Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be the last Newspoll of the year adds to impression given by other pollsters of slight movement to the Coalition as the year draws to an end.

More evidence that the Coalition is ending the year in a very slightly better position than it’s been in over the past few months, this time courtesy of Newspoll in The Australian, which records Labor’s lead narrowing to 52-48 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. The Coalition now leads 39% to 36% on the primary vote, after a 38% draw in the last poll, with the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32% and up one on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 34% and steady at 51%. Turnbull holds a 41-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 43-33 in the last poll. The accompanying report has further results on the salience of jobs, asylum seekers and same-sex marriage as political issues. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1629.

UPDATE (Essential Research): After a week at 51-49, Essential Research moves back a point in favour of Labor, who now lead 52-48. The most interesting aspect of the primary vote is that One Nation have gained a point to reach a new high of 8%, with the Coalition down one to 38%, and Labor, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 36%, 9% and 3%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions records approval ratings for senior government ministers, which finds Julie Bishop to be by far the government’s most popular figure, with 52% approval and 23% disapproval. Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce, Greg Hunt, Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison more or less break even, but George Brandis has a net rating of minus 8%, and Hunt records a particularly high “don’t know” rating.

A “party trust to handle issues” question records a slight deterioration across the board for the Coalition since August, the biggest mover being “controlling interest rates”, on which their lead has narrowed from 12% to 7%. On a series of “party best at looking after the economy” questions, the Coalition has an 11% lead over Labor on “handling the economy overall”, but a less helpful 33% lead on “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests”, with nothing separating the parties on “handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class” and “handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most”. Also canvassed: voluntary euthanasia, Gonski funding, climate change, and where we go when we die.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,249 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Oakeshott Country
    Dealing with those that have loving families who have to watch their love ones suffer because they can’t be treated as well as the family dog is a good place to to start.

  2. Poroti
    I take yourpoint but the overseas evidence suggests that this number is relatively small compared to the number of loving families who treat their loved ones worse than the family dog. I think that we have EOL legislation the meaningless prolongation of suferring needs to be considered in all its forms

  3. You say you have not made a living will!
    Do so. Do it tomorrow.
    In spite of the bad talk about enduring power of attorney. Everybody should also do this.
    Make your will as well.
    Make sure that all your family, your GP, priest, friends know about your arrangements.
    The consequences as noted by Oakeshott Country can be heartbreaking for everybody.
    I have worked in Emergency Departments where those such as described in earlier post were regular occurences.
    The poor residents in the nursing home, in nowhere land, apparently unloved are a pitiful sight.
    This is not to say there is not good work being done but that each of us need to play a part in looking after ourselves now and in the event of catastrophic health events.
    The most loved and favourite daughter will be appearing soon with her husband and son. With a bit of luck husband won’t break any guitar strings. $39 set.
    Good night all. 🙂

  4. Oakeshott Country
    Sunday, December 11, 2016 at 8:07 pm
    I take your point but the overseas evidence suggests that this number is relatively small compared to the number of loving families who treat their loved ones worse than the family dog.

    As things stand there is little option. My dad was lucky he was doctor he know what to do; 1 am in a hospital; not many would have the knowledge or the determination to pull that off in intensive care. Truth is, was not close enough to take the risks and do it for him and wouldn’t know how to do it anyway.

  5. p1
    Thank you. Very funny, actually.
    Even in a thoroughly prepared speech Dylan’s language is awkward.
    As for conscripting the Bard to his pathetic defence, Dylan is so far up his own arse he should be catching a glint of twilight.
    Shakespeare would have pissed himself laughing at Dylan’s doggerel and such ripper images as the ‘smoke rings of his mind’.

  6. OC
    Re: end of life debate, we should be able to address both your issues at the same time. They are not linear. Both are capable of significant improvements.

  7. Frednk
    Under current law every patient has the unshakeable right to refuse treatment/request that it be withdrawn. If they are no longer able to make that decision and have not made a written directive to limit treatment, the person responsible for giving consent has that right, beginning with the person named as enduring guardian.

    Where it falls down is that treating doctors find having this conversation with families difficult and families have difficulty making the decision.

    KayJay has it right – see a lawyer tomorrow and make a living will, appoint an enduring guardian (this is not power of attorney which is a financial directive) and make sure it is someone who can fight for what you want

  8. oakeshott country @ #2205 Sunday, December 11, 2016 at 8:13 pm

    Were you at the Mater ? I used to have a holiday job there cleaning in the ED.

    I was at the Mater. I used to take choccie frogs for the girls.
    I used to have a frilly blue hat which I made the doctors, nurses and staff wear while I took photos. They wore other clothes as well. I instituted a doctor of the year award. The night nurses thought they had a vote. Silly people.
    I was cleaning, trolleys, security, computer fixer, all around smart arse (my own opinion) for many years but left to care for my blind, much loved and in deteriorating health wife.
    One of the pleasures (sort of) was with the likes of the gentleman described making an arse of himself on an aircraft. We could put them in restraints.
    We had a trainee priest working with us for a time. I taught him the theory of how to play bouffles. Not sure of the spelling. The requirement are a fun loving lady with largish boobies and a partner to blow raspberries thereupon. Of course, I am now of a more refined nature.
    I am babbling again. Time to put on my best outfit for the visitors. Mickey Mouse shorts and a Tee Shirt.
    Goodnight all. 🙂

  9. Oakeshott Country
    #2209 Sunday, December 11, 2016 at 8:27 pm
    I would have loved to have a group of CFMEU members representing me in my battles with nursing homes. Ta TA again.

  10. OC
    I think it is good that you raise it. We are in our late sixties and we are going to raise it during our Christmas gathering this year. The first step is to get a large extended family on the same page.

  11. Oakeshott Country
    Refusing treatment is a lot different to saying this it it. Arguing for refusing treatment is in the same camp as “we have great Palliative care “. Refuse palliative care and spend weeks in pain; great option.

  12. I agree with everyone having a living will after seeing my step mother’s father denied his final wishes to refuse cancer by his 2nd wife. No doubt she was acting from a position of emotional distress, but it wasn’t what he wanted, and she shouldn’t have been put in the position of being the person charged with ultimate decision-making. A very traumatic experience for the family all round.

  13. oakeshott country @ #2209 Sunday, December 11, 2016 at 8:27 pm

    Where it falls down is that treating doctors find having this conversation with families difficult and families have difficulty making the decision.
    KayJay has it right – see a lawyer tomorrow and make a living will, appoint an enduring guardian (this is not power of attorney which is a financial directive) and make sure it is someone who can fight for what you want

    My brother and I had to make that decision for our parents.
    I was not aware of any written directives, unless my brother had them and did not share, but we were in no doubt about their wishes and acted accordingly.
    As you say, not easy, but the alternative was worse for them so the correct decision was obvious.

  14. Frednk
    Precisely what I am saying though EOLC is different from palliative care. EOLC is currently legal and is the regular use of opiates and other medications when further treatment is useless without regard to this resulting in death within 24-48 hours. Palliative care is more long term. Both require the patient’s or a substitute consent and this is where a large number of patients suffer when their families can’t make a decision.
    I suspect that many do not know the difference between the two and the current legality of EOLC, indeed I recently had a resident doctor confuse the two with near disastrous results.

  15. For those interested
    According to the exhibition at federation square.Federation began with the writing of the aussie rules rules and had absolutely nothing to do with the White Australia Policy

  16. In another interpretation of history Dally Messenger’s mum accepting J J Giltinan’s sovereign led to the assassination of Franz Ferdinand

  17. Is the Mater Hospital referred to in current discussions one in South Brisbane? If so I was born at that hospital.

    In a curious twist some twenty years later I would begin drinking heavily at the Clarence Corner Hotel, across the road from my birthplace. Now that was a pub! Lock-ins for locals were the norm, open until 3am on a Monday evening if there were enough punters, the publican would serve locals drinks on an IOU.

    Per capita killed more brain cells than any other pub in Australia.

  18. Silver-tongued developers always on the ‘winning’ side.

    Melbourne’s new rules still offer more generous conditions to developers than virtually any other city in the Western world.

    The scheme put in place by Mr Wynne, his expert advisers warned him, was “generous” and “already high as compared to international standards”. And this was before extra height was granted for “public benefits”.

    In their analysis of the unfettered development in recent years, the planning experts said the CBD had been hurt by “hyper-dense and high developments”.

    This was especially true in “much of Southbank and Elizabeth Street” between La Trobe Street and the Queen Victoria Market.

  19. On the NE Link, the promo video refers to tunnelling so depending on the extent and route, that may alleviate environmental concerns. Any major infrastructure project seems to whip up its share of toxic opposition though these days. Elevated rail makes a lot of sense as the Frankston line level crossing solution – both in terms of cost and local amenity- but the anti-“Skyrail” campaign will probably kill it, with 4 marginal seats in play. The level crossing authority had online forums about the options for those crossings and the. vociferous screeching posts about Skyrail had the appearance of an orchestrated campaign. Several coalition candidates at the last Federal election built the No Skyrail theme into their publicity. It’s unfortunate when questions around any public infrastructure plan are opportunistically used for short term political agendas. That’s not to say that there are not reasonable discussions to be had about the options, including in the case of NE link, whether we need it.

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. There’s no doubt about it – the MSM are turning on Turnbull.

    Urban Wronski – Turnbull claims a shotgun victory in the worst week of his political life.
    This SMH editorial really has a go at our weak PM.
    Ian Dunlop calls for honesty on climate change and energy policy.
    On climate change and the economy, we’re trapped in an idiotic netherworld writes Greg Jericho.
    And Laura Tingle tells us that to just be clear there is NO alternative climate plan. Google.
    And nobody knows if TRUMP is real! What a bozo! A dangerous bozo.
    Intelligence agencies are fearful of reprisals from Trump over the allegations of Russian interference in the election.
    Bernardi sends out a warning to his Liberal Party colleagues. “You’ll hear more from me in 2017”, he says.
    More electricity price rises are on the horizon. Google.
    This aspiring businessman in a Liberal incubator has landed in a spot of bother.
    And another Liberal incubator has been forced by a CA Royal Commission report to admit that it failed to act in the best interests of its students.
    Hypocritical? Duplicitous? What word best fits this for Barnaby Joyce?

  21. Section 2 . . .

    The government has ruled out stimulus-style spending.
    Despite being defunded by the government the Australian National Library’s “Trove” expansion is continuing.
    There’s finger pointing galore over what is a huge cost blow out with Sydney’s light rail.
    Suppliers are on edge after Woolworths’ win in court last week.
    Mark Dreyfus writes that Gillian Triggs is still holding on and her reward is continuing torment. It’s not just her either. Other statutory officers have been shabbily treated too.
    Can Le Pen win a la Trump?
    Andrew Bolt continues his disdainful attacks on Turnbull. Google.
    Kate McClymont on the con man who bought his PhD for $249.95.
    Will burgeoning fast food home delivery contribute more to our obesity problem?
    Is America f****d or what!!!!

  22. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Quentin Dempster says that the Carmichael mega coal project is the mother of all or fears.
    Dental care is way beyond the financial resources of many people.
    General Electric joins the fray and encourages states to go it alone on renewable energy.
    Tim Dick has an interesting proposition here.
    Who has been the best Premier of Queensland?

    Mark David and political bragging rights.

    Cathy Wilcox in defence of cartoonists in certain other countries.

    Mark Knight does the bidding for News Ltd’s apparent fake news.
    What IS it with Bill Leak?

  23. Thanks BK

    What a year for the Dawn Patrol. Lots to cover everyday. William should make a deal with Crikey so you get paid. Its that good a job you do and I truly appreciate it.

    An early Merry Christmas for you and family.

  24. Legal and Constitutional affairs Senate Committee today. As Brandis won’t be back from Lonon till 10 morning will br Prof Triggs on 18 C. Afternoon on Brandis and Bell.

  25. The refugee crisis engulfing Europe, emanating from Syria and North Africa, is fundamentally climate change driven and a precursor of greater conflict ahead.

    The above quote is from Ian Dunlop’s article in the SMH this morning. Can someone please explain to me how climate change is driving the refugee crisis? I thought it was a result of people fleeing from war zones.

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