BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Labor retains its solid lead on the latest reading of the national poll aggregate, although a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland has taken some of the shine off Labor’s position on the seat projection.

The latest reading of BludgerTrack records next to no movement on national voting intention, the only new addition to the dataset being a status quo Essential Research result. However, the Coalition has picked up two in Queensland on the seat projection on the back of a relatively good set of numbers from the Queensland-only Galaxy poll published by the Courier-Mail yesterday. This found the Coalition at 39%, compared with 43.2% at the election; Labor at 30%, compared with 30.9%; the Greens on 8%, compared with 8.8%; and One Nation with 12%, compared with 5.5%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday of the week before last from a sample of 900. No new data on leadership ratings this week.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

381 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. NIck X needs very little excuse to go all patriotic and stubborn. It plays to his crowd and keeps him in the news.

    Barnaby has given him a sack full excuses.

  2. simon katich @ #189 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 2:55 pm

    Turkish coffee, of course, isnt instant coffee. It is roasted beans, finely ground, simmered in a special container and then poured unfiltered.
    The best, in my experience, is served in the Czech Republic (who also make a pretty good french press) but I have enjoyed good cups in Sumatra and the highlands around Lake Prespa.

    My first Turkish coffee was shortly after arriving in Cairo.

    Fantastic coffee but I quickly learnt after the first one you don’t drink it all.

    Vietnam is great for coffee.
    Cafe da is the most common which is basically an iced espresso.

  3. I think Dutton just said that his opinion is that Lebanese Muslims should not have been allowed to enter the country some decades ago, because some of their grandkids became criminals?

  4. After Barnyard went off reservation, Turnbull obviously called up X and reassured him that Barnyard had gone off script. That’s why X described Barnyard as “free ranging”. Labor has picked up on that. If X believes Malcolm’s bullshit he’s even dumber than I thought.

  5. Mark Di Stefano ‏@MarkDiStef · 4m4 minutes ago

    Dutton: “Where I see extremism I will call it out!” Anne Aly so furiously points at George Christensen that her leather jacket falls off.

  6. Edward Upton ‏@Honeputu · 11m11 minutes ago

    #qt the coalition knocked back the Malaysian solution then 800 refugees drowned. This is something Dutton won’t talk about

  7. Stephen Jones MP Verified account 
    ‏@StephenJonesMP
    Delightful expressions on the ASEAN delegation faces as Acting PM Barnaby goes off in #QT

    They must be losing respect for Australian parly: shouty Barnaby, Dutton, ScoMo.

  8. SK,
    I grew up in Stanmore. My family bought a house there in 1923 for 12 Pounds. : )

    I was spoilt for choice when it came to fine dining. Norton Street, Leichardt; Glebe Point Road; Newtown; Stanmore; Marrickville.

  9. When I went to uni, I lived on Lebanese food. Those were the days when you could get proper kebabs, not the rubbish they scrape off a big greasy stick. Anyone who wants a great Turkish breakfast go to Effende in Balmain. Basically $30 a head for all you can eat. Wonderful food.

  10. Paul Keating never had to shout. Whitlam never had to shout. And even on the Coalition side, two of their better performers, Howard and Costello never had to shout.

  11. I’m not sure that sure that I should be the one to point out the following.
    The last 2 or 3 pages have been restricted to comment criticizing “playschool”.
    Fair go dudes.
    Leave Barney the Bludger, Mally the Duck , Mr. Potato Head to the real children please.
    :razz::

  12. C@t, its an awesome area. Thanks to the immigrants who, in large part, made it so.

    I remember picking up a mate of a mate from Stanmore on a hiking trip to Kanangra Boyd. This bloke lived in a wonderful house and was a decedent of Wentworth. I didnt like him. He packed light and made fun of me (I like to pack heavy). I wasnt impressed when, half way to nowhere, he asked me for toilet paper.

  13. I think Dutton just said that his opinion is that Lebanese Muslims should not have been allowed to enter the country some decades ago, because some of their grandkids became criminals?

    There is a kernel of truth to this. Australia managed, by not managing our intake of migrants from Lebanon during the civil war, to pick up the dregs of society. To be precise: what I am saying is that some of the migrants from Lebanon during this period were not nice people. They were often already ostracised from their own communities before moving here, due to their behaviour and questionable activities, and it is no surprise they continued them here.

    That they happened to be Lebanese and muslim is beside the point. The many Lebanese people and Australians of Lebanese heritage that I know are typically either ashamed or exasperated or both by this very small minority sullying their country’s name.

    However, that Dutton is using this as a political football says a lot about him – his generalisations are nothing short of racial slurs – but none of this is of any surprise to us here on PB.

  14. Dutton cannot say Fraser made a mistake because of the actions of the kids or grandkids … that is saying Fraser needed to be psychic to be aware of the actions of unborn people.

    It also then implies that he needs to know, in advance, what any current refugees’ grandkids will do. Unfortunately, Mr Potatohead doesn’t apprehend reality now, so in 2050 …?????

  15. AB11

    I missed qt. But how stupid is Dutton. It is not for politicians to expose law and order issues within ethnic communities. These are highly sensitive matters that are dealt with by law enforcement. It is not for people such as Dutton to politicise.
    Terrorism and crime within certain ethnic communities is a very serious problem that is not going to be resolved overnight

  16. To be precise: what I am saying is that some of the migrants from Lebanon during this period were not nice people.

    Which may well be true. But didn’t seem like Dutton’s point. He seemed to be saying that those people shouldn’t have gotten in, not because they were shady at the time, but because of things their children’s children did decades later.

    I don’t think that’s a logically defensible position? If it is, it certainly begs the quetion about what should have been done about all those white Europeans who came here only to sire subsequent generations containing some number of thieves and murderers each time. By Dutton’s reasoning, those European migrants are all undesirables.

  17. Dutton throwing accusations of dishonesty and cowardice across the chamber at Shorten only shows his sleazy nature. KMurphy, I think, referred to “truncheon tactics”.

  18. These may be more or less right. I had little idea of the relativities between Arctic spaces and Australia until I started fiddling around with the following:

    The Arctic is losing sea-ice extent at an annual rate equivalent to approximately land area of Tasmania.So, we’ve lost ten Tasmanias worth of sea-ice in the last ten years.

    Another approach is to think about it like this: right now Arctic sea-ice extent is the equivalent to the loss of around ten Victorias worth of sea ice compared to the thirty year mean.

    Another way to think of the area currently below the 30 year mean would be to drive directly from Melbourne to Cooktown, were that possible, and have a fifty kilometer wide swathe of lost ice on both sides as you drive.

  19. CTaR1
    Nice touch: adding ‘farmers’ to ‘shooters’ and ‘fishers’.
    The ‘miners’ will not be liking that at all, at all.
    They have pawned the Nats for decades.

  20. Basically, we have a minister saying to an ethnic group: “You shouldn’t be here and I wish you weren’t here”. Absolutely reprehensible. Fairfax had no problem calling on Shorten to resign. Are they going to call for Dutton to resign?

  21. LU

    Law enforcement here in Victoria have been given an abundance of resources to deal with the terrorism threats and crime within this particular ethnic community. It is a big challenge, but we dont need the likes of Dutton to politicise it. Disgraceful conduct by him.

  22. boerwar @ #236 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 3:45 pm

    These may be more or less right. I had little idea of the relativities between Arctic spaces and Australia until I started fiddling around with the following:
    The Arctic is losing sea-ice extent at an annual rate equivalent to approximately land area of Tasmania.So, we’ve lost ten Tasmanias worth of sea-ice in the last ten years.
    Another approach is to think about it like this: right now Arctic sea-ice extent is the equivalent to the loss of around ten Victorias worth of sea ice compared to the thirty year mean.
    Another way to think of the area currently below the 30 year mean would be to drive directly from Melbourne to Cooktown, were that possible, and have a fifty kilometer wide swathe of lost ice on both sides as you drive.

    Fortunately it has virtually no impact on sea levels.

  23. ** Ugly scene at Adelade Airport as South African security rough up a Ch 9 journalist **
    Just catching up on the footage.
    Nothing scream GUILTY more than over zealous security.

  24. But didn’t seem like Dutton’s point.

    No doubt it wasn’t. But he’s tapping into a kernel of truth, and one that is openly spoken about in the Lebanese community itself.

    It is a big challenge, but we dont need the likes of Dutton to politicise it. Disgraceful conduct by him.

    I completely agree with you.

  25. AB11

    Dutton can wish these people were not in this country, but they are Australian citizens and we have law enforcement tasked with the job of dealing with them. Dutton’s commentary is unhelpful. It only makes these nasty people more determined. They already scoff at the law and the govt. It is so counterproductive.

  26. Mark Di Stefano ‏@MarkDiStef 2h2 hours ago
    Labor’s Graham Perrett yells from the backbench at Josh Frydenberg: “Tell us about the mean streets of Kew!”

  27. Dutton is to his audience as Di Natale is to his audience.
    They appear to share an unwillingness to talk to people other than their own.

  28. workmanalice: AG George Brandis didn’t know a microphone was on and was caught calling the QLD Liberal Opposition “very very mediocre” #auspol.

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