BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Sketchy though it is, the polling evidence so far this year suggests a turn for the worse for the Turnbull government.

BludgerTrack is being heavily determined at present by the two new year data points from Essential Research, but for what those data points are worth, they suggest the government may have entered a new phase in its polling fortunes. The latest result has wrenched two-party preferred almost a full point in favour of Labor, although this has only yielded a gain of one on the seat projection. The change is a straightforward result of Labor taking primary vote share off the Coalition, with One Nation failing to gain further ground for the first time in a while.

In other news, two by-elections loom in New South Wales:

• Mike Baird’s departure from the premiership and the parliament will result in a by-election for his seat of Manly. Labor is not competitive in the seat, which corresponds with Tony Abbott’s federal seat of Warringah, but it was held by independents for 16 years until Baird unseated David Barr in 2007. Potential Liberal preselection nominees identified in media reports include James Griffin, KMPG director and former Manly deputy mayor; Alex Dore, NSW Young Liberals president and management consultant; Natalie Ward, a private legal practitioner who relinquished a job as a political staffer in 2013 amid controversy over her marriage to David Begg, a co-principal of the lobbying firm associated with moderate powerbroker Michael Photios; Ron Delezio, founder of a hospital charity and father of Sophie Delezio, who suffered horrific injuries when a car crashed into a childcare centre in 2003; and Walter Villatora, a local party identity and advocate for preselection reform.

• The second New South Wales by-election will follow today’s resignation by Health Minister Jillian Skinner as the member for North Shore, ahead of her anticipated demotion to the back bench. North Shore neighbours Manly to the west, and is similarly solid in its conservatism. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Liberal preselection contestants may include Felicity Wilson, a former Property Council executive, and Tim James, former chief of staff to Energy Minister Anthony Roberts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,217 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. mtbw @ #2049 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 1:07 pm

    Simon Katich
    “My only problem with DTT is the length and meandering nature of the posts which obfuscates the argument and alienates the audience further.
    This is only a problem because I know she can write concise and interesting posts. I feel her need to retort to often personal attacks is part of the problem. Although sometimes it’s hard to pick who starts the snowballs descent.”
    Good on you!
    Some on here will never leave her alone and they are usually other females attacking her.

    Yes, a pack of bullies, but they squeal if called out.
    Disagreeing with someone arguments is fair enough, but too often DTT was just bullied.

  2. Falcon WA
    I am always a bit dubious of survey questions of people’s perception of the taxation burden or their willingness to pay for government services and environmental protections. Typically these questions are asked in isolation without due consideration to the actual costs and consequences involved. For example, if you asked folks if they want a cleaner environment you would get a high positive response. If you then suggest it would cost them $X to achieve this outcome, the positive response rate dips markedly.

    On the questions of willing to pay more tax to achieve greater levels of government services, well of course we all think that is great hypothetically. However, when it comes to actually foregoing actual income we may not have the same zeal. Some real evidence of which way people go in this potential trade-off occurs at election time where the electors’ preferences for lower taxes (compared to higher service levels) are revealed, at least in part, through their choice of LNP candidates.
    Cheers

  3. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 4h4 hours ago

    The UK, Canadian & NZ PMs all criticised #muslimban. All have exemption. Any suggestion Turnbull secured exemption via silence is garbage.

  4. For example, if you asked folks if they want a cleaner environment you would get a high positive response. If you then suggest it would cost them $X to achieve this outcome, the positive response rate dips markedly.

    Exhibit A: the carbon price.

  7. Wow, she’s a Benedict Arnold as well:

    Yates fired: full text of White House statement

    The acting Attorney General, Sally Yates, has betrayed the Department of Justice by refusing to enforce a legal order designed to protect the citizens of the United States. This order was approved as to form and legality by the Department of Justice Office of Legal Counsel.

    Ms. Yates is an Obama Administration appointee who is weak on borders and very weak on illegal immigration.

    It is time to get serious about protecting our country. Calling for tougher vetting for individuals travelling from seven dangerous places is not extreme. It is reasonable and necessary to protect our country.

    Tonight, President Trump relieved Ms. Yates of her duties and subsequently named Dana Boente, U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, to serve as Acting Attorney General until Senator Jeff Sessions is finally confirmed by the Senate, where he is being wrongly held up by Democrat senators for strictly political reasons.

    “I am honored to serve President Trump in this role until Senator Sessions is confirmed. I will defend and enforce the laws of our country to ensure that our people and our nation are protected,” said Dana Boente, Acting Attorney General.

  8. Malcolm Turnbull, stop the mealy-mouthed platitudes and stand up for our values
    Kristina Keneally

    Sometimes it’s better to die on your feet than live on your knees.

    Malcolm Turnbull is now living on his knees. He is a man afraid – fearful of his backbench, fearful of the polls, fearful of losing his so-called “refugee deal” with the United States.

    Australia has no need for a fearful prime minister. Right now, we desperately need a conviction leader.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/31/malcolm-turnbull-stop-the-mealy-mouthed-platitudes-and-stand-up-for-our-values

  10. Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust 5m5 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: US President Donald Trump has sacked the acting US Attorney-General after she told lawyers not to defend immigration ban.

  19. The Dems should simply block everything (including Sessions and especially any SC noms). Give em nothing, take em nowhere.

    If Trump had miraculously turned out to be half sensible it would have been high risk, but now? They can quite easily say that drastic measures are required to save the country from Trump and even some Republicans are likely to agree.

  23. Bemused: Disagreeing with someone arguments is fair enough, but too often DTT was just bullied.

    bemused, I’d perhaps agree if she didn’t include comments that were wtte:

    everyone here needs to be educated

    many here do not understand how to write the language

    most here are superficial in their understanding

    many here engage in groupthink

    and the like.

    While they were not bullying comments, they were derogatory, demeaning, patronising, condescending and lacking in empathy.

    I had decided to put DTT’s posts on the STFU list because I no longer wished to read stuff that was so condescending to many people here. Not so much because of her views. If I got angry in some of my posts it was for the above reason … not because of a personal dislike.

    As far as I know, William might be able to tell us, there is no requirement that those contributing to this blog have a certain level of education, nor are they asked to read every possible viewpoint on an issue before adding their voice to a discussion.

  25. Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham 9s10 seconds ago

    The issue for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition is now way beyond strong borders. It’s about whether Australia supports the rule of law

  27. An assured, quick-witted, speech by Bill Shorten at the National Press Club. On top of his brief and giving honest, thoughtful answers to the journalists’ questions.

  30. Members of Trump’s inner circle have warned British officials that it would be counterproductive for Charles to “lecture” Trump on green issues during the president’s June visit to Britain, and that the president will “erupt” if pushed, the Sunday Times of London reported.

    Charles should go for it. It would be very interesting to see Trump erupt, with orange goo coming out of various orifices.

  31. The Dems should simply block everything (including Sessions and especially any SC noms). Give em nothing, take em nowhere.

    I think that there is a strong case for the Democrats to block any Trump nomination to the Supreme court unless Trump accepts Merrick Garland (Obama’s nominee from nearly a year ago). Especially given that on current form anyone Trump nominates is likely to be totally unsuitable – just as likely some fundamentalist, conspiracy nut hanging judge from the Deep South who thinks people of colour are descendents of Satan and Lilith and who expects the Rapture any day now.

    As for blocking other appointments, that’s what the Republicans would have done had Hilary won. It must be tempting, but I think they should only block the clearly unsuitable.

  32. The really interesting question produces clear majorities of people who have been conned into believing ‘Free Trade Agreements’ (sic) are worth the effort.

  35. A R
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 12:57 pm
    My personal view is that the LNP should expect to lose up to 20 seats. It is difficult to find a voter that does not want and does not expect change.

    Be careful not to underestimate the PHON effect. We haven’t had many real datapoints yet about just how far that brand of right-wing nonsense is going to travel in Australia.

    In regional areas and the outer-metro seats in WA, PHON will likely attract a PV of around 1/7 or 1/6. Huge. These voters are mainly disillusioned past-Lib voters and include a lot of a-political/disaffected/disengaged voters. They are sensitised around things like…opposition to privatisation, the shortage of jobs, the weakness in household incomes, the loss of economic and social opportunity, the mismanagement of State finance, frustration with the Federal government, the smash-and-grab approach of politicians to their “entitlement” spending, hostility to the Centrelink over-reach, hostility to changes in pensions, unrest over the cost of living, resentment of the high cost of private health insurance and the behaviour of the banks….among other things.

    These voters very frequently respond positively to Labor campaigning. At these pragmatic levels, the volition of these voters and Labor themes have very over-lap.

    It is worth recalling that a lot of voters really deeply dislike politics and politicians. These voters are not attentive to left/right distinctions and include a disproportionately high share of the PHON-susceptible. This constituency certainly have grievances and in the current climate hope to express them by choosing the obvious anti-politician. They want to vote their disaffection not merely with the LNP but with the-order-as-they-see-it. There are other outlets for voter-frustration, including the Farmer/Fisher/Shooter group, the ACP and other minor totems. All these minor groups should expect to do reasonably well this time.

    It would be a mistake to see this expression as necessarily anti-Labor or pro-Bigot. This expression is a lament – a desire to be taken seriously. Labor does take them seriously. An important part of the campaign is to show this to these voters.

    PHON also have to be careful. They have almost no ability to control their voters. If PHON make the mistake of aligning themselves with the Liberals – of becoming known as proxies for the Liberals – their vote will likely evaporate just as quickly as it has waxed.

  36. Turnbull is weak and pathetic:

    Alice Workman ‏@workmanalice 15m15 minutes ago

    Alice Workman Retweeted Alice Workman

    Plz ignore reports that Dee* has been flown from Nauru to Oz. As of Tuesday, 1pm she was still on Nauru needing emergency c section.

  37. Steve777
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 2:00 pm

    As for blocking other appointments, that’s what the Republicans would have done had Hilary won. It must be tempting, but I think they should only block the clearly unsuitable.

    **********************************
    But that’s the point isn’t it, Steve – can you name just one of Trumps picks that IS suitable ?????? ……..

    they all seem like ultra EXTREME RWNJ’s to me …

  40. Bemused,
    Yes, a pack of bullies, but they squeal if called out.
    Disagreeing with someone arguments is fair enough, but too often DTT was just bullied.

    How convenient to your assertion to ignore the other side of the dtt coin.

    As for myself, and the other ‘females’ who ‘attacked’ dtt, I only ever questioned her bald statements of her truths with verifiable facts that contradicted her bold statements made as if they were the only way any particular situation could be looked at.

    You have also conveniently forgotten to mention the fact that, almost every time dtt’s garbage was exposed as alarmist and counterfactual, that served as the starter’s gun for dtt to go on one of her snarly, belittling tirades.

    But for you there only seems to be one side to the bullying, when verifiable evidence, if you could be bothered to be impartial and objective, suggests otherwise.

  42. Charles should go for it. It would be very interesting to see Trump erupt, with orange goo coming out of various orifices.

    Surely it would be golden, rather than orange.

  45. Michael Kreins ‏@michaelCrayons 10m10 minutes ago

    Sally Yates was essentially fired for upholding an oath to defend the United States Constitution. Let that sink in.

    Ken Layne ‏@KenLayne 25m25 minutes ago

    Any senator who allows Sessions’ nomination to proceed is a *traitor* to America, the U.S. Constitution, and every American ideal.

  46. VP- I think it will create problems for him, because Malcolm will spend the rest of his term being told by his backbench we should be deadbeats like the US>

  47. Briefly

    It is worth recalling that a lot of voters really deeply dislike politics and politicians. These voters are not attentive to left/right distinctions and include a disproportionately high share of the PHON-susceptible.

    This is precisely the demographic that both the alt-left and alt-right target with their “same-same” message. Sadly, it seems to work quite well.

  50. Guardian Australia ‏@GuardianAus 46s47 seconds ago

    Immigration officials coerced Yemenis to sign away green cards, suit claims

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