BludgerTrack is being heavily determined at present by the two new year data points from Essential Research, but for what those data points are worth, they suggest the government may have entered a new phase in its polling fortunes. The latest result has wrenched two-party preferred almost a full point in favour of Labor, although this has only yielded a gain of one on the seat projection. The change is a straightforward result of Labor taking primary vote share off the Coalition, with One Nation failing to gain further ground for the first time in a while.
In other news, two by-elections loom in New South Wales:
• Mike Baird’s departure from the premiership and the parliament will result in a by-election for his seat of Manly. Labor is not competitive in the seat, which corresponds with Tony Abbott’s federal seat of Warringah, but it was held by independents for 16 years until Baird unseated David Barr in 2007. Potential Liberal preselection nominees identified in media reports include James Griffin, KMPG director and former Manly deputy mayor; Alex Dore, NSW Young Liberals president and management consultant; Natalie Ward, a private legal practitioner who relinquished a job as a political staffer in 2013 amid controversy over her marriage to David Begg, a co-principal of the lobbying firm associated with moderate powerbroker Michael Photios; Ron Delezio, founder of a hospital charity and father of Sophie Delezio, who suffered horrific injuries when a car crashed into a childcare centre in 2003; and Walter Villatora, a local party identity and advocate for preselection reform.
• The second New South Wales by-election will follow today’s resignation by Health Minister Jillian Skinner as the member for North Shore, ahead of her anticipated demotion to the back bench. North Shore neighbours Manly to the west, and is similarly solid in its conservatism. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Liberal preselection contestants may include Felicity Wilson, a former Property Council executive, and Tim James, former chief of staff to Energy Minister Anthony Roberts.
2,217 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”
You are just so fast on the draw, William
From previous thread.
Copy of post from a few days ago.
I would like it known that my memory is what is known in medical circles as “ratshit”.
So, because of that I make little business cards for various people, addresses such as Crikey Phone Numbers and Crikey Support.
Simply aide memoir to you Spanish speakers.
The post above was in response to my weird (I thought) experience with a gentleman from Telstra trying to sort out my Internet and Phone accounts.
The real experience was even worse than described. The poor man from Telstra kept saying use this number to keep up with your order. I had no idea what he was saying and naturally enough signed off with no Order No.
I have since obtained the order number and am now on track with my order for a “Telstra Home Internet Medium Bundle” which includes calls to fixed line and mobiles. So all is well there.
I have digressed. Nothing new there.
There were a few responses and the one above rang a bell. Only a week delay.
I know why you were crying BH. I have done the same on realizing, not who you are – because I don’t know that, but a little of your circumstances because of your prior post for which I made a little card.
I wish you and your son the very best of outcomes. If you would like a really good couple of stories that made me laugh even if I feature in one as “Mac” the drunk sliding down the wall – then I’m your man. (who would have thunk that, eh! – copied from your post.)
I have the drunken ladies’ night pissup with “Kevin Barry” highlight almost ready to go.
I am going to try to work up a story about the wonderful Post Office delivery girl. I have known this lovely girl for years and my wife always knew who it was because of her giggle.
We are, most of us, anonymous and so I believe you will not be embarrassed in any way. Would that I could be of further assistance to you.
I will post probably early morning.
Again, my very best wishes to you and your family.
Love from Abbee the regimental dog and me.
☮ ❤ ❤
For BH and Brian Boru and the rest of the world.
Friday night. Ladies night at the regimental boozer.
The troops dressed in their finest, finest raiment, hair slicked, ties straight, shoes shined.
Ladies, very well dressed and looking their usual sedate themselves.
8:00 P.M. Music via records (we all remember them, do we not?) a trumpet player, guitar, piano, accordian. Very pleasing sound.
Quiet conversation – usual subjects, work, weather, day to day happenings.
9.00 P.M. A few drinks on board. Ties slightly askew.
Troops and ladies – jovial and chatty, talkative and a little daring.
9.30 P.M. A little more of the same plus. Motor skills and speech becoming impaired.
10.00 P.M. Troops can now satisfactorily be described as pissed. Ladies a little less so.
10.30 P.M. Almost to P.F.O. stage (medical term “Pissed and Fell Over”). A few sprinters have left the field and retired to bed/home.
10.30 P.M. Riotously drunk. Those who can sing are singing. Those who can’t sing – think they can and are singing. Everybody thinks they are Caruso or equivalent.
11.00 P.M. A request for silence rings out.
“Paddy – where’s Paddy?”.
Aahhrr , here oi be, slurs Paddy.
A request – What about “Keven Barry”.
To and fro in barely understood semblance of the English language.
Then Paddy sings “Keven Barry”. The troops including yours truly are entranced. Paddy is in an almost hypnotic state. His mind is somewhere in the universe – certainly not in the local boozer. He is almost foaming at the mouth with the emotion brought on by the remembrance of the song. Paddy is brought to tears, as is most of the audience.
“Kevin Barry” is a popular Irish rebel song recounting the death of Kevin Barry, a member of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) who was hanged on 1 November 1920.
Calm more or less descends as the various subsets of troops and ladies pair off, piss off or subside into or onto floor, chairs, furniture.
Later, as the few more capable are tidying up, cleaning up, dumping bottles, fag ends & rubbish and washing glasses.
Flicken good night mate. Did you see Mac sliding down the wall and trying to get up.
Yeah dumb bastard. What about Doc. Flicken good bloke Doc except when he does that thing where he prods you on the chest. Flicken hurts dunnit.
Yeah and Hippy, (that would be Hipshot – named after the gunfighter in “Rick O’shea cartoon) who did he ask to marry him?
Well, I think he asked Carol first, he always starts with Carol. I dunno who was his next target.
So, when’s the wedding?
I don’t think anybody accepted his proposals.
Anyway flicken good night. I betcha nobody remembers anything at all in the morning.
Nah. Goodnight mate.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Jack Waterford calls out Turnbull as being the weakest and most indecisive PM since McMahon.
Karen Middleton reckons she has the scoop. Brandis to London and Porter to b A-G. Lordy lodry!
Lenore Taylor sys Australia should not chase Trump on corporate tax cuts. We do need to debate what sort of society we want to end up being though.
Donald Trump may prove “deeply dangerous” for the rest of the world if confronted militarily, says the UK’s recently retired commander of the joint forces.
Chris Wallace writes on Turnbull in the Trump era.
Trump’s bullying behaviour has all bowing before him.
Donald Trump assumes the US presidency with emolument proceedings filed against him and investigations under way by up to six state agencies.
When an angry Fairfield councillor stormed out of a council meeting last year, he left behind a piece of paper which confirmed what many had long suspected: Joe Tripodi is still pulling strings in the shadows. Joe’s poison transcends party bounds.
A top White House official has told the media to “keep its mouth shut”. A threat no less.
The Turnbull government is falling short of its global and domestic infrastructure promises as a widening gap threatens to leave the economy dangerously exposed, particularly if the Trump administration triggers a global trade war. Google.
Section 2 . . .
Jacqui Maley puts it to us that Trump has no better friend than Australia. A nice piece.
Stephen Koukoulas has some fun with our trade deficit with Mexico.
Paul McGeough on how Comical Ali showed the money for the wall but then it vanished.
Where will Guthrie take the ABC?
A consumer backlash has wiped tens of millions of dollars off the value of soft drink sales at Australia’s major supermarkets, with demand plunging amid growing concern that sugary drinks are a major cause of diabetes and obesity. Maybe we don’t need a sugar tax after all.
Why Turnbull’s digital transformation guru had to quit. And he unloads on the Centrelink debacle as being a “failure of management”. Google.
Peter Hartcher in a rambling article wonders if Abbott will have another crack.
During an interview on Fox News’s Hannity, President Trump defined what he meant by fake news. According to Trump, all of the respectable outlets who label his false statements lies are fake news.
Will Trump end the Age of Enlightenment? Google.
Arfur on why he deserves another chance,
Section 3 . . .
Centrelink is still stonewalling!
Centrelink’s flawed system of debt recovery has proved a debacle for the government and a tortuous struggle for those wrongly accused of owing money writes Mike Seccombe. It’s a seminal article on the issue.
Please NO!!! Georgina Downer eying off Mayo? Google.
Morrison digs in against calls for change to negative gearing.
There is no doubt Theresa May disagrees with Trump on many issues. Maybe she hopes that by holding him close, she can better hope to disarm him.
Eight years jail for the former Billabong chief.
Mesma was unable to express confidence in the US refugee deal.
Trump’s Twitter diplomacy ads more fuel to the fire over the Mexico border issue.
US President Donald Trump has used his second TV interview since taking power to defend his son Barron and to denounce pop star Madonna as “disgusting”.
A leaked audio tape of a behind closed doors conversation at the Republican retreat about repealing Obamacare revealed a GOP that is terrified and running scared over the mess that they have gotten themselves into.
Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner
Andrew Street laughs at Barnaby Joyce. Don’t we all?
A good piece by Ross Gittins on the everyday pitfalls of popular probability misunderstanding.
Crispin Hull has some ideas on housing affordability. By my reckoning if house prices fall the only ones to be hurt are those who own houses they don’t live in.
Alan Moir and the last gasp of the TPP.
Mark David has baked a cake to celebrate Trump’s first week as president.
Cathy Wilcox takes Fred Nile to US Immigration.
David Rowe and his Mexican standoff.
Andrew Dyson and the pussy backlash.
Matt Golding sums up Trump diplomacy.
Bill Leak continues to toe his master’s line.
While this piece https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/27/steve-bannon-white-house-official-media-keep-mouth-shut-threat is on the importance of a free media, there are a couple of give away lines.
Firstly, the author acknowledges the failure of the media to hold Trump to account prior to his election; secondly, she refers to the media’s reluctance to question the claims that Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, because they feared losing access.
This makes her premise – that now is the time for the media to do its job and protect us from the excesses of a Trump presidency – rather shaky.
If the media had been doing its job for the last decade*, we wouldn’t have Trump.
If the media had been doing its job for the last decade, the public would trust it enough that when a Trump came along, the media could call him out and be listened to.
*An arbitrary unit of time. It is quite possible that it means ‘back to the Golden Age’, that era where everything worked exactly as it should but which no one seems to know the dates for.
Watched “Requiem for the American Dream” on Netflix. Noam Chomsky cogently hits the nails on the head and I so enjoy his wide-ranging intellect and calm delivery. Well worth a watch.
Thank you, BK for your efforts on our behalf this morning. I see you are including Politicususa articles as well now. They are very good.
I loved today’s story about the leaked Obamacare Repeal tape. The only thing they misreported was this bit I believe:
“We’d better be sure that we’re prepared to live with the market we’ve created” with repeal, said Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.). “That’s going to be called Trumpdon’tcare. Republicans will own that lock, stock and barrel, and we’ll be judged in the election less than two years away.”
I fixed it. I’m a Fixer too. 🙂
There must be two Bill Shortens
From the above article
But if Shorten has shown some resilience and self-discipline, he retains all of the weaknesses that prompt many would-be Labor voters to despair. He is a ruthless factional player and former union hack, with an unattractive (and shameful) record of putting his own political interests ahead of working-class Australians. There is no consistent moral or political theme, apart from opportunism and ambition, that can describe the range of political stances and alliances – and betrayals – that have marked his political career. He is not trusted, or even liked, by most of his colleagues, even as Labor has been remarkably disciplined and united in following him. He has never seemed more bogus than when he, with his record, invokes traditional Labor themes, or campaigns on matters such as health, or education.
Thanks BK for today’s reading. After a week of President Trump the comedians are on fire.
Real Time today should be a hoot as well.
In the name of balance…
‘Although Turnbull has shown little resilience and self-discipline, he retains all of the weaknesses that prompt many would-be Liberal voters to despair. He is clueless when it comes to uniting his party and is a former investment banker, with an unattractive (and shameful) record of putting his own political interests ahead of all Australians. There is no consistent moral or political theme, apart from opportunism and ambition, that can describe the range of political stances and alliances – and betrayals – that have marked his political career. He is not trusted, or even liked, by most of his colleagues, who show no inclination to follow him. He has never seemed more bogus than when he, with his record, invokes traditional Liberal themes, or campaigns on matters such as health, or education or climate change or innovation or the NBN or…..
I think the US media failed completely in the years following 9/11. It is a shadow of its former self.
I think that what many have failed to grasp (especially mainstream politicians in the US) is that the media clout has evaporated. I think we saw it here too, in 2013 and again in 2016. The areas where Murdoch tried his shock and awe approach just did NOT swing as he expected. In 2013 he had his absurd terrorgraph stuff focussing on Western Sydney, but it did not swing to Abbott as hard as expected and Labor hung on to seats it may have lost.
I suspect if we look closely at the Murdoch rag readership you will also not find it well correlated to swings. I may well be wrong and I await decent research but that is my gut feeling.
Ah, I see Jack Waterford is victim to the false balance imperative.
Jack Waterford is an old slightly lefty journo. Unlike younger journos he would not need to kowtow to the bosses, as he must be well, well past retirement age. He seemed old when I was young!!!!
I suspect he is simply restating the Canberra lefty sort of view, re Bill Shorten.
I particularly dislike the phrase “union hack”. It implies a complete lack of intelligence and a plodding, dull mentality.
I enjoyed your ‘balance’. And all true.
So were Bob Hawke and Ben Chifley “union hacks”?
Well, goodness knows where he gets his info from – Shorten has always been well liked across the factions, as his winning the caucus vote shows. Even the Labor left people I know speak of him with affection.
What would the big business equivalent of a union hack be? A corporate lackey?
Philip Rucker – Verified account @PhilipRucker
Quite a statement from Sen. John McCain about Trump possibly lifting sanctions against Russia, ahead of Putin call
9:00 AM – 27 Jan 2017
2,457 RETWEETS2,519 LIKES
As well as the problems mentioned above the Nationals politicians also have to try to deal with farmers overwhelmingly being believers in climate change and at the same time brawling about water allocation in the Murray-Darling Basin …
Here is link to Statement by McCain
Apart from their obsession with the idea that a modern party should be headed by a charismatic leader, the media is also obsessed with the idea of a conviction politician – someone who has one agenda and sticks with it throughout their entire political life.
For starers, that kind of person is very dangerous, because they’re incapable of learning or adapting. Politics is the art of the possible; it requires collaboration and compromise. Someone who resolutely sticks to their guns either achieves nothing or rides all over other people without consideration of the consequences.
That a good politician should be pragmatic, prepared to compromise and should look at each issue on its merits (rather than approaching it with an inflexible set of values to be applied to any situation) seems incomprehensible to them.
That learning (in any job) means that you can change your mind and shift your position on even quite fundamental issues is another thing they can’t grasp.
A politician who, after a decade in the job, is still trying to tick off every item in their maiden speech, and hasn’t shifted their viewpoint on a single issue (and thus can be accused of backflipping, hypocrisy, etc etc) should be ridiculed, not applauded.
And this piece in Business Insider Australia is tres interesting…….
An unverified dossier with claims about President Donald Trump’s ties to Russia contained allegations that the CEO of Russia’s
state oil company, Igor Sechin, offered former Trump ally Carter Page and his associates a 19% stake in the company in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions on Russia.
The dossier says the offer was made in July 2016, when Page was in Moscow giving a speech at the Higher Economic School. The claim was sourced to “a trusted compatriot and close associate” of Sechin, according to the dossier’s author, former British spy Christopher Steele.
daretotread @ #17 Saturday, January 28, 2017 at 8:57 am
Jack Waterford started writing rubbish years ago, along with Mungo McCallum. He has also trended right over that time. I find him totally unreadable now: long, digressive whinges that go nowhere.
Donald Trump, the trojan horse for the religious right:
The religious right has been elevated to power without having any of their outdated views contested in an election. I thought at the time that wasn’t it great last year’s election eschewed religion, but now look at what’s happened!
The small number of Nationals in the Fed Parl makes the agreement to make their leader the DPM an absolute farce. If any group is an ‘unrepresentative swill, it is Barnaby’s lot.
More proof of why people don’t trust the media. As William has shown with his excellent bludgertrack no Labor people are in despair.
That word belongs to the right with its infighting splits (Whats Bernadi up to?) and losing polling.
Guytaur, it’s Bernardi, Bernard with an “i” at the end, not Bernadi.
Correction noted. 🙂
People like Jack Waterford, from his comfortable position as tenured, former Editor of The Canberra Times, don’t know how much their repeated use of the phrase ‘Union hack’ rends the delicate fabric of society even more than it already is being ruined at a rapid pace by the political party that represents the interests of Big and Multinational Businesses who are increasingly becoming the employers, via Labour Hire companies, of workers who used to be the backbone of our Working Class and members of Unions.
Workers need Unions now more than ever because Unions are the bulwark between exploitation of the workforce and these amoral employers. Bill Shorten believes in the role of Unions in a just society down to the very marrow of his bones, and for elitist pontificators like Jack Waterford (and what has he ever done for the Working Man and Woman? Bupkis!), to sneer at Bill Shorten in the way that he has today and to make frankly insupportable assertions about the feelings of the FPLP towards Bill (which are likely just the bleatings of a very few malcontents), is just plain nasty.
There is no evidence to support his claims about Bill Shorten. I should know, I have real conversations on a regular basis with real Labor MPs about Bill and they say nothing of the sort about him.
In fact, I’m off very soon to speak to some more.
Jack Waterford is a tedious bore who is a know-all. Just another CPG political journalist hack living in the Canberra bubble.
Trump’s “Curveball” moment: His “voter fraud” investigation is apparently based on one unsubstantiated tweet
This week, Trump’s source seems to have finally been revealed. The Daily Beast’s Ben Collins and Olivia Nuzzi interviewed a guy named Gregg Phillips, the founder of a voter-fraud reporting app, who tweeted just days after the election that he had “verified more than three million votes cast by non-citizens” and was going to “initiate legal action.”
Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
Look forward to seeing final results of VoteStand. Gregg Phillips and crew say at least 3,000,000 votes were illegal. We must do better!
Not to put too fine a point on it, but this is absolutely insane. The president is 100 percent committed to the notion of widespread illegal voting because somebody tweeted it months ago.
So Waterford has a glass jaw?
I think you perhaps see Shorten with rose tinted glasses. I KNOW that many in the NSW and Qld left disliked him intensely and see him in exactly the terms Waterford sees him.
Forget if fair or not because factional politics are never fair. Shorten has been very successful in uniting the team, and clearly has the sort of personality that can do just this. However do not underestimate the rivalry or dislike either. In 2011, the two sparring rising stars were Shorten and Combet. Those on the left loved Combet and hated Shorten and presumably vice versa for the right.
I unreservedly apologise for that weak pun.
Check out how Trump responds to a question about his extreme beliefs from a BBC journo:
He has also been shown to get his talking points from Fox News. That whole take over Chicago thing was a Bill O’Reilly comment which one hour later was tweeted by Trump.
Not rose tinted; I was surprised to hear my friends on the Left talk of him with such affection, because I expected the opposite. And he did win the caucus vote convincingly, which meant that many on the Left voted for him.
fulvio sammut @ #39 Saturday, January 28, 2017 at 9:48 am
I liked it. 🙂
Read Bludgertrack. No matter what happened in the past. No matter what journalists say. Union supporting Labor people are not in despair about Bill Shorten.
Its a pure biased lie. Therefore the journalist has proven his worth. Whatever credibility Waterford had flushed down the toilet.
‘British Prime Minister Theresa May says US President Donald Trump has reaffirmed his “unshakable commitment” to NATO…’
‘…. Mr Trump moved to smooth over concerns he would reintroduce torture and played down suggestions he would relax sanctions on Russia.’
Interesting side light is that not so long ago, those on the left were looking for a Messiah to lead them from the political wilderness. Meanwhile, those on the right now think they have one in Trump. I can’t remember a time in the last 20 years or so, when the forces of reaction have been in such ascendance. I think, however, that the claims of the death of liberalism are a little premature. It does mean however, that despite all, “history as we know it” has not come to an end. It is time surely, for the enlightened side of politics to regroup and contest this move to the right, so-say, in the name of conservatism. I think George Orwell had it somewhere near correct, though his bogey was seen as Communism whereas the real danger lies in a resurgent Fascism. The fact that in Russia, a man slapping his wife around, and laws to address this, are being currently watered down, is seen by those in Russia as a “liberal-style intrusion into family life” shows just how strong this current mood is becoming some kind of normal.
confessions Saturday, January 28, 2017 at 9:51 am
He has also been shown to get his talking points from Fox News. That whole take over Chicago thing was a Bill O’Reilly comment which one hour later was tweeted by Trump.
Yes Confessions – he seems to RE-act to what he sees – and bases his decisions on whatever Fox is spouting at any particular moment …. Rupert must be lapping it all up
Someone Please Change the Channel on the White House TV
Trump Is Getting Talking Points From Fox News Again
Waterford also needs to apply some clear thinking to his own statements – a leader who was widely disliked would not be able to unite the party behind him or maintain discipline. The fact Shorten can do both should have Waterford reassessing either the reliability of his sources or the way he’s interpreting their information.
We have the death of neo liberalism NOT liberalism.
Liberalism embraces constraints on the free market. Liberalism puts people above money in economic policy.
Thus Universal Health Care. Minimum Wage and looking at real ways to address wealth redistribution especially as automation increases.
Unintended consequences or the result of electing an ignorant boofhead to office?
Endangered animals are already cut off by a border wall. Trump wants it much bigger.