Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After a bit of a blip over the past month or so, Essential Research finds Labor’s recovering its solid post-election lead.

The latest fortnightly rolling average of federal voting intention for Essential Research returns Labor’s two-party lead to 53-47, after walking a point at a time from 53-47 four weeks ago to 51-49 a fortnight ago and now back again. Both major parties are now at 37% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one and Labor up one, while One Nation comes off a point from last week’s high to 7%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady at 9% and 3%. The poll also features its monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 34% and up two on disapproval to 46%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 35% and, oddly, down five to 38%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is now at 39-28, down from 40-28, leaving for a remarkably high “don’t know” remainder. The most interesting of the survey’s remaining findings is the overwhelming support recorded for an increase in the minimum wage, with 80% approving and 11% disapproving. Another question canvases whether respondents would be “likely” to vote for a new conservative party formed around the likes of Tony Abbott, for which 23% answered in the affirmative, although polling exercises of this kind have shown themselves to be of very little value in the past.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,620 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. For school leavers, sympathy and good luck on the jobs front. With only 39% employed under age 24, it is important they do not blame themselves. It is not their fault.

  3. Thus Spake Mungo: Malcolm in a muddle

    Malcolm Turnbull has ended the year in a morass of negatives, and we’re not just talking about economic growth, consumer confidence and employment statistics, dire as they are.

    Perhaps the more worrying downer is that of the polls, not only is his government failing to make any headway against what is universally regarded as a pretty lacklustre opposition, but his own negative popularity is continuing to plummet.

    So what is to be done in the way of draining the swamp, as his new best chum likes to call it

    But it may, just may, be possible to get rid of some of the more primitive and incompetent life forms that inhabit the cesspool. It would be tempting to start with the leader himself, whose devolution has descended almost into fossil form: no policies, no ideas, no convictions, no courage.

    Chief among them, of course, is the amphibian George Brandis, totally out of depth even in the shallows of the senate. Only his puffed-up vanity has kept him afloat

    Nigel Scullion, is also for the heave-ho

    we are also told that Marise Payne’s invalidity may become permanent at the hands of the ever voluble Christopher Pyne.

    Take Scott Morrison – please, take him. Apart from blaming the Labor Party for everything in the past, present and presumably future, he has actually achieved very little.

    Julie Bishop, of course, is not going anywhere. Not now, not ever.

    Turnbull’s spokesandroid, Matthias Corman, widely praised for his communication skills (which means repeating the same slogans over and over again)

    Simon Birmingham has flung himself into the Education maze but offered no real way out. Christian Porter has decided that the safest course is to go on fighting the war on dole bludgers, although it turns out most of them are pensioners.

    Josh Frydenberg has dropped from being golden boy to lead balloon for being too indiscreet – or honest, as some would call it. Even Peter Mutton Dutton is regarded as a success, apparently for being the kind of one dimensional thug who used to give the Queensland Drug Squad a bad name.

    So it may well be that even if Turnbull has the will and nerve to try and move his ministry a few steps up the evolutionary ladder (a highly dubious proposition in itself) finding convenient places to accommodate them without serious disruption will prove impossible. Just another prime ministerial dilemma: so much swamp, so little refuge.

    MORE : http://www.echo.net.au/2016/12/thus-spake-mungo-malcolm-muddle/

  5. The federal government won’t be shelving any of its election commitments despite a deteriorating budget position, Treasurer Scott Morrrison insists.

    But the coalition needed partners in the parliament to help it return the budget to balance.

    So it will be Labor’s fault if they don’t support illogical and unfair cuts to expenditure.
    As predicted, out early to blame everyone else but themselves.
    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/12/19/no-retreat-our-promises-morrison

  6. They are right to worry about households. But they should worry about one other effect more. This will be an indelible stain on the Coalition brand for decades. This is its Banana Republic moment, all the more damaging given its brand halo is its “economic” and in particular “budget management” credentials. What answer does the government have? A corporate tax cut that the drover’s dog knows will make the budget and fairness worse.

    This is a government hemmed in by its own history of lies and ineptitude, a dead man walking in a hall of mirrors from which it haplessly beseeches life.

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/12/delusional-government-deserves-downgrade/

  7. Lizzie

    This is a government hemmed in by its own history of lies and ineptitude, a dead man walking in a hall of mirrors from which it haplessly beseeches life.

    A bit of tell it like it is!

  9. Good lord, the start of that Vanstone article is up there with ‘It was a dark and rainy night…”

    All those ‘will/won’t’ ‘may/may not’ statements of the bl**dy obvious suggests she’s modelling herself on Grattan.

  10. “what is universally regarded as a pretty lacklustre opposition”

    Journalists love to use the term ‘universally regarded’ when contextualising their own opinion.

  11. Scotty still seems intent on ‘reparing the budget’ and ‘revenue space’ by giving $50B in tax reductions to big companies.

  12. DQ – They also love having a slap at the other side so they don’t look biased (when the honest thing to do is look biased)

  13. Is Chris Richardson right when he says that Negative Gearing wouldn’t be a problem if the Capital Gains Tax 50% discount was wound back?

    Superficially it’s an attractive idea.

  15. ‘Journalists love to use the term ‘universally regarded’ when contextualising their own opinion.’

    I think that the ubiquitous Chris Richardson was described in similar terms on AM this morning. Of course he blamed the deteriorating budget position on ‘oppositions who refused to compromise’, so it’s no wonder he is so widely respected on the ABC.

  19. Thanks BK
    Thanks for this mornings roundup.
    I am starting to think I should have told my GP (last Friday) about my dark thoughts and suicidal ideation.
    Second thought. No amount of chemically induced happiness would wipe out the depressive nature of our Federal Government.
    So the solution now becomes clear:-
    Children – behave yourselves and repeat after me –

    Dear Messrs. Turnbull, Morrison, Abbott, Dutton, Cormann and the rest of the self serving a***oles (you know who you are ?); may your chickens turn into rampaging emus and kick shit out of your self image and destroy your air of superiority; in the meanwhile GFY.

    All in a friendly Christmas spirit, of course.
    Love, hugs and kisses from the folks here in the outer darkness of your largess.
    😥

  20. BK,
    Thanks again for the links BK. I start most days by working through your dawn patrol post!
    FWIW, I think the dawn patrol would be even better if you left out the sad, ugly, spiteful and self obssessed cartoons of Bill Leak. This would limit Bill’s reach to the minuscule readership of the GG, which would be a good thing.

  21. ‘Adrian – Richardson was little Johny’s favourite economist.’

    No wonder he’s on our ABC all the time.
    Also I always think that if someone really is widely respected, you don’t need to tell everyone.

  22. Budget update today:

    – RIP Jobsen Groeth

    – Goodbye AAA rating

    – Hello debt and deficit disaster

    – Welcome to a miserable Christmas for Australia

    How proud must Turnbull and Morrison be feeling today!

  23. Lizzie

    It wasn’t initially clear to me who Leak was making fun of.
    Doesn’t matter. Suicide is always a great source of ha-ha’s.

  24. Hmmm

    Sky News Australia
    Sky News Australia – Verified account ‏@SkyNewsAust

    Top Clinton aide hints Trump-Russia collusion http://bit.ly/2i47wXZ
    Embedded image
    1:25 PM – 18 Dec 2016
    3 RETWEETS1 LIKE

    4

    1

    Sky News Australia
    1h1 hour ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Top Clinton aide hints Trump-Russia

  26. How proud must Turnbull and Morrison be feeling today!

    You’d be wrong if you didn’t think in many ways Libs would consider that ‘mission accomplished’.

  28. Lizzie

    They sold everything not bolted down.

    We really must talk about the Howard and Costello economic disaster

    .“What has happened under Costello’s watch is a major financial disaster.”…………….According to a Treasury report in 2008, between 2004 and 2007, the mining boom and a robust economy added $334 billion in windfall gains to the budget surplus. Of this, the Howard Government spent, or gave away in tax cuts, $314 billion, or 94 per cent.

    Sales of businesses yielded another $72 billion. And yet Australia’s cash in the bank when Howard left office was a pathetically low 7.3% of GDP.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/we-really-must-talk-about-the-howard-and-costello-economic-disaster,5686

  29. Poroti

    I would love to see ScoMo or Turnbull interrogated on those conclusions. Abbott is a lost cause, and the rest of them just mouth the day’s talking points.

  30. Poroti

    And yet Australia’s cash in the bank when Howard left office was a pathetically low 7.3% of GDP.

    Costello was adept at playing tricks with the Cash at Bank.

    At the end of one FY he had all the Government Business Enterprises do a journal to move their Cash at Bank to the C’wlth (and then reverse the journal on the 1st of July).

  31. According to a Treasury report in 2008, between 2004 and 2007, the mining boom and a robust economy added $334 billion in windfall gains to the budget surplus. Of this, the Howard Government spent, or gave away in tax cuts, $314 billion, or 94 per cent.

    It was economic vandalism, and we’re sorely paying for it now.

  32. ‘It was economic vandalism, and we’re sorely paying for it now.’

    Yes, and to think that Little Johnny is a hero among some sections of the media. For what, isn’t exactly clear…

  33. Adrian:

    Costello is also remembered fondly by some too. As if their time in office was some great golden age where nothing went wrong, instead of the biggest rip-off of future generations ever.

  36. GOOD
    9 mins ·
    So far, Hillary Clinton has received over 300,000 more votes than Obama did in 2012 and almost 3 million more than Trump. It’s time we rethink our voting process.

  43. ‘Turnbull is always gunna do something, but he never does it.’

    But the fact that he never does is all Labor’s fault according to Eric Abetz on AM this morning.

  46. But the fact that he never does is all Labor’s fault according to Eric Abetz on AM this morning.

    I think you and I are the only ones here who listen to AM, Adrian. For myself, I excuse it on the grounds of comedy relief.

    Abetz was asked a question about the Republic and within 14 words had gotten onto Border Protection.

    This is the brilliant orator who, when asked by Andrew Bolt to “Name three things Turnbull actually stands for?” answered , “Innovation. Innovation.Innovation”.

    Jesus, those were the days when the entire nation was about to discover the joy of writing apps and becoming millionaires overnight. At least Bolt had the freedom to laugh out loud in Abetz’s face. ABC interviewers can’t afford that kind of attitude. Or then again… maybe they take him seriously? Nah, can’t be that… no-one’s THAT stupid.

    So now the Prince Of Innovation has fucked the NBN, closed down any new kind of thinking on, or way of dealing with house prices, given up getting the states to raise their own income taxes, botched the Renewable Energy Revolution, and failed to think up any ways of creating jobs and growth,and the best AM can do is to get Abetz onto their show to answer questions about the Republic, but change the subject in 10 seconds to how it’s all Labor’s fault and, y’know, keeping our borders safe.

    I’m surprised he didn’t bring up Uncle Otto, who employed crude but effective ways of controlling the riff-raff: send them off for gassing.

  47. ‘So now the Prince Of Innovation has fucked the NBN, closed down any new kind of thinking on, or way of dealing with house prices, given up getting the states to raise their own income taxes, botched the Renewable Energy Revolution, and failed to think up any ways of creating jobs and growth,and the best AM can do is to get Abetz onto their show to answer questions about the Republic, but change the subject in 10 seconds to how it’s all Labor’s fault and, y’know, keeping our borders safe.’

    Kind of sums up the problems with the ABC’s political coverage.
    And before then we were treated to Chris Richardson’s little homilies for added comedic relief.

  50. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 2m2 minutes ago

    Cormann confirms the structure of NBN now with the loan is for future privatisation but can’t say when it’ll happen.

    As I and many others have predicted.

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