BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Sketchy though it is, the polling evidence so far this year suggests a turn for the worse for the Turnbull government.

BludgerTrack is being heavily determined at present by the two new year data points from Essential Research, but for what those data points are worth, they suggest the government may have entered a new phase in its polling fortunes. The latest result has wrenched two-party preferred almost a full point in favour of Labor, although this has only yielded a gain of one on the seat projection. The change is a straightforward result of Labor taking primary vote share off the Coalition, with One Nation failing to gain further ground for the first time in a while.

In other news, two by-elections loom in New South Wales:

• Mike Baird’s departure from the premiership and the parliament will result in a by-election for his seat of Manly. Labor is not competitive in the seat, which corresponds with Tony Abbott’s federal seat of Warringah, but it was held by independents for 16 years until Baird unseated David Barr in 2007. Potential Liberal preselection nominees identified in media reports include James Griffin, KMPG director and former Manly deputy mayor; Alex Dore, NSW Young Liberals president and management consultant; Natalie Ward, a private legal practitioner who relinquished a job as a political staffer in 2013 amid controversy over her marriage to David Begg, a co-principal of the lobbying firm associated with moderate powerbroker Michael Photios; Ron Delezio, founder of a hospital charity and father of Sophie Delezio, who suffered horrific injuries when a car crashed into a childcare centre in 2003; and Walter Villatora, a local party identity and advocate for preselection reform.

• The second New South Wales by-election will follow today’s resignation by Health Minister Jillian Skinner as the member for North Shore, ahead of her anticipated demotion to the back bench. North Shore neighbours Manly to the west, and is similarly solid in its conservatism. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Liberal preselection contestants may include Felicity Wilson, a former Property Council executive, and Tim James, former chief of staff to Energy Minister Anthony Roberts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,217 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 43 of 45
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  3. Rob Oakeshott ‏@RobOakeshott1 12s12 seconds ago

    We’ve cracked the $100 billion in global weapon sales in 2016. Up 6% from 2015. Looks like we’re entering blown to piece-ful times…….

  5. All signatories to Paris Agreement should put a tax on imports from the US and give the funds to carbon offset programs in the US.

  6. Hi everyone. It’s been a while: various life events have tended to invade my leisure time a lot lately. Also, Australian politics has been pretty dull since Parliament rose late last year, so I’ve been feeling a bit uninspired.

    But Trump certainly isn’t dull! I don’t agree with very much of what he’s doing, but you have to admire the energy with which he is trying to get on and implement what he said he’d do.

    I can’t help seeing a couple of parallels between the way things are panning out in Trump’s first few days and those of the Whitlam Government from December 1972 (not that they have anything at all in common policy wise). Gough was seized with the urge to implement his platform as quickly as possible, appointing himself and Lance Barnard as the Ministers for everything and trying to get as much done as possible through executive decree well before the first Parliamentary sitting of his Government. Some felt at the time – as one feels with Trump now – that the joke about the young bull and the old bull was applicable (you know Young Bull: “Let’s run down there and do a couple of those cows. Old Bull: “No, let’s walk down there and do the lot.”) Trump is opening up a lot of fronts on which he is going to have to fight: not always a good idea, although I wouldn’t underestimate him.

    The other parallel I see between Whitlam and Trump is a rather hysterical sort of “born to rule” attitude on the part of their opponents. Whitlam faced this from Day 1 from the Coalition parties and much of the public service and the Press Gallery, with the High Court also chipping in to do its bit.

    We are seeing something similar – with the poles of the political spectrum reversed – in the case of Trump. A lot of people who wanted Hillary to win seem to be unable to accept the fact that Trump won fair and square under the electoral system that has been in place for a long time. How dare he have such policies on women and Muslims? How dare he appoint Steve Bannon to the NSC? How dare he institute an executive order that the Acting Attorney-General (who wasn’t voted in by anybody) doesn’t like?

    The US political left is engaged in one of the all-time great collective dummy spits. I hope it’s making them feel better, because I suspect it’s not winning them too many friends among the broad mass of American voters. Sure, Trump is petty-minded – carrying on about vote-rigging and other stupidity – but why would the left want to descend to his level?

    And what’s with the Fairfax media the last few days? Have they forgotten which country they live in?

    Like it or not, Trump will be the President for the next four years. If his policies are as hopeless as many are saying, then he’ll be voted out in 2020. That’s democracy folks.

  7. dare to troll has taken their bat and left the pitch, but not before tripping over the stumps, running themselves out, boasting of innings yet to come, accusing other players of ball-tampering, abusing the crowd, refusing to face the bowling and insulting the umpire. will they return? probably.

  8. #TheResistance ‏@AynRandPaulRyan 9h9 hours ago

    Meet Mary Anne McLeod.
    Mary Anne emigrated to the US ILLEGALLY in 1929.
    Mary Anne was Donald Trump’s mother.
    #MondayMotivation

  9. Guardian Australia ‏@GuardianAus 4m4 minutes ago

    In a global trend towards ‘crimmigration’, Australia has led the world | Elyse Methven and Anthea Vogl

  13. ‘Like it or not, Trump will be the President for the next four years. If his policies are as hopeless as many are saying, then he’ll be voted out in 2020. That’s democracy folks.’

    Stand-up always was your forte.

  14. The Int’l Spectator ‏@spectatorindex 12m12 minutes ago

    BREAKING: Trump has sacked Acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement Director Daniel Ragsdale

  16. @adrian

    Wrong, USA has different political system to Australia.

    Also by the time 4 years come about, they will no longer have the so called “democracy”, which is already semi-democracy.

  17. zoidlord
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 2:22 pm
    #TheResistance ‏@AynRandPaulRyan 9h9 hours ago

    Meet Mary Anne McLeod.
    Mary Anne emigrated to the US ILLEGALLY in 1929.
    Mary Anne was Donald Trump’s mother.

    ********************************************
    There also appears to be some unresolved issue over the new First Lady’s immigration history

    California legislator calls for Melania Trump immigration records

    BERKELEY — A California state senator is calling on the White House to release documents related to Melania Trump’s immigration, as part of a broader objection to President Donald Trump’s immigration policies.

    An AP investigation last November found Melania Trump lacked proper work visas when she was employed as a model after arriving in the U.S. from her native Slovenia more than two decades ago.

    “No one in the Trump operation has released any of the documentation to indicate what was the circumstance, or whether she had full legal status,’’ Skinner told POLITICO California in an interview this week. “We only know they had a lawyer look at whatever papers she chose to give.”

    http://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2017/01/stirring-up-a-hornets-nest-ca-legislator-demanding-melania-trump-immigration-records-109126

  21. Player One
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 2:12 pm
    Briefly

    It is worth recalling that a lot of voters really deeply dislike politics and politicians. These voters are not attentive to left/right distinctions and include a disproportionately high share of the PHON-susceptible.

    This is precisely the demographic that both the alt-left and alt-right target with their “same-same” message. Sadly, it seems to work quite well.

    Well….the democratic challenge is always to find ways to make inquiries of, communicate with and respond to voters.

    Diminishing returns apply to the same/same messaging. “Same/same” depictions say to voters…”You cannot express yourself. You will always be irrelevant.” This is electoral nihilism. But people are not nihilistic or, at least, not for long. They will elect change as long as it is credible and relevant.

  22. Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust 20s20 seconds ago

    .@benwyatt: the @ColinBarnett government is entering this election campaign with ‘a lot of baggage’ #auspol

  23. #MondayNightMassacre: Internet scalds Trump for firing ‘god damned America hero’ Sally Yates

    The move prompted many observers to rail against the “fascist” undertones of Trump’s decision, with many using the hashtag #MondayNightMassacre to describe the events. The hashtag—which was trending on Twitter Monday night—is a clear allusion to Richard Nixon’s Saturday Night Massacre, wherein Attorney General Elliot Richardson and Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshaus resigned in protest after the former president demanded they fire a special prosecutor appointed to investigate the Watergate scandal.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/mondaynightmassacre-internet-scalds-trump-for-firing-god-damned-america-hero-sally-yates/

  24. but you have to admire the energy with which he is trying to get on and implement what he said he’d do.

    Only if you mean that watching Trump is akin to admiring the rapid spread of necrotizing fasciitis up a relative’s leg.

  25. Meher Baba
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 2:20 pm

    The US political left is engaged in one of the all-time great collective dummy spits. I hope it’s making them feel better, because I suspect it’s not winning them too many friends among the broad mass of American voters.

    Yeah yeah yeah. Keep telling yourself that, MB. The polls do not support this claim. The US Constitution is designed to limit the powers of the Executive and to protect the rights of the people. The Orange is actually a lemon…and is about to be peeled and then juiced.

  27. Zoidlord
    “Rob Oakeshott ‏@RobOakeshott1 12s12 seconds ago

    We’ve cracked the $100 billion in global weapon sales in 2016. Up 6% from 2015. Looks like we’re entering blown to piece-ful times…….”

    Yes interesting post. If there is one industry that does NOT want international stability it is the weapons industry. I raised yesterday the point that all of the obvious terrorist source countries NOT banned by Trump (Saudi, UAE, Egypt, Pakistan etc) were current or potential customers of US weapons makers. Is this a motive in the choice of banned countries? Raising the climate of fear sure helps gun sales locally and tank sales internationally.

    Of course if this is the plan I am sure that the “smart guys” in Trump’s cabinet imagine that they can ratchet up the climate of fear with impunity, with no risk an actual war will start. A glance through the history books shows the folly of this thinking. In fact, Barbara Touchman’s books are a good place to start reading.

  28. Adrian: “That’s the joke. Use of the word democracy. As Mr Cohen sang: Democracy is coming, to the U.S.A. Except it isn’t.”

    Leaving your insults to one side, I would observe that democracy in the US is a complex beast. In some respects, the US is more democratic than anywhere: eg, there aren’t many other places in which voters have the opportunity to elect a wide range of public office holders. On the other hand, there is a great deal of gerrymandering and other abuses.

    That said, I reckon Trump’s victory this time was far fairer and more “democratic” than GW Bush’s in 2000. Strangely, the left’s response to the outrage perpetrated by the openly-biased Supreme Court in that year was far more muted than the monumental display of sour grapes we’ve witnessed on this occasion.

    I think the Hillary factor was a big part of this: the combination of her being both a female and a Clinton seemed to create an almost cult-like obsession on the part of many of her supporters, including much of the Democrat party machine. And, indeed, I think it was the failure on the part of members of the Hillary cult fully to appreciate that she had zero appeal in the swing states, and therefore to do anything much to try to neutralise this problem, that was the cause of her ultimate defeat. (And it’s not like they had no warning: the strong showing in these states of a joke candidate in the person of Sanders was pretty good evidence).

    The Hillary cultists will calm down eventually and then, one assumes, the US centre-left will stop the whinging and mobilise itself in a effort to defeat Trump at the ballot box: starting at the mid-term congressionals and half Senate. It shouldn’t be too difficult: he seems highly likely to crash and burn pretty quickly.

  29. briefly, zoidloid and others: have you somehow overlooked the massive dummy spit that has taken place in the last week or two?

  30. @meher baba

    All I get from you bla blah activists blah blah left, blah blah that.

    In other words, a whole load of bullshit, aimed at for distraction.

  35. briefly: “Yeah yeah yeah. Keep telling yourself that, MB. The polls do not support this claim. The US Constitution is designed to limit the powers of the Executive and to protect the rights of the people. The Orange is actually a lemon…and is about to be peeled and then juiced.”

    The polls showed Hillary as an easy winner until suddenly she wasn’t. I really don’t believe that the US polls have a lot of credibility.

    And yes, no doubt Trump’s policies mostly won’t work and he’ll mostly likely crash and burn (although I note that everyone who has underrated him up to now has got egg on their face). But I’d rather see his policies be implemented and fail rather than for everything he tries to do to be blocked in every way possible: a process which conceivably might make him more popular in the short term.

    I didn’t like it when it happened to Whitlam and I don’t like it now.

  37. PhoenixRed
    “Australia has no need for a fearful prime minister. Right now, we desperately need a conviction leader.”

    Sadly, I do not think Australia will get a conviction leader at the Federal level until we have a Federal Icac. Even then, the first few will not be the sorts of convictions you mean 🙂

  38. meher

    I don’t call it a massive dummy spit when people call out disastrous decisions made by their government – or even the governments of other countries.

    For starters, making one’s displeasure known about the decisions made by elected representatives is not only part and parcel of any democracy, but essential to it.

    If all people were doing was saying, “Trump has made a decision. Trump made it, therefore that decision is wrong” you might have a case. But that’s not what’s happening.

  39. Player One: I don’t think I’ve ever seen DTT post on the “Clinton cult”. Anyway, I think her views and mine are way apart on many subjects: Kevin Rudd being just one obvious example.

    But I’ve always enjoyed conspiracy theories. Let’s start one that Trump is actually a Russian sleeper and has an Order of Lenin hidden away at Trump Tower.

  40. Meher Baba
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 2:50 pm
    briefly, zoidloid and others: have you somehow overlooked the massive dummy spit that has taken place in the last week or two?

    The crowds of protestors have been comprised of working people. Have they been spitting anything? Not so much. They have been objecting to decisions taken by Trump. Do they have a right to object? Of course. Do they have grounds for protest? They seem to think so.

    You’re just another amateur Trumpologist looking on from (what we hope is) a safe distance. The people who are most affected by Trump are expressing themselves….And like Trump, you are not interested in listening to them.

  43. MB

    What a load of crap. Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million.

    Trump has no mandate. His power is going to be restrained by fellow GOP just as Nixon was.

    When Carl Bernstein says the Prisedency is in chaos adding to my own views fom public reaction and the resistance of public servants to the incompetence.

    There are going to be some GOP heroes who will be the George Schultz of their day.

  45. zoidlord @ #2135 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 2:55 pm

    Meanwhile……..
    Nick Ross ‏@NickRossTech 2m2 minutes ago
    Ha! nbnTMco has taken heed of criticism about its dodgy ads and upped the budget 100000x to produce this howler http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/01/this-nbn-ad-is-a-huge-troll-to-almost-everybody/ … #NBN

    Jeez. You feel like throwing stuff at the screen and screaming about half way through. Way to piss off regional Australians who already have the NBN and know it is utter crap.

  47. MB
    I supported Hillary over Bernie. Yet even so, I think debating that now is as futile as going back over Gillard vs Rudd. The US system is nothing like Australia’s so why are you going on about Whitlam comparisons?? Besides, Gough was never in a position to launch world war three, or sink the world economy.

    I wonder if, now the terrible reality of Trump has sunk in, that those who thought it would be good to see Hillary loose are trying to rationalise their stance? If they advocated Trump as being “less dangerous” than Clinton, then they have to acknowledge some personal responsibility for the cluster&@#k that is the US cabinet today. So I can understand there is a lot of reinventing going on in the minds of these people to avoid admitting to themselves that they were terribly wrong about Trump. We were warned Trump would be a disaster, and the warnings are turning out to be correct.

  48. Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham 23s23 seconds ago

    Nothing if not predictable: Peter Dutton backs Donald Trump’s ‘mandate’ to enforce travel ban

  49. zoomster: “I don’t call it a massive dummy spit when people call out disastrous decisions made by their government – or even the governments of other countries.”

    The dummy -spitting started way before Trump was inaugurated and began making any decisions.

    Re the issue du jour – the Muslim visa ban – Trump could argue – a la Gough – that he has a “mandate” from the voters for this. The way he’s implemented it pretty stupid, but the idea behind it was very clearly part of his electoral platform. I also think that he will be delighted at all the carry on that it has created: that’s a key part of his strategy. He’s banking on the idea that the general public will ignore the sob stories and support the overall thrust of his policy. And this in turn will put pressure on the House and Senate to back whatever legislation he wants to put in place to back the policy.

    Trump is/isn’t many things – eg, contrary to what many people believe, he was never much of a businessman – but he’s not stupid. And he has people in his inner circle who are really good at selling messages to the broad public: messages that educated, liberal-minded people like you and (most of the time) me might abhor.

  50. meher baba @ #2138 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 2:57 pm

    Player One: I don’t think I’ve ever seen DTT post on the “Clinton cult”. Anyway, I think her views and mine are way apart on many subjects: Kevin Rudd being just one obvious example.
    But I’ve always enjoyed conspiracy theories. Let’s start one that Trump is actually a Russian sleeper and has an Order of Lenin hidden away at Trump Tower.

    You sound more and more like her with every post. But perhaps it is just that all Trump apologists tend to regurgitate the same few themes.

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