BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Labor retains its solid lead on the latest reading of the national poll aggregate, although a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland has taken some of the shine off Labor’s position on the seat projection.

The latest reading of BludgerTrack records next to no movement on national voting intention, the only new addition to the dataset being a status quo Essential Research result. However, the Coalition has picked up two in Queensland on the seat projection on the back of a relatively good set of numbers from the Queensland-only Galaxy poll published by the Courier-Mail yesterday. This found the Coalition at 39%, compared with 43.2% at the election; Labor at 30%, compared with 30.9%; the Greens on 8%, compared with 8.8%; and One Nation with 12%, compared with 5.5%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday of the week before last from a sample of 900. No new data on leadership ratings this week.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

381 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. Will we ever see an Ipsos poll again? Or a federal Reachtel?

    We’ve gone from polling overload to a polling wasteland since the election.

  2. QUESTION – If the next election is about the Lib’s budget disaster, I suspect that a lot of One Nation voters will be to s… scared to let the bastards stay in office.

  3. Jeeze, if the libs are down to almost 47, where will they go now the public has finally woken up that the Libs have blown a huge hole in the budget and we have a frighteningly incompetent treasurer who represents foreign multinationals? They might easily hit 45 in the next few months.

  4. So Mr Morrison , we are to be in surplus by 2020/21 then eh ? Oh and how is the, what was it, GDP 3.5% growth for 20116/17 going ?

    The federal budget deficit is projected to expand by another $24.3bn over the next four years, as Australia’s record-low wages growth and a shortfall in company tax blow a hole in the income tax take……………., raising the spectre of a major credit ratings downgrade.

  5. IPSOS recently polled Australians about their attitudes to the US election, but have decided that the Australian political environment is none of our business. It is unlikely that Fairfax will commission an IPSOS while Malcolm is so far behind in the other polls – a matter of pretending that it business as normal under Mal (and it’s all Bill Shorten’s fault, anyway)

  6. Gabrielle Chan: “Scott Morrison is being interviewed by Ray Hadley on 2GB. They are talking about the removal of their gallbladders. Just so you know.”

  7. Oh god! The woman who didn’t even know that Westconnex was in the process of bulldozing the heritage suburb of Haberfield is unveiling her myopic vision of Sydney for the next 40 years …

    She wants Sydney to become three cities – no doubt being the Eastern Suburbs, the Lower North Shore and “The Rest”.

    So glad I don’t live there any more!

  8. PO – Ferdinand and Imelda Turnbull are just a shocking pair of Eastern Suburbs dilettantes. Absolutely no qualifications for the job. All she does is piss people off.

  9. lizzie @ #64 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 8:27 am

    Top marks for logic to our Treasurer.

    ABC Current Affairs ‏@amworldtodaypm · 6m6 minutes ago
    When will the #budget be balanced? “It will be balanced when expenditure is less than revenue”: @ScottMorrisonMP #auspol

    Actually, he is wrong.
    When expenditure is less than revenue it will be in surplus.
    It will be balanced when expenditure matches revenue.
    Poor Scotty is not very bright. All that babbling in tongues is not good for you.

  10. BK

    Never mind Mesma’s hard rubbish pile, I am hearing whispers that she is seriously being looked at as taking over from Turnbull!

  11. For those of you without the stomach to listen to the AM branch of the elite media propaganda unit, I can report that 20 minutes of a half hour show was given over to a menu of which Stalin would be proud.

    First, for entree we had 5 minutes of the wonderful and totally impartial Chris Richardson telling us that company tax cuts were one of the few methods of growing the economy.

    Then main course was the gallant Scott Morrison doing the hard yards of sagging labor, as happens on most days, although he has a particular talent for this task.

    Desert was the magnificent Mal interviewed by the normally forensic Greg Jennett, doyen of the press gallery or something. Can’t report on the highlights of Mal’s yabbering because I fell asleep while walking, which is quite a feat.

  12. Doesn’t matter how many times they offer it to Mesma, she will refuse. She does not want the responsibility. She knows she’s not competent. And there is no way she will spent time running the country when she could spend it dolling herself up.

  13. antonbruckner11 @ #112 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 9:50 am

    PO – Ferdinand and Imelda Turnbull are just a shocking pair of Eastern Suburbs dilettantes. Absolutely no qualifications for the job. All she does is piss people off.

    The only reason they know the Lower North Shore exists is because they can see it out of the windows of their harbourside mansions. The rest of Sydney must be a complete mystery to them.

  14. The dearth of talent in the Coalition is becoming more and more apparent.

    Talk of promoting Dutton because he is so successful would be hilarious if it wasn’t so sad.

    Morrison is still doing his 5th class ‘projects – complete with visual aids’ … we’ll all be old and grey by the time he makes it to high school level maths.

    Mesma is a master of shoulder rubbing – that is the sum total of her talent.

    The rest are all in PR, but sadly their clients (us) are being dudded by their ineptitude.

    Mal, at least can wave his hands (but not in time with his speech) and segue with a meaningful expression. So he is, at least, well credentialed as a hollow front man.

  15. JENAUTHOR – The lack of talent is truly staggering. Any lib with half-a-brain and a touch of charisma could knock off Malcolm and be prime minister right now. The big problem is …

  16. JENAUTHOR – The lack of talent will become particularly obvious when the Libs lose office at the next election. Who’s going to hold the party together and stop it disintegrating?

  17. Have been trying to do what should be a very easy task for Centrelink on line.

    My son taped me at about the 45 minute mark, where I was banging my head on the keyboard and screaming.

    Of course, once I found my way through the maze to provide the information they wanted, it took about a minute. If you don’t count the fact that I had to log back in because it timed me out the first time.

  18. Saw Mesma on TV at the weekend making the main speech at the Ethnic Small Business awards ?? …. the one hosted by Tracey Spicer.

    For someone with even the slightest consideration of becoming PM, her speech making skills are pathetic, both in content and delivery.

    No matter how much she tries to hide her real self behind jewellery and constant hi-end fashion costumery, she cannot disguise the fact that she is a cold hearted person with barely fair average quality ability.

    I hope I’m not wrong, but I suspect that her history of seeking only the deputy job shows that she has just a modicum of brains and self-insight sufficient to know that she’s ill equipped to be even a (domestic portfolio) minister, let alone PM.

    Realistically, displaying her international fashion purchases on many stages around the globe is the highest she can hope for.

  19. Driving in Sydney will soon be accompanied by a large sucking sound eminating from your wallet.

    And in a decade’s time, and in the years to follow that, Sydney’s growing spiderweb of toll roads is likely to be taking an ever increasing chunk of our hard-earned

    Take WestConnex. Within three years of its completion in 2023, Sydney motorists will be paying about $25 for a return car trip on the toll road. Or take the situation confronting motorists ………………… They will be charged well in excess of $20 for a one-way trip within 10 years. And with wages growth at record lows, that means a larger proportion of many household incomes will go towards paying tolls.

  20. Some up to date information on the NBN.

    Quite a good article which highlights the discontent in industry with Fraudband.

    Fresh govt funding for NBN: IA calls for ditching FttN

    Internet Australia, the peak body for users in the country, has told the government to allow NBN Co to abandon its rollout of fibre to the node so that it can minimise the amount of money it needs to borrow in order to complete the NBN.
    The government announced on Friday that it would be loaning NBN Co the $19.5 billion it needs to complete the rollout. The loan would be on commercial terms.

    In May, the government’s budget papers indicated that NBN Co would run out of money this year and would need to borrow between $16.5 billion and $26.5 billion to complete the project.

    At that point, the government said it would not offer any additional funding and NBN Co would have to raise money from the private sector.

    But that plan appears to have been scrapped. The $19.5 billion is to be repaid by 2020/21.
    Internet Australia chief executive Laurie Patton said there were concerns in the community about the limited FttN speeds being delivered to customers.

    He also said there was advice from IA’s technical experts that FttN would need to be replaced in 10 to 15 years, if not sooner.

    Patton said NBN Co should “be encouraged to use future-proofed technologies that will provide for our long-term broadband requirements without the need to incur massive upgrade costs even before the business becomes profitable”.

    “The way it looks now, at the time when they have to repay the government they will need to borrow more money to rebuild the FttN network”.

    He said IA believed the NBN Co “should move to new technology options that weren’t available when the government instructed it to abandon its fibre-to-the-premises model in favour of copper”.

    “NBN Co recently acknowledged that it cannot use the Optus Pay TV cables and has decided instead to deploy more advanced fibre to the distribution point (FttDP) technology, also known as fibre to the driveway or, as NBN Co is now calling it, fibre to the curb (FttC).

    “If they have decided that FttN is not good enough for the people who were to have the NBN delivered via Optus cables then surely they should use FttDP for everyone? Otherwise, we will be creating a new digital divide – people with the fastest up-to-date service and others stuck back in the 20th century.”

  21. Poroti

    Take WestConnex. Within three years of its completion in 2023, Sydney motorists will be paying about $25 for a return car trip on the toll road.

    Sydneysiders won’t use it as long is there any alternative, no matter how congested. Sydneysiders are notorious for avoiding toll roads till they go bankrupt – sometimes more than once. The cross-city tunnel is a classic example. The current owners should just bite the bullet on that one and turn it into a skateboard park – it would generate more revenue!

  22. Have been trying to do what should be a very easy task for Centrelink on line.

    My son taped me at about the 45 minute mark, where I was banging my head on the keyboard and screaming.

    When (too regularly) facing a similar scenario, my 4yo ambles up and gives me a kiss on the arm saying “this will make daddy feel better.” He’s a good boy 🙂

  23. Zoomster,
    Not meaning to intentionally rain on your parade but my son had to contact Centrelink today about a seasonal job he has until Christmas. He rang the number on the letter he received in the mail on Friday and, um…got straight through!

    I think this is a first btw. : )

  24. As we saw last week, wages growth is the lowest on record, and for most of this year almost all the jobs growth has been part time or casual.

    That’s not because corporate taxes are too high. It is because there is spare capacity in the labour market. And that’s a trend likely to continue.

    The next burst of technology — artificial intelligence — is likely to cut an even larger swathe through the skilled workforce. If anything, future corporate investment is likely to target innovations that will limit the need for labour, thereby reducing any flow through to wages.

    That trend will place greater pressure on society, and make it more difficult for government to maintain decent living standards and continue to provide services.

    The challenge for governments now and into the future is to devise a way to maintain a productive workforce and to ensure income and wealth are spread across society.

    That’s what the masses, those voting for the populists, are crying out for.

  25. lizzie @ #159 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 11:05 am

    Fttxxxx. How many more acronyms will they try?
    Do it once, do it right, do it with fibre. Sigh.

    My area is likely to go live with NBN this week. Old area where they have stupidly replaced degraded copper with copper and not fibre. Will see if I actually get any improvement in speeds once we change over.

  26. Barry Tucker ‏@btckr · 3h3 hours ago

    Stephen Koukoulas sees a different economy to waffling Morrison & Cormann. Why isn’t he on ABC as often as IPA?

  27. Eddy Jokovich ‏@EddyJokovich · 3h3 hours ago

    Michaelea Cash wants us to believe unions are disrupting $100 billion worth of construction work. Total lies, not pulled up on it. #auspol

    Are they afraid to argue, or just ignorant?

  28. C@

    today, the phones didn’t even ring…but yes, talking to a person is still way more efficient than trying to do ‘the right thing’ and doing stuff on line.

  29. So the Coalition’s finally admitted that their laughable budget assumptions around wages growth needed to go.

    Good to see. Although did they just update this year’s numbers and leave all the future ones unchanged?

  30. adrian @ #174 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    ‘Why isn’t he on ABC as often as IPA?’
    Or Chris Richardson, who is on almost as often and is usually given star billing.

    The right wing guests on the ABC are required to balance out the left wing presenters. If they had left wing guests the whole building at Ultimo would keel over.

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