BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Little change this week to a poll aggregate that now comes with the added bonus of One Nation. Also featured: South Australian and Northern Territory redistribution news.

Results from Newspoll and Essential Research have elicited next to no change on BludgerTrack, at least so far as the results are concerned – negligible movement all round on voting intention, although what’s there is enough for the Coalition to claw back a seat in Queensland on the projection. Newspoll provides a set of leadership numbers as always, and here too their effect is negligible.


What is new on BludgerTrack is that it’s now tracking One Nation, although the only hard data here is that Essential Research has been providing since the start of September. Polls that don’t report One Nation still have some influence on them through their “others” results, and the estimated results for them show up as data points on the chart. I’ve implemented a bit of a cheat to get the One Nation trendline started from the beginning by using their national Senate vote of 4.3% as a post-election starting point. However, the “since election” reading on the tables goes off the national House of Representatives result of 1.3%, which is unflattering to them as they only fielded 15 candidates.

Two bits of electoral boundaries news to relate:

• The redistribution of the two federal seats in the Northern Territory has been finalised, with no changes made to September’s draft proposal. Three thousand voters have been transferred from growing Solomon (covering Darwin and Palmerston) to stagnant Lingiari (covering the remainder of the territory), in an area encompassing Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli at the eastern edge of Palmerston, together with the Litchfield Shire areas around Knuckey Lagoon east of Darwin. To the very limited extent that this will have an electoral effect, it will be to strengthen Labor in Solomon and weaken them in Lingiari, the area transferred being conservative-leaning.

• The South Australian state redistribution has been finalised, with a large number of changes made to the draft published in August. These are largely to the benefit of the Liberals, who stand aggrieved by their failure to win government in 2014 despite winning the two-party vote by 53-47. The draft redrew the Labor marginals of Elder and Mawson to make them notionally Liberal. However, they did the opposite in Fisher, a normally conservative-leaning seat that Labor managed to win at a by-election in December 2014 after the death of independent member Bob Such. This seat has been renamed Hurtle Vale, and pushed southwards into the Labor-voting Morphett Vale area.

The new set of changes adds a further two seats to the Liberal column, most notably Colton, where Labor cops a transfer of 8000 voters from Glenelg North and West Beach (currently in Morphett), turning the Labor margin of 2% into a Liberal margin of 3.7%. The other seat is Newland, where there was so little in it that a further 200 voters in Humbug Scrub have been enough to nudge it to the Liberal side of the pendulum. There has also been a further boost to the Liberal margin in Elder, where gains around Lower Mitcham in the east (currently in Waite) push the margin out from 1.1% to 4.3%.

The Liberals has also benefited in Adelaide, where the reversal of a proposal to move Walkerville out of the electorate leaves the margin at 2.0%, compared with 2.5% at the election and 0.6% in the draft; and in the Labor-held seat of Lee, where an extra 4000 voters from Colton reduce the Labor margin from 4.6% to 2.6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

567 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Everyone will interpret the disappointing Naplan results according to their ideological position and say we need more of whatever they are trying to push.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Ross Gittins says what so many are thinking – If ever there was proof that modern-day politicians are more followers than leaders, Malcolm Turnbull must be it.
    NSW Education Minister Adrian Piccoli expresses his frustrations in this op-ed.
    Norm Abjorensen writes that Trump is doing to politics what punk did to music. A very interesting comparison.
    David Wroe reports on the savage audit of the NSW RSL. By no means is this story over.
    Dr Karl tells us that heatwaves are more dangerous than bushfires and they are going to get worse.
    Michelle Grattan on Morrisons imploring noises to the ratings agencies.
    Another win for the religious mafia in the Coalition?
    What in the hell is going on in Syria?–un-20161213-gtaia2.html
    Paul Krugman has come out and said how the US election was tainted. Scary.
    Not before time it looks like there might be a crackdown on the rampant cash economy. Google.
    There seems to be some serious systematic problems in this Sydney hospital.

  3. Hello Bludgers.
    It is less than ten degrees here in London. The Grand Dragonette is as beautiful as ever, and smart, When she says ‘Grandma’ I melt into a gooey pile of awwness.

    The flight from Adelaide via Dubai to London with a 2 hour stopover at Dubai airport went well.
    Emirites is a good airline and the food was delish.
    I went with my daughter to Oxford Street where she kitted my out in London a weather coat and pair of shoes.

    I love London, it is so exciting and I am escaping the Adelaide heat. I walked down the London streets full of rugged up people, with my coat off, in a light shirt and jeans just enjoying the air-conditioning outside, Feel the wonderful cool.

    Is Turnbull still PM and if so why?

    catch ya later

  4. Section 2 . . .

    Now more than ever we need a REASONED approach to energy.
    Donald Trump picks Rick Perry to head department he famously couldn’t remember. Yes, it’s that mental giant Rick Perry!
    Could a levy on big business offset the $4b we lose every year in tax avoidance? John Passant is a former Assistant Taxation Commissioner.,9833
    In a spoof interview Stephen Colbert grills Donald Trump.
    Greg Jericho looks at the use of official interest rates as a rather blunt economic tool.
    How James Packer managed to game planning rules with the Barangaroo casino project. Google.
    Is Putin succeeding in neutering and dividing the West?–and-he-is-succeeding-20161213-gtaadf.html
    Where’s Marise Payne?
    Will Trump’s disdain for the JSF project end up blowing out the already stratospheric cost for our planes?
    There will be plenty of jobs axed from NSW State Transit. It never ends these days.
    There has been a huge IT “meltdown” at the ATO.

  5. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    This would have been the living end – a moat around Parliament House!
    The most complained against ads for 2016. Some complaints were upheld.
    It’s been a rough year for staff in the retail business.
    This is a landmark legal win on farm labour underpayment. Will this stop the big players from hiding behind shady third party operators?
    Asylum seekers will enter the new year still in limbo.

    David Pope reckons Pyne is in for a tough time with the Joint Strike Fighter program.

    Ron Tandberg on Trump and Putin having something in common.

    Cathy Wilcox on the checks and balances in US democracy.

    Bill Leak is obsessed!

  6. Thanks again for the links BK.

    Assuming no cooling before 9:00, it looks like a few waeather stations around Sydney, including the main one at Observatory Hill, have had their warmest December minimum on record. At 27.1, Observatory Hill smashed the oldrecord of 26.3 set on Christmas norning 1868. Meanwhile, Sydney Airport at 27.5 has had its warmest minimum for any month, eclipsing its old December record by over 2 degrees and its all time ever record by over one degree.

    Most stations around Sydney are now close to or above 30, on their way to 38.

  7. Thanks BK.
    Dr Karl’s article on heat waves is worth reading.
    One of the most annoying things about the pink batts beatup was that there was no mention of lives saved through better insulation, from heat or cold waves.
    One season after the batts were installed saved many lives, particularly those mentioned in the article as vulnerable.
    One positive thing about the current ALP leadership is that they are better at arguing their case. Perhaps before they assumed facts would be enough.

  8. kev Johnno

    You are not comparing like with like. There is bone in a lamb leg, so I chose the rib roast comparison.

    Any way what a bloody STUPID argument. If any one of you seriously doubt that the price of lamb has gone through the roof in recent years, I can confidently say you never now and never have done any shopping.

    Trust me dearies on this at least. Legs of lamb are still tolerably affordable but the other cuts – what were once low prices meats eg lamb chops are now MORE expensive than beef, and as for lamb cutlets- you know the ones your mum wrapped in egg and breadcrumbs – you need to rob a bank to afford them these days.

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