 3%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 54-46.

The poll also finds Australia’s “current political and economic system” is deemed in need of fundamental change by 40%, refinement by 44%, and no change by 6%. There are also familiar findings about who does and doesn’t pay enough tax (61% say mining companies pay too little, 72% the same for large international companies, and religious organisations come in at 58%). Sixty per cent rated that higher tax on multinational companies would be good for the economy, versus 11% for bad.

On trade, 47% say free trade agreements are, generally speaking, a good thing for Australia, versus 15% for bad – which I’m a bit surprised by given other recent trade-related findings. Fifty-two per cent thought Australia should pursue a Trans-Pacific Partnership type agreement without the United States, versus only 19% who thought it should pull out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  5. Bushfire Bill

    And with FTTP at the flick of a switch, literally, the 100 Mb can become 1 GB and beyond. No “Up to” weasel required.

  6. One thing I noticed from today’s q&a with Shorten that the journos seemed uncertain/hesitant. They had trouble articulating their actual questions (several, like K Murphy) seemed not to know what her own question really was.

    I kinda got the impression that Shorten had been so clear and vehement in his presentation, and didn’t really ‘politic’ when he was speaking, that they were taken aback because they couldn’t just reel out the usual ‘gotchas’.

    He was answering questions and came across as direct (and dare I say authentic?) much of the time. Seemed to throw the scribes for a real loop.

  7. Drive through the outer suburbs of Perth.

    See the large patch of dead grass where the boat used to be parked. Look at the two triangle of scorched turf which onced supported the his and hers jet skis.

    Ponder the heavy air of despondency which pervails, and the odd broken window, dislodged roof tile and sagging gutter, which all call out the dispair of the occupants.

    Observe the beat up Honda in the driveway which once proudly housed the late model green Holden ute with matching hard tray cover.

    Gaze at the forlorn mortgagee sale sign at the front, moving in unison with the breeze and the sign next door, and the door after that, and the door after that.

    Half listen to the desultry conversation of the dead eyed housewives over the rickety dividing fences, the fences that their husbands had promised to repair in better times, before their world collapsed, before they left their children with the women they no longer loved, in the knowlege there would never be any return.

    This is my city, my State, my people, our Australia.

    I weep for you.

  10. “Tech firms back legal fight against Trumps travel ban.”

    Well of course they would.

    They are contemporary monopolists. Their wealth and power depends on preservation of the neo-liberal globalised monopoly (“free”) trade agreements and the ability to import cheap exploitable labour and to have unrestricted access and control of markets in every corner of the globe.

    Most “liberals” and progressives are no friends of the poor and working class. They just know that being hip generates more profits and power.

  12. US blog Lawyers Guns and Money gives a useful rundown of the legal absurdity of several of the Trump orders. Though I like this quote best:
    “I have a list of every friend who told me Hillary was just as bad as Trump and I read the list to myself every night like Arya Stark.”
    http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com

    Indeed. Anyone who condoned the rise to power of this madman should be ashamed.

  13. Refugee Council ‏@OzRefugeeCounc 3s4 seconds ago

    Refugee Council Retweeted Sam I Am

    Reports suggest she is still on #nauru and is still awaiting transfer

  15. David Brooks in the NYT……

    With most administrations you can agree sometimes and disagree other times. But this one is a danger to the party and the nation in its existential nature. And so sooner or later all will have to choose what side they are on, and live forever after with the choice.

  19. This from earlier:

    “The left protest about Trump, but they’re strangely silent about King Raedwald’s invasion of Northumbria in AD 616”

    Sounds like something Gerard Henderson would say at the end of Insiders

  20. Indeed. Anyone who condoned the rise to power of this madman should be ashamed.

    Yep and even worse those who firmly asserted Trump was the safer pair of hands on national security. Wonder how they feel now.

  22. Confessions

    Yep and even worse those who firmly asserted Trump was the safer pair of hands on national security. Wonder how they feel now.

    If I had been asserting that on a blog I would be too embarrassed to stick around. I wouldn’t admit that I was wrong I would just leave in a pretend fit of pique.

  26. Good to see your return, Bushfire Bill!! This blog is much the poorer for your absence .
    My eyes lit up at the sight of the sunny cockatoo .

  27. Next couple of days we’ll see some likely outrageous appointment to the Supreme Court and withdrawal from the Paris agreement.
    Then what?
    If reports are correct that the ego has grown since the inauguration, there will be a huge desire to remain front and centre in the news.

    I see Bannon as an anarchist. We have seen plenty of psych profiles of Trump that seem to easily nail his makeup. I’ve read backgrounders on Bannon but not seen anything that provides a guide to the endgame of that particular creature.

  28. Norwester

    These should give you an idea of Bannon’s endgame. Apologies for so many links.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/01/30/two-theories-about-why-steve-bannon-midwifed-such-a-bad-executive-order/?utm_term=.8e401e82f3d2
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/31/steve-bannon-most-dangerous-man-in-america
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/18/1601406/-Everything-You-Need-to-Know-About-Steve-Bannon-Breitbart-Russia
    http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/30/14431544/trump-breitbart-rejection-multicultural-democracy
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/20/steve-bannon-profile-breitbart-trump-campaign-manager
    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/11/steve-bannon-isnt-racist-hes-worse
    http://www.salon.com/2017/01/30/president-trumps-right-hand-man-steve-bannon-called-for-christian-holy-war-now-he-is-on-the-national-security-council_partner/

  30. Thanks Charles.
    Bannon’s religious views the most scary to me out of all that.
    I still think he has an inner need for destructive anarchy and that is a key driver for him. Hope I am wrong.

  31. From The Oz:

    The Australian has been told by Liberal sources that internal polling shows Labor on track to win at least 12 extra seats but that senior figures also believe Mr Barnett could still win the campaign and sneak back across the line.
    It is understood the Liberals already are resigned to losing the marginal seats of Belmont, ­Forrestfield, Perth, Swan Hills and Morley, as well as the notionally Liberal seats of West Swan and Collie-Preston.
    The government is also deeply concerned about its chances in Morley (held with a margin of 4.7 per cent), Balcatta (7.7 per cent margin) and Southern River (10.9 per cent margin).
    In addition, internal polling is showing big swings against the Liberals in what appear to be three safe northern seats of Perth — Wanneroo (held by Local Government Minister Paul Miles), Burns Beach (held by Environment Minister Albert Jacob) and Joondalup (held by backbencher Jan Norberger). The Liberals hold all three seats with margins of between 10.4 per cent and 11.3 per cent.

  33. ABC24:

    The US Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly says dual citizens may use their passport from countries not effected by the temporary ban.

    I wonder if he’s told the people issueing US visas and manning the US border this.

    FIASCO …

  34. From ABC news seems today at CPG Turnbull will continue to emphasise the need for energy security, as it is well know that renewable sources are unreliable. No doubt Uhlmann, as the Chair, will do his best to support that view.

  35. bushfire bill @ #197 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 10:35 pm

    I always thought you were a whingeing twat, Don, and comments like this one you made a little earlier prove it:

    All I can do is laugh at such a stupid distortion of what I said.

    I can never get fibre to the node or the premises, I won’t live that long. I live 7 km from town in a rural area on three hectares.

    It is ten times faster than copper and half the price.

    Yes, it suits me, those are figures that make me grateful for what I have. If 100/25 were available tomorrow, I would snap it up. It is not available, so I make do with what I have.

    What do you do? Stamp your feet and hold your breath till you turn blue?

  37. Take a chill pill BB, not everyone has the ability to snap up fast broadband. You can blame Labor for screwing around initially for that, and majorly blame LNP for changing it to Fraudband.

  38. Notice how Truffles will manage to infer that Labor is somehow to blame because they did some research on the subject.

    His answer, as it was in the election, is to unburden business through the proposed corporate tax cuts, even though the numbers in the Parliament remain hostile.

    “Years of research – much of it commissioned by the previous Labor government – has revealed a less obvious but very important truth: company tax is overwhelmingly a tax on workers and their salaries.That is why, if we had a 25 per cent business tax rate today, full-time workers on average weekly earnings would have an extra $750 in their pockets each and every year.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/battlelines–malcolm-turnbull-warns-of-soaring-electricity-prices-under-labor-20170131-gu2hhl.html

  40. william bowe @ #231 Wednesday, February 1, 2017 at 5:33 am

    From The Oz:

    The Australian has been told by Liberal sources that internal polling shows Labor on track to win at least 12 extra seats but that senior figures also believe Mr Barnett could still win the campaign and sneak back across the line…. (snip)

    Thanks William, that is good news indeed. May the tide turn increasingly against the LNP.

  41. No doubt this article from the SMH about the resignation of the entire senior management team at the US Department of State has resigned has been noted, but if not, it is worth reading:

    goo.gl/YisGsF

    Jesus wept.

    The Department of State in the US pursues economic diplomacy, all the stuff you have to do to get your exports in as many different countries as possible, on the best terms you can wangle.

    That they resigned en masse means that all that expertise and knowledge of who wields the influence, who are the contacts, what you can reasonably demand in terms of trade, where the (overseas) bodies are buried so you can twist people’s arms about getting the best deal is out the window.

    Not only that, their efforts not only increase profits for big US companies, they increase employment at home, for obvious reasons, right down the food chain.

    Getting rid of Trump is not going to be easy, though, before 2020.

  42. Binge watching all four seasons of usa House of Cards while also watching The Trump regime starting its era, is surreal.

  44. Morning all. Another day, another rant by paranoid right wing men, this time locally:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-31/wa-election-pilbara-one-nation-david-archibald-single-mothers/8227960

    Reading through this article, I find a disturbing pattern emerging among PHON candidates. A lot are middle aged men, perhaps struggling career wise, wanting someone or something (other than themselves) to blame for their lot in life. Unemployed? Immigrants! Divorced? Feminists! Forty and still single? Single mums unwilling to accept a decent bloke with a few rough edges! Voting for Pauline will solve all their problems….

  45. Norwester. Yes Bannon has already begun his quest for anarchy. What is scary is that unlike Trump he is intelligent, which makes him very dangerous. Evil, but intelligent.

  46. …even if Trump’s ideology were not noxious, his incompetence is a threat to all around him. To say that it is amateur hour at the White House is to slander amateurs. The recent executive orders were drafted and signed without any normal agency review or even semi-coherent legal advice, filled with elemental errors that any nursery school student would have caught.

    It seems that the Trump administration is less a government than a small clique of bloggers and tweeters who are incommunicado with the people who actually help them get things done. Things will get really hairy when the world’s problems are incoming.

    Third, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the aroma of bigotry infuses the whole operation, and anybody who aligns too closely will end up sharing in the stench.

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/the-republicans-deal-with-the-devil-20170131-gu2nri.html

  47. Lizzie
    The Trump team remind me of cricket tragics who imagine that because they can quote a few cricket statistics it makes them test opening batsmen. So when they can quote some random fact about economics they imagine they can run the economy too. Lucky we don’t have leaders like that. What is Joe Hockey doing these days?

  48. This will be deliberate murder by bureaucracy.

    A pregnant refugee on Nauru is in further danger by continuing her pregnancy after being diagnosed with pre-eclampsia, BuzzFeed reports. Doctors have recommended the 37-year-old Kuwaiti woman, known as Dee (not her real name), who is 37 weeks pregnant, be transferred to Australia for an emergency cesarean section, as her baby is in the breech position and she has a large fibroid on the wall of her uterus. Labor, the Greens and Doctors for Refugees have all called for the Department of Immigration and Border Protection to move the woman to Australia without delay, but the Department says it doesn’t comment on individual cases. The woman has been told she should prepare to give birth on Nauru.


  49. zoidlord
    Wednesday, February 1, 2017 at 6:40 am
    Take a chill pill BB, not everyone has the ability to snap up fast broadband. You can blame Labor for screwing around initially for that, and majorly blame LNP for changing it to Fraudband.

    It the real world it takes time to get large projects running ;in fact they run better if the time is taken to plan. In the case of the NBN they had to develop the technology and supply chains required to make it happen. Do you think the fibre and modems were available off the shelf at Best Buys?

    To blame Labor for reality shows a serious lack of knowledge on what was required. The sin here was to waste the effort and funds spent to set things up. The crime was spending the additional money to put in place the addition items required to supply half a solution and installing said solution. It is not cheaper, it is not being delivered sooner and we now have a system that will have to have serious further funds spent on it within decades. In the end we will have fibre to the home (if trump doesn’t destroy western civilization first); it is now going to cost a lot more to get there.

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