Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition in NSW

Mike Baird’s personal ratings maintain their downward trajectory, but Newspoll finds his Coalition government retaining its narrow lead.

2016-12-09-nsw-trendThe Australian has what will hopefully be the first in a series of Newspoll state voting intention results, this being the latest bi-monthly result for New South Wales, conducted in November and early December from a sample of 1567. The poll finds the Coalition holding on to its 51-49 lead from September-October, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (down one), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 11% (steady). Mike Baird’s approval rating is now at 35%, down a further four points from the last poll, and his disapproval is up four to 50%. Luke Foley is up two on approval to 34%, and up one on disapproval to 40%. Baird’s lead as preferred premier has shifted from 42-24 to 43-26.

The charts above show poll aggregation trends going back to the election of the Coalition government in 2011, using bias-adjusted results from 74 polls conducted by seven pollsters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition in NSW”

  1. Obviously many voters have had enough of Baird’s slimy, unctuous, sanctimonious manner. He’s not going to win the Libs any votes between now and the next election

  2. Clearly the halcyon days for the LNP in NSW are over and they have come back to the field. It was not so long ago that some were predicting if would be 2-3 elections before Labor would get a sniff of power in NSW. While I would not put money of them now to win, with the margin getting into MOE territory then who can tell what might happen? I sense NSW Labor are where they are, due to the failings of the Baird government rather than anything out of the ordinary that Labor has done off its own bat. Seen from the perspective of t’other side of the continent, with the LNP seeking a third term in WA, it is still no certainty that Labor can get enough seats to see Barnett off – even after 8 years.

  3. Baird is bottoming out if not turning around (see Ipsos poll with him leading 53-47 last week).
    Foley’s has little to offer and has resorted to currying favour with 2GB to get ahead. He directed ALP voters to preference the Orange (now) member who wants to wind back gun laws. Opportunism may get you over the line in elections but you need a government in disarray which this one is not.

  4. Foley has done well. He won 2 by elections convincingly and he preferenced Shooters and claimed scalp of deputy premier. In last federal election, in the local elections and in the by elections ALP has performed well. 51-49 to Coalition is on last state election preferences when Baird was very popular so at this stage Foley’s ALP is competitive.

    53-47 to Coalition Fairfax poll seems to be on the high side to Coalition. I don’t see anything for Baird to turn things around so quickly after getting smashed in Orange.

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