Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Coalition drops a point on the Essential Research rolling average, while further questions record an across-the-board drop in confidence in a range of public institutions since last year.

The latest Essential Research fortnightly rolling aggregate result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after two weeks at 51-49, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team down one to 3%. Other questions find an across-the-board decline in trust towards a range of institutions since the question was last posed in October. At the top of the list are state and federal police, followed by the High Court and the ABC, while political parties take the wooden spoon, followed by business groups, state and federal parliaments, religious organisations and trade unions. A series of indicators involving personal wellbeing were reported as having improved over the past 50 years, while job security and political leadership had become much worse. A question on trust in handling personal information found either a lot of trust or some trust for security agencies (51%), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (46%) and banks (45%), compared with 20% for social media sites.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,806 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. GG

    Or of sex being irrelevant.

    It would be equally sexist of me to NOT draw attention to the faults in Nicole’s arguments because she is a female.

    As it is, I think that both women and men are equally capable of saying silly things and making statements which should be challenged.

  2. Kezza2,
    It’s okay to belittle folk who have a different opinion?
    Kezza, Nicole is not some precious petal unable to defend herself against valid criticism, and I think it’s more than a little bit patronising and demeaning of her for you to imply as much.

    And, fyi, before you start on me with your exemplary knowledge of Australian swear words, just step back and think about what it is that Nicole is actually achieving by her stance wrt the Census, but falling squarely on the shoulders of the poor, casual ABS employee. Your assessment, if it is objective, should agree with mine and roughly equate to 3/5 of bugger all at the end of the day.

  3. CATMOMMA. I have no idea why you want to be a bitch, but you seem to think you can revel in it; like everyone agrees with you; except they don’t. And you’re not some precious petal, either who has to make ends meet.

  4. c@tmomma @ #2602 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 7:27 pm
    Cat,
    Why treat the “poor” Census collector like a “precious petal unable to defend (himself) against (the side effects) of valid criticism” against the ABS?

    Zooming in on the fact a Census collector has been directed by his superiors to come back and making him out to be a victim (ridiculous) and me a perpetrator is hardly a valid argument. It’s nit-picking because there is no valid argument against me exercising my unalienable rights.

  5. ‘Zooming in on the fact a Census collector has been directed by his superiors to come back and making him out to be a victim (ridiculous) and me a perpetrator is hardly a valid argument.’

    Wow, the gymnastics you perform to avoid looking at the issue!

    If you fill in your form, he doesn’t have to come back.

    It’s that simple.

    In the meantime, YOU are making him come back, costing him time and money and not getting any kind of message through to anybody.

  6. C@tmomma

    think about what it is that Nicole is actually achieving by her stance wrt the Census

    You and Zoomster are missing the point that about 20% of the population is currently protesting in much the same manner as Nicole. Plus another 6% of the population that has responded but withheld their name and address. Plus another (unknown) % of the population that has simply provided spurious responses. So, something like 30% altogether. Not a bad protest, is it?

    And if the panic within the ABS is any guide, I think it is clear they are achieving something. So I’m sorry that the collectors seem to be bearing the brunt of the protest … but then I remember how badly some of those collectors are actually behaving. They are really not helping either themselves or the ABS.

    So if you can suggest an alternative means of protest that would be as effective, but spare the collectors, then by all means suggest it.

  7. Yes Airlines, please let there be a Newspoll tonight.

    And what’s happened to Ipsos? Seems they’ve dropped off the face of the earth.

  8. Player One and Nicole,
    A protest to achieve, what exactly? A suburban mum in Brisbane somewhere refusing to submit her Census form until the very last minute equates to a Pyrrhic Protest. I just think it’s silly. And only completely overlooking that fact will confer on it any validity at all.

  9. Hinch in his maiden speech today has named 5 persons of interest in regards to pedophilia.
    Fairfax has refused to name these individuals but one if not two of these persons of interest are well known in Victorian media and entertainment circles.

  10. Nicole,
    It’s nit-picking because there is no valid argument against me exercising my unalienable rights.
    …To stamp my feet and hold my breath until I turn blue…about the Census! ; )

  11. Player

    ‘You and Zoomster are missing the point that about 20% of the population is currently protesting in much the same manner as Nicole.’

    Bollocks. This is based on a report in a LOCAL newspaper, unsourced, and at least a week old.

    You also cannot assume that – even if the number is correct – this represents ‘people like Nicole’. In my experience, talking to actual people who are in this actual situation, it is more likely to be due to things such as family tragedies, sheer forgetfulness, or inability to speak the language. I’ve only met one person ‘like Nicole’ and they were at least honest enough to lay out their reasoning.

    ‘Plus another 6% of the population that has responded but withheld their name and address. ‘

    Based on one poll – and what people told the pollster. It might be correct, but at present we have no way of knowing.

    What people tell a pollster they’re going to do and what they actually do when push comes to shove can be vastly different – and we have had posters here who (initially) said they weren’t going to fill out the form at all who have since made it clear that they did.

    ‘Plus another (unknown) % of the population that has simply provided spurious responses. ‘

    There have always been spurious responses (I’ve probably been guilty of some myself). Whether there are more or less this time is unknown.

    ‘..but then I remember how badly some of those collectors are actually behaving..’

    Any workforce – particularly one with 40,000 temporary employees – is going to have a handful of people who behave badly. I really have not assumed in the past that because someone told me that (say) they were treated badly by an assistant at Coles that that gave me the right to condone bad treatment of other assistants at Coles.

    Plus another 6% of the population that has responded but withheld their name and address.

  12. For the ABS the number not filling it in is a problem: but not the biggest; the number protesting by filling it in with rubbish is a bigger issue.

  13. Kezza2,
    And you’re not some precious petal, either who has to make ends meet.

    Actually, I am. But don’t let facts get in the way of a good sledge. Do you want me to give you my address so you can be here to see Vinnies rock up to give me a Food Voucher later on this week? : )

  14. Confessions

    [And what’s happened to Ipsos? Seems they’ve dropped off the face of the earth]

    I’ve been wondering the same.

  15. c@tmomma @ #2614 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 7:53 pm

    Player One and Nicole,
    A protest to achieve, what exactly?

    I know you are just being disingenuous by pretending to be unaware of the issues that we have been discussing here for the last few weeks, so I won’t bother repeating them. Also, there is no point – it is clear that your mind is made up. So I’ll just reiterate that about 30% of the population seems to think these issues are worth protesting about.

    Perhaps what really bugs people like you and Zoomster is that the protest looks like being quite successful?

  16. As usual, 7.30 gave us an unbiased pov about the tumbleweeds blowing through the Senate today…by interviewing Turnbull government Senators about it.

  17. Frednk

    The assumption there is that they’re doing more advertising than they originally planned to do. That might be so, but I think the ‘forgetfulness’ option would be the trigger in that case. Of course not being able to fill the census out on the night would mean that some people who would otherwise have done it on the night – and fully intend to do it – would forget.

  18. Zoomster

    Bollocks. This is based on a report in a LOCAL newspaper, unsourced, and at least a week old.

    Go argue with Scott Ludlum, who said this today in the senate:

    “Almost 1 in 5 households have not completed the census, and nothing the government has done has given those people any confidence that their information will be managed appropriately.

  19. Well folks I’ve just been told by a source inside Crikey that they are about to cut loose Poll Bludger, They have had enough of the abuse and general disorder on this blog.
    Friday is the last day.

  20. Ipsos rang me about a week ago. Instead of doing an interview over the phone, they sent a link to my email account (“It’ll only take you half an hour to fill in” the guy said helpfully, after I’d agreed to do it…).

    The link didn’t work, so I deleted the email.

    So it might be that Ipsos is trialling a new way of polling (similar perhaps to Essential) and is having teething problems.

  21. [Well folks I’ve just been told by a source inside Crikey that they are about to cut loose Poll Bludger, They have had enough of the abuse and general disorder on this blog.]

    Will that kill off the sign in gerbils?

  22. BK:

    The Republican campaign frankly scares me. I can’t begin to imagine the depths they will be willing to plumb in order to tear Clinton down.

  23. Player One,
    Perhaps what really bugs people like you and Zoomster is that the protest looks like being quite successful?
    Erm, no, not really.
    Pointless and a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing, yes.

    However, what I do know is that there are other, potentially more effective and successful ways and means to lodge a protest. Such as getting together a petition and going around your electorate to gather signatures, then submitting it to your Local Member, who then must present it to parliament if it has more than a certain number of signatories.

    I’d even applaud something a bit more creative like Occupying the ABS, because then at least you would garner some publicity for your cause.

    Or you could constantly discuss it on PB. That, as you have been keen to point out as you rode your #CensusFail charger through PB over the last few weeks, has enabled the issue to be ventilated and dissected.

    However, honestly, do you really believe snarking at, and playing ducks and drakes with, a Census Collector achieves anything more than, as I said, 3/5 of bugger all?

  24. ‘They have had enough of the abuse and general disorder on this blog.’

    Well, if I were them I would send the gerbils off to the Krasnoyarsk Re-education Camp.

  25. Steven,
    The Bigwigs at Crikey becoming Nanny Statists about Poll Bludger will not be a good look. Just sayin’. I think our esteemed Moderator is more than capable of keeping the PB denizens in check. Unless they would like to insert the letter ‘a’ between ‘P’ and ‘b’ and then follow it with ‘lum’.

  26. c@tmomma @ #2639 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 8:13 pm

    Pointless and a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing, yes.

    If this was the case, you and Zoomster probably wouldn’t be getting so ‘het up’ about it.

    However, honestly, do you really believe snarking at, and playing ducks and drakes with, a Census Collector achieves anything

    Do you really think this is all that is going on?

  27. Confessions

    Despite Dio’s optimism, I rather think Clinton may not make it to 8 November. She did look really really sick on Sunday. Pneumonia is not a laughing matter when you are 68 and expected to campaign 18 hrs/day. Any sort of falling is a worry and usually warrants a ride in an ambulance (I once fainted on an aeroplane and found myself in an ambulance.

  28. Good lord, dtt, you’re hard to please. You originally said you wanted one of the PB medicos to rule on Clinton’s health because you recognised you weren’t expert enough to do so. When one does, however, you over rule them anyway.

  29. The $6.1 billion ‘omnibus’ savings bill, the catalyst for the PM’s plea for a gathering in the “sensible centre”, includes all sorts of sensible attacks on disadvantaged groups. The bill makes cuts to Newstart, pensions, and children’s dental programs, and abolishes the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. It also cuts benefits for people in psychiatric confinement and increases the burden of HECS debts.

    Turnbull’s “sensible centre” might be a desert for many Australians, but the important thing is it’s an oasis for capital.

    Nearly 600 large public companies and multinationals paid no tax in Australia in 2013-2014, the government continues to give $8 billion in subsidies each year to the fossil fuel industry, and it’s pay day every day for corporate lobbyists in Canberra.

    https://newmatilda.com/2016/09/05/malcolms-sensible-centre-corporatisation-concentration-camps-and-climate-catastrophe/

    Turnbull is same-same with Abbott: governing for the vested interests rather than in the national interest.

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