Results from Newspoll and Essential Research have elicited next to no change on BludgerTrack, at least so far as the results are concerned – negligible movement all round on voting intention, although what’s there is enough for the Coalition to claw back a seat in Queensland on the projection. Newspoll provides a set of leadership numbers as always, and here too their effect is negligible.
What is new on BludgerTrack is that it’s now tracking One Nation, although the only hard data here is that Essential Research has been providing since the start of September. Polls that don’t report One Nation still have some influence on them through their “others” results, and the estimated results for them show up as data points on the chart. I’ve implemented a bit of a cheat to get the One Nation trendline started from the beginning by using their national Senate vote of 4.3% as a post-election starting point. However, the “since election” reading on the tables goes off the national House of Representatives result of 1.3%, which is unflattering to them as they only fielded 15 candidates.
Two bits of electoral boundaries news to relate:
• The redistribution of the two federal seats in the Northern Territory has been finalised, with no changes made to September’s draft proposal. Three thousand voters have been transferred from growing Solomon (covering Darwin and Palmerston) to stagnant Lingiari (covering the remainder of the territory), in an area encompassing Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli at the eastern edge of Palmerston, together with the Litchfield Shire areas around Knuckey Lagoon east of Darwin. To the very limited extent that this will have an electoral effect, it will be to strengthen Labor in Solomon and weaken them in Lingiari, the area transferred being conservative-leaning.
• The South Australian state redistribution has been finalised, with a large number of changes made to the draft published in August. These are largely to the benefit of the Liberals, who stand aggrieved by their failure to win government in 2014 despite winning the two-party vote by 53-47. The draft redrew the Labor marginals of Elder and Mawson to make them notionally Liberal. However, they did the opposite in Fisher, a normally conservative-leaning seat that Labor managed to win at a by-election in December 2014 after the death of independent member Bob Such. This seat has been renamed Hurtle Vale, and pushed southwards into the Labor-voting Morphett Vale area.
The new set of changes adds a further two seats to the Liberal column, most notably Colton, where Labor cops a transfer of 8000 voters from Glenelg North and West Beach (currently in Morphett), turning the Labor margin of 2% into a Liberal margin of 3.7%. The other seat is Newland, where there was so little in it that a further 200 voters in Humbug Scrub have been enough to nudge it to the Liberal side of the pendulum. There has also been a further boost to the Liberal margin in Elder, where gains around Lower Mitcham in the east (currently in Waite) push the margin out from 1.1% to 4.3%.
The Liberals has also benefited in Adelaide, where the reversal of a proposal to move Walkerville out of the electorate leaves the margin at 2.0%, compared with 2.5% at the election and 0.6% in the draft; and in the Labor-held seat of Lee, where an extra 4000 voters from Colton reduce the Labor margin from 4.6% to 2.6%.
Trump’s attack on the military – via the F-35 strike fighter will also be welcome in Russia.
That project is almost a total failure from many reports i have read; and yet we will buy 76 of them at some totally exorbitant cost to our budget.
The submarines are bad enough; can’t wait to see what the budget blowout for them will be.
‘This was an Act of War
Ridiculous overstatement. Get a grip, Guytaur.’
Not at all. If a foreign power interfered in our electoral process, would we not consider it an act of war? Wait a minute…
Doyley – “I have no knowledge, expertise or insight into the dynamics of American internals but I have been wondering if there is currently a bit of head knocking, power grabbing going on”
I have a little knowledge.
The CIA have a bad wrap due to a history of backfiring geopolitical interference, a slowness to react to the end of the cold war and a over-reliance on hightech non-HUMINT. But they have also been shoved into dubious endeavours, resource manipulated, turf warred and politicised – mostly (certainly not always) despite efforts to resist. They have built, over time, some strong internal and external processes of review, self criticism and corrective action. It seems they have learnt a lot of lessons the hard way and I have been told they are a much better agency.
A functioning CIA will help secure the US from foreign threats. A US that feels secure (secure, not a hegemonic) is good for global security.
Read the news articles. NSA and FBI back the Cia conclusion. Don’t fall for thr Trump look over there narrative. Sen Mitch McConnell and Speaker Paul Ryan havve not. Both Republicans
Every nation on earth has a spy agency, like the CIA. It is very easy to take pot shots at them for their screw ups, some of which have had disastrous consequences, but to simply discount them completely on the purported basis of past screw ups or even present weaknesses is the greatest act of national suicide imaginable.
Without the CIA, Trump only has foreign intelligence, like Putin’s FSB.
Dismissing the CIA is a form of unilateral disarmament.
Interesting situation that has occurred to me; I’ve read that Putin may soon try to expand and invade surrounding countries, perhaps emboldened by Trump.
One of those countries is Lithuania, where my grandmother is from, and where I am currently waiting on my dual citizenship application (I had hoped it would open up some work opportunities for me in the Schengen zone). It could technically get approved any time now, but if Putin invades, would I lose that dual citizenship? Or would it be transferred to a Russian dual citizenship?
Speaking of the Russians –
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-38294204
bonza @ #407 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 1:10 pm
Lithuania is a member of NATO. Should Russia attack or even foment a fake separatist movement, a la Ukraine, it would trigger the NATO security pact. If the USA did not respond comprehensively, the whole of Europe, and the rest of the world, would see the USA as abandoning NATO. Nothing is more likely to bring on a new hot war, possibly a nuclear war, than that.
“Those numbers say that many Coalition voters would consider a new conservative party. ”
Why the need for a “new” conservative party? These disaffected righties (tighty whities? or RWNJs?) are potential recruits for One Nation.
Am I missing something here? Bill’s approval and disapproval ratings are both better than Turnbull’s, but Turnbull is somehow “slightly ahead”. I don’t get it.
CTar1
Russians have been all over Turkey for ages. Thats why MI6 sent in 007.
TPOF
“Lithuania is a member of NATO”
Yep, the three Baltic states all joined NATO – for that very reason. If Putin decided to invade Lithuania, the NATO pact would be activated.
If he did nothing, Trump would look weak. He would hate that. Unless he truly is a Manchurian candidate.
One would expect that the Joint chiefs would not abide a Russian invasion of the Baltics. Nor would the Republican establishment.
@LEROY
Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest since he became prime minister, at 34% approval and 46% disapproval. He remains just slightly ahead of Bill Shorten, who is on an approval rating of 35% and disapproval rating of 38%. However, Turnbull is still viewed as the better prime minister to Shorten at 39% to 28%.
______________________
Maybe I can’t add up but aren’t the above figs saying Shorten is better on 35 approval to Mal’s 34???
Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno · 10h10 hours ago
Are we reaching the point where the Liberals need a Labor govt to rail against because they can’t govern themselves?
That point was reached ages ago. Some press gallery members still haven’t noticed yet.
About the time they rolled Gorton.
I have always had a lot of time for the opinions of former CIA Agent Bob Baer. Especially now:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/12/12/it-s-time-for-president-obama-to-talk-to-the-american-people-about-trump-and-putin.html?via=newsletter&source=DDAfternoon
This is a very good article by Michael Tomasky which lays out the way ahead for President Obama on the subject of Russion Cyber Warfare involvement in the POTUS election.
Would I be right in saying that this week’s poll put the LNP primary probably somewhere south of 37 and it still hasn’t fully captured the carbon price back-flip. This is really bad stuff for the Libs. But, in a way, the worse the Libs poll, the stronger Malcolm’s position, because if they will be terrified of dumping him and precipitating an election. Go figure
The article also lays out in plain english why the Russian intervention in the POTUS election, via Wikileaks, is indeed an ‘Act of War’ against the United States. Without a bullet having to be fired. Words can be bullets too, remember:
Full Essential poll here.
TPP: ALP 53 (+1) L/NP 47 (-1)
Primary: ALP 37(-1) L/NP 37(+1) GRN 9(0) ON 7(-1) NXT 3(0) OTH 6(0)
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Essential-Report_161213.pdf
Trump will look to shutdown NATO. Usual Trump rhetoric of other members failing to pay their way. Europe will need to look after itself. Russia just needs to bide their time.
Re a new “Conservative” party. I think that it is possible that a charismatic right wing demagogue with financial backing could rally the Liberal Right, the Nationals, Family First and the saner elements of One Nation, the Australian Liberty Alliance and other fringe groups into a new right wing force. One Nation isn’t that force, it’s just too flakey and won’t last out next year.
Such a party could be hard line anti immigrant, explicitly denialist on climate change, socially conservative, anti environmentalist and strongly pro business and pro market. It might have access to rivers of gold and other backing from the fossil fuel industry, the miners, the Ruperts, the IPA and others. In some ways, it could mirror the founding of the Liberal Party itself from the ruins of the old UAP.
Probably unlikely, but could happen in the wake of a serious recession, especially if Labor is in power at the time.
It probably won’t happen, the Liberals will keep charging to the right to make up ground, will dump Malcolm soon enough and its few remaining ‘moderates’ are thoroughly converted or cowed and silenced. But no one thought Brexit would happen, no one thought Trump would win, few thought Marine Le Pen would be a serious Presidential candidate in France.
It would be interesting if the Congress declared war based on NATO agreements and the President (as Commander-in-Chief) refused to. Pretty sure the President can still use such agreements to sideline Congress, but Congress cant do the reverse. I am assuming the only way around this for Congress would be to impeach (or threat there-of).
It is a little freaky…. Trump; Commander-in-Chief of Armed Froces of the US. What were they thinking!?!
AB11,
I was told last night that the only reason the Coalitioon haven’t dumped Turnbull already is that the RWNJs realise that they are as popular as a case of herpes, and they can’t decide who to put up to replace Turnbull. I think you can deduce from that that they realise that Tony Abbott is as popular as two cases of herpes, oral and genital. They also realise that their new Golden Boy, the Dud Spud, is as charismatic and popular as a mangy dog. 🙂
So they are stuffed, basically. Which is why they are doubling and tripling down on trying to demonise Bill Shorten.
Russia involvement in the US election is Trumps first test as President. As it comes before inauguration and before the vote of the electoral college, I am a little surprised at how badly he is dealing with it.
Cotmomma – totally agree. The RWNJs are using the Liberal Party as a host organism. They have hijacked its historic brand and use it as a power multiplier. Malcolm’s job is safe unless he tries to take them on (which he won’t). However, if there is dire polling well into next year, he might well take the Cayman Option and jet off into the sunset. I don’t see him hanging around to get a poll beating.
Sorry, corrected summary here…
TPP: ALP 53 (+1) L/NP 47 (-1)
Primary: ALP 37(+1) L/NP 37(-1) GRN 9(0) ON 7(-1) NXT 3(0) OTH 6(0)
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Essential-Report_161213.pdf
AB11,
I think the public humiliation of Mitt Romney by Trump is proving that some politicians can take an awful lot of it.
Simon Katich Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 1:39 pm
Russia involvement in the US election is Trumps first test as President. As it comes before inauguration and before the vote of the electoral college, I am a little surprised at how badly he is dealing with it.
***************************************************
Trump-supporting Tea Partier stuns CNN host by saying the president-elect is on the verge of treason
“For Donald Trump to come out and attack our men and women in the CIA, that’s almost treasonous,” Walsh said. “Russia attacks us and Trump attacks the CIA. He ought to be the one calling for an investigation.”
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/12/trump-supporting-tea-partier-stuns-cnn-host-by-saying-the-president-elect-is-on-the-verge-of-treason/
simon katich @ #424 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 1:39 pm
Trump’s ego is such that he could not possibly countenance the idea that his victory was due to anything other than his genius. The idea of Russian intervention occurring, let alone having an impact, would be as alien as the suggestion that his victory is down to the spell casting of a coven of witches on a Scottish heath.
All Trump had to do was say he supported the investigation but hold that he won fair and square.
It makes me wonder if the rumours of Trump aiding or abetting the intrusion have a tinge of truth to it.
Simon Katich,
Thank to for your informative reply. Interesting times in America.
Cheers.
What a wonderful thought, a new far right party to split the coalition in half.
MTBW
#396 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 12:53 pm
That I know, it was a comment about the blogers that bit on BB’s comment of who was DV
What a wonderful thought, a new far right party to split the coalition in half.
Hopefully they would do to the Liberals what the DLP did to Labor. On the other hand, they might simply absorb most of them.
Sydney has peaked around the old century mark in the old money. So far it’s reached 38-39 in most suburbs. Sydney City peaked at 37.8 (100.0F) before dropping back after a humid sea breeze arrived.
How stupid are you if you voted for the Libs at the last election because you MIGHT get a new Malcolm (when all the evidence pointed the other way). Now you get to watch him wreck the joint for the next two years.
The RWNJs are doing here what the Tea Party tried in the USA. Be a parasitic attachment. While it professes a symbiotic relationship with the small l Libs, what it is actually doing is infiltrating to attempt to steer the ship of govt.
Rock on February!
test
Jen – Yup, if Cory didn’t have the liberal party, he’d be a nobody walking around laughing at clouds.
How stupid are you if you voted for the Libs
very
The idea of Russian intervention occurring, let alone having an impact, would be as alien as the suggestion that his victory is down to the spell casting of a coven of witches on a Scottish heath.
I see what you did there! 😉
I’m actually over Turnbull now. Predicting him being a fucking disaster of biblical proportions was dead easy. At least as easy as predicting Abbott being a joke. Further demonstration of his utter cravenness is just boring.
Come on Libs. Neck the prick now and give us something new to laugh at. This joke is just not funny anymore.
Yup, if Cory didn’t have the liberal party, he’d be a nobody walking around yelling at clouds.
There, fixed it. 😉
C@tmomma Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 2:56 pm
Yup, if Cory didn’t have the liberal party, he’d be a nobody walking around yelling at clouds.
**********************************************
With apologies to William Wordsworth :
I wandered lonely as a cloud
That floats on high o’er vales and hills,
When all at once I saw a crowd,
A host, of golden LNPdills ;
Beside the lake, beneath the trees,
Fluttering and dancing in the breeze.
kakuru @ #413 Tuesday, December 13, 2016 at 1:24 pm
And doesn’t Russia just love having NATO on its border?
The unpleasantness in Ukraine is largely because NATO / US reneged on a deal the Russians thought they had for NATO not to expand to its border.
Not a bad idea to try to look at things from the other guys perspective.
Exxon Mobil – you know Trump’s potential Secretary of State guy Tillerson are in a $500 billion joint venture with Russia to drill the Arctic. Blocked by sanctions.
Could this imply a conflict of interest? Surely not.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/trump-putin-exxonmobil-team-destroy-planet-15669/
…said bemused.
Government contracted modelling on electricity provision based on fairy tales. Basically assumes the price of gas and solar will stay the same for twenty years.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/modelling-from-government-advisor-shows-high-ret-may-be-cheapest-option-82484/
Here we go. Right on cue. First act of the kleptocracy, drill the Arctic. money for Exxon, money for Putin. everyone is happy.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-picks-reg-tillerson-exxon-ceo-as-secretary-of-state-20161213-gta3nd.html
Hi everyone – long time lurker, first time commenting WRONG. So how’s that Trump, who’d have thought? I blame Nixon, that sonofabitch Nixon.
So what are you all talking about, me?