Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After a bit of a blip over the past month or so, Essential Research finds Labor’s recovering its solid post-election lead.

The latest fortnightly rolling average of federal voting intention for Essential Research returns Labor’s two-party lead to 53-47, after walking a point at a time from 53-47 four weeks ago to 51-49 a fortnight ago and now back again. Both major parties are now at 37% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one and Labor up one, while One Nation comes off a point from last week’s high to 7%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady at 9% and 3%. The poll also features its monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 34% and up two on disapproval to 46%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 35% and, oddly, down five to 38%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is now at 39-28, down from 40-28, leaving for a remarkably high “don’t know” remainder. The most interesting of the survey’s remaining findings is the overwhelming support recorded for an increase in the minimum wage, with 80% approving and 11% disapproving. Another question canvases whether respondents would be “likely” to vote for a new conservative party formed around the likes of Tony Abbott, for which 23% answered in the affirmative, although polling exercises of this kind have shown themselves to be of very little value in the past.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,620 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 33
1 2 … 33

  1. ‘Everyone will interpret the disappointing Naplan results according to their ideological position and say we need more of whatever they are trying to push.’

    To an extent, but the point is that nobody questions the veracity of the tests themselves or the fact that many students are coached to a ridiculous extent to manufacture ‘good’ results for their schools. And that’s just for a start.

    Like most ‘debates’ in Australia, we barely touch the surface of the real issues, and then wonder why the resultant conclusions lead us nowhere.

    Once upon a time you could expect the ABC to delve a little deeper, but they’ve gleefully dumbed themselves down to match their commercial counterparts.

  3. What is ‘odd’ about Bill Shorten’s Disapproval rating being down 5%? He’s obviously performing as a leader should and people generally approve of that. Especially when Malcolm Turnbull is performing like an obsequious toady to the Lunar Right.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers and thanks William!

    Ross Gittins says what so many are thinking – If ever there was proof that modern-day politicians are more followers than leaders, Malcolm Turnbull must be it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-has-proved-himself-a-follower-not-a-leader-20161213-gt9utp.html
    NSW Education Minister Adrian Piccoli expresses his frustrations in this op-ed.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-federal-government-needs-to-stop-bickering-about-gonski-funding-so-we-can-start-fixing-schools-20161212-gt9hro.html
    Norm Abjorensen writes that Trump is doing to politics what punk did to music. A very interesting comparison.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/trump-the-punk-rocker-of-global-politics-20161212-gt9rki.html
    David Wroe reports on the savage audit of the NSW RSL. By no means is this story over.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/savage-audit-finds-rsl-boss-resigned-over-credit-card-expenses-not-health-as-claimed-20161213-gta07u.html
    Dr Karl tells us that heatwaves are more dangerous than bushfires and they are going to get worse.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/heatwaves-are-more-deadly-than-bushfires-and-theyre-going-to-get-worse-20161212-gt9fyl.html
    Michelle Grattan on Morrisons imploring noises to the ratings agencies.
    https://theconversation.com/morrison-moves-to-reassure-credit-ratings-agencies-70354
    Another win for the religious mafia in the Coalition?
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/turnbull-mp-throws-support-behind-controversial-prolife-narracan-candidate-20161213-gtaayl.html
    What in the hell is going on in Syria?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/syrian-army-iraqi-militia-reportedly-killing-aleppo-civilians–un-20161213-gtaia2.html
    Paul Krugman has come out and said how the US election was tainted. Scary.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/the-tainted-election-20161212-gt9ncs.html
    Not before time it looks like there might be a crackdown on the rampant cash economy. Google.
    /news/policy/tax/crackdown-on-cash-economy-targets-100-bills-and-billions-for-budget-20161213-gta77s
    There seems to be some serious systematic problems in this Sydney hospital.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/staff-shortages-force-surgeons-to-use-sticky-tape-to-fix-surgical-instruments-20161213-gt9wm6.html

  7. Section 2 . . .

    Now more than ever we need a REASONED approach to energy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/report-spells-out-impact-of-coal-closure-on-household-bills-amid-political-brawl-over-energy-20161213-gt9zem.html
    Donald Trump picks Rick Perry to head department he famously couldn’t remember. Yes, it’s that mental giant Rick Perry!
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/donald-trump-picks-rick-perry-to-head-department-he-famously-couldnt-remember-20161213-gtaj49.html
    Could a levy on big business offset the $4b we lose every year in tax avoidance? John Passant is a former Assistant Taxation Commissioner.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/could-a-levy-on-big-business-offset-4-billion-in-tax-avoidance,9833
    In a spoof interview Stephen Colbert grills Donald Trump.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/12/13/stephen-colbert-grills-donald-trump-over-russian-hacking-in-spoof/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Greg Jericho looks at the use of official interest rates as a rather blunt economic tool.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/13/investors-are-back-the-uneven-housing-market-interest-rates-and-what-the-rba-can-do
    How James Packer managed to game planning rules with the Barangaroo casino project. Google.
    /news/politics/national/james-packer-lendlease-used-lure-of-jobs-taxes-to-overrule-planning-laws-20161206-gt4ws6
    Is Putin succeeding in neutering and dividing the West?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/vladimir-putins-game-is-to-neuter-and-divide-the-west–and-he-is-succeeding-20161213-gtaadf.html
    Where’s Marise Payne?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/marise-paynes-absence-triggers-fresh-round-of-reshuffle-talk-20161213-gtaasi.html
    Will Trump’s disdain for the JSF project end up blowing out the already stratospheric cost for our planes?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/13/any-trump-cuts-to-f-35-project-could-blow-out-cost-in-australia-experts-warn
    There will be plenty of jobs axed from NSW State Transit. It never ends these days.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/200-jobs-slashed-as-state-transit-goes-on-costcutting-drive-to-keep-bus-contracts-20161213-gta1mx.html
    There has been a huge IT “meltdown” at the ATO.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/thousands-of-public-servants-sit-idle-as-atos-it-melts-down-20161213-gt9xfd.html

  8. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    This would have been the living end – a moat around Parliament House!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/security-agencies-considered-digging-a-giant-moat-around-parliament-house-20161212-gt9qyt.html
    The most complained against ads for 2016. Some complaints were upheld.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-most-complained-about-ads-of-2016-lamb-ad-starring-lee-lin-chin-accused-of-vilifying-vegans-20161213-gt9xej.html
    It’s been a rough year for staff in the retail business.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/some-masters-staff-join-woolies-as-retail-jobs-disappear-20161208-gt6pqn.html
    This is a landmark legal win on farm labour underpayment. Will this stop the big players from hiding behind shady third party operators?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/landmark-legal-action-over-farm-underpayment-20161212-gt92i7.html
    Asylum seekers will enter the new year still in limbo.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/asylum-seekers-will-welcome-another-new-year-still-in-limbo-20161213-gta7oh.html

    David Pope reckons Pyne is in for a tough time with the Joint Strike Fighter program.

    Ron Tandberg on Trump and Putin having something in common.

    Cathy Wilcox on the checks and balances in US democracy.

    Bill Leak is obsessed!
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e86cf83da1220111be980dcac3579cc0

  10. (From old thread)

    Thanks again for the links BK.

    Assuming no cooling before 9:00, it looks like a few wather stations around Sydney, including the main one at Observatory Hill, have had their warmest December minimum on record. At 27.1, Observatory Hill smashed the old record of 26.3 set on Christmas norning 1868. Meanwhile, Sydney Airport at 27.5 has had its warmest minimum for any month, eclipsing its old December record by over 2 degrees and its all time record by over one degree.

    Most stations around Sydney are now close to or above 30, on their way to 38.

  11. Thanks BK.
    Dr Karl’s article on heat waves is worth reading.
    One of the most annoying things about the pink batts beatup was that there was no mention of lives saved through better insulation, from heat or cold waves.
    One season after the batts were installed saved many lives, particularly those mentioned in the article as vulnerable.
    One positive thing about the current ALP leadership is that they are better at arguing their case. Perhaps before they assumed facts would be enough.

  12. We are sliding back to feudalism, with corporate execs as the new robber barons.

    True. The battles of the 19th and early to mid 20th centuries regarding fair work and fair pay will have to be re-fought.

  15. Steve
    Yes. For workers to win, unions will need to be effective. So the SDA will need to be replaced with something better. Same with the HSU.

  18. Socrates,
    The law takes a while to catch up with some people. It does eventually. Especially if their crimes are as egregious as the RSL ones.

    What worries me is that so much harm is done on the way through to that end point. I’m thinking of Donald Trump here especially. Though he has some good coaching staff in the Russian kleptocracy.

  20. Boy, I heard Gittins give a talk last year and he was saying how bwwwwwilliant Malcolm was. I just wanted to scream: “But he’s just a sleazy merchant banker”. At least he’s woken up.
    I would have thought the large number of don’t knows on the PPM is bad news for Malcolm. Many people would reflexively pick the sitting PM as their preferred PM. They’re not doing that.

  21. IN WA the private contractor Serco has lost the government contract providing court security and transport services to Corrective Services.
    The new Contractor, Broadspectrum formerly Transfield has had a win the FWA wirh an EBA that the union and workers did not vote on. It cuts the pay for workers in regional areas by between $40-50,000 a year through a 30% cut in the hourly rate, no regional allowances or other allowances. All the Serco staff will lose their long service leave and sick leave accrual. For many this is the 3rd or 4th time this loss has happened, and the Liberal Govt is well aware of the problem but has done nothing to protect the workers who are doing work for the community of behalf of government.
    The Contract is claimed to be saving $35 million over 5 years. But what the government is not telling the people is that the new Contractor will not be providing services to the Perth Childrens Court or transporting juvenile offenders. That cost will be met by Corrective Services.
    Another day under a Liberal Govt. Another day of workers conditions being trashed

  23. “But he’s just a sleazy merchant banker”.

    If that was what he was it wouldn’t be so bad.
    A more gutless flog with no compunction to destroy all through his failure to defend anything of value in the vain hope of satisfying his oversized ego is hard to imagine. Mystifyingly conceited for someone who is so utterly useless in his chosen field, and like most cowards happiest when punching down at anyone not afforded the power of his position, but completely craven to anyone who might challenge him. A toady and a creep. So god awful it makes you pine for the return of Abbott who was at least good for a laugh.

  25. Classic ABC.

    “Across the national electricity market the generation mix is changing — with the large-scale renewable energy target leading to substantial investment in wind generation,” he said in a statement.

    “This is contributing to the closure of coal-fired plants and increasing wholesale and retail prices.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-14/electricity-bills-to-rise-by-78-dollars-from-mid-next-year/8118012

    So what they actually forgot to say is

    “Renewable energy, bidding in generally at $0.01 is sending the price of wholesale electricity significantly down. This is sending coal out of the market, which is driving prices back up slightly.”

  26. A toady and a creep. So god awful it makes you pine for the return of Abbott who was at least good for a laugh.
    I am an admirer of the gentleman, respected by many and loved by some, who, when Mr. Abbott was doing an on camera walk through, responded to Mr. Abbott’s cheery “good morning” with a “dickhead” response.
    Where is this hero now. Could he be persuaded to make a comeback to urge Mr. Turnbull on his way? 🙂
    Is the current governments clever plan with electricity, having managed to grasp enough information from Dr. Karl (lazy bastard only written 40 books) is planning to allow heat waves to kill off those who cannot manage their own power supplies. Clever manipulation of public sentiment through the use of those Manchurian Candidate clones may convince enough voters to manage to shut down all renewable energy sources. Sytematic strategic rolling blackouts in appropriate areas where hospital services are complete f***ed should sort out the riff raff. This will then enable the closing of most public schools. Police, ambulance services will need only minimal resources.
    100% tax cut to those who don’t need tax cuts should then entrench the elite forever. We will then, of course, revert to “God Save The Queen” as our national anthem.
    This clever plan may need a little tweaking. However our new Prime Minister Malcolm Roberts will through his judicious scientific approach be able to convince the simple minded public (us) that all is well.
    On another matter entirely.
    When one is using a line trimmer and the line should strike a small stone which then hits the operator on his slipper (do not enquire about the slipper); why is it that should another similar event happen the strike will be to the exact same place on the slipper.
    Is this an instance of quantum entanglement? 😯

  28. Thanks for the round-up BK, though the first few cartoon links appear dodgy (might be my end).

    That Leak quote for attributed to Triggs, is actually what Brandis would say.

  29. StrongUnionsStrongCountry

    Good to hear from you again!

    Yes, WorkChoices by Stealth is apace in the States with Coalition governments and their Capitalist Crony Mates doing unbreakable contract deals to stiff the workers. All in the name of ‘Savings to the Budget’ mind.

    You know, I don’t think we have a problem with thew Nanny State, I think we have a BIG problem with the Motherhood Statement State!

  30. The NYT is continuing to delve into the issue of Russia interfering in the US election:

    How Moscow Aimed a Perfect Weapon at the U.S. Election
    By ERIC LIPTON, DAVID E. SANGER and SCOTT SHANE 2:43 PM ET
    A Times investigation reveals missed signals, slow responses and a continuing underestimation of the seriousness of a campaign of cyberespionage to disrupt the presidential race.
    A low-cost, high-impact weapon that Russia had test-fired in elections elsewhere was trained on the U.S., with devastating effectiveness.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/us/politics/russia-hack-election-dnc.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

  31. C@tmomma
    “Yes it’s well past time for the Unions to get back to their knitting.”

    I strongly agree. Ironically, if unions like the HSU spent more time fighting for workers rights and less time trying to get their office bearers pre-selected into safe seats, they would find their political influence was greater, not less. I think the SDA is unreformable, so it ideally should be replaced by somethign that actually repreents retail workers better, or sidelined by the ACTU and ALP, before it does any more damage to the labour movement.

  32. Ratsak – Great rant. But sums him up. Kisses the arse of anyone he needs and kicks the shit out of anyone below him who stands up to him.

  33. C@tmomma
    “The law takes a while to catch up with some people. It does eventually. Especially if their crimes are as egregious as the RSL ones.”

    I hope you are right, but sadly that is not my experience. Corporate regulators are so weak (underfunded and sometimes led by poachers turned gamekeepers) and court processes so slow (too few judges) that it can take years to get these people into court, and even then the chances of a conviction are low, and the penalties a wrist-slap.

    From Chris Skase and the destroyers of our SA State bank, through James Hardie execs and the asbestos compo scandal, to recent examples like the convicted but not jailed former head of Gunns timber mills, corporate crime is the crime that is not treated like a crime.

  35. Had to take family member to the Austin Hospital yesterday. Ended up being there for most of the day. The staff were absolutly brilliant. I would be very happy to pay a higher medicare levy to ensure that these services are available to us in future.

  37. The Turnbull government is to consider a ban on the $100 note and a crackdown on all but small cash payments as part of an assault on the cash economy to be unveiled in Monday’s mid-year budget update.

    “There’s nothing wrong with cash, the issue is when people don’t declare it,” said Financial Services Minister Kelly O’Dwyer ahead of the announcement.

    …In a submission to the financial system inquiry former Reserve Bank official Peter Mair suggested doing away with $100 and $50 notes altogether. They would be given a use-by date. Anyone who didn’t hand them in within, say, five years would get nothing in return.

    He said the bulk of $100 notes appeared to be used to for illegal activities and to avoid tax and the pension assets test.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/future-of-the-100-note-up-for-grabs-as-government-targets-undeclared-cash-payments-20161213-gtakk5.html

  38. socrates @ #31 Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 9:38 am

    C@tmomma
    “Yes it’s well past time for the Unions to get back to their knitting.”
    I strongly agree. Ironically, if unions like the HSU spent more time fighting for workers rights and less time trying to get their office bearers pre-selected into safe seats, they would find their political influence was greater, not less. I think the SDA is unreformable, so it ideally should be replaced by somethign that actually repreents retail workers better, or sidelined by the ACTU and ALP, before it does any more damage to the labour movement.

    They seem to be particularly bad in SA but I get the impression they are not so bad in Victoria. I don’t know about other states.
    Even at their best, they are a weak union.

  39. TPOF

    I save money by withdrawing cash for weekly expenses at the supermarket (at no charge) and then paying cash all the week (including casual gardener). I don’t mind the withdrawal of $100 notes, but $50 as well???

  40. lizzie @ #39 Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 10:05 am

    TPOF
    I save money by withdrawing cash for weekly expenses at the supermarket (at no charge) and then paying cash all the week (including casual gardener). I don’t mind the withdrawal of $100 notes, but $50 as well???

    Yep. That’s how I see it. I use credit cards all the time for the points (I pay it off when due so never pay interest) and could cope better without a wallet full of cash. But there are times when I do need cash. For example, when eating out with friends (with a single bill for the table) or where a shopkeeper wants to put a surcharge on for use of a credit card.

  41. lizzie @ #39 Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 10:05 am

    TPOF
    I save money by withdrawing cash for weekly expenses at the supermarket (at no charge) and then paying cash all the week (including casual gardener). I don’t mind the withdrawal of $100 notes, but $50 as well???

    I do a variation of that by only paying cash where I must and otherwise using a debit card or credit card. So I never have much cash in my wallet and don’t need it.

  42. lizzie
    #37 Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 10:00 am
    TPOF
    #36 Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 9:58 am
    They’ll have to prise the $100 notes from my cold, dead hands.
    I think a better idea would be a National cashless welfare card plan by Turnbull government but to be applied to MP’s. Trips to Paris, helicopter rides for fun lovers and holidays to cousins getting married would be out.
    Expensive wines will be a no goer. Visits to brothels only with a doctors certificate.
    No gambling for these at risk threatened minority members.
    Card holders will have an implant to track their movements. The idea that these implants could contain cyanide is a filthy rumour spread by not nice people.
    Bloody warm in Newcastle. 😀

  44. A couple of articles from the USA that I found interesting:
    One on James Comey:
    http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a51446/what-was-comey-thinking/

    And one on the ideological underpinning of the right wing – which goes to explain a lot about their lack of respect for civics and civility and reinforces the need to fight back hard:

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/12/how-ayn-rands-theories-destroyed-never-trump-conservatism.html

    If you see the whole world divided into makers and takers and where nothing matters but finishing on top of the pile, then the destruction of community and society by the right wing makes sense.

  45. With the WA elections just around the corner, the current LNP government is up to it old tricks with, essentially, Liberal Party advertising under the guise of a “Government Announcement” popping up on TV. In previous days, we had the “Big Picture” ads which showed a prosperous city with its happy inhabitants going about their daily business all due to the government taking care of Big Picture items such as new stadiums, water front developments and the like.
    Now, we have a similar suite of ads telling us that the that naughty Labor Party (not actually named but we know who you are) has got it all wrong and items such as the sale of Western Power will not lead to higher electricity prices, fewer employed and will have the benefit of paying off debt. I had to look twice as to who was authenticating such stuff – as it looked like, sounded like and was and ad for the Liberal Party and its National mate. I call it a complete misuse of government funds to support the government in office – in this case the LNP. That nobody seems to have noticed or cares says it all I guess.

  46. For goodness sake why does the govt continue to focus its energy on the general public. Big business is where they should be enforcing tax, but no they want to cut their taxes by another 50 billion dollars. Yeah lets concentrate on taking 100 notes out, that will fix the revenue problem. @facepalm@

  48. How far back has the BOM got in its task of adjusting the temperature records to pretend it was much cooler in the past, have they got to 1828 yet when both people and birds were dying of heat exhaustion.

Comments Page 1 of 33
1 2 … 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *