Presidential election tracker: Clinton 48.0, Trump 45.0

With just a few days to go, the latest presidential election polling suggests the recent turn in favour of Donald Trump may have passed its peak.

The last two days of national polling have taken some of the edge off the recent turn against Hillary Clinton, who is now projected with a lead of 48.0% to 45.0%, compared with 47.1% to 45.3% in the previous post two days ago. This causes North Carolina to move back into the Clinton column, and leaves Donald Trump hanging by a thread to Florida and Nevada. See here for the latest map display of the results detailed below.


State Margin Swing EV
Alabama Safe 9
Alaska Trump 10.6 3.4 3
Arizona Trump 2.7 6.4 11
Arkansas Trump 21.9 1.8 6
California Clinton 21.6 1.5 55
Colorado Clinton 2.5 2.9 9
Connecticut Safe 7
D.C. Safe 3
Delaware Clinton 18.1 0.5 3
Florida Trump 0.2 1.1 29
Georgia Trump 6.1 1.7 16
Hawaii Safe 4
Idaho Trump 21.4 10.5 4
Illinois Clinton 13.3 3.6 20
Indiana Trump 10.2 0.0 11
Iowa Trump 2.5 8.3 6
Kansas Trump 18.4 3.3 6
Kentucky Safe 8
Louisiana Trump 15.3 1.9 8
Maine Clinton 6.3 9.0 4
Maryland Clinton 33.4 7.3 10
Massachusetts Clinton 25.5 2.4 11
Michigan Clinton 4.5 5.0 16
Minnesota Clinton 7.2 0.5 10
Mississippi Safe 6
Missouri Trump 11.4 2.0 10
Montana Trump 15.5 1.9 3
Nebraska Trump 19.1 2.7 5
Nevada Trump 0.5 7.2 6
New Hampshire Clinton 2.4 3.2 4
New Jersey Clinton 11.3 6.5 14
New Mexico Clinton 6.5 3.7 5
New York Clinton 20.9 7.3 29
North Carolina Clinton 0.0 2.0 15
North Dakota Safe 3
Ohio Trump 3.4 6.4 18
Oklahoma Safe 7
Oregon Clinton 6.4 5.7 7
Pennsylvania Clinton 4.0 1.4 20
Rhode Island Clinton 21.8 5.7 4
South Carolina Trump 8.4 2.1 9
South Dakota Trump 14.2 3.8 3
Tennessee Trump 14.2 6.2 11
Texas Trump 9.3 6.5 38
Utah Trump 9.8 38.2 6
Vermont Clinton 25.5 10.1 3
Virginia Clinton 5.5 1.6 13
Washington Clinton 13.3 1.6 12
West Virginia Safe 5
Wisconsin Clinton 4.8 2.1 10
Wyoming Safe 3

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

38 comments on “Presidential election tracker: Clinton 48.0, Trump 45.0”

  1. Thanks William. You have been more willing to state the situation than anate Silver lately. Quite a relief to see Trump’s FBI scam driven recovery halted. He cannot win without Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

  2. Socrates
    I shre your hopes that Trump is thumped. However I dispute your assumption that William ,or Nate Silver can ‘state’ the ‘situation. All they can do is interpret polls, given assumptions about how much weight to give disparate results. Brexit recently, and Truman vs Dewey long ago are good warnings about this.
    I remain alarmed about the situation in Congress. . Unless the Demd win the senate, then the Yanks will be faced with a situation as bad as that faced by the last pre civil war President.. Buchanan. I watched some of Planet America and was appalled by what some of the Repugs interviewed had to say. They face with equanimity the prospect of a grid locked Govt! These weren’t supporters of Trump either.
    In 1856 America was a nullity on the world stage, and the Civil War was only a blip as far as the rest were concerned. But now, the prospect of the worlds greatest poer being reduced to impotence fills me with a dread that even DTT would find it hard to match. Imagine a world dominated by the Putins of this planet

  3. Gippslander

    By and large all types of poll predictions are just that but some are usually better than others – and this comes from comparing the pre and post position. Over the years here on PB, not only does William show us his reasoning for why he comes up with his figures – which is more than many pollsters do – he has been for some years, closer in his summation of actual outcomes than most. I think this track record speaks for itself. In this current 48-45 situation, there is an implied “all other things being equal” thread. Polls are not dictum but many are in advance of looking at the entrails of chooks, which used to pass as polling once upon a time.

  4. Granted that people have been voting for the last week or so and this has according to some, been the largest US early vote turnout on record, there is a good chance the result for Clinton will be better in many states than the polls indicate on election day.

  5. I’m predicting a better result for Clinton in Florida and North Carolina than the polls indicate. I think she will also almost certainly win Nevada. There will be no upsets. Remember when states like Georgia and even Texas seemed within grasp? Hilarious. Anyway if that happens this will be the final breakdown.

    I think this is the most likely scenario. A very large, but not astounding victory for Clinton. Nowhere near enough to hand the Democrats congress.

    If Florida and North Carolina go to Trump it will give him a massive 45 electoral votes, but that still isn’t anywhere near what he needs to become president.

  6. FYI, even if Trump wins all three currently questionable states, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida, he will still only just miss out on securing the presidency. Done and dusted.

  7. Lets say some new development happens in the next few days and throw New Hampshire to Trump too, which Dems hold by a small margin. Even then it will be a 269 – 269 tie, so Trump is several states away from victory.

  8. In summation, Trump needs a sudden surge in popularity to become president and the polls are instead indicating that he has reached a plateau.

  9. There is a campaign to Write In Bernie Sanders in the states where his permission is not needed to run electors promising to vote for him. One of these states is Vermont, his home state. He might win that.

  10. Cross-post from another thread:

    There is a very real possibility of a 269-269 electoral college tie if Trump wins the 4 most closely contested states i.e. North Carolina, Florida, Nevada and New Hampshire. This is theoretically made worse by the chance of a third-party candidate from ether side of the political spectrum winning an electoral college vote or two.

    Here’s a few articles about what could happen in the event of an electoral college tie, which as I described above is a totally legitimate and surprisingly likely possibility given the states where the race is closest and the number of electoral votes they each possess.

    So there is a slim chance the answer to Trump Vs Clinton is McMullin?! Or a Trump presidency with Tim Kaine as Vice-president. Can you even imagine?

    Even worse, in the event of a faithless elector writing in some completely random presidential candidate there is a chance that the house of reps, which is controlled by the republicans, but largely anti-Trump could elect that person president.


    What are the chances of the electors in a state that is strongly republican, but anti-trump writing in someone who lost the nomination like Jeb Bush and congress electing him president?

    The electoral college tie is truly a nightmare scenario.

  11. Write in Candidates have to have a list or registered electors in a state to be able to have their votes counted. 9 states do not allow write in candidates.

    Interestingly 11 state allow slates of electors to nominate candidates for president and vice president without the candidates permission, which Sanders Supporters are using in those states to try and get him some electors to try and make him president. Vermont is the best chance for that.

    The best chance for a non Trump Republican-type is ex-Republican turned independent candidate Evan McMullin, who has a chance in Utah (he is a local and a Mormon and lots of Mormons have not taken well to Trump). He has a reasonable chance of denying Trump an outright electoral college victory, in the event that Clinton get bellow 269 votes.

  12. Unfortunately for those Sanders supporters even if Sanders manages to secure an electoral vote or two and neither Trump or Clinton get to 270 there is very little chance of a Republican controlled congress electing him president. A Sanders presidency is basically the GOP’s worst nightmare. Better a demagogue than a socialist.

  13. If the Democrats plus the Sanders writ in campaign are a majority, then Clinton could resign and Sanders is then the Democratic nominee and then has a majority.

    If McMullin gets Utah and him plus Trump get half or more, with no majority for Trump alone, then there it gets very strategically complicated with any Sanders supporting Democratic Electors (if indeed any were able to get in) incentivised to vote for Sanders to get him into third place, because only the top 3 are able to be elected by Congress and thus strategic faithless voting is incentivised. Clinton supporting Democratic Electors (but only some of them, but not a specific some) being incentivised to back McMullin to 3rd place (to split the republicans in Congress), anti-Trump republican electors incentivised to also get McMullin to 3rd place and pro-Trump electors incentivised to get Bernie to 3rd place to reduce the chances of a republican split (but again only some of them, but not a specific some).

    Effectively, if the Electoral College result is inconclusive in any way other than a 269-269 tie, the Electoral College will come under lots of justified political pressure for reform.

  14. I feel like there will be mass outrage if anyone other than Clinton or Trump is elected president given the amount of cynicism towards the political process in the US at the moment.

  15. I agree that there will be outrage if anyone other than Clinton or Trump is elected and that will be rather justified. However Trump and many of his supporters will try for outrage if Clinton wins and there is a chance that Trump could win but Clinton win the popular vote and that would cause some outrage as well.

    As I wrote before, “Effectively, if the Electoral College result is inconclusive in any way other than a 269-269 tie, the Electoral College will come under lots of justified political pressure for reform.”.

  16. Dems chances of winning a majority in senate just took a dive. HRC stabilising, but no rebounding. Not looking good for Dems. No, not good at all.

  17. If the electoral college vote is inconclusive, the decision is made by ‘state delegations’ in the house, NOT the electoral college delegates. GOP currently control 33 of 50 such states, the only way they would lose that majority is in the event of a Dem landslide (meaning Clinton would have won on electoral votes anyway). So anything other than Clinton getting an outright win in the electoral college vote will mean Trump wins. There is no possibility of McMullin or Sanders supporters in the Electoral College getting their candidate elected, the most they can do is deny Clinton an EV win, thereby giving it to Trump.

  18. It’s currently looking like it could be a tie in the senate, with the VP casting the deciding vote that means Dems will still control Senate if they secure the presidency.


    I am suggesting that, once which candidates` electors won are known, there will be incentive for electors to turn faithless, to determine who gets to be an option for the House.

    There are a lot of Republicans in Congress who do not like Trump. Some of them may back McMullin instead (especially those in Utah, if he wins there) and this may stop Trump winning, at least for a while.

  20. Actually the Democrats do not needs the presidency to get the Senate, when it is tied, only the Vice Presidency. If the Electoral does not elect a Vice President, then a tied Senate would have a casting vote by Biden to elect Kane and then the Democrats have the numbers in the Senate for 2 years, even if Trump or McMullin is President.

  21. It was self-indulgent of a small majority of Democrats to nominate such a weak candidate. I hope this election will prove to be a salutary lesson for the Democratic Party. In in a year when the public is disgusted by status quo politics it was incredibly stupid to put up an ethically bankrupt friend of Wall Street who bears a policy agenda that helps nobody except a small elite and whose husband uses his charitable foundation to drum up tens of millions of dollars worth of consultancy and speaking gigs for himself while his wife is Secretary of State.

  22. Yes Tom, in an electoral college tie, however I meant that the senate will likely be tied in the sense that it will have an even split of democrats (and democrat sympathetic independents e.g. Sanders) and republicans regardless of how the presidential vote plays out. Tim Kaine could end up being one of the most crucially important VP’s in recent history.

    Although the chance of neither candidate reaching 270 is I think better than many people think and it’s interesting to think about, it’ also still a pretty slim chance as it relies on a number of things happening.

    Not least of which is someone stealing an electoral vote from Trump. I’ve come to accept now that Trump will probably win an electoral vote in Maine which means that if he wins NV, NC, FL and NH the end result will be:

    HRC 268 – Trump 270

  23. HRC needs to win just one of these states to win the presidency, barring any massive upsets, which are extremely unlikely, but then again, Brexit.

  24. Nicholas seems to think that Hillary Clinton is bankrupt on policy – apart, of course, from tackling climate change, raising minimum wages, extending Obama-care, protecting women’s rights and fighting xenophobia.
    Hillary is finishing strongly but unless she has a Senate majority she will not have a lot to look forward to. The Dems have to replace Harry Reid in Nevada and win four Senate places currently held by Republicans.

    Illinois looks OK, Pennsylvania is promising, Wisconsin and Indiana are on the edge, and New Hampshire, North Carolina and Missouri are chances.

    If the Dems were to pick up an extra four senators for a 50-50 tie in the Senate, VP Tim Kaine would have the casting vote. But his vacated Virginia senate spot will be up for grabs later next year. And the Dems will have a really tough task to hang on to half a dozen senators in red states in mid-term elections in two years.

  25. There is certainly going to be a serious comparison of polling in this election. Huffington Post still have 5.3% Clinton National lead, NYT has 2.4% and RCP has 1.7%. The difference in part is NYT does not seem to include LA Times polls – which have been way Trump aligned and Huff Post don’t seem to include both LA Times and Rasmussen – which is also seen as a significantly pro GOP poll. Electoral-Vote seems not to use mational polling but concentrate on sate polling but previously had a No Rasmussen assessment as well. And WB is in there with about 3%.

  26. Hillary Clinton’s record on workers’ rights is poor:

    two years ago, Clinton was asked to support Walmart workers fighting for increased pay. Clinton didn’t respond. Her advisers conferred in emails, leaked by Wikileaks, and concluded their call for solidarity could safely be ignored. In October 2015, Clinton was again asked for solidarity with Walmart workers. Again, she ignored them.
    We also have the internal deliberations of her advisers on the campaign for the minimum wage in the US to be increased to $15 an hour. Clinton opposes this campaign. She supports a $12 federal minimum wage. I suspect there are few Australians on the left who think our minimum wage should be $12 an hour.

  27. Clinton merely demonstrates an old concept in human existence towards building dynasties.
    It never ceases to amaze me the tendency among the ruling classes to believe that just because mum or dad happened to strike it lucky in politics (or maybe brother or sister) that others in the family must have something intrinsically in their psyche to make them natural political leaders. The Clintons are no different to the Bush family, the Kennedys and a host of others. The Churchills, of course, in the UK are very good examples. We have our Beazleys, Downers, Abetze’s, Courts et al. This lot either get into public office themselves of marry those who are or will be in public office. The problem is that many of those who are part of this self-perpetuating class are duds.
    The fact that HRC, for example, may not be the ideal role model for the left is immaterial. She is in the game because she is part of the class. In that respect, Trump certainly breaks the mould and may explain why many support him even though he is such a crap individual.

  28. Looking at Silver’s poll tracker now (a lot of polls have come in over the weekend) and Trump’s recent momentum has clearly stalled short of victory. CLinton hasn’t actually lost voters, more that undecided republicans have felt justified by the email “scandal” (of the FBI alleging it!) to finally vote republican as they always wanted to,e ben though the republican candidate has dished almost every founding principle of the GOP.

    Anyway, you can see the graph flatten out fairly clearly.

    Many other US poll analysts (how that community has grown since Poll Bludger started!) think Silver’s methods overstate Trump’s potential chances. They do not take into account votes already cast, strength of ground operations, and do not exclude outliers. Overall Trump is very unlikely to win (and a tie is even less likely than that). The real question is if the Democrats will also win the Senate, and that is about 60/40.

  29. Tricot
    Not being a politician is certainly one of Trump’s marketing strategies. I am still amazed it has worked so well though, because he has a very privileged background from a wealthy family, with family connections launching him into his father’s industry of construction and real estate. His background is far more privileged than the Clintons, for example. I support that is why he targets “low information voters”.

  30. An interesting article here from the Washington Post on early voting trends. These seem to be favourable to Republicans overall. In Florida the Democrat lead in early voting has fallen from 146,000 in 2008 to 7,200 as of Saturday, in NC from 307,000 to 243,000 (earlier last week) and in Ohio from 140,000 in 2012 to 70,000 (a couple days ago). In Nevada where early voting has concluded the Democrat lead fell slightly from 48,000 to 45,000, but in this case its good news for them because they won that state by nearly 7% in 2012 so the Republicans would have wanted to do much better.
    The focus on increased Hispanic early voting may be misplaced as it’s actually only keeping pace with population trends and is less than the increase for whites in most states. In North Carolina, the Black % of early voters was down from 28% in 2012 to 22% earlier last week, in a state Obama LOST by 2%, so I can’t see how they can win it this time unless something really dramatic happens with the White vote or their turnout dramatically increases on election day. In Florida the Hispanic vote is up the most of all the racial groups (103% as of Saturday) but the White early vote is up by 41%, from a much larger base. The Black vote is up too but by only by 13% so their proportion of the electorate will shrink by 3-4 %, which is bad news for Clinton.

  31. For any that missed it Nate Silver has put up in his podcast three documentaries on presidential elections past.

    The Real Dean Scream about the rise and fall of Dean against Kerry in the primaries. Obama/Wright about the Obama campaign and Presidency and then the most interesting the Perot the Spoiler about the 92 campaign.

    Perot got 19 million votes. No campaign on the ground network dropping in and out of the election. Looking at that Trump appears to be the inheritor of Perot. Very familiar themes we have seen with Trump even though Perot was optimistic not the hate fest Trump is.

    Points to the danger in the future when Trump loses as it appears today that he will do.

  32. Trump’s recent momentum has clearly stalled short of victory

    WB addressed this some time ago. “Trump’s ceiling is below Clinton’s floor”, or something along those lines. Truer words were never spoken.

    I am still amazed it has worked so well though

    I’m not. People hate politicians, and the establishment (on both sides of politics) tends to exist only to perpetuate itself. Convincing people to vote against it is easy.

    I’m amazed that the strategy has worked so well for someone as awful as Trump, however. And also amazed that a less awful candidate didn’t come forward to be nominated as the standard-bearer for anti-establishment change.

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