BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Labor retains its solid lead on the latest reading of the national poll aggregate, although a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland has taken some of the shine off Labor’s position on the seat projection.

The latest reading of BludgerTrack records next to no movement on national voting intention, the only new addition to the dataset being a status quo Essential Research result. However, the Coalition has picked up two in Queensland on the seat projection on the back of a relatively good set of numbers from the Queensland-only Galaxy poll published by the Courier-Mail yesterday. This found the Coalition at 39%, compared with 43.2% at the election; Labor at 30%, compared with 30.9%; the Greens on 8%, compared with 8.8%; and One Nation with 12%, compared with 5.5%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday of the week before last from a sample of 900. No new data on leadership ratings this week.

bt2019-2016-11-16

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

381 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. puff, the magic dragon. @ #363 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 2:53 pm

    Aha,
    Murray Darling Basin Plan… The LNP will be hated in SA if they tamper with that. We put in a desal plant because the buggers up the MDB regard the water system as a personal water spring.
    I see fruit trees in Vic orchards watered with overhead sprinklers ffs. SA stopped doing tgat yonks ago. Have they not head of drip irrigation?

    My first trip to Mildura about 10 or so years ago I saw that and just shook my head in disbelief. It was a hot day and you could just see the water evaporate. Same with a public park being watered the same way.
    They should immediately change to watering at night until they install the necessary infrastructure for drip irrigation.

  2. Trump says he plans to continue to personally own the Trump Organisation, a multibillion-dollar company with business interests around the world, but three of his adult children will operate the firm while he’s in office. This is a colossal mistake. It will produce conflicts of interest of an unprecedented magnitude, and create the appearance that he and his family are using his office to enrich themselves, even if they don’t take advantage of the many opportunities to do so that this situation presents. These conflicts will stain and haunt Trump’s presidency, unless he changes course.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/how-president-trump-could-use-the-white-house-to-enrich-himself-and-his-family-20161120-gstpc2.html

  5. A large grassfire has broken out in Victoria’s north-west, leaving a fire truck destroyed after its crew escaped unharmed.

    The fire covers 500 hectares at Parson Road, near Swan Hill. A watch-and-act alert has been issued for residents in Swan Hill, Castle Donnington, Goschen, Kunat and Lake Boga.

    Paramedics have treated two women for smoke inhalation. They have been taken to Swan Hill District Health in a stable condition.

    Thirty-three trucks and eight aircraft are battling the grassfire. The blaze has been contained, but is not yet under control.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/fire-crews-battle-large-grassfire-near-swan-hill-20161121-gsu1uw.html

  6. libertarian unionist @ #456 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 3:34 pm

    I think Dutton just said that his opinion is that Lebanese Muslims should not have been allowed to enter the country some decades ago, because some of their grandkids became criminals?

    There is a kernel of truth to this. Australia managed, by not managing our intake of migrants from Lebanon during the civil war, to pick up the dregs of society. To be precise: what I am saying is that some of the migrants from Lebanon during this period were not nice people. They were often already ostracised from their own communities before moving here, due to their behaviour and questionable activities, and it is no surprise they continued them here.
    That they happened to be Lebanese and muslim is beside the point. The many Lebanese people and Australians of Lebanese heritage that I know are typically either ashamed or exasperated or both by this very small minority sullying their country’s name.
    However, that Dutton is using this as a political football says a lot about him – his generalisations are nothing short of racial slurs – but none of this is of any surprise to us here on PB.

    That aligns with my knowledge of the subject.
    Standards at the time were dropped so we simply don’t know who we admitted at the time. It included crime families.

  8. libertarian unionist @ #468 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 3:55 pm

    But didn’t seem like Dutton’s point.

    No doubt it wasn’t. But he’s tapping into a kernel of truth, and one that is openly spoken about in the Lebanese community itself.

    It is a big challenge, but we dont need the likes of Dutton to politicise it. Disgraceful conduct by him.

    I completely agree with you.

    Indeed. It was an immigration issue back in the 70s, it is no longer that and Dutton should STFU.
    It is a police matter now, not a political matter.

  9. victoria @ #509 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 4:20 pm

    Qanda
    Tonight’s Panel
    Eric Abetz – Tasmanian Liberal Senator
    Terri Butler – Queensland Labor MP
    Benjamin Law – Screenwriter, author and columnist
    Nakkiah Lui – Playwright, Performer and Commentator
    Greg Sheridan – Foreign Affairs Editor, The Australian

    Terri Butler v 2 droogs. Don’t know about the others.
    Not a fair fight. Terri will slay them.

  14. BC – Thanks. There is a very simple test. If a litigant mentions the Magna Carta, they’re bonkers. I did a global search. Got a hit.

  15. Chris Bowen giving a speech tomorrow night at The Chifley Research Centre on:
    ‘The Case for Opportunity’. If anyone in Canberra would like to go along.

  23. C@t – just read the Culleton submission … this man is literally insane … as well as being uneducated and illiterate. And he made it into the parlt???

    FMD we REALLY need some kind of screening process.

  26. player one @ #551 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 5:13 pm

    A R

    I’m unsure if or how well climate models account for the actual physics around melting and freezing water, and how it impacts upon temperature rise/fall. Does anybody know?

    They do take that into account. Of more concern is the methane in the tundra currently held under the arctic ice. When the ice melts the methane is released. This could be enough to raise the temperature 0.6 degrees in just 5 years – http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html
    Once the arctic is ice free – which might happen this year for the first time in 100,000 years, things could start to accelerate quite quickly.

    Surely you mean next calendar year?

    It is now the end of the third week of November, and certainly the ice is at an unprecedented low, and it has been still melting recently (in November! FMD!) but there is unlikely to be significant melting between now and the new year.

  29. lizzie @ #602 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 6:42 pm

    Trump says he plans to continue to personally own the Trump Organisation, a multibillion-dollar company with business interests around the world, but three of his adult children will operate the firm while he’s in office. This is a colossal mistake. It will produce conflicts of interest of an unprecedented magnitude, and create the appearance that he and his family are using his office to enrich themselves, even if they don’t take advantage of the many opportunities to do so that this situation presents. These conflicts will stain and haunt Trump’s presidency, unless he changes course.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/how-president-trump-could-use-the-white-house-to-enrich-himself-and-his-family-20161120-gstpc2.html

    Trump’s presidency is already heading to hell in a handbasket. This is just one more thing to add to the pile of things that are so very wrong with Trump as president.

    He can’t do the job, that is apparent to everyone. He will be dependent on advisers to write his speeches and dictate his every move. The problem is that he doesn’t see this as a problem.

    Sometimes, democracy throws up very strange leaders, from Billy McMahon to Tony Abbott to George W. Bush to Trump.

    We just have to wait it out, I guess, as we did with those others.

  30. Suspect Teri Butler and Abetz/Sheridan will be mainly talking past each other t onight.

    They inhabit totally different worlds – Teri in the real world and the other two in some esoteric right wing construct.

  35. Good grief just heard on the news driving home that Cullerton wants a jury for his High Court appeal. Methinks if he had any sense at all he’d at least get someone else to represent him.

  38. Senator David Leyonhjelm showed yet again today what an absolute fruit cake he is. Interviewed by Ross Greenwood on 3aw he said there were two things he promised never to vote for when he came into parliament. He would never vote for an increase in taxes and he would never vote for any bill that reduces the liberty of individuals.

    He then went on to say that he was concerned about certain parts of the ABCCC legislation that he feels do in fact impinge on people’s liberty, such as denying them the right to silence and having proper legal representation. But when Greenwood asked if that meant he would be voting against it he said if the government insisted on leaving those parts in he would seek a quid pro quo elsewhere. Asked what this meant, he said he would insist on more liberty being added to another piece of legislation to make up for the liberty removed by the ABCCC legislation.

    As I said the man is a fruit cake.

  41. player one @ #656 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 8:23 pm

    Don

    Surely you mean next calendar year?

    That article was published in June, so yes, they did mean this calendar year or the next. But even so, I don’t think they really expected this …

    https://sunshinehours.net/category/antarctic-sea-ice/

    I took this:

    Once the arctic is ice free – which might happen this year for the first time in 100,000 years, things could start to accelerate quite quickly.

    to be your comment, not that of the article.

    That staggering graph is what I was using as a reference.

    And yes, it is not something that you would think could have been expected. It is almost on the level of bad data, where you go over everything and check that nobody multiplied by a negative number instead of a positive number.

    If true, the arctic ocean could be totally ice free next NH summer. The north west passage is already a reality, if you take along an icebreaker, and they have cruise ships doing the route now.

    With vodka and caviar as you watch the broken floes drift by…..

    I would love to have Nansen’s comments if he could have seen what was to come from the deck of the Fram.

  42. Haha such pathetnicess of the LNP’s a tax on work clothes.
    Unions should rise up over this.

    Next they will tax the normal clothes you buy.

  45. The government must have the numbers to pass the Registered Organisations bill. Brandis has moved a suspension to have the debate tonight. That debate is on now, and I imagine it will pass, and later the legislation will be rushed through. Di Natale is now complaining that the debate on the bill is likely to go past midnight, even though the sitting has two weeks to run.

    Prior to that David Leyonhjelm’s motion to disallow the continuation of the Adler shotgun ban failed, 7 – 45. The Libs voted with Labor and the Greens against it, but the Nats voted for it. The Nationals’ ministers were strangely nowhere to be seen.

  46. cONFESSIONS

    you really have to wonder what we’re paying these people for.

    The Ginas and Koch Brothers of the world know exactly why they are “paying these people” . They are getting great value for money.

  47. “That debate is on now”
    I mean on the suspension, not the bill.

    Apparently Labor was completely blindsided by this, unaware it was happening until Brandis got to his feet. Now everyone is scrambling to get their amendments ready,

  48. Honouring Mary Holman, the first Australian Labor Party female Member of Parliament
    “In 1937, in evidence to the royal commission on youth employment, she described her work as convener of a party committee dealing with youth employment problems. She supported raising the school leaving age to 16, child endowment, equal pay for men and women, and improving training and working conditions of female domestic servants. In 1938, at her instigation, a royal commission to inquire into sanitation, slum clearance and health and housing regulations in Perth was set up; Holman was a member. She also attended the British Commonwealth Relations Conference in New South Wales.”

    http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/holman-mary-alice-may-6711

  50. Am hearing on good authority that Senator Roberts is inflexible, set in his beliefs, stubborn, won’t be swayed by any empirical evidence, cogent argumentbnor appeal to precautionary principle.

    Shocked? Yes, slightly. But this is what we are dealing with.

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