BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Sketchy though it is, the polling evidence so far this year suggests a turn for the worse for the Turnbull government.

BludgerTrack is being heavily determined at present by the two new year data points from Essential Research, but for what those data points are worth, they suggest the government may have entered a new phase in its polling fortunes. The latest result has wrenched two-party preferred almost a full point in favour of Labor, although this has only yielded a gain of one on the seat projection. The change is a straightforward result of Labor taking primary vote share off the Coalition, with One Nation failing to gain further ground for the first time in a while.

In other news, two by-elections loom in New South Wales:

• Mike Baird’s departure from the premiership and the parliament will result in a by-election for his seat of Manly. Labor is not competitive in the seat, which corresponds with Tony Abbott’s federal seat of Warringah, but it was held by independents for 16 years until Baird unseated David Barr in 2007. Potential Liberal preselection nominees identified in media reports include James Griffin, KMPG director and former Manly deputy mayor; Alex Dore, NSW Young Liberals president and management consultant; Natalie Ward, a private legal practitioner who relinquished a job as a political staffer in 2013 amid controversy over her marriage to David Begg, a co-principal of the lobbying firm associated with moderate powerbroker Michael Photios; Ron Delezio, founder of a hospital charity and father of Sophie Delezio, who suffered horrific injuries when a car crashed into a childcare centre in 2003; and Walter Villatora, a local party identity and advocate for preselection reform.

• The second New South Wales by-election will follow today’s resignation by Health Minister Jillian Skinner as the member for North Shore, ahead of her anticipated demotion to the back bench. North Shore neighbours Manly to the west, and is similarly solid in its conservatism. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Liberal preselection contestants may include Felicity Wilson, a former Property Council executive, and Tim James, former chief of staff to Energy Minister Anthony Roberts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,217 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

  1. @meher baba

    Trump doesn’t have a mandate, just like LNP don’t have a mandate.

    Simple fact, you cannot be above the law.

    Trump has already violated the law.

  2. But I’d rather see his policies be implemented and fail rather than for everything he tries to do to be blocked in every way possible: a process which conceivably might make him more popular in the short term.

    What, even if they are unlawful or even unconstitutional? Because all that has happened so far is that the judiciary have proscribed the application of his edicts, or Officers of State have foreseen this to be the undoubted outcome of testing their application.

  3. @meher baba

    Would reather see more and more illegal shit happen in USA, just as long as it doesn’t effect meher baba – don’t care about anyone else.

  4. Look, I hate Trump as much as the next person, but that meme about his mother’s immigration status is simply untrue, which a quick google search will prove.

    This same thing was suggested a while ago; it got fact-checked and was proved to be false. She had all her ducks in order before she left Scotland, she went to live with her sister (who supported her) and it wasn’t long before she met Herr Drumph and became a trophy wife and mother.

    So no, no immigration laws broken there.

  5. ‘The dummy -spitting started way before Trump was inaugurated and began making any decisions.’

    Agreed. But that’s still a spurious argument when talking about the present situation.

    The dummy spit might have been based on reasonable expectations about Trump’s behaviour, based on knowledge of the man.

    ‘Re the issue du jour – the Muslim visa ban – Trump could argue – a la Gough – that he has a “mandate” from the voters for this..’

    Well he can – but as you say, it’s been implemented stupidly. Voters often ‘give’ mandates in the expectation that whatever policy it is will be implemented a certain way – we’ve all seen politicians whining that all they’re doing is implementing their mandate, when it’s obviously to all and sundry that the way they’re doing it isn’t the way any voter expected them to.

    ‘Trump is/isn’t many things – eg, contrary to what many people believe, he was never much of a businessman – but he’s not stupid. And he has people in his inner circle who are really good at selling messages to the broad public: messages that educated, liberal-minded people like you and (most of the time) me might abhor.’

    I’m not sure how you’ve decided that Trump isn’t stupid, and I don’t know enough about the man to really comment – he doesn’t seem terribly bright to me.

    As for the second part: one of the Trumpista beliefs was that he would listen to wiser heads once elected. We haven’t seen much evidence of wiser heads, or even of resonating messages. To place in faith in the abilities of those around Trump might thus be a bit naive.

  6. MB,

    The way he implemented it has been a disaster. Why you think this Presidency can recover credibilty and the trust of the US community is the real mystery here. Trump has come to the Office with the lowest popularity ratings of all time. Tell us in your bloviating way why you think it won’t deteriorate further from here?

    You’re always good for stating the bleeding obvious like Chauncey Gardiner in Being There. Trump’s Presidency is a real disturbance in the Force. Where things go from here is not going to be where we were two weeks ago.

  7. Zoidlord
    “Trump is also claiming that the American Dream is back, this is the biggest lie you can create.”

    No, it’s true. Pretty soon manufacturing jobs will start falling from the sky. *Heavy* manufacturing jobs. So if you live in the Rust Belt – take cover!

  8. @Chinda63

    What matters is that people cannot migrate with the benefits that she had…

    According to The National (a Scottish newspaper) Mary Anne was issued an immigration visa no. 26698 at Glasgow on February 17, 1930. On May 2, 1930, MacLeod departed Glasgow, Scotland, aboard the RMS Transylvania arriving in New York City on May 11, 1930‍—‌one day after her 18th birthday and her declaring she intended to become a U.S. citizen and would be staying permanently in America

  9. jenauthor @ #2072 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 1:53 pm

    Bemused: Disagreeing with someone arguments is fair enough, but too often DTT was just bullied.
    bemused, I’d perhaps agree if she didn’t include comments that were wtte:
    everyone here needs to be educated
    many here do not understand how to write the language
    most here are superficial in their understanding
    many here engage in groupthink
    and the like.
    While they were not bullying comments, they were derogatory, demeaning, patronising, condescending and lacking in empathy.
    I had decided to put DTT’s posts on the STFU list because I no longer wished to read stuff that was so condescending to many people here. Not so much because of her views. If I got angry in some of my posts it was for the above reason … not because of a personal dislike.
    As far as I know, William might be able to tell us, there is no requirement that those contributing to this blog have a certain level of education, nor are they asked to read every possible viewpoint on an issue before adding their voice to a discussion.

    I take your point.
    Must be all my years of debates/arguments in the YLA and ALP that have toughened me up so stuff like that is just water off a ducks back. Same with the barbs from others. 😛

    I think she had a similar background and is likewise desensitised.

  10. The Associated Press ‏@AP 3h3 hours ago

    .@AP learns Donald Trump’s voter fraud expert was registered in 3 states during 2016 presidential election.

  11. Player One
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:05 pm

    meher baba @ #2138 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 2:57 pm

    “Player One: I don’t think I’ve ever seen DTT post on the “Clinton cult”. Anyway, I think her views and mine are way apart on many subjects: Kevin Rudd being just one obvious example.
    But I’ve always enjoyed conspiracy theories. Let’s start one that Trump is actually a Russian sleeper and has an Order of Lenin hidden away at Trump Tower.”

    You sound more and more like her with every post. But perhaps it is just that all Trump apologists tend to regurgitate the same few themes.

    ********************************************
    FMD ……. my ‘rellies over the decades have had the misfortune to have had :

    Axis Sally
    Tokyo Rose
    Hanoi Jane

    ………. and more lately

    Russia Today DTT

    phew ……

    now Baba – another Trump apologist pops up ……

    Vlad must be sending out the “activate now ” code to awaken the sleepers …..

  12. Player One Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:01 pm

    Jeez. You feel like throwing stuff at the screen and screaming about half way through. Way to piss off regional Australians who already have the NBN and know it is utter crap.

    I have the NBN and it’s good. But then my NBN connection is FTTP. 🙂

  13. Trump’s idiotic immigration bans are one thing. Of far more importance are his changes to the security instruments. Australia is now allied to an incipiently neo-Nazi, white-supremacist war-machine.

    As well, we’ve all been injuncted (indirectly, by the use of the example of Prince Charles and climate change) not to challenge Trump lest he get upset. This is truly bizarre. We are supposed to resile from discussing the most serious issues because we may hurt Trump’s feelings and kick off a tantrum. We wouldn’t try to run a footrace that way let alone a superpower. Trump and his courtiers seem to think they can threaten or coerce everyone into going along with them. That may work with Malcolm Turnbull. It won’t work with most of the rest of us.

  14. Belinda Merhab ‏@belinda_merhab 4m4 minutes ago

    Rod Culleton’s bid to retain privileges and allowances of a senator has been dismissed by the High Court #auspol

  15. What’s this rubbish about Trump not having a ‘mandate’? Under the rules by which the US election is run, he won………..at least he won the important part of the election which allowed him to become President. I think this is a great opportunity for the right in the US to show the world how it is done……..The Republicans have got nearly all the Federal power in their pocket. They will probably get another conservative Justice up and – game set at match. Four years from now……….bingo, the US is “Great Again” and Utopia is thereby created in the little old US of A………………The rest of the world will recognise Trump as the true Messiah and the Republicans will be in office for another 20 years…………There will not be one bit of rust to be found anywhere in the US………………Meanwhile, we will watch with awe and envy, wondering why we in Oz have not been so lucky to have our very own Trump-type-leader.

  16. To highlight just one of MB’s obvious inanities:

    ‘But I’d rather see his policies be implemented and fail rather than for everything he tries to do to be blocked in every way possible: a process which conceivably might make him more popular in the short term.’

    So if his ‘policies’, if you call brain farts policies, result in a world wide depression, increased global military conflict, and disastrous climate change effects, you’d be happy, just because otherwise he might gain some short term popularity.

    Might make sense to someone I guess.

  17. @adrian

    The funny thing about MB’s little rants is that he would rather have brain farts allowed by Trump, but if Labor in Australia tried it, it be like all hell breaks loose.

  18. guytaur Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:19 pm

    Commentator on CNN openly referring to President Bannon.

    I’m on the view that Steve Bannon is the most dangerous person in the Whitehouse. If enough people starting referring to him as President Bannon, or to the Bannon Administration, then perhaps Trump’s ego might decide that Bannon has to go.

  19. ‘Trump’s idiotic immigration bans are one thing. Of far more importance are his changes to the security instruments. Australia is now allied to an incipiently neo-Nazi, white-supremacist war-machine.’

    Exactly, I’m bored with Trump already. But the way these Trump apologists arrive like a demented tag team is quite uncanny.

  20. The subtext for MB is his not-too-cryptic hostility to Islam, expressed here many times over the past months. There is an insular quality to his views.

  21. Even if Trump had won the popular vote, rather than scraped over the line in the electoral collage while losing the popular vote by 3.5 million, he does not have a mandate to do something illegal. Anyone claiming mandates to break your own constitution, which you are sworn to uphold, based on something as vague as an election promise, is plainly false. Political spin at its worst.

  22. Centrelink issue still alive and kicking:

    Guardian Australia ‏@GuardianAus 3s4 seconds ago

    Centrelink unable to track how many overpayments caused by error

  23. B.C. Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:26 pm
    guytaur Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:19 pm

    “ Commentator on CNN openly referring to President Bannon. ”

    I’m on the view that Steve Bannon is the most dangerous person in the Whitehouse. If enough people starting referring to him as President Bannon, or to the Bannon Administration, then perhaps Trump’s ego might decide that Bannon has to go.

    ******************* ***************************
    BC – you have an kindred soul connection in Glenn Beck

    Ultra-right-wing pundit Glenn Beck compared Bannon to the Nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels, a close ally of Adolf Hitler, and said the Trump campaign was “grooming Brownshirts,” in reference to Nazi paramilitaries. According to Beck, Bannon is “quite possibly the most dangerous guy in all of American politics.”

  24. I’ve been looking for the ReachTel poll referred to earlier in relation the the WA election. Can anyone point me in the right direction please?

  25. “Phillip Coorey ‏@PhillipCoorey 29m29 minutes ago

    Bill Shorten flags federal corruption watchdog”

    A great step forward! Maybe now we will get a conviction politician after all. We just need an election first 🙂 Good afternoon all.

  26. I still can’t decide whether Tricot’s comment is a piss take or he has consumed undiluted Trump Kool Aid.

    I think it’s a piss take. I hope so. Otherwise ❓ ❓ ❓

  27. I’m quite happy with my NBN satellite, but that might be a case of having low expectations to begin with…I don’t seem to experience any outages and it’s certainly faster than the old satellite service.

  28. Briefly,
    Emperor Colin would have had his own private polling telling him the bad news. Otherwise he wouldn’t have entered into preference negotiations with Princess PHONY.

  29. BK Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:34 pm
    player one @ #2172 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:26 pm
    “b.c. @ #2164 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:20 pm”
    “ I have the NBN and it’s good. But then my NBN connection is FTTP. ”

    “I have the NBN satellite and it’s crap. You could get more bandwidth using smoke signals.”

    What are you grizzling about? Aren’t you getting “up to” 100 Mbps?

    ****************************************************

    Telstra 4G network offers speed 10 times faster than NBN

    SYDNEY — Mobile internet has overtaken the NBN on peak speed, with Telstra today launching the world’s first Gigabit LTE network.

    In a media demonstration in Sydney, a computer connected to Gigabit LTE was put through several tests on speedtest.net, connecting to a non-Telstra server. The peak speed reached 886Mbps – showing it was capable of downloading data up to 10 times faster than the maximum a home user can reach on the NBN.

    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/telstra-just-launched-a-mobile-network-10-times-faster-than-the-nbn-2017-1

  30. It’s Necrotising Arachnidism, actually.

    Not when it’s caused by (an orange strain of) golden staph, it’s not.

  31. C@Tmomma
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 3:40 pm
    Briefly,
    Emperor Colin would have had his own private polling telling him the bad news.

    There is almost no Lib ground campaign in many seats….as if they really expect to lose…

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