BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Labor retains its solid lead on the latest reading of the national poll aggregate, although a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland has taken some of the shine off Labor’s position on the seat projection.

The latest reading of BludgerTrack records next to no movement on national voting intention, the only new addition to the dataset being a status quo Essential Research result. However, the Coalition has picked up two in Queensland on the seat projection on the back of a relatively good set of numbers from the Queensland-only Galaxy poll published by the Courier-Mail yesterday. This found the Coalition at 39%, compared with 43.2% at the election; Labor at 30%, compared with 30.9%; the Greens on 8%, compared with 8.8%; and One Nation with 12%, compared with 5.5%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday of the week before last from a sample of 900. No new data on leadership ratings this week.

bt2019-2016-11-16

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

381 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. boerwar @ #245 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 3:57 pm

    BiS
    Directly, true.
    Indirectly, all that dark sea water soaking up the sun instead of all that white ice reflecting it…

    I remember some of the early models proposed some huge rises in sea level until it was pointed out that sea ice would basically contribute nothing if it melted.

    Of course as you point out there are other effects.

  3. Ah I just saw this tweet. Yep. They are Australian citizens. How does Dutton think this helps?

    Rashida Yosufzai
    54m54 minutes ago
    Rashida Yosufzai ‏@Rashidajourno
    Dutton: advice I have received out of the 33 charged with terror related offences, 22 are from second, third gen Lebanese Muslim background

  6. How Malcolm Turnbull went full Trump

    On the day of the US election, as it became obvious that Donald Trump had won, a group of men at Sydney University were filmed cheering and chanting, “Grab them by the pussy, that’s how we do it!”

    University alumnus Malcolm Turnbull wasn’t among them, but given the enthusiasm and pride with which, over the following week, he has paraded his credentials as the president-elect’s new best friend, he may as well have been.

    The election of Trump has unleashed a right wing wave that’s rolling around the world. The far right and neo-Nazi scenes are taking to the streets to celebrate. In this context, we might expect a note of caution on the part of more “mainstream” political leaders. Yet here we are, with our prime minister Turnbull acting like a kid on the beach with their boogie board on the first day of summer-holidays.

    Our very own alt-right freaks – the Pauline Hansons, Cory Bernadis and George Chistensens – can rejoice. In the immortal words of Bob Dylan, “It’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there”.

    https://redflag.org.au/node/5596

  7. What about the kids and grandkids of Italian migrants? Especially the ones linked to the Mafia & who donated to the Liberal Party?

  8. Good afternoon all,

    Interesting QT today.

    The questions to Joyce re the MDB were as much about squeezing Senator X as pushing the Joyce buttons.

    Senator X just waved aside the Joyce statements of previous days after getting a tummy rub from someone in the government thus his ” nothing to see here comments ”

    Today was about getting Joyce to leave in no doubt what he said was government policy and thus leave Senator X with a clear choice to make.

    Continue to support the Turnbull government while it shuts off the Murray water flow to SA or stand up for SA and reject the Turnbull government approach and refuse to back the government.

    X knows on what side his bread is buttered. Who will he support and how will he show that support ? For his credibility it better be SA.

    Good job all round by labor today in QT.

    Cheers.

  9. Qanda

    Tonight’s Panel
    Eric Abetz – Tasmanian Liberal Senator
    Terri Butler – Queensland Labor MP
    Benjamin Law – Screenwriter, author and columnist
    Nakkiah Lui – Playwright, Performer and Commentator
    Greg Sheridan – Foreign Affairs Editor, The Australian

  10. Especially the ones linked to the Mafia & who donated to the Liberal Party?

    They are quite obviously good catholic criminals.

  11. workmanalice: AG George Brandis didn’t know a microphone was on and was caught calling the QLD Liberal Opposition “very very mediocre” #auspol.

    I do think he’s the best judge of that though.

  15. phoenixred @ #213 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 1:10 pm

    Boerwar Monday, November 21, 2016 at 12:48 pm
    ***************************************
    Boerwar – seeing you are around – this may interest you – shipwrecks from the Battle Of The Java Sea missing ….
    The mystery of World War II shipwrecks that have vanished
    None of the ships could be considered small. The USS Perch was 91m long and weighed 1370 tonnes. The Dutch warship HNLMS De Ruyter was 171m long and when full weighed more than 6650 tonnes while Britain’s HMS Exeter was even heavier at a whopping 8520 tonnes.
    http://www.news.com.au/technology/science/the-mystery-of-world-war-ii-shipwrecks-that-have-vanished/news-story/2e13b83a950880a2f4525bc55b1441cf

    I may be a callous type, but so what?

    Classifying such ships as ‘War Graves’ might be OK for a few decades, but by then, there will be no human remains left, not even bones which gradually dissolve.

    Similarly War Cemeteries. Normal cemeteries do not offer graves in perpetuity. They are reused on a scheduled basis.

  16. C@t

    As a child of Italian migrants, the scourge of the Italian mafia sickens me. Interestingly, whenever I mention my contempt for the damage the italian mafia does, my law enforcement friend reminds me that the biggest and most serious challenge they have is with the ethnic group Dutton is paying out on. Without betraying confidences, we apparently have had some luck go our way to date re acts of terrorism. What little information i have been privy to is utterly sobering

  20. barney in saigon @ #466 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 3:52 pm

    Fortunately it has virtually no impact on sea levels.

    It takes 333.55 kJ of heat to melt each kg of ice. This (and various other latent heat effects) are the only thing keeping the planet from being uninhabitable already.

    Sadly, this is a temporary situation. When the arctic becomes ice-free (expected to happen this year or perhaps next year) this heat energy will have to go somewhere else.

  21. hi BK,
    This is a late response, but I am happy to do the cartoons. They may be a bit late this Wed, because of an early work start, but hopefully more timely on the other days.

    Have a great time!

  22. Indirectly, all that dark sea water soaking up the sun instead of all that white ice reflecting it

    I’m more concerned about water’s large heat of fusion value.

    Polar ice basically acts as a massive thermal buffer against warming. It can soak up a ton of thermal energy without actually increasing in temperature. However as more of it melts, the buffer gets smaller and (roughly) the same amount of thermal energy gets spread out across a smaller amount of ice each year. And then it cannot turn back to ice until all that energy it absorbed is released back into the atmosphere. So as more ice melts our buffer against warming actually becomes a buffer against cooling.

    Meaning that I’d expect the rate of loss to increase as time goes one. And also that if/when we reach a point where the ice actually disappears, global temperatures will jump considerably and quickly. With a further complication being that event if we were to immediately stop human contribution to global warming it would still be many years until any cooling (or even, stabalization) happens.

    I’m unsure if or how well climate models account for the actual physics around melting and freezing water, and how it impacts upon temperature rise/fall. Does anybody know? The fact that early models thought melting ice that was already floating in the ocean would contribute to sea-level rise doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence.

  23. Michael Mazengarb ‏@MichaelM_ACT · 8m8 minutes ago

    It’s 2016 and literally right now the Parliament of Australia is debating the science of climate change… sigh.

  24. AR
    Global ice mass accounts are fairly well understood, I believe.
    I would be surprised if they are not well-embedded in the models…
    …except, perhaps, for permafrost ice…

  25. player one @ #270 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 4:53 pm

    barney in saigon @ #466 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 3:52 pm

    Fortunately it has virtually no impact on sea levels.

    It takes 333.55 kJ of heat to melt each kg of ice. This (and various other latent heat effects) are the only thing keeping the planet from being uninhabitable already.
    Sadly, this is a temporary situation. When the arctic becomes ice-free (expected to happen this year or perhaps next year) this heat energy will have to go somewhere else.

    Good point.
    I have wondered whether this release of energy, which can now go into heating, is part of the temperature spike we are seeing now as the northern ice sheet diminishes.
    I have not heard it spoken of.

  26. A R

    I’m unsure if or how well climate models account for the actual physics around melting and freezing water, and how it impacts upon temperature rise/fall. Does anybody know?

    They do take that into account. Of more concern is the methane in the tundra currently held under the arctic ice. When the ice melts the methane is released. This could be enough to raise the temperature 0.6 degrees in just 5 years – http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html

    Once the arctic is ice free – which might happen this year for the first time in 100,000 years, things could start to accelerate quite quickly.

  27. Barney in Saigon

    I have wondered whether this release of energy, which can now go into heating, is part of the temperature spike we are seeing now as the northern ice sheet diminishes.
    I have not heard it spoken of.

    The current situation in the arctic was completely unexpected. However, there is a slight possibility it is an error in the satellite measurements. I think that’s why scientists are being ultra cautious. But if it is not an error, it is a catastrophe.

  28. Roberts could bore for the Olympics.

    Mark Di Stefano Verified account 
    ‏@MarkDiStef
    Roberts has started the senate’s one-hour global warming debate by running through Donald Trump’s history of climate denialism.

    The second person to speak is Nationals senator John Williams, starts by talking about producing cement.

    Is this a gerrymander, or are they all crazy? Don’t answer that.

  33. p1
    I am hoping the satellites have gone bung because this year’s sea-ice extent is virtually counter-intuitive: three standard deviations from the norm and ice melting in November…
    If the instruments are actually measuring what is really happening then the current situation is fairly ordinary.

  38. boerwar @ #558 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 5:30 pm

    p1
    I am hoping the satellites have gone bung because this year’s sea-ice extent is virtually counter-intuitive: three standard deviations from the norm and ice melting in November…
    If the instruments are actually measuring what is really happening then the current situation is fairly ordinary.

    Check out this graph. As near as I can tell, the latest dramatic decline in sea ice extent occurred on the very day of Trump’s election victory. How did it know? …

  41. Good point:

    Downtown Josh Brown ‏@ReformedBroker 14h14 hours ago
    If Trump were trying to talk to the people, he’d use Facebook. But it’s really the press he wants to rile. And the press lives on Twitter.

  42. Lizze

    It’s interesting. Will there be a L – N split? I would think the GC and Darling Downs members could be worried about the PHON intrusion. Central and North Queensland, not so much.

  44. Godwin’s law alert: I can easily imagine Peter Dutton in a Nazi uniform.

    I caught a bit of Question Time this afternoon. What’s Scott Morrison on? He comes across as totally unhinged.

    And why do Coalition MPs talk able Labor and Bill Shorten all the time, whether in Opposition now or in Government over three years ago? Don’t they have any actual achievements of their own to talk about? Rhetorical question.

  45. It’s not only what Culleton says …

    Video of him speaking outside the High Court today shows that he was accompanied by what looks like a bodyguard.

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