BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

One new poll on voting intention and one on leadership ratings find the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintaining its recent boring form.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has provided remarkably little excitement since it resumed two months ago, with the two-party preferred reading never moving more than a few fractions of a point away from 52-48 in favour of Labor, and the seat projections never changing at any stage, either in aggregate or at the state level. This week is no exception, the only new addition being a lightly weighted result from Essential Research. The Roy Morgan results that were reported in the previous post have been added to the leadership ratings, without effecting any change worth mentioning.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

  1. Bemused’
    IVF?
    Not a hope in Hell. Natural means just like Adam and Eve did it six thousand years ago when the dinosaurs walked the earth along with cattle, sheep and Jehovy wrote The Book of Mormon.

  2. Lizzie,
    With cucumber sandwich. And a sandwich is a thin slice of filling between two thinly sliced slices of bread. And ketchup will be banned. Only Worcestershire allowed, or English chutney.

  3. Puff

    A final irritation, I actually heard reporter on ABC say “the refugee camp at C’llaay”, and had no idea what they meant until I heard an American say C’llaay, and realised they meant Calais. I suppose said reporter had only heard it on American TV.

    Night.

  4. Well this could be fun…. 😆

    Hinch wants proof of Abbott citizenship

    Tony Abbott’s eligibility to be in parliament could come under the spotlight if the Senate supports a review sought by independent senator Derryn Hinch.

    Senator Hinch flagged the inquiry during a debate on Monday on referring former Family First senator Bob Day’s eligibility to the High Court.

    While Mr Day’s case relates to whether he received a financial benefit from the commonwealth, Senator Hinch told parliament he was concerned about another point of ineligibility – dual citizenship.

    “I foreshadow I will lodge a notice of motion that there should be a review of all senators’ and members’ eligibility based on their citizenship at the time they were elected this year and at previous elections,” Senator Hinch said.

    Although he did not specifically mention Mr Abbott on Monday, the Victorian senator wrote an article on his blog in August questioning the former prime minister’s eligibility.

    Mr Abbott was born in England, held a British passport as a university student and has held an Australian passport since 1981.

    When the issue came up two years ago, Mr Abbott’s office issued a statement saying: “The prime minister is an Australian citizen and does not hold citizenship of any other country.”

    Senator Hinch said on his blog Mr Abbott should produce a dated copy of his British citizenship revocation, which would confirm whether it was revoked before his election as an MP in 1994.

    The issue of dual citizenship has claimed the seats of several members of parliament, including former One Nation senator Heather Hill, Liberal MP Jackie Kelly and Nuclear Disarmament Party senator Robert Wood.

    Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/11/07/17/14/hinch-wants-proof-of-abbott-citizenship#rZ6Sds5Ylq31BdIG.99

  5. I have said all along that in my honest opinion, Abbott would rather give up his ears before he gave up his UK citizenship.

  6. To be a Rhodes Scholar you can’t be a Pomgolian citizen. Apparently Tones’ parents sent off the appropriate paperwork to fix up his status before he then applied for the Rhodes.

    Poor Tones would have been devastated to no longer be on of , as Cecil said…. 🙂

    Cecil Rhodes.”Remember that you are an Englishman, and have consequently won first prize in the lottery of life.

  7. Lizzie @4.52pm

    I do hope you did the suggested count before you declared my comment “over the top”.

    Or is it just that the teflon one can say whatever she likes here, and no-one is permitted to call it out?

  8. Cullerton’s conviction was not for merely stealing a $7 key.

    It was for taking possession of the key of the tow truck, legitimately attempting to re-possess he’s vehicle which he had not paid for.

    He was in essence doing what he could to keep a car which was not his.

    Quite similar to Day in fact ……. manipulating the system to get goods and services and money belonging to others, for free.

  9. Afternoon all.

    How hilarious that a simple snarky remark about Rudd can so energise people’s emotions. I think some of you need to get off your computers and get outside in the fresh air more. It might give you a sense of perspective.

  10. Apparently Tones’ parents sent off the appropriate paperwork to fix up his status before he then applied for the Rhodes.

    Yes, I believe we went through all this back in the day when people were getting excited about the possibility of Abbott being an illegitimate MP. It all seemed at the time to be reminiscent of the claims of Obama being a Kenyan.

  11. Fess

    You can make as many antiRudd comments as you wish. The same applies to every other current or former Pollie. Dont see why Rudd needs special consideration. After all he is one of worst going around

  12. Victoria:

    It never ceases to amaze me how emotionally distraught some people can get when faced with material they disagree with. How on earth do they cope with everyday life? Or do they surround themselves only with people whose views they endorse? How boring. I disagree with a lot of crap that gets posted here, but life is too short to have a coronary over it. Yeesh.

  13. Just shows how ignorant Culleton et al are when it comes to the law. His demand for a trial by jury is simply laughable since it is a matter of interpretation of the Constitution not a criminal matter. He also has indicated that he will represent himself in the High Court. Well there is an old adage that says that a man who represents himself in court has a fool as his client.

  14. Vic:

    I meant to say the other day that I’ve really appreciated your posts of tweets about the US elections. I’ve managed to finagle Wed off work so I can tune into the election, but up until now your posts have been a great shorthand of unfolding commentary from the social media space. 🙂

  15. I just love the fact that Abbott was a grown man – well and truly over the age of 18 – and yet he needed Mummy And Daddy to sort out his Australian citizenship in order for him to be eligible for a Rhodes Scholarship.

    I wonder if the problem is that Mummy and Daddy didn’t realise he needed to actually renounce his British citizenship before entering parliament? Poor man child Abbott, being unable to organise a shag in a brothel, therefore neglected to do it in time. I have my money on him renouncing it between the 1994 by-election and 1996 general election.

    It wouldn’t surprise me at all to learn this is what happened – but I bet we won’t get to the truth until after Abbott has left the parliament.

  16. Ok, i had a look at this:

    http://www.senatormalcolmroberts.com.au/csiro-report

    Largely bunkum. More a political whinge than any kind of technical document.

    But i find it interesting how people use language, regardless of the content.

    One paragraph that struck me was:

    “In the spirit of the straight-talking Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen, and with the courage and strength of Pauline Hanson, our investigations of CSIRO’s claims and presentation confirm that:”

    Actual reverent worship of Hansen??

    To me, this guy is deep deep embedded in the fruiten loopen class. Bit scary really that the good people of QLD actually elected the twit.

  17. And seriously, this is total crap. J Edgar Comey alright. Grrrr!

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 13h13 hours ago
    What do you know, the FBI confirms nothing new in the emails…which means no charges etc. But damage done of course…

  18. Ashby wouldn’t benefit from Cullerton’s loss here, as it would be a disqualification not a causal vacancy, it would be resolved by a recount that’s effectively guaranteed to go to Cullerton’s brother in law.

    If any wanted Cullerton’s seat he’d want Cullerton to be found eligible and then disqualified by conviction or bankruptcy , which creates a casual vacancy.

  19. falconwa @ #1221 Monday, November 7, 2016 at 8:40 pm

    Just shows how ignorant Culleton et al are when it comes to the law. His demand for a trial by jury is simply laughable since it is a matter of interpretation of the Constitution not a criminal matter. He also has indicated that he will represent himself in the High Court. Well there is an old adage that says that a man who represents himself in court has a fool as his client.

    Sound like comic opera.
    Trial by jury.
    The judge’s song
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iae4va3NU-c

  20. Fess

    No worries. The home stretch of the US election has been nuts. I am looking forward to it being over, and Trump getting back to ripping off people from his businesses.

  21. Imacca:

    I remember we all lamented the election of that DLP guy to the Senate 6 years ago. But compared to some of the incumbents he was actually switched on.

  22. C@t:

    Reminiscent of the 2010 Oz campaign when Abbott did that 72 hour non-stop campaign?

    Besides, Trump is too busy anger-tweeting to spend time doing something sensible like sleep!

  23. I think the most telling and honest statement of the day came from Pauline Hanson, when in her irritated little girl voice she said to no one in particular but in general to the media who were shadowing her in parliament:
    “I’ve worked for 18 years to get back into this place!”

    Subtext: And Rod Culleton isn’t going to screw things up! He goes before I do.

  24. ‘Fess,
    The campaign have taken away Trump’s phone so he can’t Tweet up a new scandal in the home stretch.

    Taking away Twitter turned out to be an essential move by his press team, which deprived him of a previously unfiltered channel for his aggressions.

    Also he suffers from real feelings of inadequacy, getting jealous that Air Force One was bigger than his plane!

  25. The campaign have taken away Trump’s phone

    Oh LOL! I thought that was just a social media meme. How embarrassment that a Presidential candidate has to be babysat to such extremes as having his mobile confiscated! Hilarious.

  26. This BBC journo and his photographer travelling through Afganistan with a local leader is insanely brave.
    By rights they should be dead as an RPG lobbed within a few feet of where they were filming but did not explode.
    Extraordinary.

  27. David Sharaz
    32m32 minutes ago
    David Sharaz ‏@DavidSharaz
    4 speakers left on government’s plebiscite legislation. Looking likely it’ll come to a vote before tonight’s end. @SBSNews #auspol

  28. steven @ #1191 Monday, November 7, 2016 at 7:02 pm

    Darn
    Excellent 🙂
    Furthermore
    15. Subways will be hereafter referred to as the Tube or the Underground.
    16. Streetcars and trolleys will be known as trams.
    17. Railroads will be referred to as Railways e.g. Union Pacific RailWAY

    Good work, but confused by the reference to the metric system as the Pomes still use miles and I imagine there will be a strong push to revert back to imperial volume and weight measures once they leave Europe.

  29. Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@markdreyfusQCMP says Labor will not support an 18c Parliamentary inquiry but is open to HRC Act amendments. http://snpy.tv/2fv3tV2

    6

    Sky News Australia
    33m33 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@markdreyfusQCMP says the Govt delayed the Bob Day matter for their own

  30. C@Tmomma

    Vic,
    I’m looking forward to Wednesday

    Will a cake walk for Clinton. With non compulsory voting both sides saying OMGahd it is Close” efforts are the way to go and the meeja push it like hell because foregone conclusions don’t sell.

  31. henry @ #1242 Monday, November 7, 2016 at 9:15 pm

    This BBC journo and his photographer travelling through Afganistan with a local leader is insanely brave.
    By rights they should be dead as an RPG lobbed within a few feet of where they were filming but did not explode.
    Extraordinary.

    That’s for sure.
    But what of the Afghan guy who is there all the time going on jaunts like that?

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