Roy Morgan has one of its occasional SMS state polls, conducted a while back now, from August 19 to 21. The poll is notable for the inclusion of One Nation and other new operators as response options.
• The Coalition in New South Wales has seven points gouged from its vote as One Nation notches 6%, recording 39% of the primary vote to Labor’s 30.5% (up 1.5%) and the Greens’ 13% (down four). On two-party preferred, the Coalition lead narrows from 53.5-46.5 to 50.5-49.5. Sample: 1360.
• Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party opens with 7% in Victoria, causing Labor to fall 3.5% to 37% and the Coalition to fall two points to 36%, while the Greens are up half to 13.5%. Labor retains a two-party lead of 55.5-44.5, compared with 56-44 last time. Sample: 1231.
• One Nation records 8.5% in Queensland, but this mostly comes from minor parties, with Labor up one to 36.5%, the Liberal National Party down two to 38.5% and the Greens down one to 9.5%. Two-party is unchanged at 50-50. Sample: 858.
• Labor takes a 51-49 lead in Western Australia, reversing the previous result. On the primary vote, Labor is up 1.5% to 35.5%, the Liberals are down two to 34.5%, the Nationals are down half to 6.5%, the Greens are unchanged at 12.5%, and One Nation debuts with 5%. Sample: 806.
• The result from South Australia finds the Liberals breaking to a 55-45 lead, up from 52-48 last time, as the Nick Xenophon Team sheds seven points to 21%, Labor drops one to just 24.5%, and the Greens gain 1.5% to 9.5%. Sample: 553.
• In Tasmania, the Jacqui Lambie Network opens on 6%, with the Liberals down 3.5% to 37.5%, Labor down 1.5% to 36% and the Greens down 1.5% to 15.5%. However, sample: 321.
I have also been provided with ReachTEL polling of four state seats in New South Wales conducted for the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, which in three cases show big swings to Labor. The automated phone polls were conducted on August 28, from samples of about 750 per electorate.
• In Penrith, Labor is credited with 40.1% of the primary vote after distribution of a forced response question for the undecided (up 32.9% on the March 2011 election), the Liberals with 36.6% (down from 45.6%) and the Greens with 4.1% (down from 5.5%). This translates to a Labor lead of about 52-48, from a swing of 8%.
• Labor also lead by about 54-46 in the Illawarra seat of Kiama, for a swing of around 12.5%, from primary votes of Liberal 35.0% (down from 51.6%), Labor 39.2% (up from 32.1%) and Greens 12.9% (up from 11.1%).
• The other two seats are held by the Nationals, and while they both point to them retaining the seats, the swing recorded in Orange is approaching 15%. Primary votes are Nationals 43.7% (down from 65.6%), Labor 32.3% (up from 23.4%) and Greens 6.7% (down from 6.8%).
• However, next to no swing is recorded in Upper Hunter, where the Nationals are on 41.4% (up from 38.9%), Labor is on 36.9% (up from 32.5%) and the Greens are on 7.4% (up from 5.5%), suggesting little change to the Nationals’ 2% margin.
Regarding the Upper Hunter polling, I’m not so sure that’s not a swing – Nationals went from being 1% up on the combined ALP-GRN vote, to being nearly 4% down from it. Not as big a swing as elsewhere, no – but it could mean that Johnson’s seat is in peril, unlike Orange where the Nats look like retaining a comfortable 2PP lead even if they have to go to preferences to win.
If I saw a repeat of these figures as a Labor strategist, I’d conclude that Upper Hunter was in play, and start building a ground game accordingly.
Off-topic, but has there been any extensive electoral analysis on the NSW local government elections anywhere on the web?