BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

One new poll on voting intention and one on leadership ratings find the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintaining its recent boring form.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has provided remarkably little excitement since it resumed two months ago, with the two-party preferred reading never moving more than a few fractions of a point away from 52-48 in favour of Labor, and the seat projections never changing at any stage, either in aggregate or at the state level. This week is no exception, the only new addition being a lightly weighted result from Essential Research. The Roy Morgan results that were reported in the previous post have been added to the leadership ratings, without effecting any change worth mentioning.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. Sanity prevails in the Senate. Never thought I’d say that with the flotsam and jetsam currently occupying the Senate benches!

  2. poroti,
    I’m actually very interested in the down ballot contests and to see whether the Dems regain control of the Senate. Also I am hoping that the Republicans suffer enough blowback by voters who have correctly perceived their dysfunctionality and divided nature to vote them out in the various State contests.

  3. Not happy camper

    “A government MP has launched a blistering attack on coalition colleagues for “cuddling” up to One Nation, singling out outspoken MP George Christensen for criticism.

    Russell Broadbent used a late-night speech to parliament to call out the Nationals MP and Pauline Hanson’s party, saying Australia must rise above the politics of fear and rhetoric that encouraged division.

    Mr Broadbent criticised Senator Hanson’s maiden speech labelling as “bogus” the claim that Australia was in danger of being swamped by Muslims.”


  4. Don

    The defeated Bill can be reintroduced in 3 month stime, and if it fails to pass the Senate again, becomes a trigger for a double disolution election

  5. Oh they can certainly try again to get the plebiscite legislation through, as many times as they like. But we can certainly now say their won’t be a plebiscite in February 2017.

  6. Am I the only person who found Watson’s bio of Keating turgid?
    I’ve tried reading it half a dozen times but have given up after up to 100 pages at best.
    Now that’s verbose.

  7. sprocket_ @ #1262 Monday, November 7, 2016 at 9:49 pm

    The defeated Bill can be reintroduced in 3 months time, and if it fails to pass the Senate again, becomes a trigger for a double dissolution election

    Thanks Sprocket, much appreciated. Is it likely that it will be reintroduced in three months time, or are the political winds such that it will be quietly forgotten about by the government, possibly with a sigh of relief?

  8. Don:

    The govt could try re-introducing it again, but why? The desired effect has been achieved: marriage equality dead, buried and cremated for this parliament anyways.

  9. Listening to Liberal liars misrepresenting the HRC and the Racial Discrimination Act. Paterson and Downer are such lousy skunks.

  10. Indigenous slavery in Western Australia may form the basis of a class action on unpaid wages in the state, a lawyer says.

    The action — launched by the uncle of prominent activist Noel Pearson in Queensland earlier this year — may be expanded into WA, and name both the State Government and companies that benefited from unpaid wages arrangements with Aboriginal people, Shine lawyers’ Jan Saddler said.

    One of the people quoted in the article, Lester Coyne is a man I know and respect.

  11. Boerwar:

    Unpaid wages to indigenous Australians has been a festering sore for quite a while now. I don’t blame those affected and their descendants for wanting just recompense.

  12. IMO, tonight’s Q&A is not nearly as good as last week’s, even though last week’s panel consistently mainly of relatively inarticulate regional folk. They were much better at cutting to the chase.
    Tonight’s mob mostly like to hear their own voice warble on and on.

  13. H
    He did not specify.
    His alternative career choice was getting whipped for running away from the stock camp. He tried that once as a teenager, got whipped, wore the marks on his back, and went for the softer lolly option.

  14. Laura Tingle on the govt’s approach to Day’s woes and the Cullerton matter:

    Cormann told the Senate at “at no point did I received any advice” the arrangements could be a potential breach of section 44 of the Constitution (which is the matter the High Court is now expected to be asked to consider).

    And one suspects the Coalition thought it might all go away since Day wasn’t regarded as all that likely to be returned.

    But it did not seek legal advice on the matter until August, when Ryan and Cormann informed the prime minister that there might be a problem.

    Similarly, while Pauline Hanson abandoned Culleton suggesting he had misled her, there is plenty of evidence that One Nation was warned that there were multiple reasons Culleton was not a viable candidate for the Senate.

    Now both the Coalition and One Nation’s political positions are damaged. And the High Court has some very complex questions to consider in both cases.

    Meanwhile, Culleton has dealt himself back in to an increasingly complex game of horse trading in the Senate. With Day gone, the negotiating power of every cross bencher has been increased.

    It is feeding a frenzy of demands for deals on Section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, restrictions on imported building products, protection for building industry customers, amendments to the backpacker tax and paid parental leave.

    It is not a parliamentary year that is going to end well.

    Read more:
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    And it makes the govt look even more lazy for its lack of curiosity, as Tingle asserts. Honestly, we are so poorly served by this mob.

  15. Anyone feeling ripped off?

    [Former prime minister Tony Abbott has weighed into the resurfaced election campaign issue of marriage equality, claiming Australians will feel “ripped off” if MPs refuse to back legislation to allow a plebiscite on same-sex marriage in Parliament.]

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