BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

One new poll on voting intention and one on leadership ratings find the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintaining its recent boring form.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has provided remarkably little excitement since it resumed two months ago, with the two-party preferred reading never moving more than a few fractions of a point away from 52-48 in favour of Labor, and the seat projections never changing at any stage, either in aggregate or at the state level. This week is no exception, the only new addition being a lightly weighted result from Essential Research. The Roy Morgan results that were reported in the previous post have been added to the leadership ratings, without effecting any change worth mentioning.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. H
    I was trying to pin it down and was thinking maybe an underfed Billy Bunter crossed with a bit of Adrian Mole.
    But I like Sebastian Flyte. It is spooky stuff.

  2. Bingo!
    11h11 hours ago
    John ‏@linnyitssn
    Dick Cheney (made 39.5 billion by killing a million Iraqis) supporters are pissed off that Hillary won’t be executed over sending an email.

  3. “The climate science is a constantly evolving science” says IPA head.

    Yeah, it’s constantly evolving to show the increasingly warming trend!

    Seriously why is the ABC giving this kind of crank view a platform?

  4. Hi all, here I am to annoy you again.

    Now, I think you guys and gals should give up this birth certificate thing about Tony Abbott. YOu are being just like Donald Trump with the “birther” thing in regard to Mr Obama. In the end D. Trump gave it up, because it’s nonsense and petty and somewhat nasty and he completely put that aside a while ago. Because it’s stupid.

    Just saying.

  5. The issue of dual citizenship here is not the equivalent of birtherism. The US constitution prohibits people not ‘natural born citizens’ from ever being president. Nothing to be done. It is a silly provision, but it’s a simple one, and the implications are simple and set in stone.

    Our constitution prevents people being MPs if they owe any loyalty to another country. Anyone who is or has been a citizen of another country is quite able to become a federal MP here – all they have to do is renounce their other citizenship. It’s not an onerous set-in-stone requirement. It mainly comes down to laziness (or actual attachment to the foreign power!) if a person fails to meet this criterion.

    If Abbott (or anyone else) did not renounce his UK citizenship before becoming an Australian federal MP it’s a sign of either laziness, incompetence or thinking that the rules simply didn’t apply to him.

  6. Surely there is a statement of sole allegiance included in an oath of office?

    I know there are some odd cases where the other country may not legally support renouncing citizenship. I’m not sure of the law in these cases but in my opinion the renunciation should be sufficient with no requirement to have it validated by the other nation. Any evidence of such an MP taking advantage of their involuntary status as a citizen of the other country would support a ruling that they forfeit their eligibility to sit in parliament I guess.

  7. Or is Patterson a sucubus? I get my – buses mixed up.

    Dont know that BW’s issues with public transport are relevant ……but know fer sure that Patterson is a nasty little IPA twit. 🙁

  8. Great day in the morning! : )


    The electorate just want someone with a half decent, with the emphasis on ‘decent’, agenda to lead them.

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