BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Labor retains its solid lead on the latest reading of the national poll aggregate, although a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland has taken some of the shine off Labor’s position on the seat projection.

The latest reading of BludgerTrack records next to no movement on national voting intention, the only new addition to the dataset being a status quo Essential Research result. However, the Coalition has picked up two in Queensland on the seat projection on the back of a relatively good set of numbers from the Queensland-only Galaxy poll published by the Courier-Mail yesterday. This found the Coalition at 39%, compared with 43.2% at the election; Labor at 30%, compared with 30.9%; the Greens on 8%, compared with 8.8%; and One Nation with 12%, compared with 5.5%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday of the week before last from a sample of 900. No new data on leadership ratings this week.

bt2019-2016-11-16

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

381 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 8
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  1. Morning all. Unsurprising that the polls are strady, with more of the same from Tony Turnbull, or is it Malcolm Abbott? Its the same either way.

    A great article here from the Grattan institute about the real age of entitlement – it starts at 55. Older Australians get more generous tax breaks whether they are rich or poor. The losers are the young, who cannot afford to buy homes. That needs to stop, both for the sake of fairness, and to get our economy moving.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/end-the-age-of-entitlement-cut-tax-perks-for-seniors-says-grattan-institute-20161119-gst8o1.html

  2. Political pundits are worried about what a generation of (selfish and unskilled) angry old men might do to them at the ballot box. But Australia is not the USA. Old men here have been treated (too) generously by government, as the Grattan report shows. Let us hope, for justice’s sake, a generation of angry young people will punish our ruling class at the ballot instead.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/seniors-get-unfair-tax-breaks-worth-a-free-smashed-avo-every-weekend-20161118-gssjqi.html

  3. Morning Bludgers!
    I don’t get how the Coalition at 39%, compared with 43.2% at the election; Labor at 30%, compared with 30.9%; the Greens on 8%, compared with 8.8%; and One Nation with 12%, compared with 5.5%. jives with However, the Coalition has picked up two in Queensland on the seat projection on the back of a relatively good set of numbers from the Queensland-only Galaxy poll published by the Courier-Mail yesterday.

    The Coalition’s vote has gone backwards!

    Or is the, erroneous, assumption being made that the Angry Old Man PHON vote is for the Coalition’s taking after preferences?

    Please explain!?! : )

  5. At least Trump has created one new job. Alec Baldwin has a job for four years impersonating him.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/tv-comedy/alec-baldwin-returns-as-a-very-nervous-donald-trump-on-saturday-night-live-20161120-gsth4q.html

    Catmomma
    I agree. If the grumpy old man vote goes to Hanson, then splits on preferences, surely the Liberals must be worse off. While we normally assume preference flows match the past, this changed dynamic is precisely when we should not assume that, lest we repeat the erroneous forecasts of US polls.

    Have a good day all.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    NOTE: There will be no Dawn Patrol from Wednesday 23rd to Monday 28th November inclusive due to family commitments in Canberra for Mr and Mrs BK.

    The AFR says that the government is bracing itself for another significant deterioration in the budget position ahead of MYEFO that the commodities price rises won’t fix. Google.
    /news/policy/budget/looming-budget-crunch-boosts-need-for-tax-relief-says-morrison-20161120-gsta24
    So does Peter Martin.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/24-billion-budget-blowout-myefo-to-confirm-the-worst-on-december-19-20161120-gstd7i.html
    Peter Martin on the Grattan Institute’s proposal to rip seniors’ tax and other perks.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/end-the-age-of-entitlement-cut-tax-perks-for-seniors-says-grattan-institute-20161119-gst8o1.html
    Ross Gittins writes that politicians go populist at their peril. He says they should take Michelle Obama’s comment to heart.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/our-politicians-go-populist-at-their-peril-20161120-gstale.html
    Michelle Grattan on the Delloite report saying the Trump economic impact will be smaller than predicted – but still bad.
    https://theconversation.com/trumps-economic-impact-slower-smaller-than-predicted-but-still-bad-deloitte-69117
    Here’s this week’s contribution from Urban Wronski.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2016/11/20/turnbull-needs-to-dump-trump-bring-home-our-refugees/
    A nice piece from Dave Donovan on “A bolt of Dutton – Fake news and Section 18c”.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-bolt-of-dutton-fake-news-and-section-18c,9751
    Craig Emerson implores the government to revisit the MRRT to ensure that the country derives appropriate revenue for our and gas extraction.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/former-minister-craig-emerson-urges-inquiry-into-lng-tax-revenue-hole-20161117-gsrd90.html
    Turnbull has thrown the dice and put the ABCC bill on the Senate list for this week.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-locked-in-intense-negotiations-on-union-bills-as-clock-ticks-20161120-gstbjg.html
    The government is about to “condense” the list of occupations to which 457 visas might apply.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/457-occupation-list-to-be-condensed-says-immigration-minister-peter-dutton-20161120-gst9wg.html

  7. socrates @ #2 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 6:47 am

    Political pundits are worried about what a generation of (selfish and unskilled) angry old men might do to them at the ballot box. But Australia is not the USA. Old men here have been treated (too) generously by government, as the Grattan report shows. Let us hope, for justice’s sake, a generation of angry young people will punish our ruling class at the ballot instead.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/seniors-get-unfair-tax-breaks-worth-a-free-smashed-avo-every-weekend-20161118-gssjqi.html

    It should not be forgotten that those young people often have parents, uncles and aunts in the ranks of those getting, or soon to get, those tax and super breaks.

    In addition, the young people may also consider that they won’t mind getting those financial breaks when they themselves are approaching retirement age.

  8. Section 2 . . .

    The effect of public transport limitations on unemployment.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/limited-transport-is-a-big-barrier-to-young-people-getting-jobs-20161120-gstdx7.html
    Amanda Vanstone tells us that any fool can get elected but it’s what happens next that matters.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/any-fool-can-get-elected-its-what-happens-next-that-counts-20161119-gst2pk.html
    Can anything be done about the nepotism that is so evident in the Trump transition?
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/20/donald-trump-nepotism-ivanka-jared-kushner-is-it-legal
    I wonder what the Auditor-General will dig up on the very generous grant sent Bob Day’s way.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/education-department-forced-to-hand-over-documents-on-bob-day-grant-controversy-20161119-gsszx9.html
    According to Dutton it’s always everyone’s fault except white Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/its-always-everyones-fault-except-white-australia-20161118-gssu86.html
    Angela Merkel says she’s going to contest the election for a fourth term.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/20/angela-merkel-expected-stand-for-re-election-germany
    If you thought the Trump victory was bad have a look at this!
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/marine-le-pen-poll-election-odds-latest-french-presidential-lead-sarkozy-a7428126.html
    Left to the media the slide into fascism will simply be another news story.
    https://theconversation.com/after-objectivity-69114
    Food and drink prices for the Adelaide Oval Test have skyrocketed to ridiculous levels. Google.
    /news/south-australia/big-jump-in-food-drink-prices-at-adelaide-oval-for-the-third-test-between-australia-and-south-africa/news-story/49545f40d881e575b232df2287ff45a6
    Is Trump the wake-up call the world needs on climate change?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/trump-the-wakeup-call-on-climate-we-needed-20161117-gsrdqh.html
    Tim Dick says that the world’s jerks are rising to the top.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-worlds-jerks-are-rising-to-the-top-20161118-gssrbb.html

  9. Melania and Barron Trump won’t be moving to the White House

    Future First Lady Melania Trump and son Barron will not be moving to the White House after Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, The Post has learned.

    The president-elect’s 46-year-old wife and their 10-year-old son are staying put at the family’s glitzy Trump Tower penthouse so that Barron can continue attending his Upper West Side private school, sources told The Post.

    Another source said Melania Trump will travel to the White House as needed, but that her primary focus is on Barron.

    http://nypost.com/2016/11/20/melania-and-barron-trump-wont-be-moving-to-the-white-house/

  10. Section 3 . . .

    Adele Ferguson on how car dealers are anxiously awaiting on the outcome of the ACCC ruling on commissions for questionable add-ons.
    http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/financial-services/car-dealers-claim-addon-insurance-limits-could-force-them-to-close-20161119-gst9o2
    Aldi’s German rival is expressing interest in the Australian retail market.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/aldis-arch-rival-schwarz-group-confirms-oz-interest-20161116-gsqfld.html
    Paul McGeough goes behind the Trump circus and looks at the real victims of Trump’s rise.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/if-trump-wants-to-help-whites-without-jobs-why-must-the-black-and-brown-pay-20161120-gstab2.html
    Michael Gordon on the one issue that has Turnbull and Shorten linking arms – family violence.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pm-and-bill-shorten-to-link-arms-against-family-violence-20161120-gsteqd.html
    Crook teeth can give you more than a toothache.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/dont-see-the-dentist-you-could-be-increasing-risk-of-pneumonia-20161119-gsszqj.html
    Turnbull is banking on Trump changing his mind on trade agreements, the TPP in particular.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-hopeful-donald-trump-will-change-his-mind-on-free-trade-20161119-gst989.html
    Amy Remeikis writes about the UN special rapporteur saying 18c should remain.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/18c-should-be-maintained-un-special-rapporteur-20161118-gssrlp.html
    The ATO’s Project Wickenby has landed a great victory over this wealthy family. Let’s have more. Google.
    /business/legal-affairs/tax-office-record-operation-wickenby-ruling-tops-125m/news-story/a201b3bc8a62418c46c99e9ef83c8d56
    The CBA is cutting deposit interest rates even further.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/savers-hit-as-cba-cuts-term-deposit-rates-20161118-gssq0f.html
    Alex Baldwin goes to town as Trump on Saturday Night Live.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/tv-comedy/alec-baldwin-returns-as-a-very-nervous-donald-trump-on-saturday-night-live-20161120-gsth4q.html

  11. Section 4 . . . with a rather paltry Cartoon Corner

    Stand by for tabloid madness. Schapelle Corby’s on her way back to Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/schapelle-corby-given-return-date-to-australia-20161120-gstb7g.html
    Queensland dentists are biting back over the mindless removal of water fluoridisation by certain councils.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/dentists-lack-bite-in-queensland-fluoride-fight-20161120-gstk5l.html

    David Rowe with garbage night at the Dutton household.

    Mark Knight redefines the Trump wall.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/1f8e09400b0016efc5211a05c311308f?width=1024

  13. Don
    Sorry, but that is just wishful thinking. What about those whose parents do not look after them. As for the argument that the young will get them when they are old, that assumes we will still be able to afford them. We can’t, not when all the boomers are retired. Plainly, like defined benefit super schemes, the rules will be changed before the young of today reach the same age.

  14. Thank you, BK!

    Enjoy your well-earned break! If you like I will post the cartoons again while you are away.

    Lizzie, are you up for posting the articles? : )

  17. I agree with Socrates. My parents are of the opinion that the only time the children get any of their money is after they are dead. They told me explicitly that I have to stand on my own two feet financially with no help from them.

  20. socrates @ #13 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 7:15 am

    Don
    Sorry, but that is just wishful thinking. What about those whose parents do not look after them. As for the argument that the young will get them when they are old, that assumes we will still be able to afford them. We can’t, not when all the boomers are retired. Plainly, like defined benefit super schemes, the rules will be changed before the young of today reach the same age.

    It’s complicated. The baby boomers are often not content with the old age pension, they want more, and many are going out to get it.

    Bernard Salt has a very interesting article about it.

    Google:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/baby-boomers-evolve-into-new-generation-retirement-refuseniks/news-story/58b6b9d4fa19f13ec0551b7f5df7ef6e

    Between the 2006 and 2011 censuses the number of employers/self-employed aged 60-something jumped by 49,000, whereas the number aged 40-something contracted by 11,000. The shift ­towards older entrepreneurs may be explained in part by ageing boomer farmers who lack gen Y children prepared to take over the family farm. But it also fits with a bigger view of an even greater societal change. Today’s 60-somethings are university ­educated and come with big ­expectations of lifestyle. Settling back into “pension life” isn’t as ­attractive a proposition as is setting up shop as an independent consultant or business owner.

    Better still, retire to a lifestyle area such as the Byron Bay hinterland and do something you’ve ­always wanted to do: set up a photography business or a Pilates/yoga studio or, indeed, continue on as an independent consultant from a lifestyle idyll.

    The enabling forces behind this older entrepreneur shift are the baby boom bubble pushing ­beyond 60 as well as certain technology and software developments. Running a consulting business from suburbia or from Mullumbimby requires not just mobile coverage but high-speed broadband access as well as user-friendly accounting software such as Xero and universal storage ­capacity in, say, the cloud.

    Strong population growth will always underpin some growth in the household formation stage of the life cycle in Australia. But targeted cohort growth of the scale that is tipping educated, aspirational, digitally connected baby boomers into their 60s is a game changer for those focused on ­snaring new business oppor­tunities. The property industry is well-practised in building houses for 40-somethings but this is not where today’s growth markets are focused.

    Boomers aged 60-something are reimagining how this decade may be lived and thus far it seems that they imagine a continuation of work and, for some, further work in a self-employed mode. In this world the home ­office becomes important. Digital connectivity becomes important. Technical and logistic support must be accessible.

    There is no office because the office is mobile: it is home, it is a cafe, it is the client’s office, it is an airport lounge — almost everything is done online via a smartphone. The image of a 60-something then begins to shift in the 2020s from daggy retiree to gadabout entrepreneur finally free of kids and mortgage.

    I can foresee the formation of a new 60s tribe to rival the cultural impact of this decade’s 20-something hipsters. I can foresee loose fashionable clothing, uber-cool meeting and working places, ­eclectic interest groups, convenient travelling companion hook-ups, start-up discussion groups, baby boomer-gen Y mentor-protege relationships, as well as the promulgation of a much-needed entrepreneurial culture.

    What’s not to be excited about as the boomer generation shifts into their 60s and changes the way retirement, work and small business are imagined?

  22. Thanks BK
    RE: Donald Trump is the wake-up call on climate change we needed.
    Exactly.
    The policy settings by both Coalition and Labor are grossly inadequate to meet the required targets. 0% net emissions will be met at some point – probably around 2030 – solely due to economics and technology, but the whole thing needs a big kick along and a lot more activism.

  25. Socrates
    Monday, November 21, 2016 at 6:47 am
    Political pundits are worried about what a generation of (selfish and unskilled) angry old men might do to them at the ballot box. But Australia is not the USA. Old men here have been treated (too) generously by government, as the Grattan report shows.

    The article you have linked does not talk about “old men”, let alone “selfish and unskilled angry old men”. It refers to “pensioners” and “pensioner couples”, which last time I looked are mostly made up of old men AND old women.

    Which leads me to wonder why you would feel it’s ok to pay out on the old men while giving the other half of the equation (actually more than half given that men die earlier than women) a free pass. To me, it has a strong whiff of sexism about it.

    I always enjoy reading your well thought out comments but this one just seemed to be a little lop sided in its analysis.

  27. :large

    Global sea ice extent extremely low. Mimimum records seen both in the Arctic and Antarctica. Red line nov.18 show someting is very wrong.

  28. 7 News Queensland Verified account 
    ‏@7NewsQueensland
    Brisbane mother discovers muesli bar after 25 years in jacket pocket. #7News

  29. What possessed the NT govt to sell the Darwin port………..

    Since successfully seeking political asylum in Australia, Mr Chen said he had become growingly concerned about Beijing’s influence in his new home.

    He believes that of particular concern is last year’s decision to approve a 99-year lease of the Port of Darwin to Chinese-owned company Landbridge.

    “I think it’s very stupid. It’s common sense that Darwin Port is strategically important and against the northern invasion,” he said.

  31. C@Tmomma
    Monday, November 21, 2016 at 6:54 am
    Morning Bludgers!
    I don’t get how the Coalition at 39%, compared with 43.2% at the election; Labor at 30%, compared with 30.9%; the Greens on 8%, compared with 8.8%; and One Nation with 12%, compared with 5.5%. jives with However, the Coalition has picked up two in Queensland on the seat projection on the back of a relatively good set of numbers from the Queensland-only Galaxy poll published by the Courier-Mail yesterday.

    The Coalition’s vote has gone backwards!

    Or is the, erroneous, assumption being made that the Angry Old Man PHON vote is for the Coalition’s taking after preferences?

    Please explain!?! : )

    WB is talking about the effect the Galaxy poll had on Bludgertrack in the past week, not since the election. You can see in the state seat change table Bludgertrack has the L-NP down 3 seats in QLD since the election.

  32. lizzie @ #52 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 7:59 am

    :large” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    Global sea ice extent extremely low. Mimimum records seen both in the Arctic and Antarctica. Red line nov.18 show someting is very wrong.

    Thank you. That appears to be a catastrophic change from circa 20 million square kilometres of sea ice to only 16 million square kilometres in just one year.

    Something is indeed very wrong.

  34. What if you’re not good at business?

    What if you’re too ill as you age to be able to afford the energy necessary to run a business?

    What if you were looking forward to downshifting after a lifetime of work and raising a family?

    You’ll be looked down upon I guess as ‘Pensioners’.

  35. Has the Turnbull govt made any real moves towards a coal-free future? Of course not. They are relying on coal and iron to save their budget. Hopeless.

    The former head of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority has called for a ban on all new coalmines in Australia, saying the move is needed to protect the Great Barrier Reef from climate change.

    “I love the reef and I have worked to preserve it since 1979; I will oppose anything that threatens to destroy it,” said Graeme Kelleher, who was the first chief executive of GBRMPA, a position he held for 16 years. “The Great Barrier Reef is one of the seven wonders of the world.”

    Kelleher, who is also a member of the Ocean Elders – a group of global leaders concerned about ocean conservation including Richard Branson, James Cameron, Jane Goodall and EO Wilson – said: “Australia cannot have a healthy Great Barrier Reef and a continuing coal industry.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/21/former-great-barrier-reef-marine-park-head-calls-for-ban-on-new-coalmines?CMP=share_btn_tw

  37. Turn on ABC and get Morrison bumbling on about the ALP as per usual. Does he really think continuously raving about the ALP makes him look the master of his domain?

    Absolutely hopeless.

  38. Another extract from above article. The stand by the government is unconscionable.

    Kelleher said the continued health of the reef demanded action on climate change and a halt to all new or expanded coalmines.

    He said the Adani’s huge Carmichael coalmine must not go ahead and that the high court ought to find in favour of the Australian Conservation Foundation and overturn the federal environmental approval of the mine.

    The ACF will argue, on appeal to the high court, that emissions from the burning of coal dug up from the mine will exacerbate climate change and harm the Great Barrier Reef. The government has argued, successfully so far, that there is no link between the mine’s coal and climate change.

    “A proper court that, shall I say, was scientifically attuned, would recognise this,” Kelleher said. “Although the coal will not be burned in Australia, it will still be burned in india and that will affect the Great Barrier Reef.”

  39. Top marks for logic to our Treasurer.

    ABC Current Affairs ‏@amworldtodaypm · 6m6 minutes ago

    When will the #budget be balanced? “It will be balanced when expenditure is less than revenue”: @ScottMorrisonMP #auspol

  41. lizzie @ #64 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 8:27 am

    Top marks for logic to our Treasurer.

    ABC Current Affairs ‏@amworldtodaypm · 6m6 minutes ago
    When will the #budget be balanced? “It will be balanced when expenditure is less than revenue”: @ScottMorrisonMP #auspol

    Or revenue is greater than expense. But he could never bring himself to say it.

  42. c@tmomma @ #59 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 8:16 am

    What if you’re not good at business?
    What if you’re too ill as you age to be able to afford the energy necessary to run a business?
    What if you were looking forward to downshifting after a lifetime of work and raising a family?
    You’ll be looked down upon I guess as ‘Pensioners’.

    No. It is an option, not a prescription.

  43. Global sea ice extent extremely low. Mimimum records seen both in the Arctic and Antarctica. Red line nov.18 show someting is very wrong.

    The North Atlantic conveyor is the system- including the Gulf Stream – that takes heat from the tropics up into northern latitudes. If it shuts down it will produce rapid and extreme cooling of much of Europe.
    Release of large amounts of freshwater from melting of ice sheets could shut it down. There are already signs that it is slowing.
    https://news.mongabay.com/2016/05/scientists-concerned-slowing-atlantic-conveyor-warn-abrupt-climate-change/

  44. B K
    While you and Mrs. BK are in and around Canberra please watch out for two ladies waving furiously.
    One is my sister-in-law and the other my cousin.
    Both ladies of a certain age.
    Each will have a carnation in her hair.
    Please wave back. 😎

  45. Thanks as always for the links BK.
    I imagine you are traveling to Canberra for the dedication of of new luggage lift at the lodge ( it is definitely a lifter not a leaner).

  47. If Labor wants to counter the rise of Hansonism they need to start in the regions. (Hanson herself has picked up the issue of increasing wireless broadband in the regions – a good starting point.)
    e.g.
    1) Fix NBN issues and extend fibre rollout to enable more fixed wireless in regions.
    2) Increase renewable power generation in regions -particularly where existing coal gen is being shut down and distribution infrastructure already exists – as in Port Augusta
    3)Major expansion of human services and environmental jobs programs.

  48. c@tmomma @ #17 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 7:30 am

    I agree with Socrates. My parents are of the opinion that the only time the children get any of their money is after they are dead. They told me explicitly that I have to stand on my own two feet financially with no help from them.

    As I have said to my parents,

    “If you leave me something when you’re gone, thank you.
    But if you don’t do something you want to do because you think you have to leave me something, then I will be angry.”

  49. A long way from Hollywood, Disneyland, TrumpTower/5th Avenue – a picture is worth a 1000 words

    The dirt poor towns in America that voted in Donald Trump but have little chance of being great again.
    THEY are the poorest counties in America with almost half of their population living below
    the poverty line and a majority who just voted in Donald Trump.

    The region is characterised by mostly white, Republican, gun carrying, working class people.

    http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/the-dirt-poor-towns-in-america-that-voted-in-donald-trump-but-have-little-chance-of-being-great-again/news-story/7c0c2b69937cbbd5f95578f848fd4d10

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