BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

One new poll on voting intention and one on leadership ratings find the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintaining its recent boring form.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has provided remarkably little excitement since it resumed two months ago, with the two-party preferred reading never moving more than a few fractions of a point away from 52-48 in favour of Labor, and the seat projections never changing at any stage, either in aggregate or at the state level. This week is no exception, the only new addition being a lightly weighted result from Essential Research. The Roy Morgan results that were reported in the previous post have been added to the leadership ratings, without effecting any change worth mentioning.

bt2019-2016-11-02

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. kevjohnno @ #1149 Monday, November 7, 2016 at 5:39 pm

    Good points Bemused. I read an article about an earlier crash (April) there that said about 3000 trucks go under the bridge every day. You would think mitigation steps might have been considered at some stage. I send containers to the port down there so when ever I see these thing I mentally reach for our insurance policies.

    Most parking stations have in place hanging warning bars set at the safe height.

  2. D
    It is not what the keys are worth. It is the length of the potential, not actual, sentence. I believe that he pleaded guilty but no conviction was recorded…
    Apart from that, there was another matter in NSW.
    Apart from that, there might be a bit of bother in relation to a potential bankrupt-type situation.

  3. kevjohnno @ #1149 Monday, November 7, 2016 at 5:39 pm

    Good points Bemused. I read an article about an earlier crash (April) there that said about 3000 trucks go under the bridge every day. You would think mitigation steps might have been considered at some stage. I send containers to the port down there so when ever I see these thing I mentally reach for our insurance policies.

    It really doesn’t look as if it would be too hard to drop the road level a metre or so.

    Montague St seems to be the main site for such crashes and they occur with monotonous regularity. All the costs of cleanups, checking the bridge and traffic disruption would surely justify fixing the underlying problem?

  4. bk @ #1151 Monday, November 7, 2016 at 5:41 pm

    kevjohnno @ #1149 Monday, November 7, 2016 at 5:39 pm

    Good points Bemused. I read an article about an earlier crash (April) there that said about 3000 trucks go under the bridge every day. You would think mitigation steps might have been considered at some stage. I send containers to the port down there so when ever I see these thing I mentally reach for our insurance policies.

    Most parking stations have in place hanging warning bars set at the safe height.

    Indeed. And they are also at the entrance to tunnels here and some bridges.
    Doesn’t seem to work with faster moving traffic.

  6. “‘South Africa need two wickets to wrap the first test up.’
    Not a chance. The ANZAC spirit will save Australia,” or the Indian bookies.

  7. This bridge seems to have a very large girder in front of the bridge to protect it. Seems to do that job well, but the loads and possible unlucky pedestrians aren’t as well looked after.

  8. Is Culleton seriously going to get tossed over the conviction for theft of a $7.50 key which has been quashed?

    Almost certainly. The quashing of the conviction doesn’t matter — it’s that he was subject to be sentenced for it at the time he ran for election. I’ll have an article about the absurdity of this situation in Crikey over the coming days.

  10. Kenny still burns a candle for Malcolm:

    In Aussie rules they call it “putting in the short steps”: a faux dash to the ball when a blood nose looms.

    Malcolm Turnbull might have put in a few of these on his marriage equality plebiscite. Few doubt the member for Wentworth’s heart is in the right place, but how strongly is it beating?

    But here’s a new angle: a Plebiscite’s the same as a Parliamentary vote because, you see, Parliament is the same as “Heterosexual Australia”, really just a microcosm of it.

    The Prime Minister’s desultory path to the present is no secret. He opposed Tony Abbott’s plebiscite but then agreed to keep it as a condition of getting Abbott’s job. He then took that plan to an election, formed government, and has since pushed the legislation up to the Senate, where its demise is assured.

    But why? For all the valid pre-election arguments against the plebiscite, there are stronger arguments for it now than he has advanced. One is that whichever way the question is decided, it requires the assent of heterosexual Australia, either through MPs representing the broader community – i.e. Parliament – or directly via the plebiscite. . So for all their divergent procedural characteristics, the qualitative moral differences claimed by the plebiscite’s trenchant opponents are exaggerated.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbulls-halfhearted-push-for-marriage-equality-20161107-gsjjyj.html

    So how come Australia’s notjust a microcosm for ruralAustralia,and so why should we put the Prickly Pear (Rights Of Entry Of Inspectors) Amendment Act 2016 to a plebiscite, too.

    Everyone pays tax, so I reckon there should be no tax law amendments without a plebiscite. It’s not every day they want to amend the franking implications of deferred tax implications assignable to imputed returns to the spouses of unit trust beneficiaries is it? Put it to the people, I say!

    How about Education Funding? It affects almost every citizen. Plebiscite… NOW!

    Kenny’s argument that we may as well have a plebiscite, indeed that a plebiscite is the preferred and better option, the “stronger argument” because, well, a Plebiscite is just like a Great Big Parliament has to be one of the shittiest, most contrived, disingenuous pieces of malarkey I’ve have ever read.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbulls-halfhearted-push-for-marriage-equality-20161107-gsjjyj.html

  11. kevjohnno @ #1157 Monday, November 7, 2016 at 5:49 pm

    This bridge seems to have a very large girder in front of the bridge to protect it. Seems to do that job well, but the loads and possible unlucky pedestrians aren’t as well looked after.

    Yeah, I am not as familiar with that area as I used to be, so had a look on Google maps street view. Can see what you refer to but didn’t realise it was a solid girder.

  12. WB
    I hope you emphasise how ridiculous this is. How you you get any kind of sentence for a $7.50 key? How could it even get near a law court?
    The bankruptcy issue is separate and quite reasonable but to chuck an elected MP over $7.50 is beyond belief.

  14. Dio, I think it was more than just the key. What I can understand he was trying to stop a truck he was leasing repossessed, ie stopping someone taking their truck from him.

  15. Most parking stations have in place hanging warning bars set at the safe height.

    The Sydney harbour tunnel has a series of signage and the hanging height bars as well as a final measure where a wall of water is sprayed in front of the vehicle with the word “STOP” projected onto the wall of water spray…..

    and yet a while back trucks with loads etc were regularly getting stuck in the tunnel. Haven’t heard of such a situation in recent times – no doubt the vehicle owners were getting slugged heavily for damaging the tunnel etc.

  16. Queensland’s environment minister has flagged concerns that the agency tasked with protecting the Great Barrier Reef is running as a “shell of its former self” amid the underfunding of a cornerstone program.

    Steven Miles called on the federal government to fast-track an extra $1.65m for the main “on-water” management program for the reef, which had seen no increase to its funding since 2008.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/07/great-barrier-reef-authority-a-shell-of-its-former-self-says-queensland-minister

  17. Amongst other things, Brandis has tabled Justin Gleeson’s advice on the Culleton matter. You need to get through some Brandis and a few redacted pages

    http://www.aph.gov.au/~/media/02%20Parliamentary%20Business/22%20Chamber%20Documents/Dynamic%20Red%20-%2045th%20Parliament/12%20-%207%20November%202016/SenCulletonDoc2

    Mostly it is about some private challenge to Culleton, from a shafted creditor, but Gleeson eloquently outlines the arguments Culleton could use, before he fails

  20. @BB

    Here here.

    And on the other subject, I wonder if theres a market for some kind of google maps equivalent that factors in height restrictions for vehicles and then calculates safe routes. Seems like a million dollar idea, but I’m sure someone probably already though of it.

  23. According to reports in the Guardian, the legal mastermind, Culleton, is demanding a trial by jury in the High Court.

  24. diogenes @ #1162 Monday, November 7, 2016 at 5:58 pm

    WB
    I hope you emphasise how ridiculous this is. How you you get any kind of sentence for a $7.50 key? How could it even get near a law court?
    The bankruptcy issue is separate and quite reasonable but to chuck an elected MP over $7.50 is beyond belief.

    Yes, outrageous!
    That sort of sentence is usually reserved for Aborigines. 😐

  25. Culleton’s key theft was about much more than just the theft of the key, and of course he was convicted in absentia originally because he refused to show up in court.

    It strikes me as one of those situations where the thing he was “done” for may have been a trivial matter, but there is arguably a larger justice served against someone who seems to be an out-and-out ratbag who pushes the envelope so far that he deserved to be done for something.

    He may miss out on being a Senator on a technicality, but that’s hardly the worst thing that could happen to him and from what has been made public about his business practices and other shenanigans I’d say it’s not an injustice.

  27. Oh, and Pauline Hanson voted to refer the Culleton matter to the High Court. Could be we will see another spectacular implosion of One Nation.

  28. blanket criticism @ #1170 Monday, November 7, 2016 at 6:31 pm

    @BB
    Here here.
    And on the other subject, I wonder if theres a market for some kind of google maps equivalent that factors in height restrictions for vehicles and then calculates safe routes. Seems like a million dollar idea, but I’m sure someone probably already though of it.

    Google should be able to add that into Google Maps fairly easily I would have thought.
    It will plan a route for me according to certain other criteria.

  30. We don’t have a First Amendment, which absolves Trump from disqualification. All he has to do is meet this

    Age and Citizenship requirements – US Constitution, Article II, Section 1
    No person except a natural born citizen, or a citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that office who shall not have attained to the age of thirty-five years, and been fourteen years a resident within the United States.
    Term limit amendment – US Constitution, Amendment XXII, Section 1 – ratified February 27, 1951
    No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

  34. Is Albo’s point of order a first?

    In Question Time, immigration minister Peter Dutton went on a tear about the CFMEU, where he called Julia Gillard’s partner a “stay-at-home hubby”. Labor’s Anthony Albanese called a point of order on the ground of “weirdness”.

  36. Melways printed maps clearly mark low bridges.
    Furthermore they include OD routes as a separate section. OD (Over Dimensional) routes are clearly signposted across Melbourne.
    The steel gantry in front of the bridge superstructure is meant to take the full force of a collision. Look at the structure at the corner of Flinders and Spencer Street corner for example.
    Anyway sparks have resumed between Footscray/Werribee and Williamstown. The damage bill from Metro will be invoiced to the truck driver.
    There is only so much one can do against idiocy,

  39. A MESSAGE FROM THE QUEEN

    To the citizens of the United States of America from Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.

    In light of your failure to nominate competent candidates for President of the USA and thus to govern yourselves, we hereby give notice of the revocation of your independence, effective immediately.

    Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II will resume monarchical duties over all states, commonwealths, and territories (except North Dakota, which she does not fancy).
    Your new Prime Minister will appoint a Governor for America without the need for further elections. Congress and the Senate will be disbanded. A questionnaire may be circulated next year to determine whether any of you noticed.

    To aid in the transition to a British Crown dependency, the following rules are introduced with immediate effect:

    1. The letter ‘U’ will be reinstated in words such as ‘colour,’ ‘favour,’ ‘labour’ and ‘neighbour.’ Likewise, you will learn to spell ‘doughnut’ without skipping half the letters, and the suffix ‘-ize’ will be replaced by the suffix ‘-ise.’ Generally, you will be expected to raise your vocabulary to acceptable levels. (look up ‘vocabulary’).
    2. Using the same twenty-seven words interspersed with filler noises such as ”like’ and ‘you know’ is an unacceptable and inefficient form of communication. There is no such thing as U.S. English. We will let Microsoft know on your behalf. The Microsoft spell-checker will be adjusted to take into account the reinstated letter ‘u” and the elimination of ‘-ize.’
    3. July 4th will no longer be celebrated as a holiday.
    4 You will learn to resolve personal issues without using guns, lawyers, or therapists. The fact that you need so many lawyers and therapists shows that you’re not quite ready to be independent. Guns should only be used for shooting grouse. If you can’t sort things out without suing someone or speaking to a therapist, then you’re not ready to shoot grouse.
    5. Therefore, you will no longer be allowed to own or carry anything more dangerous than a vegetable peeler. Although a permit will be required if you wish to carry a vegetable peeler in public.
    6. All intersections will be replaced with roundabouts, and you will start driving on the left side with immediate effect. At the same time, you will go metric with immediate effect and without the benefit of conversion tables. Both roundabouts and metrication will help you understand the British sense of humour.
    7. The former USA will adopt UK prices on petrol (which you have been calling gasoline) of roughly $10/US gallon. Get used to it.
    8. You will learn to make real chips. Those things you call French fries are not real chips, and those things you insist on calling potato chips are properly called crisps. Real chips are thick cut, fried in animal fat, and dressed not with catsup but with vinegar.
    9. The cold, tasteless stuff you insist on calling beer is not actually beer at all. Henceforth, only proper British Bitter will be referred to as beer, and European brews of known and accepted provenance will be referred to as Lager. South African beer is also acceptable, as they are pound for pound the greatest sporting nation on earth and it can only be due to the beer. They are also part of the British Commonwealth – see what it did for them. American brands will be referred to as Near-Frozen Gnat’s Urine, so that all can be sold without risk of further confusion. 10. Hollywood will be required occasionally to cast English actors as good guys. Hollywood will also be required to cast English actors to play English characters. Watching Andie Macdowell attempt English dialect in Four Weddings and a Funeral was an experience akin to having one’s ears removed with a cheese grater.
    11. You will cease playing American football. There is only one kind of proper football; you call it soccer. Those of you brave enough will, in time, be allowed to play rugby (which has some similarities to American football, but does not involve stopping for a rest every twenty seconds or wearing full kevlar body armour like a bunch of nancies).
    12. Further, you will stop playing baseball. It is not reasonable to host an event called the World Series for a game which is not played outside of America. Since only 2.1% of you are aware there is a world beyond your borders, your error is understandable. You will learn cricket and we will let you face the South Africans first to take the sting out of their deliveries.
    13. You must tell us who really killed JFK. It’s been driving us mad.
    14. An internal revenue agent (i.e. tax collector) from Her Majesty’s Government will be with you shortly to ensure the acquisition of all monies due (backdated to 1776).
    15. Daily Tea Time begins promptly at 4 p.m. with proper cups, with saucers, and never mugs, with high quality biscuits (cookies) and cakes; plus strawberries (with cream) when in season.

    GOD SAVE THE QUEEN

  41. Darn
    Excellent 🙂
    Furthermore
    15. Subways will be hereafter referred to as the Tube or the Underground.
    16. Streetcars and trolleys will be known as trams.
    17. Railroads will be referred to as Railways e.g. Union Pacific RailWAY

  43. Darn,
    Seems reasonable to me. All their problems started when they won the War of Treason errr Independence. It was all downhill from then. Prince Charlie may hug tress and talk to daffodils but he is no Trump.

  44. Sprocket,
    Jesus would have no hope, with that olive skin, Middle Eastern background and socialist policies. Virgin birth would be the leas t of his worries, at least Pontius Pilot got him a trial.

  46. Thanks Steven

    I must confess it is not my work. I received it from a friend as an email and thought the PB crew would get a laugh out of it.

  47. Hey Trent, Malcolm is the greatest branch stacker in Australian history, and he isn’t ethnic, and you are a complete non-entity who was parachuted into a safe seat that should be reserved for a liberal leader. What a hide.

  50. The signs on the Sydney Harbour tunning warn drivers of high vehicles of $2,000+ fines and loss of licence if they get their vehicle stuck.

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