BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

One new poll on voting intention and one on leadership ratings find the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintaining its recent boring form.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has provided remarkably little excitement since it resumed two months ago, with the two-party preferred reading never moving more than a few fractions of a point away from 52-48 in favour of Labor, and the seat projections never changing at any stage, either in aggregate or at the state level. This week is no exception, the only new addition being a lightly weighted result from Essential Research. The Roy Morgan results that were reported in the previous post have been added to the leadership ratings, without effecting any change worth mentioning.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 27
1 2 27
  1. I confess I cannot follow the intricacies of 18C, except that if the RWNJs want it repealed, it must have virtue.

    Momentum appears to be building for change, with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull considering a parliamentary inquiry into the law, after a strident push by Coalition backbenchers including its entire Senate backbench cohort.

  2. Anyone in any doubt that Bambi Baird and his merry band are flat-out lunatics only has to look at the privatisation of the Land Property Information service. NSW’s torrens system is the envy of the world. Property title is the absolute bedrock of our society and the administration of it is a natural monopoly. If anything should be a government service, it should be. Now the administration of it is being privatised.

  3. How does privatizing Title even work ? Title only exists because the Crown (State) owns all property and “rents” it to citizens (which is why you don’t get e.g mineral rights or veto on public pass through for your land). If the Crown isn’t ultimately responsible for Title (as the privatization proposal seems to imply) then who is and on what basis ?

  4. The crown will still have title. But the administration of transfers etc will be privatised. It will be classic ticket clipping. And just wait for the incompetence that privatisation will breed.

  5. William got me again!

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. We have an omnibus edition today.

    John Hewson says that Turnbull’s constant point-scoring attacks on Shorten will eventually cost him his government.
    Caltex has been spooked and is now strongly investigating the pay arrangements at its franchises. There must be taxation issues too.
    Joanna Howe says that foreign students are indeed vulnerable to egregious and systematic exploitation by certain business sectors.
    Mark Kenny suggests that an attempt by hypocrite Day’s many creditors to claw back millions of dollars of donations may well bankrupt Family First.
    The AFR does some forensic work on the collapse of the Day company. Google.
    And this story certainly has legs and should feature strongly in QT.
    There is a rising climate of fear and anxiety as voter intimidation claims mount writes Paul McGeough. It makes one appreciate our own country even more.
    Here’s another reason!
    Insiders say that the FBI is “Trumpland”. Yes, the country IS stuffed!
    Trump can’t count on the “missing white voters”.
    The US election inspires projectile vomiting!

  6. Section 2 . . .

    How the heck can voters think Donald Trump is more honest than Hillary Clinton?
    The Mexican government is preparing a response for the potential election of Trump.
    Why this is the worst possible time for a Trump victory. It’s a bit frightening really.
    Greg Jericho explores how nation figures hide unevenness of growth,
    The UK High Court has delivered Brexit a blow by ruling it must be Parliament as opposed to the PM that must “pull the trigger”. The international money market acted abruptly.
    The spotlight will be on 18c today when the Federal Court hands down decision on the QUT case.
    Alan Hirst asks just why is The Australian so obsessed with 18c.,9680
    Will Baird break his run and do something right for a change?
    Privatisation strikes again!
    Something more for Baird to chew on as there are calls to extend the lockout laws to casinos.

  7. Section 3 . . .

    Now the government is trying to push its public service pay and conditions negotiation process onto ASC which has operated autonomously for decades. Google.
    Meanwhile wages for federal public servants are determined by ideas and polices that are 30 years behind the times says a former Public Service Commissioner.
    Is Pauline Hanson seeking advice on the meaning of the word “jettison” I wonder?
    The Australian tells us that investigators have found “significant safety issues” with the Dreamworld ride. Google.
    Labor is putting the acid on Turnbull over the ethics of Andrew Robb’s new fob appointment.
    MPs from all sides are preparing to defend John Howard’s gun control legacy.
    According to Turnbull it’s not chaos but there are so many of the government’s bills that are in limbo as the fate of two senators is determined.
    But Chris Johnson says that Turnbull is rueing the Senate mess of his own making.
    Laura Tingle looks at the “non-chaos” of the Senate. Google.
    Michelle Grattan writes that the ABCC legislation will be a test of Turnbull’s negotiating skills – and his backbone!
    The AFR looks at the future of the LaTrobe Valley after the Hazelwood closure. Google.
    Josh Gordon puts the Hazelwood closure into perspective.
    Windbag Alan Jones is going after wind farms again citing dubious evidence.
    Should Morrison be worried about the “net zero taxpayers” in Australia?

  8. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Australia is being left behind by global momentum on climate change.

    David Rowe takes us to the World Series final.

    Alan Moir on the cracking success of Turnbull’s double dissolution.

    Jon Kudelka also comes in on the DD outcome.

    Alan Moir looks in on the finish to the US election race.

    Another little ripper from Ron Tandberg!

    And he follows through with this one.
    David Pope certainly knows how to get the message across.
    Mark Knight has a different (News Ltd) view of the Hazelwood closure.
    Now it’s getting really personal as Bill Leak goes after Gillian Triggs.

  9. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane
    Anyone else getting the smell of the last year of Whitlam about this government?

    So George Brandis to the High Court when Chief Justice French retires then? : )

  10. c@tmomma @ #9 Friday, November 4, 2016 at 7:28 am

    Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane
    Anyone else getting the smell of the last year of Whitlam about this government?
    So George Brandis to the High Court when Chief Justice French retires then? : )

    They’d have to enlarge the doors of the High Court building to get Soapy’s head in!

  11. I don’t get Morrison’s bit about net zero tax payers at all. Isn’t Conservative utopia when everyone is a net negative taxpayer (ie they pay no tax while still using somehow provided infrastructure and services) ?

  12. Good morning, ya’all it’s been awhile. It seems the goverment has the wheels well and truely off, no great surprise there.

    As I suspected it will be…. LNP current bunch can’t run a government, but they know how to run them down to the gurgler just like Bob Day and his businesses…

    Sorry for not posting I have been too busy with RL stuff to contend with and working to pay bills etc
    What was that saying I remember LNP use to say? “Run a government like a business”? Or something like that.

  13. BK,
    They’d have to enlarge the doors of the High Court building to get Soapy’s head in!

    I constantly marvel at the shape of Brandis’ head as he gets older. He and it are turning into the Blockhead that he undoubtedly is!

  14. Morning all. As much as I might criticise US media over Trump’s many lies before he became the candidate, Aussie media has been less than stellar in scrutinising recent parliamentary aspirants. Cullerton’s finances look little better than Bob Day’s. Clearly micro parties are not vetting their candidates. This should be a valid line of attack at future elections. Between Day, Cullerton and Roberts, how can you trust Family First or One Nation to offer you a legitimate candidate?

  15. Zoidlord,
    Good morning, ya’all it’s been awhile. It seems the goverment has the wheels well and truely off, no great surprise there.

    Hi Zoidy!

    Yes, and right on cue (or is that Right on cue?), the Canberra Press Gallery are developing their arse-covering lines for Malcolm.

    Apparently, as the mostly honest Marius Benson said, yes the government looks chaotic. No, said Andrew Probyn, it’s just the ‘normal colour and movement that goes on in government in Canberra’.

    Words fail me.

  16. ** NSW’s torrens system is the envy of the world. Property title is the absolute bedrock of our society **
    And we all know where Torrens Title was developed?
    The locals here all like to brag about South Australia being the only state to not get any convicts. They should be bragging about inventing/implementing Torrens Title. And Colonel Light. And David Thorne.

  17. Ha! Pussy on Third Base. Trump’s pussy opponent is a lot healthier looking than Malcolm’s pussy is in the usual Rowe.
    David Rowe takes us to the World Series final.

  18. Hello Zoidlord! You are correct, Turnbull is so spooked by Abbott he has lost sight of governing the country. It is all reactionary stuff.

  19. I still don’t understand how Clinton isn’t blowing Trump away. Clinton, is pound for pound, no worse than the vast majority of US Democrats and vastly superior to pretty much all the Republicans. , and has significant prior experience in related areas. Trump is a buffoon who falls into the bottom ~3 of the Republican primary candidates who should be trusted with nukes, which is an achievement in and of itself, given how many of them do at least convincing impressions of Armageddon cultists, and who’s economic experience bears no resemblance to running a country (nor does he even appear to have been particularly good at it). And yet somehow it’s going to be a 2012 like result.

  20. Thanks BK. Regardng the La Trobe Valley, anyone who actually wants to see a solution to climate change, myself included, are celebrating the long overdue closure of Australia’s most polluting power station. Obviously the workers there need to find new jobs. None can pretend they did not expect this. The government cannor wave a wand, but can help. Cleaning up the mine and dismantling the power plant is needed and will employ people. Why not push for the NBN to be finished in Morwell early? And a TAFE is a more realistic long term solution, perhaps with course vouchers for displaced workers, because what they really need are new skills.

  21. E

    The reason is simple. Post truth media. Plus scorched earth by those not understanding its the neo liberal ideology of the GOP that brought about their lack of support now their jobs are disappearing.

    There is a reason most Sanders supporters are voting Clinton. For them she is heading in the right direction still a long way to go.

    For Trump supporters its all “crooked” Hillary fault as part of the corrupt establishment and only a billionaire can save them.

    The people that believe that follow media that are truly fact free zones.

  22. Like most other posters I feel shock that it is even possible that Trump might win the presidency. It is worse than Abbott, more like us electing Hanson or Day (Clive Palmer?) as PM.

    Elaugaufein is correct about the absence of Trump’s “business skills”, his only real skill being PR. There is further evidence of that just recently, and it was not manufactured by critics. Incidentally Trump’s partner is a Russian billionaire. Coincidence?

  23. Human Services Minister Alan Tudge’s speech pushing for a more punitive approach toward unemployed Australians should be grounds for his immediate dismissal, writes Owen Bennett.

    There aren’t many jobs where you can consistently misinform, manipulate and exploit your employers and get rewarded for it. But following his speech at the Sydney Institute last week, Human Services Minister Alan Tudge joined this coveted club. Considering that the Minister is directly responsible for the wellbeing of half of Australian households, this is a frightening development.

    Since the Coalition was elected three years ago, the number of financial penalties imposed on unemployed workers has increased 20 per cent and the number of payment suspensions has increased a staggering three and a half times. Stories of job agency abuse have become commonplace, while complaints against agencies have reached unprecedented levels. The industry is in chaos.

  24. I think the Democrats will win the Senate. Don’t forget the people that are anti establishment voting for Trump are likely to vote against the incumbents in the Senate.

    The Senate has a GOP majority so they will suffer as incumbents.

  25. Socrates
    TAFE is good but skills in just WHAT? If it is the service sector then that will mean relocation because by definition the service sector follows the people who follow the jobs.

    The Victorian government needs to be brave and actually FUND some manufacturing of SOMETHING we can sell to the world. It might be food processing or maybe something medical or vet related, where we have some advantages still. But anyone who relies on the service sector to “recover” lacks logical comprehension of economic reality.

  26. Socrates,
    Re the Hazelwood workers. There was a sad story on 7.30 last night about one such worker who was retrenched from EnergyBriq(?) in the Latrobe Valley previously. He had taken all the courses that had been offered to him and retrained. He has 6 kids to support. All he has been able to get at the end of it has been bits of work here and there. It seems that the sort of skills that these workers are seeing as viable options for the future, ie one’s they can complete and see a future in, are also the ones that everyone else who is being made redundant from Manufacturing and Production jobs are seeing as alternatives.

    It’s not Rocket Science to see this as an almost inevitable outcome of the Deindustrialisation of Heavy Industry process going on in the Australian Economy. And not all of the workers are able to go on to become Rocket Scientists or Brain Surgeons either. So we are seeing a glut of workers all chasing the same semi-skilled jobs.

    Which doesn’t even take into account all the 457 Visa workers being imported to work in our petrol stations and 7-11s. Jobs that these people would have normally devolved into.

  27. The industry is in chaos.

    Nope. Nope. Nope. Just the ‘normal colour and movement of a government going about it’s business’ apparently.

  28. The transition for Hazelwood workers should have started at least a couple of years ago.

    I am happy however that the closure has come with a French company doing the right thing and that the State and Federal governments are doing real contributions to helping the workers.

    This has been on the cards for a while and all should have planned for it. The closure is a good thing for the planet Australia and the La Trobe valley long term as pollution ceases.

  29. Privatising LTO
    ** And just wait for the incompetence that privatisation will breed **
    It would be interesting to see the details. The State must compensate for errors or fraud in the system if someone doesnt ‘have’ the land that is on their title. Will this liability fall to the private company or stay with the State? Can the State legally transfer this liability? I hope the contract will protect the State (giggles).

  30. Dtt
    Yes people DO need to relocate out of the valley! No, sorry, funding manufacturing would be lunacy. That is 19th century thinking. It is not economic in high wage countries and will die as soon as the government money stops. Too many labour people still cling to that false hope. Manufacture what exactly? The only sort of manufacturing that has a viable future in Australia is either highly automated (so few people employed) or highly skilled. Get those workers to learn a new trade, not all the same one, or you are sentencing them to permanent marginalisation.

  31. Socrates

    Exactly why I support a universal basic income. There are always going to be some people who cannot either work or who are low skilled and will have no jobs to do as automation gathers pace.

  32. For the sake of Simon et all I will try to keep this short and dumbed down. Issues in US election (as I suspect the ordinary people see them):
    1. The ecnomy – the FU “grenade” of Michael Moore. Trump is Whelan the wrecker. Not expected to build but employed to wreck. Clinton is the painter who will plaster over the termite damage.
    2. Immigration – Trump’s wall is EXACTLY the same as our boats policy. Labor and Liberal embrace with passion here. Why expect USA to be different.
    3. Foreign Policy – While Trump is a nutter with no experience, Clinton is sane but has ALWAYS made bad calls. Possibly (or maybe just for peaceniks) there really is a wish to pull back from conflict – especially in the ME and Europe.
    4. Race relations – this is a silent and nasty one – I am not sure how it plays out but I think it does matter.

  33. C@tmomma
    I agree. Those workers will not be engineers or scientists. Nor will they all be chefs. There is no one answer (and in my experience neither labour nor liberal policy advisors ever have credible answers to this question) but I would say “do what is needed”. Different things will appeal to different people. We have a shortage of aged care nurses. We need NBN cable installers(!) and so on. Hence a general (multi strand) TAFE with course vouchers will help. Nothing will solve the whole problem.

    Would encourage relevant policy apparatchiks to read the social history of this place, to understand the futility of propping up manufacturing.

    I do feel a little but sorty for the younger workers, but lots of people have to change jobs at some stage. The worst thing for them would be to pretend they do not have to. Now its their turn. Have a good day all.

  34. I’m as much a peacenik as the next person (and am more skeptical of the claimed moral good of unquestionable US hegemony than most) and Trump’s wild inconsistency on every other position he’s held and impulsiveness don’t exactly fill me with confidence for his foreign policy not including wars in the next 4 years.

  35. Socrates

    I have not time to post it now but I have given a lot of thought to the whole manufacturing dilemma and I am quite sure that an economy reliant on the tertiary sector is an economy certain to collapse and become one where WE send people overseas to be the house cleaners in China or Singapore. At the very best we are a tourist destination – barmaids and bellboys – low paid, low status jobs – like Spain’s Manuel of Faulty Towers.

    Education – the “saviour” is vulnerable to the whims of the Chinese government or Indian sentiment. China NEEDS our coal and iron, but it does not NEED our sub standard, high fee, toilet paper degrees. We however do NEED cloths, shoes, cars and computers but with what will we buy them?

  36. E

    There is not much doubt that Clinton will win.

    As I stated above I think that the Dems will win the Senate. So I see a President that will be able to work on domestic policy who has good foreign policy experience and will at least understand what the power structures are and who has learnt what a power vacuum is through the Libya fiasco.

  37. ‘For the sake of Simon et all I will try to keep this short and dumbed down.’

    Well how very considerate of you. Not that you are a wanker or anything.

    Great New Matilda article. Of course you will hear little to nothing of this in the MSM.

  38. DTT
    What are you smoking ? Our degrees are not sub standard nor high fee and thus not toilet paper. There’s actual things like international standards for degree equivalence and university rankings in education and research that back this up. That’s particularly the case in relation to the Indo-Asian area where there’s a lot of Diploma Mills that don’t get international recognition. That education also leads to things like the CSIRO being able to have staff who develop things like Wifi (which is as I understand it in pretty high demand in various place).

  39. One comment by Andrews IIRC was that some power industry workers at other sites could take redundancy and leave vacancies for the younger Hazelwood ones. I have read that this was the plan in Germany over several years. Seems sensible.

    This week, both the Federal and Victorian State Governments announced a pool of $80 million dollars to address the point. But both governments have missed the point of a national strategy completely.

    There’s an opportunity to keep many of those people in the region and in the industry with a package that offers workers in existing power stations an opportunity to retire, and thus free up positions for those people who need to stay in the sector.

  40. Elau
    In the medium to long term you are rights but in the short term ie next year you are wrong.
    The Syrian (and Ukraine) conflicts are current flashpoints and few could argue that there is a very real chance of a “hottish” (ie planes of both sides being shot down and some troops “accidentally” attacked) conflict between USA and Russia. While the actual likelihood of such a hottish conflict escalating to a real HOT conflict ie declared war, may be small it is NOT negligible. Obviously once again there is a chance that a HOT war could go nuclear.

    You can argue and have giggle fits (most of PB) over trying top put numbers on this BUT put simplistically re the next year:

    Chance of Hottish conflict
    under Clinton – High – also most certain
    under Trump – Low – medium
    Chance of Hottish conflict going Hot ie warships being shot at
    under Clinton – Low -Medium
    under Trump – Low
    Chance of Hot conflict going Nuclear
    under Clinton – Miniscule
    under Trump – Miniscule – tiny.

  41. Elau
    Our uni fees are HIGH for international students
    Sorry but the courses studied by many internationals are very sub standard. I know of one guy who last year could not write an essay of the standard of an Australian 10 year old, but still is passing a uni course.

  42. DTT

    From the Newsweek article just so you cannot ignore this.

    Clinton meant exporting oil and gas to allies who are heavily reliant on Russian imports. The Democratic nominee’s private positions on energy, as indicated in speeches released by WikiLeaks in October, suggest how she might use America’s oil and gas industry as a bludgeon against Moscow. While her campaign declined to comment for this story, her speeches also made it clear that Clinton wants the U.S. to lead an environmentally friendly energy revolution to tackle climate change.

Comments Page 1 of 27
1 2 27

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *