Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After a bit of a blip over the past month or so, Essential Research finds Labor’s recovering its solid post-election lead.

The latest fortnightly rolling average of federal voting intention for Essential Research returns Labor’s two-party lead to 53-47, after walking a point at a time from 53-47 four weeks ago to 51-49 a fortnight ago and now back again. Both major parties are now at 37% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one and Labor up one, while One Nation comes off a point from last week’s high to 7%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady at 9% and 3%. The poll also features its monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 34% and up two on disapproval to 46%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 35% and, oddly, down five to 38%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is now at 39-28, down from 40-28, leaving for a remarkably high “don’t know” remainder. The most interesting of the survey’s remaining findings is the overwhelming support recorded for an increase in the minimum wage, with 80% approving and 11% disapproving. Another question canvases whether respondents would be “likely” to vote for a new conservative party formed around the likes of Tony Abbott, for which 23% answered in the affirmative, although polling exercises of this kind have shown themselves to be of very little value in the past.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,620 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Better economic managers?

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 51s52 seconds ago

    The AEC confirms it spent $6m on preparing for the same-sex marrgae plebiscite in #MYEFO

  2. I’ve missed ScoMo :clap hands: but found this on Twitter.

    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham · 44m44 minutes ago

    #MYEFO: govt plans to save $2.1b over four years by even harsher crackdowns on welfare payments


  3. So magic thinking will save em $2.1b. Magic thinking never helped Swan and he at least had a clue. These clowns are going to cause a train wreck.

  4. ‘Reign in Spending’
    ‘Reign in Spending’
    ‘Reign in Spending’

    That’s all I heard in the car from Scott Morrison, like a bleedin’ squawking galah, before I had to turn it off and put some music on.

    I think this lot will be happy when they’ve thrown everyone off their Social Security payment, they are homeless and being looked after by the Churches.

    And while I’m at it, Mungo Maccasllum can feck off with his own ‘universally agreed lacklustre Opposition’ squawk! He just is too old now to admit that Labor is taking up to the Craven Coward of a PM and his tawdry government.

  5. Better economic managers, my ass! Rome burns while this lot faff about at the margins with pensions and welfare payments. From today’s crikey:

    A spike in resource prices has failed to make up for declining wages and tax receipts in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), causing a $10 billion blowout in the budget deficit, but the government is still claiming the budget will be back in the black by 2020-21.

    The underlying cash deficit this financial year is $37.1 billion, compared to the $36.5 billion forecast in the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook, but over the four years in the forward estimates, the deficit is getting worse in total by $10 billion from $84.9 billion to $94.9 billion, compared to the PEFO predictions. The biggest blowout comes in 2018-19, when the deficit will blow out from the projected $15.4 billion to $19.7 billion in that year.

  6. Morrison talking about MYEFO immediately refers to Labor’s “policy decisions” at the last election… when they were in opposition?? Oh yes, it is all Labor’s fault! No mention of the Coalition’s policy promises, sadly unmet.

    Although, if Labor is responsible for running the country, shouldn’t Morrison split his Treasurer paycheck with Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen? After all, Morrison seems to think that Labor is responsible for all the outcomes, so surely they should share the salary for doing the work? Good news for others too, assuming Turnbull and Cormann will be sharing their paychecks as well, given they also admit it is Labor, and not them, that are responsible for how the country is run.

    Also, isn’t it remarkable how long lasting the Rudd-Gillard reforms are? Three years after leaving office, they are still responsible for everything.

  7. These two tweets don’t look good together.

    Bevan Shields ‏@BevanShields · 1h1 hour ago

    Budget update cuts $85 million from aged care #auspol #MYEFO

    Bevan Shields ‏@BevanShields · 1h1 hour ago

    Budget update includes $36 million for more political staffers….
    #auspol #MYEFO

  8. I’ve not seen it at all widely publicized, but McGowan was promised two extra staffers by Turnbull in the period between the election and the final declaration of the count.

    Was this a one off for her or did all independents get this offer?

  9. You watching Adrian ? 🙂

    Jonathan Green ‏@GreenJ · 1h1 hour ago

    reporting MYEFO:

    ABC: Deficit to increase by $10bn
    Guardian: Deficit $10bn worse
    Australian: Budget will hit surplus goal

    … you decide.

  10. Sky News Australia
    6 mins ·
    Shadow Finance Minsiter Jim Chalmers says the government ‘promised jobs and growth… but they have delivered precisely the opposite’. #MYEFO #auspol

  11. I am quite sick of hearing “Australia is in the box seat” in the cricket. It is a cliche and is being shown to be untrue, with Pakistan now needing only 73 runs to win the Gabba test. It isn’t as though 73 runs haven’t been scored before, across 9th and 10th wicket partnerships.

    Australia needs to have its nose rubbed right in it.For too long they have been bad sports, and everworse winners. They need to taste some humble pie and I hope the Pakis trounce them.

    If nothing else it might put a sock in the cliche-ridden mouths of the so-called “expert”commentators.

  12. ABC: Deficit to increase by $10bn
    Guardian: Deficit $10bn worse
    Australian: Budget will hit surplus goal

    What I now have from ABC is: “The federal budget deficit this financial year has been revised down by $600 million to $36.5 billion”

    And 9 News is similar: “Year’s deficit revised down by $600 million as government stands by 2021 surplus”

  13. Its pretty simple voters punish parties cutting services. A certain standard is expected. Revenue raising is the answer and thats the message from voters.

  14. Imagine how it would be right now if Labor had just scraped over the line by one or two seats at the last election – or worse still was in minority government. Their reputation as financial managers would be absolutely trashed (unfairly) once again, especially if the triple A rating goes down the drain. Instead it is the Liberal brand that will take the hit.

    This is exactly why I have always felt that the last election was a good one to marginally lose. Labor will have much better fish to fry in 2019. I expect them to win easily.

  15. Pawlines response to Cullerton resigning is fun … “when we learned of section 44”

    WTF – was she in some sort of school class?

    It just reeks of the incompetence of her and her ‘Chief of Staff’.

    Basically ‘we’ didn’t notice that Cullerton is a dickhead.

  16. BB

    “Australia needs to have its nose rubbed right in it.For too long they have been bad sports, and everworse winners. They need to taste some humble pie and I hope the Pakis trounce them.”

    This may have been true in the past, but under Steve Smith there is a much less vociferous approach to Australian cricket by a more humble side. Even still, other nations have been just a superb guilty in the past with their sledging, but do not receive the same criticism a second Australia.

    Plus I would rather a few loudmouths in our side than systematic match fixers as Pakistan have had in the past. There I still much faith for that nation to restore and their performance in this test is ideal in that regard.

  17. At the end of January, unless something very strange happens, all four major powers in the world will be ruled by authoritarian figures. Vladimir Putin in Russia, Xi Jinping in China, Narendra Modi in India and Donald Trump in the US.

    And what do WE get?

    A gutless dickhead.

  18. Lizzie

    If Tones special projects have been dumped, can we expect the mother of all dummy spits?

    An appearance at Manly railway station handing out ‘How not to vote’ for Malcolm cards?

  19. Once back in court Senator Culleton asked how proceedings could continue to which Justice Barker responded “I’m running this court, not you.”

    This would be a novel approach were Turnbull to tell Bernardi, Abbott and Abetz: “I’m running this government, not you”.

  20. Morons!

    Thieves in Tasmania are stealing electronic fence posts designed to save the lives of endangered Tasmanian devils.

    The thefts have bewildered the manufacturers, who say the $145 wildlife warning devices serve no purpose other than deterring wildlife and have limited resale value.

    A toolbox containing 20 of the devices was stolen from the Murchison Highway near Waratah last month, while workers were updating the fence.

    Jack Swanepoel, director of Wildlife Safety Solutions, the company that produces the devices, said the theft left him “pretty stunned”.

    “It’s no use for them whatsoever, these devices,” he said. “People might think they can keep the foxes out of their place with them, but they only work on roads with headlights aiming at them.”

    The devices are triggered by car headlights to emit a high-pitched noise and a flash of light, and are designed to scare wildlife off the road before the vehicle arrives.

    They were trialled at Arthur River on Tasmania’s south-east coast in 2014 and found to reduce the number of animals killed by about 60%.

  21. An appearance at Manly railway station handing out ‘How not to vote’ for Malcolm cards?

    You’d be waiting a long time for a train at Manly railway station.

  22. Ariane Wilkinson, a lawyer at Environmental Justice Australia said the Turnbull government could back an application from Alcoa, but that would mean very little because of the independence of the board of the CEFC, and it would be unlawful to direct the CEFC to invest in a particular project.

    Wilkinson said it would also be inconsistent for the relevant ministers to give a direction that “was inconsistent with the purpose of the CEFC Act, which is to facilitate increased flows of finance into the clean energy sector”.

  23. Bwah-ha-ha-ha!

    A grass named after Federal Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce has been recalled after it was found to pose serious health risks to livestock.

    At the time of its release Barnaby Tall Fescue, or Barnaby Grass as it is more commonly known, was described as “persistent” and “bred in the New England”.

    The fescue was meant to be free of edophytes — a fungus that lives naturally in a plant and can be toxic to grazing livestock.

  24. Lizzie


    Never under estimate or over estimate the turkeys.

    In England serious amounts of money was spent on well researched fences and deterrent ‘sounds’ to get Badgers (More of them now than have been for hundreds of years) herded through the culverts under the proposed high speed rail if they wanted to cross.

    ‘Not in my back yard’ people trashed the lot.

  25. A grass named after Federal Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce has been recalled after it was found to pose serious health risks to livestock.

    Oh that’s priceless!

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