BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Sketchy though it is, the polling evidence so far this year suggests a turn for the worse for the Turnbull government.

BludgerTrack is being heavily determined at present by the two new year data points from Essential Research, but for what those data points are worth, they suggest the government may have entered a new phase in its polling fortunes. The latest result has wrenched two-party preferred almost a full point in favour of Labor, although this has only yielded a gain of one on the seat projection. The change is a straightforward result of Labor taking primary vote share off the Coalition, with One Nation failing to gain further ground for the first time in a while.

In other news, two by-elections loom in New South Wales:

• Mike Baird’s departure from the premiership and the parliament will result in a by-election for his seat of Manly. Labor is not competitive in the seat, which corresponds with Tony Abbott’s federal seat of Warringah, but it was held by independents for 16 years until Baird unseated David Barr in 2007. Potential Liberal preselection nominees identified in media reports include James Griffin, KMPG director and former Manly deputy mayor; Alex Dore, NSW Young Liberals president and management consultant; Natalie Ward, a private legal practitioner who relinquished a job as a political staffer in 2013 amid controversy over her marriage to David Begg, a co-principal of the lobbying firm associated with moderate powerbroker Michael Photios; Ron Delezio, founder of a hospital charity and father of Sophie Delezio, who suffered horrific injuries when a car crashed into a childcare centre in 2003; and Walter Villatora, a local party identity and advocate for preselection reform.

• The second New South Wales by-election will follow today’s resignation by Health Minister Jillian Skinner as the member for North Shore, ahead of her anticipated demotion to the back bench. North Shore neighbours Manly to the west, and is similarly solid in its conservatism. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Liberal preselection contestants may include Felicity Wilson, a former Property Council executive, and Tim James, former chief of staff to Energy Minister Anthony Roberts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,217 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 41 of 45
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  1. Hi Simon
    Yes. Kemp was at the meeting but not the lady from Mt Lofty ward.
    Four of the councillors who voted for the no wards proposal sat at the front on one side. They had faces like dropped pies as it became apparent to them what a long two hours it would be.
    Spragg copped a lot of flak from the floor.

  2. c@tmomma @ #1996 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 11:42 am

    Lizzie
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 11:31 am
    Bemused
    I ignore most of her dross
    No, you read everything she writes so that you can find something to snipe at.
    As evidenced by the fact that he hasn’t put her on stfu. If he really objected to her stuff he would. Despite his lame protestations that he doesn’t do stfu. It’s just a convenient rejoinder that he has figured out to allow himself to keep stalking her.

    Read my 1998.
    I don’t believe in censorship of any type, even self censorship.
    Most people on PB occasionally post something really worthwhile.
    I tried STFU with GG and Finns and concluded it wasn’t worthwhile.

  3. simon katich @ #1999 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 11:49 am

    ‘Fess has bemused on STFU.
    So the only way she can see posts from bemused, that are directed at her, is when others respond to them.
    If posters are worried about ‘fess feeling stalked I suggest they ignore the relevant posts.

    The suggestion that Confessions is being stalked is a figment of her wild imagination. Or maybe she thinks it adds to her sense of self importance?
    Who cares.

  5. Bemused,
    If you don’t like a comment Confessions has made, you can criticise it without a flippant rejoinder you know.

    Just a friendly suggestion and, yes, I know, pots and kettles. 🙂

  6. I mentioned earlier to watch this space re General Mike Flynn, Trump’s natsec advisor. Just a reminder that he is being investigated by FBI………..

    Michael Flynn is the first person inside the White House under Mr. Trump whose communications are known to have faced scrutiny as part of investigations by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency and Treasury Department to determine the extent of Russian government contacts with people close to Mr. Trump

  7. My only problem with DTT is the length and meandering nature of the posts which obfuscates the argument and alienates the audience further.

    This is only a problem because I know she can write concise and interesting posts. I feel her need to retort to often personal attacks is part of the problem. Although sometimes it’s hard to pick who starts the snowballs descent.

  9. In the past governments were worried about keeping people in than keeping them out. Then came the French Revolution,….

    I guess in the past, governments didn’t provide much for the population: infrastructure, education, health, welfare etc so anyone coming into your country was a positive.

  10. Vic,
    I mentioned earlier to watch this space re General Mike Flynn, Trump’s natsec advisor. Just a reminder that he is being investigated by FBI………..

    I think it’s money to be made in Russia, courtesy of Putin, that is motivating the lot of the scurvy Trump dogs!

  11. “The White House has warned Prince Charles”

    Example of a headline beating up the truth.

    Members of Trump’s inner circle have warned British officials that it would be counterproductive for Charles to “lecture” Trump on green issues during the president’s June visit to Britain, and that the president will “erupt” if pushed, the Sunday Times of London reported.

  13. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38787241

    President Donald Trump is reshuffling the US National Security Council (NSC), downgrading the military chiefs of staff and giving a regular seat to his chief strategist Steve Bannon.
    Mr Bannon, formerly the head of the populist right-wing, Breitbart News website, will join high-level discussions about national security.
    The order was signed on Saturday.
    The director of national intelligence and the joint chiefs will attend when discussions pertain to their areas.

    From the standpoint of a military ally, the US has changed the rules. This is very disturbing.

  18. simon katich @ #2006 Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 12:00 pm

    My only problem with DTT is the length and meandering nature of the posts which obfuscates the argument and alienates the audience further.
    This is only a problem because I know she can write concise and interesting posts. I feel her need to retort to often personal attacks is part of the problem. Although sometimes it’s hard to pick who starts the snowballs descent.

    And I agree, but would add her propensity to push things way beyond any supporting evidence. She takes what could have originally been a reasonable point and over hypes it to the point of absurdity.

  20. The people who comment on DTT are far more tiresome than she is. You don’t have to read her stuff. I’m sure few people do. But you just can’t help yourselves.

  24. If there is a uniform swing of 18.1% (suggested by the ReachTEL poll published in the West Australian today), then these seats will fall to Labor, as shown on Antony Green’s blog:

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2017/01/2017-western-australian-election-electoral-pendulum.html#more

    West Swan (Labor MP) LIB 0.9%
    Belmont (+) LIB 1.0%
    Forrestfield (+) LIB 2.2%
    Perth (+) LIB 2.8%
    Collie-Preston (Labor MP) LIB 2.9%
    Swan Hills LIB 3.7%
    Morley LIB 4.7%
    Balcatta (+) LIB 7.1%
    Mount Lawley LIB 8.9%
    Bicton LIB 10.0%
    Kalamunda LIB 10.3%
    Joondalup (+) LIB 10.4%
    Southern River LIB 10.9%
    Wanneroo LIB 11.0%
    Burns Beach LIB 11.3%
    Pilbara (+) NAT 11.5%
    North West Central (NAT 10.5 v LIB) NAT 11.5%
    Murray-Wellington LIB 12.0%
    Bunbury LIB 12.2%
    Riverton LIB 12.7%
    Dawesville LIB 12.7%
    Darling Range LIB 13.1%
    Kingsley LIB 14.0%
    Warren-Blackwood (NAT 7.2 v LIB) NAT 15.7%
    Hillarys LIB 16.0%
    Kalgoorlie (NAT 3.2 v LIB) NAT 16.5%
    Scarborough LIB 17.3%

    The LNP would be reduced to a rump:

    Jandakot LIB 18.3%
    Carine LIB 18.3%
    Nedlands LIB 19.1%
    Churchlands LIB 20.0%
    South Perth LIB 20.0%
    Cottesloe LIB 21.1%
    Vasse LIB 21.2%
    Central Wheatbelt (NAT 8.9 v LIB) NAT 21.5%
    Geraldton (LIB 10.9 v NAT) LIB 22.8%
    Bateman LIB 23.1%
    Moore (NAT 5.9 v LIB) NAT 23.2%
    Roe (NAT 16.7 v LIB) NAT 27.6%

    My personal view is that the LNP should expect to lose up to 20 seats. It is difficult to find a voter that does not want and does not expect change. The electorate feel they have been lied to by Barnett. They may forgive many things, but deceit is not one of them.

  27. Turnbull continues to give us all a demonstration in weakness. He is the feeble leader of an enfeebled government. They stand for nothing at all…and that is what they are delivering.

  28. On that article in the Australian re Abbott and RET:
    Typically its not the article in the Oz that is the most telling but the rabid right wingers’ comments underneath. Apart from the seeming consensus of coalition supporters on scrapping the RET, the impression that most struck me was the civil war in their ranks re Turnbull/Abbott. It is eerily reminiscent of the Rudd/Gillard supporters’ stoushes on this side of the spectrum.

  29. AB11,
    Antonbruckner11
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 12:18 pm
    The people who comment on DTT are far more tiresome than she is. You don’t have to read her stuff. I’m sure few people do. But you just can’t help yourselves.

    Advocating a form of censorship now? If we find inaccuracies or outright lies in other’s posts we are to walk on by!?! To me that just signifies tacit approval.

    You might operate that way. I don’t.

    Not to mention the high and mighty way dtt proclaimed, loud and long, her absurdities. Even Mr Bowe had finally had enough.

    Simply put, I don’t criticise people unless they are demonstrably wrong.

    And as for your proclamation the other day that posts should not be > 10 lines long, well, I, at least, am not possessed of such a short attention span. Not to mention that no one should be as prescriptive as that. Except Mr Bowe.

    Anyway, I’m off to watch Bill Shorten.

  34. ImaXXXXXandivote
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 12:35 pm

    The contrast between the LNP and Labor is increasingly obvious. Labor not only represent strength of purpose, unity, competence, security and confidence, they signify a commitment to social and economic justice, to practical and necessary reforms.

    The LNP are very clearly unable to respond to the community’s Trump-fed unease. Truth is, the LNP are now a source of this unease. They are a motor of anxiety and discontent. Turnbull is starting to resemble Abbott, who failed because he un-nerved so much of the electorate.

  36. There’s a photo on facebook of Christ standing behind Trump whilst Trump signs an executive order, distributed by some religious group.

    Some wag has captioned it wtte: “This had to be photoshopped because Christ isn’t allowed into America as he’s from the Middle East.”

  38. C@t

    The Oz: “Labor does not have one policy which will create one job”
    Setting up the cynicism on Labor ahead of Bill’s speech.

  39. Trumps acting like a fascist in my view.

    Say what you like about fascists you have to at least admit they have the courage of their convictions.

    Turnbull could never be a fascist.

  42. “Labor does not have one policy which will create one job”

    Indeed. They have multiple policies that will assist in the creation of many many jobs.

    It the Libs who have one policy (business tax cuts) that have despite everything saved one job (Malcolm’s)

  44. My personal view is that the LNP should expect to lose up to 20 seats. It is difficult to find a voter that does not want and does not expect change.

    Be careful not to underestimate the PHON effect. We haven’t had many real datapoints yet about just how far that brand of right-wing nonsense is going to travel in Australia.

  45. Also interesting from Essential is the question on the level of taxation. Big numbers think that large companies, high income earners, mining companies, international companies and religious bodies don’t pay enough tax. Looks like the 50bn tax cut for companies is a loser for the government. Surprisingly when asked about their personal circumstances 47 % of respondents said they paid about the right amount or too little.

  46. Zoomster
    “There’s a photo on facebook of Christ standing behind Trump whilst Trump signs an executive order, distributed by some religious group.
    Some wag has captioned it wtte: “This had to be photoshopped because Christ isn’t allowed into America as he’s from the Middle East.””

    I haven’t seen the pic (sounds hideous). But I bet Christ is depicted as blue-eyed with lily white skin. Just like all 1st century Palestinian Jews. 😛

  47. Zoidlord
    “But Jenny Macklin made changes to Payments under labor gov and now she wants to fight inequity???”

    I do not defend elements of the Labor party that say or do unjust things, but still Zoidlord, that is playing the person and not the argument. Macklin is dead right on this occasion . Do you disagree with her argument or not?

  48. Also interesting from Essential is the question on the level of taxation.

    The really interesting question produces clear majorities of people who have been conned into believing ‘Free Trade Agreements’ (sic) are worth the effort.

  49. Briefly
    The polls are indicative of the loss of support for the LNP. As the support crumbles, it is amplified by the infighting and squabbling in the LNP ranks. It is increasing evidence of this infighting I was really commenting on in my post.

    Hopefully this all leads to a similar position for the LNP in 2019 (if not earlier) as the ALP faced in 2013: People just wanting to get rid of a government they perceived couldn’t govern itself let alone the nation.

  50. Simon Katich
    “My only problem with DTT is the length and meandering nature of the posts which obfuscates the argument and alienates the audience further.

    This is only a problem because I know she can write concise and interesting posts. I feel her need to retort to often personal attacks is part of the problem. Although sometimes it’s hard to pick who starts the snowballs descent.”
    Good on you!
    Some on here will never leave her alone and they are usually other females attacking her.

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