Results from Newspoll and Essential Research have elicited next to no change on BludgerTrack, at least so far as the results are concerned – negligible movement all round on voting intention, although what’s there is enough for the Coalition to claw back a seat in Queensland on the projection. Newspoll provides a set of leadership numbers as always, and here too their effect is negligible.
What is new on BludgerTrack is that it’s now tracking One Nation, although the only hard data here is that Essential Research has been providing since the start of September. Polls that don’t report One Nation still have some influence on them through their “others” results, and the estimated results for them show up as data points on the chart. I’ve implemented a bit of a cheat to get the One Nation trendline started from the beginning by using their national Senate vote of 4.3% as a post-election starting point. However, the “since election” reading on the tables goes off the national House of Representatives result of 1.3%, which is unflattering to them as they only fielded 15 candidates.
Two bits of electoral boundaries news to relate:
• The redistribution of the two federal seats in the Northern Territory has been finalised, with no changes made to September’s draft proposal. Three thousand voters have been transferred from growing Solomon (covering Darwin and Palmerston) to stagnant Lingiari (covering the remainder of the territory), in an area encompassing Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli at the eastern edge of Palmerston, together with the Litchfield Shire areas around Knuckey Lagoon east of Darwin. To the very limited extent that this will have an electoral effect, it will be to strengthen Labor in Solomon and weaken them in Lingiari, the area transferred being conservative-leaning.
• The South Australian state redistribution has been finalised, with a large number of changes made to the draft published in August. These are largely to the benefit of the Liberals, who stand aggrieved by their failure to win government in 2014 despite winning the two-party vote by 53-47. The draft redrew the Labor marginals of Elder and Mawson to make them notionally Liberal. However, they did the opposite in Fisher, a normally conservative-leaning seat that Labor managed to win at a by-election in December 2014 after the death of independent member Bob Such. This seat has been renamed Hurtle Vale, and pushed southwards into the Labor-voting Morphett Vale area.
The new set of changes adds a further two seats to the Liberal column, most notably Colton, where Labor cops a transfer of 8000 voters from Glenelg North and West Beach (currently in Morphett), turning the Labor margin of 2% into a Liberal margin of 3.7%. The other seat is Newland, where there was so little in it that a further 200 voters in Humbug Scrub have been enough to nudge it to the Liberal side of the pendulum. There has also been a further boost to the Liberal margin in Elder, where gains around Lower Mitcham in the east (currently in Waite) push the margin out from 1.1% to 4.3%.
The Liberals has also benefited in Adelaide, where the reversal of a proposal to move Walkerville out of the electorate leaves the margin at 2.0%, compared with 2.5% at the election and 0.6% in the draft; and in the Labor-held seat of Lee, where an extra 4000 voters from Colton reduce the Labor margin from 4.6% to 2.6%.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/calls-for-australia-to-bring-in-more-workers-from-pacific/8114722
Dovey
“If you think that Trump is a problem, you have not appreciated the true awfullness of Pence.
He is the sock puppet of one of the most evil cabals in world history, the Koch brothers and their mates.”
Agree with everything you say. When it comes to Trump and Pence, Pence is the evil of the two lessers. One can regard Trump as a problem AND appreciate the true awfulness of Pence.
As I said, the GOP would probably prefer Pence over Trump. He combines the worst of both the Tea Party and Establishment branches of the party, and is a creature of the execrable Koch brothers.
There used to be a measure that no two countries with a MacDonalds have ever gone to war with each other. I think that has to be updated to ‘no two countries with a Trump tower’ will go to war with each other.
How about as a gift from the nation we give Barangaroo to Trump, everyone wins the apart from Packer.
He might take all asylum seekers from Manus and Nauru.
Dovey
Thanks for that terrifying information. There have already been hints that Trump is a lazy thinker and that Pence is his puppet master. 🙁
[“There are calls this morning for the federal government to allow more workers from Pacific nations into our country.”]
Only if the can scrummage
Lizzie
“There have already been hints that Trump is a lazy thinker ”
That’s just not true. Trump doesn’t think at all. (Lazy – yes; thinker – no.)
Shellbell
A special visa for Islander Forwards. 😀
Shellbell – Doesn’t matter. My theory is that the All Blacks will continue to dominate us until there is a crack-down on Therapeutic Use Exemptions.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/sport/315087/carter-and-rokocoko-test-positive-for-steroids
The heavies in the US Republican Party are starting to take to this alleged Russian tampering –
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38294765
dovey @ #349 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 11:00 am
Since Pence was Trump’s running mate, if the EC were to dump Trump, would they not also dump his running mate?
Lizzie and Kokaru,
Trump is looter, he will leave richer and America poorer.
Pence is funded and backed by ideological zealots with an agenda that they have honed over decades.
take Abbott vs Turnbull.
Abbott full of bluster and a real wrecker, but he did not fundamentally change Australia.
Turnbull, the clever man, did a lot more.
He destroyed the CSIRO. The ABC now has Murdoch management, it will never be the same again. He has destroyed the concept of independence in the federal adminstration: going after Gillian Triggs, and now Finkel.
From now on there is no concept of accountability.
I fear that we will not recover from this government, yet they are babes in the wood compared to Pence and his puppet masters.
I hope Andrews was just mouthing off and won’t actually do this. It’s bizarre.
“Premier Daniel Andrews’ cabinet ministers will have their phones checked in an extraordinary move to hunt down the source of sensitive government leaks.
The plan has left his colleagues flabbergasted and given his internal detractors ammunition with some declaring him “paranoid”.”
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/paranoid-premier-daniel-andrews-orders-investigation-of-his-ministers-phones-after-leaks-20161212-gt9qmb.html
Bemused
“Since Pence was Trump’s running mate, if the EC were to dump Trump, would they not also dump his running mate?”
The EC won’t dump Trump. This is wishful thinking. Hope is a good breakfast but a bad supper.
If Trump falls over of his own accord within his first term (e.g., impeachment), then Pence will be inserted into the Presidency. That’s Pence’s most likely path to (de jure) presidential power.
kakuru @ #364 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 11:41 am
And perhaps this was the plan all along?
This one is for Boerwar
Patti Smith singing for Bob Dylan at the Nobel Prize ceremony
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4Tw7n_oNXk
“Pleasantly warm” in Sydney, bright sunshine, 36 degrees with a hot, dry wind.
Good Morning.
Will Clinton win?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/electoral-college-intelligence-briefing-russia-election_us_584ee466e4b0e05aded4da1b
There are only two options to preserve democracy. College votes for Clinton or another election is caused.
This is a Constitutional crisis for the States as the Siberian Candidate picked Pence as VP
P1
“And perhaps this was the plan all along?”
I don’t think GOP HQ wanted it to turn out this way. Trump scraped into the presidency, and may prove to be a disaster. If so, that’s another Republican president the GOP has to airbrush from recent history (along with the two Bushes).
Once he becomes president, Trump will prove extremely difficult to dislodge. Clinton (Bill, that is) was mired in personal scandals in his first term (mostly fuelled by GOP muckrakers), yet he was never formally impeached. He also won a second term, quite comfortably.
In fact, Bill Clinton was impeached by the House of Representatives on two of four charges, but the Senate failed to find him guilty.
The president and VP are distinct candidates as far as the college is concerned. In early days they didn’t run on a joint ticket and could come from different parties,as you might imagine it didn’t end well.
Given Trump has come this far I cannot see him not becoming president. Even if he shoots someone on 5th Avenue.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/13/any-trump-cuts-to-f-35-project-could-blow-out-cost-in-australia-experts-warn?CMP=soc_568
Clinton was impeached but was acquitted by the Senate.
JR
It depends on on the conclusions the ECV comes to after the intelligence briefings they receive.
Did Russia hack the election?
If so did that effect the election?
Can the ECV vote for the Siberian candidate.
If not the popular vote is clear.
Sso yes its unlikely but then so was the Dismissal of Whitlam by Sir Johmpn Kerr.
Paul Krugman: Donald Trump is the “Siberian candidate”
With the new C.I.A. revelations of Russian meddling in the 2016 election, any doubt that Donald Trump’s narrow win in three swing states is severely tainted would seem to be erased. Paul Krugman begins his Monday columnby pointing out that while the C.I.A. was circumspect in releasing its findings after the vote, the F.B.I. showed no such restraint when it released its damning letter about Clinton, which turned out to be nothing at all, a mere 10 days before election day.
http://www.salon.com/2016/12/12/paul-krugman-donald-trump-is-the-siberian-candidate_partner/
Nate Silver: Clinton Would Have Won Had It Not Been For Comey Email Probe
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton would “almost certainly” have won the election if it had been held before FBI Director James Comey announced the reviewing of the agency’s investigation into her private emails, according to pollster Nate Silver.
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/nate-silver-hillary-clinton-comey-fbi/2016/12/11/id/763384/
diogenes @ #363 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 11:39 am
Just because you are paranoid doesn’t mean they are not out to get you.
It is obvious that someone is being grossly disloyal. If the ‘internal detractors’ are squealing, it’s because they don’t want to be caught out or stopped from perpetrating their disloyalty.
TPOF – I would have thought that, in this day and age, having your phones checked is a pretty basic precaution.
Where is Essential?
Be very sure the US is going to get very ugly as leaks will come from aggreived intelligence operatives due to Trump’s dismissal of the report reinforcing thenfailure to get daily intel brifeing as tpast President’s have done
https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/12/13/voters-not-keen-on-a-new-conservative-party/
Dec 13, 2016
Voters not keen on a new conservative party: Essential
Not a huge amount of love for Making Australia Great Again.
Josh Taylor Journalist
Coalition voters are split on whether they would defect to a new conservative party if its members included former prime minister Tony Abbott, today’s Essential Report reveals.
While conservative politicians like Cory Bernardi and George Christensen toy with the idea of a new party in a bid to lure back Coalition voters defecting to One Nation and Abbott continues to snipe and undermine, the report shows that 41% of Coalition voters would likely vote for the new party, while 41% would be unlikely to. Those who vote for parties other than Labor, the Coalition, and the Greens (such as One Nation) are unlikely to vote for the new party, with 63% saying they wouldn’t vote for the party, versus 25% who say they would.
………………………..
Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest since he became prime minister, at 34% approval and 46% disapproval. He remains just slightly ahead of Bill Shorten, who is on an approval rating of 35% and disapproval rating of 38%. However, Turnbull is still viewed as the better prime minister to Shorten at 39% to 28%.
Labor has maintained its lead over the government with a two-party-preferred 53% to 47%, up one point from last week. Labor and the Coalition are a dead heat on primary vote at 37% each. One Nation has dropped one point in first-party preferences down to 7%.
David Gregory on CNN regarding Russian Hack.
There is too much nonsensical speculation over the US Presidency. Whatever might have driven the outcome, the election is over and, according to the rules in place, Trump won. The Electoral College will elect him President and he will be inaugurated on 20 January (subject only to him not dropping dead beforehand).
What happens after that is anyone’s guess, but there is little chance his own side will move to impeach him unless a scandal of double Nixonian proportions blows up. The blowback from those who voted for him as an expression of great disaffection for the alleged power and money elites would see this as further betrayal by those elites.
We are in uncharted territory here in regard to Trump’s presidency, but I find it hard to believe it will not end in tears for lots of Americans.
antonbruckner11 @ #378 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 12:31 pm
Agreed.
Does this mean that, this week, Essential’s LNP vote came in below 37 (maybe hit 36) and got smoothed out to 37?
Thanks Leroy
True – Bill Clinton was impeached in the House, but acquitted by the Senate.
leroy lynch @ #380 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 12:34 pm
I am eagerly awaiting Rex Douglas’s analysis. I wonder what he will say?
Given Trump’s attitude towards ‘losers’; there is no way he would go quietly, even if impeached.
How many polls to go for Truffles to match Abbott’s losing streak ? A number of losing polls in a row that I think Mal used as a reason to knife Abbott.
Re the Essential poll, “how likely would you be to vote for them” sounds a bit similar to those bogus “would you consider voting for” poll questions you see occasionally by minor polling companies working on a private commission. Its not asking the voter to make a firm commitment, more asking them if they are open minded to the idea in theory. Everyone likes to think they are open minded, but most will revert to normal habits come the day. Such questions are especially unreliable for new political parties. The Wikileaks party had pretty high “would you consider” figures, got a minuscule vote in reality. The only question that matters is “if there was an election today, who would you vote for”.
player one @ #387 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 12:45 pm
I hope that’s not a serious question…..
Ridiculous overstatement. Get a grip, Guytaur.
BB
That was a quote
As is so often the case, what is really interesting is the boss’s response:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/minutes-from-retirement-he-blasted-his-bosses-in-a-companywide-email-20161212-gt9s0b.html
BB
BTW
If you think it was not an act of wat its you who needs to rethink.
There is no doubt cyberwarfare is happening.
Russia has launched a direct attack on the democracy of the US
Alan Davisgu
Dylan Voller is the young man who was treated very badly by the Guards in the Don Dale Centre in the Northern Territory and he is before a Parliamentary Commission.
He is older now and more articulate and I hope his treatment is all exposed.
You just have to shake your head in disbelief that, according to Trump’s biographer, ‘a cross between a junkie and a chicken’, could win the US Presidential election. Also that that same person could so quickly and easily trash the hard-won reputations of American institutions like the CIA. No wonder the Russians are overjoyed:
HACK ATTACK
The Kremlin Gloats Over Trump’s CIA Tantrum
Nobody in Moscow is admitting Putin or his minions ordered attacks on the U.S. elections, but the Kremlin is pleased as punch with the result.
Anna Nemtsova
ANNA NEMTSOVA
12.13.16 8:01 AM ET
MOSCOW — The news that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump called CIA claims about Russia’s involvement in the election process “ridiculous” was cause for celebration in Russia.
“Finally, the U.S. president does not trust CIA!” exclaimed one of Trump’s many Russian fans.
Authorities, who just a few weeks ago were busy training people to hide in bunkers in case the Americans dropped nuclear bombs, now applauded the U.S. president-elect and welcomed his incoming administration’s “a dream team.”
To Moscow officials every step Trump takes, including his harsh criticism of the Central Intelligence Agency, sounds like a victory for President Vladimir Putin.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/12/12/the-kremlin-gloats-over-trump-s-cia-tantrum.html?via=newsletter&source=DDAfternoon
“Davidson”
I love this line:
Plausible deniability — and even implausible deniability — is its standard operating procedure.
Leroy Lynch @12:34. Those numbers say that many Coalition voters would consider a new conservative party. They would not all go across but even if 25% defected, that would cause massive damage to the “Liberals”.
Go on Tony, Go on Cory, Erica: do it! You know you want to.