BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Labor retains its solid lead on the latest reading of the national poll aggregate, although a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland has taken some of the shine off Labor’s position on the seat projection.

The latest reading of BludgerTrack records next to no movement on national voting intention, the only new addition to the dataset being a status quo Essential Research result. However, the Coalition has picked up two in Queensland on the seat projection on the back of a relatively good set of numbers from the Queensland-only Galaxy poll published by the Courier-Mail yesterday. This found the Coalition at 39%, compared with 43.2% at the election; Labor at 30%, compared with 30.9%; the Greens on 8%, compared with 8.8%; and One Nation with 12%, compared with 5.5%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday of the week before last from a sample of 900. No new data on leadership ratings this week.

bt2019-2016-11-16

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

381 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  2. Rowan Dean: “Malcolm Turnbull’s survival depends on how quickly he realises that climate change is a hoax.”

    Perhaps Rowan Dean is a hoax, too.

  5. Cross City Tunnel?

    I worked on that. I also worked on the numerous projects in Surry Hills, Darlingurst etc where they changed the back roads structure to force motorists into the tunnel (as part of the Public/Private contract – at the tax payers expense).

  6. Antonbruckner11

    All part of their “Starve the beast” strategy.

    Starving the beast” is a political strategy employed by American conservatives to limit government spending by cutting taxes, in order to deprive the federal government of revenue in a deliberate effort to force it to reduce spending.
    On July 14, 1978, economist Alan Greenspan testified to the U.S. Finance Committee: “Let us remember that the basic purpose of any tax cut program in today’s environment is to reduce the momentum of expenditure growth by restraining the amount of revenue available……………..Before his election as President, then-candidate Ronald Reagan foreshadowed the strategy during the 1980 US Presidential debates

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast

  7. Listening to NSW Treasurer Gladys Berejiklian while travelling on a 40-50 year old non air conditioned train, as she gamely spruiked the benefits of ‘assett recycling’, the new euphemism for privatisation.
    It is obvious that the only talent that these Libs have is the art of bullshit, various flavours of which I was subject to this morning.

  8. lizzie & Trog
    With the AMOC, it is too soon too tell. Probably need another decade to distinguish the signal from the cyclical noise.
    Interesting pick ups on global sea-ice extent and the AMOC!
    Arctic sea-ice extent in November actually spent a couple of days melting instead of accreting. It is now at record low levels for this time of the year. It is around three standard deviations less than the 30 year line.
    The other peculiarity is that Antarctic sea-ice extent which had spent quite a while either being stable or in a small growing trend, is now in a trend of losing extent.
    You need not check the MSM for any discussion about these issues.
    Similarly, you need not bother consulting the Murdoch press for clarification of just how much of the Reef now consists of dead (rather than bleached) coral.
    The short answer is: most coral north of about Port Douglas.
    The game here is to get Carmichael up in the Galillee.

  9. l
    I would like to think that Mr Dean has children and grandchildren so that there will be someone around to curse his memory on personal basis.

  13. Boerwar Monday, November 21, 2016 at 12:48 pm

    ***************************************

    Boerwar – seeing you are around – this may interest you – shipwrecks from the Battle Of The Java Sea missing ….

    The mystery of World War II shipwrecks that have vanished

    None of the ships could be considered small. The USS Perch was 91m long and weighed 1370 tonnes. The Dutch warship HNLMS De Ruyter was 171m long and when full weighed more than 6650 tonnes while Britain’s HMS Exeter was even heavier at a whopping 8520 tonnes.

    http://www.news.com.au/technology/science/the-mystery-of-world-war-ii-shipwrecks-that-have-vanished/news-story/2e13b83a950880a2f4525bc55b1441cf

  15. “NBN Co recently acknowledged that it cannot use the Optus Pay TV cables and has decided instead to deploy more advanced fibre to the distribution point (FttDP) technology, also known as fibre to the driveway or, as NBN Co is now calling it, fibre to the curb (FttC).

    “If they have decided that FttN is not good enough for the people who were to have the NBN delivered via Optus cables then surely they should use FttDP for everyone? Otherwise, we will be creating a new digital divide – people with the fastest up-to-date service and others stuck back in the 20th century.”

    I recently went to a presentation on the NBN by Professor Mark Gregory.

    Normally a telco will deploy FTTdp using GPON (also used for FTTP). Gregory was saying that NBN are talking about using Ethernet back to a node. That’s brain dead.

  16. PR
    Perhaps fitting in a way.
    The Dutch arrived as state-sanctioned pirates and it looks like the locals may have returned the favour.

  17. I had to chuckle at Senator Malcolm Roberts, former coal mining executive calling OTHER people elites:
    “Senator Roberts is using his comments to rail against “the elites” – including Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.
    He says:
    It is as if laws are for the peasants, accountability for the poor.
    The elites would call them the great unwashed, call us the great unwashed.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-21/politics-live-november-21/8040680

    Of course Roberts was General Manager of a large mine back in the high growth 90s. He has enough private wealth to have done no reported paid work for the past eight years(!) He was born in India (immigrant job-stealer!) where the family home was staffed with servants. Dad went on to be Qld Chief Inspector of Mines. And he calls other people “elite”! ROTFL 🙂

  18. Keane:

    Considerable attention will be devoted over the coming 11 days to the fortunes of the government’s Australian Building and Construction Commission bill.
    …But neither success nor failure with the ABCC bill will be relevant to the policy or political future of this government — and those two are closely linked. it doesn’t matter a great deal if failure or success meet the government’s legislative efforts.
    …
    While the government is fiddling with distractions like the ABCC and internal stoushes over 18C and same-sex marriage, others are making the running on economic policy. Labor has ramped up its 457 visa campaign and caught the government on the hop. The IMF and the Reserve Bank have repeatedly pushed for more infrastructure investment; the IMF has subtly criticised negative gearing. The Productivity Commission is calling for new reform ideas. The crossbenches continues to push on protectionism and curbs on foreign investment.
    Not merely is the government not driving policy ideas itself, it’s barely in the discussion. The Abbott government at least provoked discussion, even if it quickly lost the debate. The only real resonance of the ABCC bill is that it elegantly symbolises this government: an outfit so bereft of ideas it is stealing those of previous political generations to convey the impression it has an agenda.

  19. Charles Croucher ‏@ccroucher9 · 8m8 minutes ago

    “I’m not mentally deranged at all…”
    – Rod Culleton leaves the High Court assuring us his psychologist wife diagnosed him as “a machine”

  21. A senior NASA official has taken the extraordinary step of personally rebuking One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts’ claims the agency had falsified key data to exaggerate current extreme warming in the Arctic.

    Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told Senator Roberts he was “mistaken” in his assertion the US agency had “removed” Arctic data to mask warming in the 1940s.

    “You appear to hold a number of misconceptions which I am happy to clarify at this time,” Dr Schmidt told Senator Roberts in letters and emails obtained by Fairfax Media. “The claim that GISS has ‘removed the 1940s warmth’ in the Arctic is not correct.”

    Dr Schmidt noted in his letter dated November 18 that the data was freely available on its website: “We are certainly gratified by the attention Australia pays to our analysis, but in case you have remaining questions, I urge you to perform your own analyses.”

    http://linkis.com/www.smh.com.au/envir/bywQM

  22. Greg Jericho makes an interesting point regarding 457 Visas:

    “The Fair Work Commission suggested last year that about 20% of workers on 457 visas were underpaid or employed in jobs they were not meant to be doing.

    That is a massive failure of a government program – were it a program involving a union, the government and conservative media would be screaming for another royal commission!”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/nov/20/in-fighting-to-protect-jobs-and-workers-lets-not-get-caught-up-in-xenophobia#comment-87879116

  23. “I’m not mentally deranged at all…”
    – Rod Culleton leaves the High Court assuring us his psychologist wife diagnosed him as “a machine”
    Wouldn’t Culleton need a psychiatrist to diagnose him as sane or not? His psychologist wife is not a doctor. And of course, you can be legally sane but still quite deranged. Take Cabinet for example ….

  24. Good Afternoon

    Its going to be an interesting question time as Barnaby Joyce takes the helm. How many condolence motions will he use to eat up the time?

  27. BTW, given his penchant for bad paperwork, (note the ATO ruling) shouldn’t someone be checking whether Malcolm Roberts has renounced any former citizenship when he (presumably) became an Australian citizen?

  30. This graph is explicit in showing the changes in sea ice this year

    Bill McKibben
    Bill McKibben – Verified account ‏@billmckibben

    This is a graph of total global sea ice. The red line is this year. Something is very very wrong.

  32. Boerwar

    The game here is to get Carmichael up in the Galillee.

    I don’t think this will happen. Too many dead bodies.
    As to the Reef, it is clear that already climate change has already cost Australia billions, it’s just that the tour operators, QLD tourism and the government are in denial.
    There is no chance that political action will fix emissions, it’s way too late, but technology can and will. The role of government should be to pave the way for the transition to renewables.
    It may be that the election of Trump will bring climate activism to the fore, and help put policies in place to responsibly manage what’s left of the environment and species diversity.

  33. Do these guys ever think before theyopen their mouths?

    Andrew Leigh ‏@ALeighMP · 49s49 seconds ago  Canberra, Australian Capital Territory

    Steve Ciobo on @ABC_NewsRadio this morning: “I mean, Australia doesn’t enter trade agreements because we think they’re a good idea.” #auspol

  42. ** I say that because if Roberts was born in India in 1955 **
    Someone needs to check if he currently resides on planet Earth.

  47. sspencer_63: To the mystified faces on the Govt benches as Barnaby speaks. Sorry, can’t help you. We have no idea what he’s talking about either #QT

  50. A very relevent question on sea level rise from Di Natale, so the Minister waffles and insults Di Natale instead of answering it.

    I hope the Minister’s properties all end up three metres under.

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