BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Little change this week to a poll aggregate that now comes with the added bonus of One Nation. Also featured: South Australian and Northern Territory redistribution news.

Results from Newspoll and Essential Research have elicited next to no change on BludgerTrack, at least so far as the results are concerned – negligible movement all round on voting intention, although what’s there is enough for the Coalition to claw back a seat in Queensland on the projection. Newspoll provides a set of leadership numbers as always, and here too their effect is negligible.

bt2019-2016-12-07

What is new on BludgerTrack is that it’s now tracking One Nation, although the only hard data here is that Essential Research has been providing since the start of September. Polls that don’t report One Nation still have some influence on them through their “others” results, and the estimated results for them show up as data points on the chart. I’ve implemented a bit of a cheat to get the One Nation trendline started from the beginning by using their national Senate vote of 4.3% as a post-election starting point. However, the “since election” reading on the tables goes off the national House of Representatives result of 1.3%, which is unflattering to them as they only fielded 15 candidates.

Two bits of electoral boundaries news to relate:

• The redistribution of the two federal seats in the Northern Territory has been finalised, with no changes made to September’s draft proposal. Three thousand voters have been transferred from growing Solomon (covering Darwin and Palmerston) to stagnant Lingiari (covering the remainder of the territory), in an area encompassing Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli at the eastern edge of Palmerston, together with the Litchfield Shire areas around Knuckey Lagoon east of Darwin. To the very limited extent that this will have an electoral effect, it will be to strengthen Labor in Solomon and weaken them in Lingiari, the area transferred being conservative-leaning.

• The South Australian state redistribution has been finalised, with a large number of changes made to the draft published in August. These are largely to the benefit of the Liberals, who stand aggrieved by their failure to win government in 2014 despite winning the two-party vote by 53-47. The draft redrew the Labor marginals of Elder and Mawson to make them notionally Liberal. However, they did the opposite in Fisher, a normally conservative-leaning seat that Labor managed to win at a by-election in December 2014 after the death of independent member Bob Such. This seat has been renamed Hurtle Vale, and pushed southwards into the Labor-voting Morphett Vale area.

The new set of changes adds a further two seats to the Liberal column, most notably Colton, where Labor cops a transfer of 8000 voters from Glenelg North and West Beach (currently in Morphett), turning the Labor margin of 2% into a Liberal margin of 3.7%. The other seat is Newland, where there was so little in it that a further 200 voters in Humbug Scrub have been enough to nudge it to the Liberal side of the pendulum. There has also been a further boost to the Liberal margin in Elder, where gains around Lower Mitcham in the east (currently in Waite) push the margin out from 1.1% to 4.3%.

The Liberals has also benefited in Adelaide, where the reversal of a proposal to move Walkerville out of the electorate leaves the margin at 2.0%, compared with 2.5% at the election and 0.6% in the draft; and in the Labor-held seat of Lee, where an extra 4000 voters from Colton reduce the Labor margin from 4.6% to 2.6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

567 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 10 of 12
1 … 9 10 11 12

  1. phoenixred @ #444 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 3:09 pm

    C@tmomma Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 2:56 pm
    Yup, if Cory didn’t have the liberal party, he’d be a nobody walking around yelling at clouds.
    **********************************************
    With apologies to William Wordsworth :
    I wandered lonely as a cloud
    That floats on high o’er vales and hills,
    When all at once I saw a crowd,
    A host, of golden LNPdills ;
    Beside the lake, beneath the trees,
    Fluttering and dancing in the breeze.

    I like it. A lot! 😎

  2. Trog Sorrenson Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 3:30 pm

    Here we go. Right on cue. First act of the kleptocracy, drill the Arctic. money for Exxon, money for Putin. everyone is happy.

    *****************************************

    NEW YORK — President-elect Donald Trump is facing an early test with fellow Republicans over U.S. relations with Russia, as lawmakers seek to investigate a CIA assessment that Russia interfered in the November election and issue warnings over the incoming president’s potential pick for secretary of state.

    In the TV interview, Trump pointed to Tillerson’s deep relations with Moscow as a selling point. As ExxonMobil’s head, he maintained close ties with Russia and was awarded by Putin with the Order of Friendship in 2013, an honor for a foreign citizen.

    Democrats have warned that plucking Tillerson for State would put the leader of the world’s largest oil company in a pivotal role on issues like climate change and the future of the Keystone XL pipeline. They also question whether he would apply diplomatic pressure on Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.

    Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who unsuccessfully challenged Trump for the GOP nomination, wrote on Twitter, “Being a ‘friend of Vladimir’ is not an attribute I am hoping for from a #SecretaryOfState.”

    https://www.indianagazette.com/news/reg-national-world/lawmakers-vow-investigation-over-russia,25511190/

  5. Record temperature for this day in downtown Waratah West NSW. 37 degrees.
    The regimental dog is resting comfortably with a cooling air conditioner. 😎
    Cool smiley is very appropriate for “The Dog and I” – should be a song title in there!

  6. I understand there is a new translation of the bible.
    The meek shall inherit the earth now reads:-
    The geeks shall inherit the earth.
    HETL. 🙂

  7. Not a bad idea to try to look at things from the other guys perspective.

    Absolutely right. But what you do next is what matters. The worst mistake that could be made is to correct the previous mistake rather than deal with the world as it is now. It’s how we got World War 2 out of World War 1.

    The fact is that the Baltic states (which have a different deep historical relationship with Russia than Ukraine does) are members of NATO. And anything Putin seeks to do to interfere in them will necessarily have dire consequences – whatever the US response is (including no response) will substantially disrupt the international order as it stands now. The question is whether Putin wants to do that, with the huge risks that entails.

  9. Bemused:

    The unpleasantness in Ukraine is largely because NATO / US reneged on a deal the Russians thought they had for NATO not to expand to its border.

    I should add that though this is the current wisdom, and may well be correct, there is hardly certainty that a resurgent Russia, led by a powerful Tsar like Putin, would not nevertheless have sought to expand hegemony again to at least recover the extent of the old Tsarist borders for the sake of national and nationalist pride.

    There is a lot of post-factual justification going on. A separate argument may be that membership of NATO was and remains all that stands between the former Warsaw Pact nations, as well as the Baltic States, which were forcibly absorbed into the Soviet Union in the second world war, would suffer the same fate as Belarus, Ukraine and other former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact states under the control of Stalinist dictators and kleptocrats.

  11. Could someone put Malcolm Roberts, Tony Abbott, Cory Bernardi and any other ‘Climate Change is crap’ fruit loop in a room and throw away the key!?!

    Anyone who supports the Adani mine should be chucked in there with them.

  12. The insanity going on in the US simply defies comprehension.

    Just like in the election, Trump is thumbing his nose at all conventions (and dare I say it? moral rectitude) and he will likely get away with it.

    The novelty of someone flouting every standard seems to have stunned people into utter silence. And those who do speak up are being ignored.

    It is crazy!

  13. Trump is like that crazy Aunt or Uncle at the BBQ who talks dirty, farts, and drips sauce down the front of his/her pants and everyone just rolls their eyes and pats on the head and say “thats just uncle/aunt Jo”

  14. Jenauthor
    It is still very early days on the whole Russia thing. Tillerson’s nomination is a step too far for Trump and unlikely to get past the Senate. The Republicans will want to put the brakes on before it all blows up in their faces.

  17. @Confessions:

    Dave Rastrick as Greens candidate eh?
    I know Dave well. Lovely guy well steeped in environmental activism over decades.
    But as. politician? Dave’s very shy and manages to overcome that when performing (like me, he has stage, instruments and microphones as a ‘shield’) but politics is a different ‘performance stage’ entirely. It’s also very different to protests and activism. I hope he succeeds because he has infinite integrity and would never allow that to erode. However, politicians necessarily have to be a bit more flexible to get things done. They also need to be impervious to attacks and character smearing, while being very skilled at negotiation with enemies (and friends!). I suspect Dave will be a good rep for the Greens, but I’m not sure how effective he will be as a politician. If he gets the job, let’s hope he survives it!

  18. jenauthor @ #463 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 4:58 pm

    Trump is like that crazy Aunt or Uncle at the BBQ who talks dirty, farts, and drips sauce down the front of his/her pants and everyone just rolls their eyes and pats on the head and say “thats just uncle/aunt Jo”

    I hardly ever go anywhere.
    But would you please advise the location of your next BBQ please? 🙂

  20. ‘Not good Xmas reading for Malcolm and Scottie?’

    Nah, it’s all Labor’s fault. Always has been, always will be.
    Funnily enough Labor rarely carried on like this when they were in power.

  21. It is crazy!

    It’s more than crazy!
    However if Trump doesn’t placate the loonies that voted him in it will all go south rapidly. Only a matter of time before the sounds of pitch forks being sharpened reaches the ears of those in power in Washington.

  24. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia
    #472 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 5:23 pm
    I am a very proud Australian, not so proud of the people that are running the place and make people think we are all tarred with the same brush.

  26. The United States could have been magnanimous and visionary after the demise of the Soviet Union; they could have wound down the Cold War security arrangements and included Russia in a different geopolitical order. Instead the US “spiked the football” by expanding NATO membership needlessly. The Clinton Administration showed a complete lack of geopolitical imagination.

  28. You can’t pick the good and ignore the bad, if your country is a democracy and is torturing and allowing the physical, mental and sexual abuse of refugees, as our country patently is, then every single one of us is tarred thoroughly with that brush.

  29. wewantpaul @ #478 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 6:17 pm

    You can’t pick the good and ignore the bad, if your country is a democracy and is torturing and allowing the physical, mental and sexual abuse of refugees, as our country patently is, then every single one of us is tarred thoroughly with that brush.

    It was only months ago that Turnbull and Shorten both had their colleagues vote against a RC into Manus and Nauru.
    This alone shows both are unworthy of good-hearted Australians votes.

  33. I think Turnbull is finished. He has zero political capital, multiple opponents, his media support has pre much evaporated, sluggish economy, no legislative agenda that is popular with people and no obvious way he can turn this around. Whoever removes him won’t be popular. I can’t see Scott Morrison or Dutton becoming leaders while Bishop won’t be accepted with many inside the party room.

    Now Labor’s focus should be to keep political conversation on issues favorable to ALP and I think last election policy platform is a good base for that.

  34. Evening all. Sad to see Tillerson made Secretary of State but not surprised. That swamp is not so much drained as forming a moat around the White House.

    On the plus side, I was at the Roads Australia christmas lunch in Adelaide today whereas SA State Transport minister Mulligan spoke. Good job! His speech was
    Good, and well delivered. He is an excellent speaker, not wooden at all, nor prevaricating either. He also spoke well off the cuff in answering questions.

    The honest truth was the Feds have said nothing about what might be funded in Adelaide or SA infrastructure after the current projects are finished. State funds are already allocated. It wasn’t a good news speech, but honest and well delivered and fairly well received in what can be a rather conservative audience.

  35. This last two weeks I have been bingeing on Scandinavian and French drama series on SBS On Demand. There is some really good stuff available there.

  38. http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorians-warm-to-pauline-hansons-one-nation-party-20161213-gta0hc.html

    Victorian voters are warming to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation after shunning her party at the federal election, with nearly one in ten people indicating support in a new poll.

    Ms Hanson’s return to the Senate has seen a bounce in her popularity in the traditionally progressive state, with One Nation capturing 9.4 per cent of the state primary in a new ReachTEL poll of 1649 Victorians.
    ::::::

    Three inner city polls also show Labor also faces a major battle, with the Greens now leading Labor in the primary vote in Northcote, with 40.5 per cent of the primary vote.

  39. BK
    Scandinavian drama on SBS. The good stuff I am sure.

    I have been watching OJ Made in America on SBS OnDemand. I didnt really want to watch it, but tried it for 5 minutes and couldnt stop. Rotten-tomatoes give it 100%, Metacritic 96%. 5 stars on the Katichmeter.

  40. http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/hundreds-of-train-drivers-quit-rail-union-as-leaders-butt-heads-over-finances-20161213-gta3z3.html

    The union that shut down Melbourne’s train and tram systems last year with a series of strikes is in crisis after hundreds of train drivers tore up their memberships over a fight between leaders for control of the union’s finances.

    Almost 400 Metro train drivers have quit, fracturing Victoria’s Rail, Tram and Bus Union, after being ordered not to pay their dues into a special bank account because they were in breach of union rules.

  41. bk @ #485 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 6:53 pm

    This last two weeks I have been bingeing on Scandinavian and French drama series on SBS On Demand. There is some really good stuff available there.

    Clever gentleman. I watched “Ida” a couple of days ago. Poland is almost scandihoobean and je ne parl pas frenchies anyhow.
    Sounds like an excellent plan for when not gardening or cleaning, which is nearly all the time. 🙂

  42. http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/two-melbourne-council-candiates-charged-with-election-offences-20161213-gtacum.html

    Two Melbourne City Council candidates have been charged with offences stemming from October’s election, amid allegations the woman who was set to become the city’s first Indigenous councillor was not eligible to run.

    Richard Foster and Brooke Wandin were charged with the unlawful nomination and false declaration by the Local Government Investigations and Compliance Inspectorate on Tuesday.
    ::::

    Ms Wandin was successfully elected as a councillor in October when she stood as an Indigenous Voice candidate, but resigned just days after the election when it emerged she did not live within the council area.

    It is understood she used the address of one her running mates, former Labor councillor Richard Foster, for the nomination.

  44. BK,
    Just started Midnight Sun last night, by the same folk who made The Bridge. The violence is graphic but the characters have already drawn me in over 2 episodes.
    Also recommend Lilyhammer, a spin off from The Sopranos, but funny. You’d need to watch it from the beginning though.

  45. Monica
    I have just got up to Episode 6 of Midnight Sun. It’s really good.
    I did watch Lillyhammer a few years ago and it was very funny.

  46. [Victorian voters are warming to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation]

    Maybe the Greens and POH can form a coalition. Seems a reasonable position given they both share an extreme ideology.

  47. BK,
    Lillyhammer is still going. Good to know Midnight Sun is holding up. I’m looking forward to the next series of The Fall.

  48. Because you really want to be seen cutting and pasting an article critical of an Indigenous candidate simply because of their links to a member of the Labor Party.

    I think I know now why The Greens don’t have any Indigenous MPs.

  50. BK and
    Monica
    Thanks VM for recommendation re SBS on demand.
    This blog is an excellent source of information for what ails you or me.

Comments Page 10 of 12
1 … 9 10 11 12

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *