BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Movement back to the Coalition on BludgerTrack this week, as Ipsos and Essential deliver the government relatively encouraging results.

The return of Ipsos this week threw a spanner in the BludgerTrack works, since its results were starkly divergent from the trend of the other two pollsters, to an extent that went well beyond the pollster’s observed peculiarities before the election. In particular, the primary vote for Labor was four points below anything recorded by Newspoll or Essential since the election; the Coalition were about two points below its recent form; and the Greens came in about six points on the high side. My general strategy for bias adjustment had been to use half measures of the difference between election result and trend measurements for the relevant pollster, but that wasn’t remotely adequate to cover the peculiarity of this Ipsos result. So, for the time being at least, I’m incorporating Ipsos in a way that is all-but-neutral to the overall calculation, but in which the trendlines will be affected by the movement in Ipsos results (or will be, when there is more than one Ipsos result to go off).

Despite the Ipsos numbers having little impact on this week’s result, there has been a fairly solid move back to the Coalition on the voting intention reading, which partly reflects the recent trend of Essential Research, which has had Labor’s lead over the past fortnight narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. On the BludgerTrack seat projection, this translates into gains for the Coalition of two seats in Western Australia, and one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Here the Ipsos numbers did play a role, since its state breakdowns were particularly strong for the Coalition in Western Australia and South Australia. Ipsos also makes as much difference as it would always have done to the leadership ratings, the model for which begins with the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership. Reflecting to the overall strength of the Ipsos result for the Coalition, Malcolm Turnbull records a solid recovery on net approval, to the extent of almost closing the gap on Bill Shorten, and widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,118 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

  1. William Bowe wrote:

    One reads an awful lot of idiotic bullshit on this blog…

    For someone whose livelihood presumably depends to some extent on this blog, and its attendees, that is an awful case of biting the hand that feeds you, William.

    Perhaps more surprising is that the bloggers here put up with the constant abuse and denigration from the one person who is supposed to be at least slightly interested in the possibility that they stay around providing clicks.

    Do you write such insulting words just to see what you can get away with?

  2. Newspoll
    52-48 2PP to ALP
    Primaries: Coalition 39, ALP 36, Greens 10, Others 15
    Turnbull: Satisfied 32, Dissatisfied 55
    Shorten: Satisfied 34, Dissatisfied 51
    Better PM: Turnbull 41, Shorten 32
    Dec 1-4, 1629 sample

  3. I do not believe that anybody has been castigated today.
    There has been a lot of good humoured nonsense.
    There has been drollery, silliness, bullshit (high quality), of course and some observations of political and national life.
    Anybody who has improved their life over the years, financially, intellectually or otherwise or simply survived can be pleased with themselves although not necessarily proud. We have not done it by ourselves.
    Here endeth the lesson. 🙂

  4. poroti @ #1097 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 9:49 pm

    C@Tmomma
    The difference may be that unlike Tuffles’ 😆 story he likes to tell of single parent povo upbringing Key did have a truly humble background and attended normal schools. His Father died young and his (refugee) mum had to raise the family in State Housing. His dad had serious lefty cred for fighting against Franco

    Key was born in Auckland, New Zealand, to George Key (1914–1969) and Ruth Key (née Lazar; 1922–2000), on 9 August 1961. His father was an English immigrant and a veteran of the Spanish Civil War and World War II. Key and his two sisters were raised in a state house in the Christchurch suburb of Bryndwr, by his mother, an Austrian Jewish immigrant

    Years ago, decades actually, we had a Spanish Civil War veteran in my ALP branch. Lovely old fellow.
    When I was in Canberra a few years ago I went to the Spanish Civil War memorial hoping to see his name inscribed on it as I had been led to believe it listed the veterans. Alas, it didn’t.
    Never could work out why Franco wasn’t given the boot at the end of WWII. Wouldn’t have taken much.

  5. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-fix-economy-say-voters-as-pm-support-falls-to-lowest-level/news-story/12f2659c283aff92940fff5525b8f04d

    Newspoll: fix economy say voters as PM support falls to lowest level
    The Australian 10:30PM December 5, 2016
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    Voters are looking to the federal government to concentrate on jobs, economic growth and the budget as Malcolm Turnbull ends the year with his support as Prime Minister falling to its lowest level since he seized power.

    The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals the Coalition heads to Christmas with its two-party preferred vote improving from 47 to 48 per cent but still trailing Labor, which has chalked up its sixth successive lead, on 52 per cent.

    Mr Turnbull’s standing has fallen again with his rating as better prime minister dropping two points to 41 per cent, the lowest level since he toppled Tony Abbott as leader 15 months ago. It has tumbled 18 points over the course of this year.

    Mr Turnbull’s margin over Bill Shorten, who currently is favoured by 32 per cent as the preferred prime minister, has plunged from a 39-point lead in January to just nine points.

    Newspoll shows the Prime Minister’s election slogan of “jobs and growth” has been overwhelmingly ranked by voters, including Labor supporters, as the most important issue for Mr Turnbull to address next year.

    Some 36 per cent of voters nominated jobs and economic growth as the top priority, including 41 per cent of Coalition supporters, 34 per cent of Labor voters and 24 per cent of Greens. Dealing with the budget deficit was ranked the most important by 16 per cent of voters, although its importance varied across the parties, with 23 per cent of Coalition supporters nominating it as the priority but only 12 per cent of Labor voters and 8 per cent of Greens ­supporters.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll
    Interactive Newspoll charts

  6. Sky News Australia
    9 mins ·
    #BREAKING US President-elect Donald J. Trump has nominated Ben Carson as his housing secretary.

    Trump’s cabinet is shaping up to be one conga line of crazy loons.

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