BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Little change this week to a poll aggregate that now comes with the added bonus of One Nation. Also featured: South Australian and Northern Territory redistribution news.

Results from Newspoll and Essential Research have elicited next to no change on BludgerTrack, at least so far as the results are concerned – negligible movement all round on voting intention, although what’s there is enough for the Coalition to claw back a seat in Queensland on the projection. Newspoll provides a set of leadership numbers as always, and here too their effect is negligible.


What is new on BludgerTrack is that it’s now tracking One Nation, although the only hard data here is that Essential Research has been providing since the start of September. Polls that don’t report One Nation still have some influence on them through their “others” results, and the estimated results for them show up as data points on the chart. I’ve implemented a bit of a cheat to get the One Nation trendline started from the beginning by using their national Senate vote of 4.3% as a post-election starting point. However, the “since election” reading on the tables goes off the national House of Representatives result of 1.3%, which is unflattering to them as they only fielded 15 candidates.

Two bits of electoral boundaries news to relate:

• The redistribution of the two federal seats in the Northern Territory has been finalised, with no changes made to September’s draft proposal. Three thousand voters have been transferred from growing Solomon (covering Darwin and Palmerston) to stagnant Lingiari (covering the remainder of the territory), in an area encompassing Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli at the eastern edge of Palmerston, together with the Litchfield Shire areas around Knuckey Lagoon east of Darwin. To the very limited extent that this will have an electoral effect, it will be to strengthen Labor in Solomon and weaken them in Lingiari, the area transferred being conservative-leaning.

• The South Australian state redistribution has been finalised, with a large number of changes made to the draft published in August. These are largely to the benefit of the Liberals, who stand aggrieved by their failure to win government in 2014 despite winning the two-party vote by 53-47. The draft redrew the Labor marginals of Elder and Mawson to make them notionally Liberal. However, they did the opposite in Fisher, a normally conservative-leaning seat that Labor managed to win at a by-election in December 2014 after the death of independent member Bob Such. This seat has been renamed Hurtle Vale, and pushed southwards into the Labor-voting Morphett Vale area.

The new set of changes adds a further two seats to the Liberal column, most notably Colton, where Labor cops a transfer of 8000 voters from Glenelg North and West Beach (currently in Morphett), turning the Labor margin of 2% into a Liberal margin of 3.7%. The other seat is Newland, where there was so little in it that a further 200 voters in Humbug Scrub have been enough to nudge it to the Liberal side of the pendulum. There has also been a further boost to the Liberal margin in Elder, where gains around Lower Mitcham in the east (currently in Waite) push the margin out from 1.1% to 4.3%.

The Liberals has also benefited in Adelaide, where the reversal of a proposal to move Walkerville out of the electorate leaves the margin at 2.0%, compared with 2.5% at the election and 0.6% in the draft; and in the Labor-held seat of Lee, where an extra 4000 voters from Colton reduce the Labor margin from 4.6% to 2.6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

567 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. One of the founders of Aussie rules is the forebear of retired Justice Tim Smith (“Tattslotto Tim”) of the Victorian Supreme Court -a highly progressive judge – and his son Michael, a prominent academic and environmentalist in the ACT

  2. It looks a fair bit fairer and with it, the overdue opportunity for South Australian Labour to take a breather on the backbenches.

  3. I was surprised that Fairfax even mentioned Bernardi’s anti-immigration stance in this headline article.

    Bernardi’s ideas are similar to Hanson’s ON re controlling our rampant immigration rate.
    The Herald usually refuses to even discuss our growing population and its effects since they are so wedded to property advertising.

    Contrast it to the hatchet job done by Andrew Street (who I normally like reading) on Dick Smith after he supported One Nation’s stance against rampant immigration.

    Smith, btw, made it very clear he didn’t support ON’s anti Muslim stance, unlike Betnardi, when interviewed by Harmer on ABC radio.

  4. Maude Lynne

    I’ve noticed that some people still confuse “Dick Smith Electronics”, or whatever the name is, with Dick Smith the person, vowing never to buy any of his goods.

  5. Sydney morning Herald editorial this morning calls Malcolm totally useless. But, oh, how does it justify actually supporting him at the last election? It said that if Malcolm received “a strong mandate” he would be able to rein in the extremists. But, unfortunately, the “precarious nature” of Turnbull’s leadership informs every decisions he makes.
    Two points:
    1. Why did you idiots at the Herald think Turnbull was going to have a big win?
    2. Face it, Turnbull could have a 30 seat majority and he would still be kow-towing to the maddies.
    But, of course, you could have supported Labor and wouldn’t have had to worry about 1 and 2.

  6. Got me again William!

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. There’s no doubt about it – the MSM are turning on Turnbull.

    Urban Wronski – Turnbull claims a shotgun victory in the worst week of his political life.
    This SMH editorial really has a go at our weak PM.
    Ian Dunlop calls for honesty on climate change and energy policy.
    On climate change and the economy, we’re trapped in an idiotic netherworld writes Greg Jericho.
    And Laura Tingle tells us that to just be clear there is NO alternative climate plan. Google.
    And nobody knows if TRUMP is real! What a bozo! A dangerous bozo.
    Intelligence agencies are fearful of reprisals from Trump over the allegations of Russian interference in the election.
    Bernardi sends out a warning to his Liberal Party colleagues. “You’ll hear more from me in 2017”, he says.
    More electricity price rises are on the horizon. Google.
    This aspiring businessman in a Liberal incubator has landed in a spot of bother.
    And another Liberal incubator has been forced by a CA Royal Commission report to admit that it failed to act in the best interests of its students.
    Hypocritical? Duplicitous? What word best fits this for Barnaby Joyce?

  7. Section 2 . . .

    The government has ruled out stimulus-style spending.
    Despite being defunded by the government the Australian National Library’s “Trove” expansion is continuing.
    There’s finger pointing galore over what is a huge cost blow out with Sydney’s light rail.
    Suppliers are on edge after Woolworths’ win in court last week.
    Mark Dreyfus writes that Gillian Triggs is still holding on and her reward is continuing torment. It’s not just her either. Other statutory officers have been shabbily treated too.
    Can Le Pen win a la Trump?
    Andrew Bolt continues his disdainful attacks on Turnbull. Google.
    Kate McClymont on the con man who bought his PhD for $249.95.
    Will burgeoning fast food home delivery contribute more to our obesity problem?
    Is America f****d or what!!!!

  8. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Quentin Dempster says that the Carmichael mega coal project is the mother of all or fears.
    Dental care is way beyond the financial resources of many people.
    General Electric joins the fray and encourages states to go it alone on renewable energy.
    Tim Dick has an interesting proposition here.
    Who has been the best Premier of Queensland?

    Mark David and political bragging rights.

    Cathy Wilcox in defence of cartoonists in certain other countries.

    Mark Knight does the bidding for News Ltd’s apparent fake news.
    What IS it with Bill Leak?

  9. Zoomster
    I found your comment yesterday sort of interesting because in fact you unwittingly made my point.

    I was making what I thought was a relatively benign and generally accepted comment that cost of living was going up and we might be starting to see people steal food , especially meat.

    You then commented about how when your kids were young you had limited income but coped, able to eat etc. That indeed was my point. Meat and fish and some fruits and veges have gone up a lot in price I think relative to incomes – not average incomes but median incomes, and certainly relative to newstart and probably the aged pension.

    When you combine this with huge rent increases (we KNOW that there are many homeless because rent is unaffordable) we may well start to see people steal meat, especially around Xmas time.

    One issue is that when they calculate the CPI (and hence newstart) they look at a whole range of things like consumer goods etc that people on lower incomes just do not buy (or only second hand).

    A quick look at the CPI shows an increase in 44% since 2001 while BEEF prices have gone up 400%. Given we know lamb which used to be the poor man’s meat has gone up way way more than beef, I rest my case. Chicken has fallen of course and perhaps pork.

  10. Hi Lizzie

    Yes, using your name as the business name can have unfortunate consequences, as Dick Smith would know. I’m sure people blamed him when the business refused to honour their gift cards.

  11. Thanks BK. Nobody miss Gittins today. Wonderful piece on: the politicisation of Treasury; what a shabby rag the Angry White Male Gazette is why Malcolm keeps parotting that the Govt is not an ATM.

  12. Thanks for the update William, tracking One Nation makes sense,especially in Queensland.
    Though I am not sure of your definition of ‘bonus’:

    “Little change this week to a poll aggregate that now comes with the added bonus of One Nation.”

    Labor on 75 seats.

  13. AB11, the Herald may criticise Turnbull but it could never have supported Labor at last election. Labor’s NG policy would affect house prices and sales and hence Fairfax advertising profits.
    Totally unacceptable.

  14. Turnbull intransigent as economy goes down the gurgler
    Mungo MacCallum

    ……. when the September accounts emerged far worse that even the most pessimistic practitioners of the dismal science predicted, they hastened to assure us that once the entrails of next quarter’s chooks had been assessed, things would be better.

    Malcolm Turnbull managed to ignore the first three months of his narrow escape; this was no more than a bump in the road, he had other things to shuffle aside. But his Treasurer, Scott Morrison, could not avoid comment, which he did initially by blaming Bill Shorten and the Labor Party for everything.

    So perhaps fortunately the caravan moved on, to watch Turnbull in his customary position – denying his own previous promises and convictions, ignoring physics, economics and common sense in yet another futile grovel to assuage the insatiable lunar right of his party room.

    In the process he threw the hapless Josh Frydenberg under a bus, forcing him to perjure himself in supplication for daring to hint what all the experts had told him

    In spite of all this Turnbull remains determinedly upbeat: innovation (although not obviously, on environment policy) is still the key to everything

    Of course in the meantime he risks being exposed as an unprincipled coward, a fraud and a poltroon. But that will be just another poll. And you should never rely on just one set of figures…

    MORE :

  15. Malcolm may be remaining ‘determinedly upbeat’, but the strain is showing on his face and betraying him in his aggressive speech.

  16. After reading the article on Qld Premiers, it seems odd to think that Qld has in fact been the MOST Labor state in the Country. In the last 100 years Labor has ruled for 70% of the time. It is the only state to have ever consciously elected a communist – twice

    Of course those of us of a “certain age” reached maturity in the height of the Joh years, where conservatism seemed entrenched, especially to Southerners. Qld was associated with extreme conservatism. Of course no one commented that the HUGE Brisbane Council was solidly Labor as were most of the regional city councils.

  17. dtt

    ‘Given that we know…’ seems to be a preface to you saying something we don’t know.

    Lamb is around $10 a kilo at the moment. It hasn’t ‘gone up way more than beef.’

  18. Trump Says He Doesn’t Need Daily Intelligence Briefing Because He’s ‘Smart’

    President-elect Donald Trump said in an interview airing Sunday that he doesn’t need to receive a daily intelligence briefing, stating he only gets the briefing when he needs it.

    “I don’t have to be told ― you know, I’m, like, a smart person. I don’t have to be told the same thing in the same words every single day,”

    President Barack Obama has a briefing six days a week.

  19. Of course you can’t assuage the far Right (just as you can’t the far Left). Extremists are always that; move towards them, and they’ll move further away.

  20. AshGhebranious ‏@AshGhebranious · 33m33 minutes ago

    And the Turnbull legacy to Australia lives on! Australia’s largest telescope threatened by a pathetic internet connection #auspol #NBN

  21. BK
    Absolute condemnation of the climate deniers in this mornings assemblage.
    Also noting the crap talk of the likes of Palaszczuk:

    Queensland premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, argued that “the life of this project will be anywhere between 50 and 60 years. That means generational jobs.

    What rubbish.
    And Shorten also supports the Adani mine “provided it stacks up”. How an the fucking thing ever “stack up” given the imperative to reduce emissions.
    This is why we need an effective environmental party in this country, because it sure ain’t Labor.

  22. Trog

    The proposed loan is to build the railway to the mine. It may become an expensive stranded asset. Then more money will be spent to provide a use for it. That’s how development works 🙁

  23. Morning bludgers

    Momentum is building in the USA with respect to Russia and its interference in the election. This has a long way to play out

  24. Michael Pascoe ‏@MichaelPascoe01 · 16h16 hours ago

    Bloody hell, sounds like @MathiasCormann buys the Tea Party nonsense pushed by Minerals Council’s mate Makin. Blind & irresponsible.

  25. it is so obvious to anyone who takes the time to see, that Turnbull and CO are governing with the interests of the vested interests, and stuff everyone else. Seriously, the electorate should be shunning away from this mob in droves.

  26. During the 45th parliament I have heard the commentators use the phrase ‘throw under a bus’ ad nauseum.

    I am starting to seriously worry about the mental health of bus drivers around the nation. It must be extremely hazardous trying to avoid those Liberal members of parliament, and then dealing with the anguish of causing their demise.

    No doubt the government has also cut funding to counselling services to bus drivers.

  27. Lizzie
    Barnaby’s bestie Gina will also benefit from the railway line – if she can find a market for her coal. Otherwise it’s a subsidised railway to nowhere.

  28. Today, Gillian Triggs will be called back to appear in front of coalition senators – the government having decided that seven-and-a-half hours of grilling at the last estimates hearing in October was insufficient. Who knows how long she will be subjected to belligerent questioning during today’s hearing.

    Let’s not pretend here.

    Triggs is not being recalled so that further facts of any matter can be established. It is simply another step in the coalition’s campaign, led by senators Ian MacDonald and Barry O’Sullivan, to harm her because they do not like what she stands for.

    What she stands for is the right for independent statutory officers to do their jobs, to not be afraid to criticise the government where it is warranted, and to refuse to back down under fierce criticism.

    The campaign against Gillian Triggs by the coalition and certain segments of the media long ago crossed a line from fair scrutiny to extended harassment. It is without precedent.

    In allowing these attacks to go on, Malcolm Turnbull is displaying a serious dereliction of duty. He should be actively defending independent statutory officers, not standing by and allowing them to be torn down by government MPs for simply doing their job.

    By staying silent, he is condoning and accepting this utterly damaging treatment.

    No doubt, today’s hearing will be just as horrible to watch as previous hearings, and she will once more be treated with the utmost disrespect. I hold out hope the government might see how badly they are viewed thanks to the bellicose behaviour of senators Ian MacDonald and Barry O’Sullivan, and have them change their demeanour, but that hope is probably futile.

  29. Dick Smith is a good guy but with wacky judgment in some areas. I know of a case where he actually paid off the mortgage of a needy family and expected nothing in return.
    His latest support of Hanson to assist his migration hobby horse is way off. I get the feeling he is a fan of the execrable Macca, although not sure about this.

  30. Nice effort from Dreyfus in that article, sharp as a razor.

    I notice the ‘Dreyfus will resign’ story by Massola died a quick death. Imagine my shock. But boy didn’t it ‘seem so plausible’ to some?

  31. Morning all. Thanks BK. There are some dubious rail lines being discussed at present, both to Adani and Sydney SE LRT. I will not defend the former.

    The latter (Sydney LRT) should be a good project but has been badly rushed. The auditor general’s report makes the reasons why clear here.

    The AG said this about the State’s management:
    “However, meeting such a tight timeframe meant an inadequate business case, poor governance in the planning stage, and uncertain scope during tendering. These combined to increase the project’s complexity and risk, and reduce value for money for the State.”

    And this about the reason for the cost blowout:
    “While part of this increase was due to scope changes and planning modifications, $517 of the $549 million increase was caused by mispricing and omissions in the business case.”

    In other words, the bulk of the problems were due to the (NSW Lib) governance and planning.

  32. So, if the Gremlins have you by the short and curlies and you enter ‘test’ then you slip past them and get to where you want to go?
    I hesitate to mention this lest it motivates them to stuff that up as well.

  33. I wish to state that I don’t give a stuff what Tony Abbott is reading in his “leisuretime”. It is far more important to know when his political influence will fade away.

  34. zoomster @ #17 Monday, December 12, 2016 at 8:10 am

    ‘Given that we know…’ seems to be a preface to you saying something we don’t know.
    Lamb is around $10 a kilo at the moment. It hasn’t ‘gone up way more than beef.’

    Meat and produce are subject to seasonal factors and beef has gone up considerably in recent months. If you want to buy out of season produce, then you will pay top dollar, but generally fresh fruit and vegetables are not expensive in season.

    My solution to high meat prices is to still buy my favourite cuts but just have smaller portions. Australians eat too much red meat anyway.

    Bleats about ‘cost of living’ all too often translate to ‘cost of lifestyle’.

  35. desert qlder @ #32 Monday, December 12, 2016 at 9:01 am

    Nice effort from Dreyfus in that article, sharp as a razor.
    I notice the ‘Dreyfus will resign’ story by Massola died a quick death. Imagine my shock. But boy didn’t it ‘seem so plausible’ to some?

    What story was that? The one where he threatened to resign over Shorten’s choice of Conroy’s replacement? Hearing Dreyfus tap dance around giving a direct answer leaves me in no doubt about it happening. But so what? All sort of treats get made in debates without any serious intention to carry through.

  36. Good Morning


    What a year for the Dawn Patrol. You do such an excellent job you should be paid for it.

    Merry Christmas to you and family

  37. boerwar @ #35 Monday, December 12, 2016 at 9:06 am

    So, if the Gremlins have you by the short and curlies and you enter ‘test’ then you slip past them and get to where you want to go?
    I hesitate to mention this lest it motivates them to stuff that up as well.

    Whispering. I think that the act of posting restores ones standing (joke).
    I post a dot . .It seems to work.

  38. Senate Legal Constitutiona Affairs Committee is on now. Professor Triggs up. Brandis later. I am expecting some Bell Affair questions from Labor and cross benches

  39. Lamb is around $10 a kilo at the moment. It hasn’t ‘gone up way more than beef.’

    I don’t know about over east, but here lamb is cheaper than beef.

  40. @ Boerwar – you know for a fact that the Canberra light rail will icnrease, not decrease the number of trees. Your constant pretending that this inconvenient truth does not exist does you no credit.

  41. Laura Tingle:

    Neither man would appreciate the comparison but there are certain similarities between Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd.

    When Rudd got into political trouble, he tended to busy himself with the minutiae of reports and seeking more information, rather than deal with the issue of the day. The current Prime Minister doesn’t quite do that. But he does tend to focus on the technicalities of an issue, even as the politics burns around him.

    Both men have also had their credibility smashed by appearing to give up all notions of leadership on climate change.

    Read more:
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  42. Confessions.

    Two major differences between Rudd and Turnbull. Guts. See Climate change. As LNP kept whinging under Rudd Australia was leading the world.

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