Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After a bit of a blip over the past month or so, Essential Research finds Labor’s recovering its solid post-election lead.

The latest fortnightly rolling average of federal voting intention for Essential Research returns Labor’s two-party lead to 53-47, after walking a point at a time from 53-47 four weeks ago to 51-49 a fortnight ago and now back again. Both major parties are now at 37% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one and Labor up one, while One Nation comes off a point from last week’s high to 7%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady at 9% and 3%. The poll also features its monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 34% and up two on disapproval to 46%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 35% and, oddly, down five to 38%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is now at 39-28, down from 40-28, leaving for a remarkably high “don’t know” remainder. The most interesting of the survey’s remaining findings is the overwhelming support recorded for an increase in the minimum wage, with 80% approving and 11% disapproving. Another question canvases whether respondents would be “likely” to vote for a new conservative party formed around the likes of Tony Abbott, for which 23% answered in the affirmative, although polling exercises of this kind have shown themselves to be of very little value in the past.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,620 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. CTaR1
    Your badgering of the anti-badgers reminds me of Grey Mangrove replantings in WesternPort Bay.
    Huge efforts (including efforts of schoolchildren) to grow them from seed and then plant them individually in a pretty rugged landscape – windswept mudflats – were negated by nimbies who ripped them out as they were planted.

  2. Jenko ‏@7_jenkinson · 11m11 minutes ago

    Jenko Retweeted Michael Pascoe

    I like to think of @SenatorMRoberts as being to climate science what 2 minute noodles are to gourmet cooking.

  3. Boerwar

    negated by nimbies who ripped them out as they were planted.

    I remember the publicity for the mangrove planting, had no idea the fools pulled them out, but mangroves have always had a bad name for suburban mentalities – nasty, dirty things. We had a fight over mangrove clearing around Mackay, I think. Not sure whether we won.

  4. BB

    You’d be waiting a long time for a train at Manly railway station.

    It’s just a euphemism for ‘get f#cked, we’re rich and you’re not’.

  5. Bw /Lizzie

    were negated by nimbies who ripped them out as they were planted.

    There are not only ‘nutters’ on the left and right of us but also the ignorant who lust after ‘sandy beaches’.

  6. Lizzie
    Interestingly enough there are ecologically-minded people who want to stop mangroves (naturally) taking over prime palearctic wader habitat on the Hunter.

  7. lizzie
    #1590 Monday, December 19, 2016 at 4:33 pm
    Thanks for the story about the electronic fence posts.
    Another big success story for Australia.
    Our charming prime minister has at last won the race to the bottom as regards prime ministers.
    And the fence story once again highlights our success with the world FWIT competition. Our boys and girls are the equal of drongos, dimwits, nongs, (insert own descriptor here)…………, anywhere in the world.
    Proud. I am proud, and if Abbee the regimental dog was interested she would pretend to be proud as well.
    Stories such as this are what will make Australia just as great as the U.S. of A under Mr. Trump. 😛

  8. Famous last words?

    Sky News Australia
    3 mins ·
    One Nation leader Pauline Hanson says she is ‘as confident as anyone can possibly be’ there are no bad apples in her batch of 36 newly-announced Queensland election candidates.

  9. Appropos of nothing in particular, here are some funny, unusual and bizarre place names in Australia, with map references:

    Foul Bay, SA, looks a nice place. There’s No Where Else, Tasmania, not exactly in the middle of Nowhere but about 30km from Devonport. Then there’s Cock Wash in the Adelaide Hills, which will probably get a name change if it’s ever “developed”.

  10. Evening all. Has anyone been following the bizarre antics of former One Nation Senator Culleton in the Federal Court today on ANOTHER matter where he allegedly owes $200,000? He said this:
    “”I was approached by Pauline Hanson and look at the work that I have done in a short time. I am getting all this attention in the courts because I am actually getting stuff done.”

    Seriously? I think it would be more accurate to say that he is getting all this attention in the courts because of all the stuff he has done in the past.

  11. With the new tech economy becoming a significant player in the job market over the coming years maybe Marx,s views on Capital will again be revisited. Rather than looking at ways on reducing Corporate tax which will only further continue the rush for these big companies to replace employment with Robots Government needs to look at taxing Robots to provide incomes for Governments to fund programmes and the necessary provision of incomes to keep the consumer keeping the capitalist system continuing to churn up the limited resources on this planet

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