BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Little change this week to a poll aggregate that now comes with the added bonus of One Nation. Also featured: South Australian and Northern Territory redistribution news.

Results from Newspoll and Essential Research have elicited next to no change on BludgerTrack, at least so far as the results are concerned – negligible movement all round on voting intention, although what’s there is enough for the Coalition to claw back a seat in Queensland on the projection. Newspoll provides a set of leadership numbers as always, and here too their effect is negligible.

bt2019-2016-12-07

What is new on BludgerTrack is that it’s now tracking One Nation, although the only hard data here is that Essential Research has been providing since the start of September. Polls that don’t report One Nation still have some influence on them through their “others” results, and the estimated results for them show up as data points on the chart. I’ve implemented a bit of a cheat to get the One Nation trendline started from the beginning by using their national Senate vote of 4.3% as a post-election starting point. However, the “since election” reading on the tables goes off the national House of Representatives result of 1.3%, which is unflattering to them as they only fielded 15 candidates.

Two bits of electoral boundaries news to relate:

• The redistribution of the two federal seats in the Northern Territory has been finalised, with no changes made to September’s draft proposal. Three thousand voters have been transferred from growing Solomon (covering Darwin and Palmerston) to stagnant Lingiari (covering the remainder of the territory), in an area encompassing Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli at the eastern edge of Palmerston, together with the Litchfield Shire areas around Knuckey Lagoon east of Darwin. To the very limited extent that this will have an electoral effect, it will be to strengthen Labor in Solomon and weaken them in Lingiari, the area transferred being conservative-leaning.

• The South Australian state redistribution has been finalised, with a large number of changes made to the draft published in August. These are largely to the benefit of the Liberals, who stand aggrieved by their failure to win government in 2014 despite winning the two-party vote by 53-47. The draft redrew the Labor marginals of Elder and Mawson to make them notionally Liberal. However, they did the opposite in Fisher, a normally conservative-leaning seat that Labor managed to win at a by-election in December 2014 after the death of independent member Bob Such. This seat has been renamed Hurtle Vale, and pushed southwards into the Labor-voting Morphett Vale area.

The new set of changes adds a further two seats to the Liberal column, most notably Colton, where Labor cops a transfer of 8000 voters from Glenelg North and West Beach (currently in Morphett), turning the Labor margin of 2% into a Liberal margin of 3.7%. The other seat is Newland, where there was so little in it that a further 200 voters in Humbug Scrub have been enough to nudge it to the Liberal side of the pendulum. There has also been a further boost to the Liberal margin in Elder, where gains around Lower Mitcham in the east (currently in Waite) push the margin out from 1.1% to 4.3%.

The Liberals has also benefited in Adelaide, where the reversal of a proposal to move Walkerville out of the electorate leaves the margin at 2.0%, compared with 2.5% at the election and 0.6% in the draft; and in the Labor-held seat of Lee, where an extra 4000 voters from Colton reduce the Labor margin from 4.6% to 2.6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

567 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 11 of 12
1 … 10 11 12

  2. Maybe the Greens and POH can form a coalition. Seems a reasonable position given they both share an extreme ideology.

    There is nothing extreme about Greens policies. There is a lot of unimaginative, timid, and corrupt behaviour from the Labor party, on the other hand.

  4. Made the mistake of turning on 7.30’s doleful report on Naplan results.

    Any questioning on the accuracy of the test? You’ve got to be kidding?
    Any teacher union or Labor reps? Surely you jest.

    Instead we had a parade of ‘experts’ (including someone for that well known independent organisation, the Centre for Independent Studies), who all strangely enough confirmed the line that money wasn’t ‘the solution’. Inferred problem was actually the teachers of course.

    Maybe the problem, if indeed there is one, is that we’re rapidly developing a dumber and dumber culture by the day, aided and abetted the MSM like the ABC!

  5. “There is nothing extreme about Greens policies.”

    In the past the Greens party has been vilified for any number of policy positions, some of which are now mainstream.

    Take dying with dignity, for example.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/victoria/assisted-dying-reforms-how-death-changed-daniel-andrews-and-jaala-pulford-20161210-gt8cma.html

    But Thursday’s announcement was also significant for the cabinet as a whole – the culmination of lengthy conversations between ministers, subtle lobbying on all sides of the debate, and the private contemplation of a vexed question: should people in irreversible decline have the right to choose the timing and manner of their death?

    It was a question posed at Spring Street eight years ago, when Greens MP Colleen Hartland introduced a private member’s bill for physician-assisted dying that was ultimately defeated in the upper house 25 votes to 13.

    But back then, only one Labor MP voted in favour of the bill: Andrews’ right-hand man Gavin Jennings. This time more than half the cabinet have already declared support, along with a several Labor backbenchers, a growing number of Liberal MPs, the Greens and the Sex Party.</blockquote)

  7. Adrian,
    The only ABC station that I bother with, Newsradio, had an interview the other day with the head of the organisation who is in charge of Naplan and he said that extra money IS actually the solution and the results bore this out because if you look at who is doing really well in literacy especially, you’ll find it is the migrant children and those whose parents were given intensive English language classes when they came here, who are doing the best in their Naplan tests and going ahead compared to the general student population’s results which are ‘flatlining’, to use the negative pejorative term du jour. Thus proving that extra money for those who are behind in their literacy and numeracy in general would benefit them. As there was nothing in particular different with the migrant kids to the general student population, except they couldn’t speak English as their first language.

    I bet that didn’t get a run on 7.30’s ‘analysis’!

  9. I notice Rex’s single ‘drive-by’ comment was the PPM …

    No mention of the fact that ALP rose a point of that Shortens netsats are better than Turnbull’s … nah, thought not 🙂

  11. I heard a very good interview this morning on ABC radio with former Australian astronaut Andy Thomas. He’s lived the last 30 years in the US but has retained a very refined Australian accent. He’s an impressive guy.

  12. Sir Pajama:

    I’ve known Dave for years and agree, he’s too purist to make an effective politician. Diane Evers was the same as a Greens candidate. But these are the kinds of people the Greens attract to stand for them, so I guess that’s what the party has to work with.

    The Greens don’t have a chance in hell of winning Albany anyway, so Dave Rastrick MLA is a moot point.

  14. Adrian

    Maybe the problem, if indeed there is one, is that we’re rapidly developing a dumber and dumber culture by the day, aided and abetted the MSM like the ABC!

    See the movie Idiocracy. They were out by a couple of hundred years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy
    Donald Trump for president: Idiocracy is coming true
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/0/donald-trump-for-president-idiocracy-is-coming-true/
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGUNPMPrxvA

  15. The Kennedys had ‘Camelot’. The Trumps have Disneyland(Pay at the gate).

    Ivanka Trump Auctioning $50,000 Private Coffee Chat:
    Chatwww.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/12/13/ivanka-trump-auctioning-50-000-private-coffee-chat/?ncid=edlinkauhpmg00000003

  19. Also recommended on SBS is Full Frontal With Samantha Bee.

    Like Stephen Colbert and John Oliver, Bee made her name as a “reporter” on The Daily Show.

    Like Colbert and Oliver she is well worth a watch to have a good laugh at news and current affairs.

  20. ‘Did 1930 Report have that idiot Kevin Donnelly on to slap down the teaching profession?’

    No but they had proxies who were a touch more subtle, but the message was the same.

  21. Why all the fuss about NAPLAN results.

    Under the current de facto RWNJ government, there is no need for children to be educated. Instead, all they need are the following *facts*:

    – Climate change is a left wing conspiracy (science)

    – according to the eleventy calculator, budget deficits are only bad when they occur under Labor (maths)

    – all brown skinned people and muslims are evil terrorists (population studies)

    – black is white, bad is good and down is up (English)

    – give more money to the rich and take money from the poor (economics)

    and so on…

  22. [In the past the Greens party has been vilified for any number of policy positions, some of which are now mainstream.]

    Yeah how are they with a cap and trade system that had massive 90%+ mainstream support which working with Abbott they have managed to destroy and to make a minority extreme position in Australia even when in the rest of the world (bar the moronic USA) it is mainstream?

  23. Geelong Flyer,
    I did notice that Kevin Donnelly’s latest book (these ideologues honestly think what they write is the latest Ayn Rand) was on Tony Abbott’s holiday reading list.
    *groan*

    I often wonder why politicians think that, when they have hung up the tools for the year, they have to read at least 3 books of dense non-fiction, which is what I usually see on their reading lists. Do they even really read them? Or are they just used, in the media articles they are touted in, as signifiers to their camp followers and signposts to where the casually idle and retired who form most of the Cons’ base, should go with THEIR reading?

  24. WWP,
    Yeah how are they with a cap and trade system that had massive 90%+ mainstream support which working with Abbott they have managed to destroy and to make a minority extreme position in Australia even when in the rest of the world (bar the moronic USA) it is mainstream?

    Probably pretty happy because they can continue their Virtue Signalling and trawling for votes. 🙂

  25. In the past the Greens party has been vilified for any number of policy positions

    Their recently announced policy of decriminalising illicit drugs sunk without trace the day after its announcement by Di Natale and has shown no signs since of wanting to be revived by the Greens.

  26. Confessions

    In the past the Greens party has been vilified for any number of policy positions

    Their recently announced policy of decriminalising illicit drugs sunk without trace the day after its announcement by Di Natale and has shown no signs since of wanting to be revived by the Greens.

    The problem is/was the EFFING MSM reported it as if it meant legalising drugs with all the ooga booga scare headlines associated with that. Di Natale went to Portugal to see first hand the effects of “decriminalisation” there. Not a Di Natale fan but hat tip to him actually paying for the trip with his own money.

    Portugal decriminalised drugs 14 years ago – and now hardly anyone dies from overdosing

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/portugal-decriminalised-drugs-14-years-ago-and-now-hardly-anyone-dies-from-overdosing-10301780.html

  27. The media generally is in full on hysteria at present. Recession, loss of AAA , education failure, politics failure and so on. We are all doomed.
    Soon they will report the death of Santa in a sleigh disaster.

  29. Davidwh

    With the current hysteria it is odds on it will be reported that Putin takes out Santa and installs Ded Moroz (Father Frost) as this years gift giver.

  31. Poroti:

    And the Greens let their heart-felt policy position go at the first reaction of media numptyville?

    The Greens and their fans are always the first to chide the major parties for not sticking to their guns and pushing back against media hysteria when it comes to their signature issues of SSM and boats. So they should be prepared to put their chips where their mouths are and push back on this if they feel strongly enough about the issue to make it a policy of the party’s.

  32. Recession, loss of AAA

    If the loss of Australia’s AAA rating eventuates under a Liberal govt I will laugh long and loud. This is a second term Liberal govt, so no chance of blaming Labor for that one, this is all Turnbull, JBishop, Abbott, Morrison, Hockey and co who own this one.

  34. Davidwh

    I had a Russkiy boss a while back and one thing I learnt was that December 25th was WTF? for them. Father Frost and New Year was the main event. Boss suggested that the best time for Australia to invade Russia was in the two weeks after New Years day as all military are drunk for that period.

  37. No carbon pricing was a way of pricing GHGEs which in turn delivered revenue benefits to the community. Your lot decided to let the polluters off the hook while simultaneously keeping the revenue benefits to the community. It’s this kind of economic mismanagement that has placed our AAA credit rating in jeopardy.

  38. the problem with naplan results – if there is one with such a dodgy test anyway – can be attributed to structural issue that no-one will raise – at heart of public private divide has been drift of higher achieving students to selective state or to private esp the religious parish de facto private system that RC and anglicans proudly run. well done for some student sectors – however the ability average in a whole sway of public schools has dropped over last 2 decades, and the stimulus that higher achieving students provide in comprehensive schools lessened. naplan tests all students – if the above analysis os mainly or partly correct there will be little change in its results until govts have courage to face up to issues of equity and access (not just choice) in education

  39. anyone wanting to meet ivanka trump at $75000 per 45m (that’s $1,500 A a minute) needs to well behaved. you have to laugh at this family

  45. The Coalition’s problem with the deficit is not much what they inherited, but similar to Swan they thought growth would increase the income tax take and GST.
    So they could cut the carbon tax give money to the reserve bank and even give tax cuts and growth would fix the problem.
    They probably believed growth would always be higher under a coalition government making their job easier.
    Now GDP and wage growth is minimal they have absolutely no idea what to do.

  47. Now GDP and wage growth is minimal they have absolutely no idea what to do.

    Deliberately setting out to contract an economy so that the government can brag about a reduced deficit or surplus is crazy stuff. What’s the point of having a Scrooge McDuck-style swimming pool full of money when the citizens are poverty stricken? Can they eat this money? Can they spend it?

    If a government has a surplus it’s collected too much tax,or not paid out enough to its citizens, or a bit of both. If a government tries to depress wages then its income tax receipts will dwindle. If a government tries to dud its social security recipients that will only promote crime and poverty.No-one will buy the good or services that successful companies are offering.

    Government is not a business. It’s not there to make a profit (i.e. “surplus”). It’s there to break even (i.e.”balanced budget”).

Comments Page 11 of 12
1 … 10 11 12

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *