ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

A new Victorian poll finds respondents savaging Daniel Andrews over the Country Fire Authority issue, but Labor nonetheless retaining a narrow lead on voting intention.

The Age today has a ReachTEL poll of state voting intention in Victoria which finds the Labor government leading 51-49. The exact state of the primary vote is unclear, as the report provides a mix of numbers that include and exclude the forced response follow-up question for the undecided. The Age report leads with numbers showing a dramatic weakening in Premier Daniel Andrews’ personal standing and a highly negative response to his handling of the Country Fire Authority issue. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy holds a 51-49 lead over Andrews as preferred premier, and he has 42.0% support as best person to lead the ALP over 35.9% for Jane Garrett, who resigned as Emergency Services Minister over the CFA issue, with Tim Pallas on 11.4% and James Merlino on 10.6%. Andrews’ handling of the CFA issue is rated very poor by 41.8%, poor by 17.0%, average by 24.4%, good by 11.2%, and very good by 5.6%, and his relationship with the unions is rated too close by 50.3%, about right by 41.7% and not close enough by 8.0%. The poll of 1653 voters was conducted on Thursday night.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

15 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”

  1. To compare, the last public polling on Victoria was Essential. See page 6.
    TPP 53-49 to the ALP in April & May, 52-48 in June.

    There was also a Friends of The Earth ReachTEL at the start of August, but the full details were never released. Apparently the primaries were slightly worse for Labor compared to new Fairfax ReachTEL poll.

    A little bit more info on the new poll here.
    September 3 2016 – 12:15AM
    CFA dispute has cost Daniel Andrews public support
    Josh Gordon

    “Jane Garrett is surprisingly popular. So popular that more than one-third of voters think she would make a better premier than Andrews, Tim Pallas, or James Merlino. The point of caution here is that much of Garrett’s support comes from Liberal voters. Remove them from the equation, and Garrett’s support drops to 15 per cent, compared to 72 per cent for Andrews.”

  2. I see that the “Unions boo!” campaign by virtually the entire mainstream media has paid off, at least to some extent. I guess they’ll keep hammering it for another 6 months or so, see if they can drive the Andrews Government out of office entirely from that one incident.

  3. To all those pushing Garret for Premier, remember, Gillard was popular before she was PM. Be careful of the grass is always greener effect.

  4. I think the ALP 2PP in Victoria will go back up because this is mainly mid-term blues. The CFA issue could have been handled better (and its handling timed better) but that will blow over by the election. Skyrail will, barring some catastrophe, be finished before the election.

  5. I think it’s mainly mid-term blues as long as Jane Garrett doesn’t become Daniel Andrews’ version of Geoff Shaw. I’m hardly a Labor diehard but I wish she’d resign from parliament already and give progressive government an actual chance.

  6. Andrews is a bit safer from any Geoff Shaw style situation because the ALP has 47 seats, rather than the 45 the Liberals had before Geoff Shaw jumped. If Geoff Shaw had not been in the balance of power, he would not have been nearly as much trouble for the Coalition, because they could have hung him out to dry.

  7. Rebecca
    [ I’m hardly a Labor diehard but I wish she’d resign from parliament already and give progressive government an actual chance. ]

    You think she’s not progressive?

  8. Just been reported that Sports Minister John Eren has had a heart attack and is in hospital

    Andrews’ can’t take a trick at the moment

  9. I think Jane Garrett is more interested in getting into a pissing contest with Andrews and the bloke from the firefighters’ union than achieving progressive outcomes, yes. There is absolutely nothing to be gained from her recent antics except making for very happy Tories, and she ought to either demonstrate loyalty to the party or get out.

  10. Paralympics (on channel 7two) is AWESOME. Just watched power-lifting, table tennis, wheelchair races and now wheelchair basket ball. Exciting stuff!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *