The return of Ipsos this week threw a spanner in the BludgerTrack works, since its results were starkly divergent from the trend of the other two pollsters, to an extent that went well beyond the pollster’s observed peculiarities before the election. In particular, the primary vote for Labor was four points below anything recorded by Newspoll or Essential since the election; the Coalition were about two points below its recent form; and the Greens came in about six points on the high side. My general strategy for bias adjustment had been to use half measures of the difference between election result and trend measurements for the relevant pollster, but that wasn’t remotely adequate to cover the peculiarity of this Ipsos result. So, for the time being at least, I’m incorporating Ipsos in a way that is all-but-neutral to the overall calculation, but in which the trendlines will be affected by the movement in Ipsos results (or will be, when there is more than one Ipsos result to go off).
Despite the Ipsos numbers having little impact on this week’s result, there has been a fairly solid move back to the Coalition on the voting intention reading, which partly reflects the recent trend of Essential Research, which has had Labor’s lead over the past fortnight narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. On the BludgerTrack seat projection, this translates into gains for the Coalition of two seats in Western Australia, and one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Here the Ipsos numbers did play a role, since its state breakdowns were particularly strong for the Coalition in Western Australia and South Australia. Ipsos also makes as much difference as it would always have done to the leadership ratings, the model for which begins with the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership. Reflecting to the overall strength of the Ipsos result for the Coalition, Malcolm Turnbull records a solid recovery on net approval, to the extent of almost closing the gap on Bill Shorten, and widened his lead as preferred prime minister.
Morning all!
Good morning.
Not to worry, Malcolm’s insubstantiality and incompetence will rear their heads again.
Plus, Labor will have real policies and the Coalition will just have Tax Cuts for millionaires and billionaires and multinational companies with Australian arms.
Good work, Malcolm! According to the head of the Fruit Growers Association, Backpackers are ALREADY choosing not to come to Australia!
If only the Coalition and the Nationals especially, could have seen the sense in having the same tax rate as New Zealand charges it’s Backpackers.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/02/immigration-officials-routinely-ignore-medical-advice-on-detainees-inquest-told?CMP=share_btn_tw
IMO Immigration officials should be charged with manslaughter.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Shorten has predicted that Turnbull won’t be PM at the time of the next election.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-predicts-malcolm-turnbull-wont-be-prime-minister-by-next-election-20161201-gt28ol.html
John Hewson tells Turnbull that the public couldn’t care less about his “big wins”. He says the government is a sitting duck with no clear medium-term strategies.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/guess-what-malcolm-voters-dont-care-about-your-big-win-20161130-gt1d21.html
And Michelle Grattan wonders if Turnbull persuade sceptical voters that he is actually delivering.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-can-malcolm-turnbull-persuade-sceptical-voters-he-is-delivering-69739
The government’s ‘big win’ on industrial relations, on which it fought two elections, has been reduced to little more than a rebranding exercise, according to a legal expert.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/work/2016/11/30/abcc-backfire/
Mungo MacCallum tells us that the Nationals now represent a greater threat to Turnbull than the crossbenchers.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mungo-maccallum-nationals-now-a-bigger-threat-than-crossbenchers1,9796
Ben Eltham writes that a badly wounded government limps to the long summer break.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/12/02/a-badly-wounded-government-limps-to-the-long-summer-break/
“So did Brandis run dead on $300m in tax payments?” asks Laura Tingle. Google.
/opinion/so-did-george-brandis-run-dead-on-300-million-in-tax-payments-20161201-gt1s1d
Baird is becoming a U-turn specialist.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/cyclist-id-plan-hits-the-skids-in-latest-baird-government-aboutturn-20161201-gt1uml.html
Peter Martin with a pessimistic economic outlook for Australia.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/capex-forecasters-fear-weak-investment-will-mean-weak-or-negative-gdp-growth-20161201-gt20z0.html
You picked them Pauline!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pauline-hanson-angry-at-rod-culleton-over-backpacker-tax-vote-20161201-gt28nr.html
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pauline-hansons-one-nation-splits-over-rod-culletons-high-court-fight-20161201-gt25be.html
Section 2 . . .
Addie Obeid calls in a phalanx of maaattes in an attempt to avoid a custodial sentence.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/eddie-obeid-enlists-55-character-witnesses-in-fight-to-avoid-jail-20161201-gt1yma.html
Michaelia Cash – Turnbull’s pin-up girl.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/michaelia-cash-malcolm-turnbulls-secret-weapon-is-a-woman-on-the-rise-20161201-gt1oaj.html
A parliamentary committee has found that after the three year “siege of attrition” by the government APS wages have fallen below average. It has found that the government has been using misleading information in its campaign.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/senate-committee-says-coalition-has-used-misleading-claims-in-threeyear-public-service-wage-siege-20161130-gt1bnb.html
Is there something here that will move us to more affordable housing?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurers-housing-summit-to-focus-on-cheaper-rentals-more-supply-20161201-gt1noj.html
Can we stop pretending that Trump’s campaign was anything other than a con?
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/can-we-stop-pretending-that-donald-trumps-campaign-was-anything-but-a-con-20161130-gt1dgb.html
How we can resist the siege attack from pseudo-academics.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/were-under-siege-from-a-new-breed-of-intellectual-the-pseudo-academic,9792
How corporate America is responding to the backlash against Trumpism.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/01/trumpism-corporate-america-donald-trump-businesses
The summer outlook for Sydney is a bit of a worry.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/sydneys-sunniest-patch-since-1990-points-to-warm-start-in-a-summer-of-fires-and-heatwaves-20161130-gt1g0f.html
Would Baird REALLY introduce voter ID legislation? It has been very contentious in the US.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/voter-id-the-bombshell-plan-that-brings-an-american-problem-to-nsw-20161130-gt1cc0.html
It’s a sad day that heralds the shutting off of the parliamentary lawns from the public.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/keep-off-the-grass-parliament-house-fence-is-unfortunate-but-unfortunately-we-need-it-20161201-gt1l96.html
Section 3 . . .
Architects don’t like the idea of the fence.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/putting-a-fence-around-it-is-putting-a-noose-around-it-architects-slam-parliament-house-security-upgrade-20161201-gt1q3r.html
This Harvard University academic says that Australia does not deserve a seat on the UN Human Rights Council.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/keep-off-the-grass-parliament-house-fence-is-unfortunate-but-unfortunately-we-need-it-20161201-gt1l96.html
Farmers believe in climate change so why don’t the politicians who represent them believe in it?
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/farmers-believe-in-climate-change-so-why-dont-the-politicans-who-say-they-represent-them-20161130-gt1d9o.html
The CEO of Levi (jeans) shows leadership and implores customers to leave their guns at home. To me the open carry situation in several US states is just so difficult to comprehend.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/levis-ceo-asks-shoppers-to-leave-their-guns-at-home-20161201-gt1ifg.html
More on the city vs regions societal division in NSW that no doubt is mirrored in other states.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/sydney-v-the-regions-our-twospeed-state-20161201-gt1h4o.html
Australians are living in fear of falling into an economic void and our government is acting to this obliviously.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/insecurity-is-the-new-economic-truth-20161129-gszv7z.html
Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner
David Rowe takes us fruit picking with reference to Barnaby’s “plums”.
Cathy Wilcox on the Greens’ backpacker tax dealings.
Cathy couldn’t resist this opporunity!
Warren Brown on the ABCC bill’s passage.
David Pope really puts our security into perspective.
Ron Tandberg with Queenslanders’ wakeup call on climate change.
Alan Moir explains Trump’s “disengagement” from his businesses.
Mark Knight’s view of the backpacker tax negotiations.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/5131a7df1bc81dd02b1f67b4e61756fc?width=1024
Bill Leak, in line with The Australian’s editorial approach, goes after Turnbull’s horse trading.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/2d107a19d014dc1517d07d64354a1035?width=650
Shorten interview on 7.30
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2016/s4585559.htm
mikehilliard @ #1795 Thursday, December 1, 2016 at 11:15 pm
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He was – but barnaby’s statement this week about Big George being a future Cabinet Minister now has more meaning, ie toe the line if you want promotion ?
He said this last Friday –
Morning all.
Thanks BK for today’s reading and viewing. What a fantastic spray by John Hewson! Absolutely spot on about the Turnbull govt having no policy agenda.
Greens were advocating for ZERO ‘backpacker tax’ ..did a dirty backroom deal in the dead of night with their sworn enemy ..and settled for 15% + 30 pieces of silver..
..colour me surprised!!
PS:
Backpacker then:
“Zero tax in Australia, 10.5% tax in New Zealand ..where shall I go?..”
Backpacker now:
“15% tax in Australia, 10.5% tax in New Zealand ..where shall I go?..
Malcolm Turnbull survives 2016, just
HE TURNED up in triumph, but today Malcolm Turnbull has only survival to celebrate after his first full parliamentary year as Prime Minister.
And even that was a close run thing, right up until final business last night.
The forced and feeble conviviality among natural political enemies of the night highlighted how close Malcolm Turnbull came to a catastrophic year’s end.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/malcolm-turnbull-survives-2016-just/news-story/c3390499d3521d9e76c65f9939c737af
A Badly Wounded Government Limps To The Long Summer Break
Malcolm Turnbull will be grateful for the summer, but early indications suggest it might mirror the horrendous year he’s just endured. Ben Eltham weighs in.
For the government, 2016 has been a story of missed opportunities, political bungles and dangerous ideological division.
There’s no getting around it: 2016 has been a horrible year for Prime Minster Malcolm Turnbull. He began 2016 politically ascendant, as the most popular prime minister since Kevin Rudd in 2008. He ends it as the battle-scarred survivor of a near-death political experience. The Coalition is well behind in the polls. Turnbull’s approval ratings have slid to even-stevens. And the Liberal Party he leads remains bitterly divided.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/12/02/a-badly-wounded-government-limps-to-the-long-summer-break/
I don’t feel envy, I just feel sick.
I linked interview of Leigh Sales interview with Bill Shorten. Amazed she did not interrupt him a zillion times! Anyhow Shorten doesn’t think Turnbull will make it to the next election
Maybe Richard should have a word in the ear of his new best friend.
Dave
Yep. Christensen does self interest really well
Good Morning.
Much as some don’t like it the Greens deal has made progress for them with farmers.
Note I am one that does not like it. However I think the Greens last minute decision was the correct one from the farmers point of view. It’s a deal that does not hurt Labor. It does hurt the government big time. Especially the Nationals.
The farmers got the message. The LNP was willing to impose a punishing tax on them. A true elite decision and farmers and country people generally know it. Collateral damage was to the National Farmers Federaion
So, George Christenson has traded his vote for a Banking & Financial Services Royal Commission for a vague promise of a cabinet position some time in the future ..maybe ..probably not ..but you never know..
..a true blue National is our George ..self interest trumps national interest every time..
Victoria..
..snap 🙂
markjs @ #14 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 8:28 am
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Without the balance of power they are irrelevant and they were getting sick of seeing others get the attention.
Thanks for the link to Shorten’s interview Victoria. Agree that it’s incredible Sales doesn’t continually talk over the top of him like she’s prone to do.
confessions Friday, December 2, 2016 at 8:55 am
Thanks for the link to Shorten’s interview Victoria. Agree that it’s incredible Sales doesn’t continually talk over the top of him like she’s prone to do.
**************************************************
Adrian has got to her at last !
I think the Greens last minute deal was for exactly the reasons they stated primarily. That is helping farmers avoid a 32% tax. I think the government is stupid enough to impose that just to say again blame Labor
victoria @ #20 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 8:43 am
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Vic – It will be interesting to see if he plays nice next year etc.
I note that Crikey have kinda stolen BK’s dawn patrol idea with its morning Worm … I hope they’re paying royalties!
phoenixred @ #26 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 8:57 am
Speech —-Speech.
It’s a bit of a wake in the AFR and the Oz today. They thought they would be crowing about Malcolm’s big win. Now it’s just whining about Labor playing politics. The OZ main story is about the CMFEU winding up strike action BECAUSE of the ABCC Bill. Genius.
‘confessions Friday, December 2, 2016 at 8:55 am
Thanks for the link to Shorten’s interview Victoria. Agree that it’s incredible Sales doesn’t continually talk over the top of him like she’s prone to do.
**************************************************
Adrian has got to her at last !’
Ha, yes I called her and said, Leigh I said, enough is enough, give Bill a fair go or I’ll write another letter of complaint to the ABC.
Actually did catch up with the interview, and it was amazingly benign in comparison to previous efforts. Was disappointed that Shorten didn’t mention climate change in any of his priorities etc.
Dave..
In March, Di Natale said this: “We won’t do anything to support this Liberal party..” yesterday he did just that, and for what?
Short-term political advantage and the opportunity to once again pull the rug from under the ALP strategy which would have delivered a 13% backpacker tax and which would have helped farmers/orchardists more than the 15%..
Labor is playing the long game to rid this country of arguably the worst Govt we’ve ever had ..and one that is standing in the way of everything the Greens profess to hold dear..
The Greens are irrelevant ultimately as they will never hold power ..so in order to gain attention & sool some more gullible voters away from Labor, they deal with the enemy. Disgusting politics from one of the most cynical politicians in Australia..
guytaur @ #21 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 8:44 am
Fully agree. Labor misses out on a political victory, but that is not the end of the world for it or the nation. This circus should never have happened and would not have if the Coalition did what governments are supposed to do, which is to fully research its policy decisions wherever it is able to do so. And Labor did win big in one sense – the government missed out on a whole lot of union bashing that it wanted to do on the back of the ABCC ‘victory’.
LOL. Somebody needed to. Her interviews these days are unwatchable for the constant interruptions.
OK..
We’ve seen the Greens pull their friends out of the self created political mire..
Maybe their newest bestie Di Natale can help them with this somewhat more difficult problem:
Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk
“Private sector business investment:
– Abbott/Turnbull Coalition govt: -33.7%
– Rudd/Gillard Labor govt: +67.7%
Better economic manager?”
Come the day come the comment…some local radio jock last night claims (whinges) that Bill Shorten is now starting to sound like Tony Abbott. His perception is that Shorten is now saying “No!” to everything. Strangely, when Abbott was in opposition, I did not hear one peep from this guy about Abbott constant negativity. And, while on the the issue of double standards, what was all that about “We will do no deals with minor parties” crap which has been a constant theme from the LNP for ages? Just wait until the WA elections, and, if things are close, to see just how comfortable the likes of the Nationals can be in bed with either Liberal or Labor. The Greens may not know which way is up when it comes to governance, but they are not in the same street as the Nationals when it comes to political harlotry.
TPOF
The Greens win for reaching out and helping farmers get something rather than nothing.
Labor wins for having the right policy.
That’s a win for Labor and the Greens with the supposed base of the LNP.
It adds to the whole incompetent worse government ever that Labor and Greens have been running about the economy and the Greens have hammered this point home to those that think the LNP are better economic managers.
This is how bad the damage this has inflicted on the LNP. Now the LNP base is ready to listen on how bad the LNP are in economic management
Both Rummell and DWH have made this inclusion about this government already. They have been ahead of the curve and now many more LNP supporters are catching up
@ Markjs Labor tried for a 10.5% rate, and then fell back to a 13% rate as a compromise.
The Greens successfully got the government to agree to a 12.1% rate.
In what sense are farmers better off with a 13% tax rate than a 12.1% one?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3991838/Fawlty-Towers-star-Andrew-Sachs-dies-86-Widow-pays-emotional-farewell-reveals-secret-four-year-battle-dementia-died-caring-him.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK
markjs @ #14 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 8:28 am
That entirely misses the point.
What if pay rates are 20% higher in Australia?
What is the calculation then?
It is the amount the backpacker ends up with that is relevant to them, not how it is arrived at.
But what if they want to see the sights of Australia? They simply can’t see them in NZ.
“What would not allowing people on that grassy hill do? Putting someone on the side of a grassy hill is not going to give you any additional capability to attack someone.”
I’m of the opinion that fencing off parliament house is more about keeping protestors away rather than providing any real protection from a terrorist act. Government’s love to keep the proles at arms length.
Is the PM going to announce a cabinet adjustment aka reshuffle today as per earlier reports this week indicated?
The only possible thing I can think of is explosives. A fence with a screening gate would fix that. Blocking the architects inent that the Hawke Keating government agreed with of keeping politicians in their place tells me you are exactly right about using the protests as an excuse
Sorry my last post was directed to Mike Hilliard.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pauline-hanson-angry-at-rod-culleton-over-backpacker-tax-vote-20161201-gt28nr.html
Jesus, Pauline thinks her negotiating position was 13 rather than 15 per cent. Ahhh, no, Pauline. What an idiot
Methinks some people in government have been taking ‘Designated Survivor’ too seriously.
Speaking of, I was curious. Does Australia have a system in place for what would happen in that situation? Is our ultimate fallback the British line of succession – British monarch can appoint a GG, GG can call for an election.
Joyce presser now
Guytaur
The concrete roof of PH would be fairly substantial to support the soil which is probably 30cm deep, maybe more. You’d need a big explosion to get through that and most of the explosive force would go up not down. Bombs work best inside buildings form what I know.