Northern Territory election endgame

The Country Liberal Party looks like having only two seats to its name, as counting sets to conclude today.

Only tiny handfuls of votes have been added since I lost interest in the Northern Territory count at the end of last week, meaning no change in what looked like a result of Labor 18, Country Liberal Party two and independents five (Gerry Wood in Nelson, Kezia Purick in Goyder, Terry Mills in Blain, Robyn Lambley in Araluen and Yingiya Mark Guyula in Nhulunbuy). Despite narrow margins in a number of places, including the defeats of Adam Giles in Braitling and Willem Westra van Holthe in Katherine, the only seat where the lead could plausibly change is Nhulunbuy, where Labor deputy leader Lynne Walker trails by 10 votes. According to the Northern Territory News, 45 out of 127 postal votes sent out are yet to be returned, and will be admitted to the count if they are received by noon tomorrow.

Walker may perhaps be a chance if postal vote arrivals in the last few days have been stockpiled for final counting, but there would clearly be no prospect of today’s arrivals turning the result. The Northern Territory News reports Labor supporters in Gove have been “desperately trying to rally voters to submit the outstanding 45 votes and fly them by courier to Darwin before the Friday deadline”, which raises questions I can’t answer about the status of postmarks in determining whether postal votes are admitted at Northern Territory elections. Walker says she would consider a legal challenge if the margin was less than five votes, though on what basis isn’t clear.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

23 comments on “Northern Territory election endgame”

  1. Yes, you really have to feel for those oppressed Porsche owners, having to drive at or below 130 km/h. Having to apply for a permit (*gasp*) to drive any faster seems like an onerous burden for our beloved European sports car owners.

  2. Porsche nothing, even a family minivan will get up around 180 km/h if you floor it long enough. What I feel sorry for are voters who get stuck constantly having to choose between whether they want a corporatocracy or a nanny-state, with no sensible middle-ground option ever on offer.

  3. How many drivers of family minivans are up in arms because they can’t drive at 180 km/h?
    I understand your concern, but I don’t think an imperative for road safety qualifies NT as a ‘nanny state’.

  4. AR, i’m not sure keeping an election promise is quite in the stuffing up category, particularly one that only a minority of people care about. And lol at the corporate executive whining how “we” ended the car industry in Australia.

    “What I feel sorry for are voters who get stuck constantly having to choose between whether they want a corporatocracy or a nanny-state, with no sensible middle-ground option ever on offer.”

    Those same voters of course have done nothing about taking control of the issue and coming up with middle-ground solutions. Just bleating and cliches. Australian drivers are shit and if revheads want open speed limits then they should come up with a few sensible solutions themselves.

  5. Do we have a final result yet? The NTEC website says “The final vote count will take place after 12:00 noon today”, even though it’s past 1 in Darwin, and has a 2PP for Nhulunbuy that it says was updated at 8.58 this morning (under a header that says results of recount on the 5th). Not particularly clear!

  6. AR – I think I’m entitled. when driving upon a road in the NT, not to have maniacs in porsches driving an excessive speeds. Or don’t I have a right to survival?

  7. AR – But, of course, if you don’t feel you have enough danger in you life, please take up base-jumping or some other sport that doesn’t endanger others. As long as you don’t expect to be treated in a hospital at my expense, I’m all in favour. The nanny state should not stop you.

  8. i’m not sure keeping an election promise is quite in the stuffing up category, particularly one that only a minority of people care about

    Perhaps, but when it was a third- or fourth-order issue in the campaign, and then you get politicians claiming that people “overwhelmingly voted in favour” of ending the open speed limits, that’s fairly disingenuous. If anything I suspect people overwhelmingly voted in favour of ending the state-sponsored torture of children in detention, with open speed limits being somewhere between a far distant concern and a complete non-issue at the ballot box.

    I think I’m entitled. when driving upon a road in the NT, not to have maniacs in porsches driving an excessive speeds. Or don’t I have a right to survival?

    Meh. A crash at 130 km/h will kill you just as surely as a crash at 200 km/h. But show me statistics demonstrating that it’s the two sections of road with open speed limits that are responsible for the NT having 3x the national average rate of road fatalities and I’ll concede the point. And if the stats don’t show that, and the fatalities are actually coming from other NT roads, you should concede that arguments about safety and medical costs are just distracting strawmen.

    There’s no need to have an abstract argument on the subject, when there should be actual quantifiable data available by now to answer the question of whether or not the open speed limit is actually a safety issue.

    The nanny state should not stop you.

    Ah, but it does. “Unregulated high-risk activity”, they call it. Wholly illegal, too.

  9. Regarding postals the NTEC have been saying postals must be mailed by election day. The legislation though is not crystal-clear to me and on my reading might leave open the door to admitting a vote witnessed as cast on or before election day but posted later, if there was clear evidence that the vote was cast on time and posted as soon as possible.

  10. How many drivers are competent to handle a car at, say, 150km/h or 180? It’s probably fewer than the number who think they can. Remember, 130km/h is about 36 metres per second.

  11. The Guardian is reporting that Labor won in Braitling and Katherine, while Guyula won in Nhulunbuy. Labor are considering a challenge in Nhulunbuy on the grounds that 20 postal votes were returned unsigned and weren’t counted.

  12. ” If anything I suspect people overwhelmingly voted in favour of ending the state-sponsored torture of children in detention”

    Sadly I don’t think too many would have. They voted out the most dysfunctional government possibly in Australia’s history.

    ” with open speed limits being somewhere between a far distant concern and a complete non-issue at the ballot box”

    Non-issue other than as a marker of what people like /dislike about government involvement in life.

    “Meh. A crash at 130 km/h will kill you just as surely as a crash at 200 km/h”

    But crashes more likely to happen at higher speeds, particularly with high-risk groups such as young men.

    “But show me statistics …. ”

    The high road deaths come primarily from Aboriginal communities and overloaded vehicles.

    “There’s no need to have an abstract argument on the subject, when there should be actual quantifiable data available by now”

    There is not enough quantifiable data yet. But there is evidence to suggest that the higher the speed limit the faster people drive.

    “Ah, but it does. “Unregulated high-risk activity”, they call it. Wholly illegal, too.”

    I agree that people should be able to engage in high-risk activity that does not place others at risk. Driving fast cars on public roads places others at risk. The nanny state and individual responsibility do not come into it. If person A kills person B through driving too fast how exactly does person B get to exercise their individual responsibility?

    I’m all for variable road rules rather than one size fits all, but I think those pushing that line need something more than “nanny state” as an argument.

  13. AR – If you want people to drive at high speeds, I think the onus is upon you to provide the statistics. But am very content with the view that speeding kills.

  14. You killjoys have to understand that by becoming the owner of a Porsche, or any other luxury European car , drivers automatically become supremely skilful, and capable of travelling at any speed their vehicle is capable of achieving.

  15. I used to drive the NT roads all the time. Lots of things can go wrong driving in the NT. Once blew up the motor of a brand new Toyota 4×4 while overtaking a road train on the Stuart Highway. Improperly fitted radiator hose fell off when I was just about up to the prime mover. Seemed to take hours to slow down and drop behind. If another vehicle had been coming I probably wouldn’t be writing this!

    One of the big probs with the no limit sections of the Stuart H is variable speed of travel. Apart from big trucks, speedsters and tourists this road is critical for local Aboriginal communities often travelling as families in heavily loaded , old, cars. They don’t have any other option. No limits puts them at real risk from other traffic.

    Despite road improvements since I spent a lot of time there these are still some of the most dangerous roads in Australia. Complacency and unpredictable events, like horses, cattle and roos , are a nasty combination.

  16. edward boyce @ #13 Friday, September 9, 2016 at 6:22 pm

    The Guardian is reporting that Labor won in Braitling and Katherine, while Guyula won in Nhulunbuy. Labor are considering a challenge in Nhulunbuy on the grounds that 20 postal votes were returned unsigned and weren’t counted.

    The Electoral Act is very clear that postal votes must be signed so I don’t like their chances on that one.

  17. It’ll be interesting to see a two-seat CLP “Opposition”, that’s for sure! On speed limits, I suggest a look at Germany’s Autobahn network – there is, as far as I understand, no speed limit on a significant fraction of the Autobahns, yet fatalities are remarkably low by any measure.

  18. I think the speed limit complains seems to be coming for from car manufacturers than car owners. I’m sure they could afford to build or hire their own testing ground or apply for a permit for it.

    If there is a place without speed limits, I’m sure as per Matt’s suggestion, suitable urban grade Autobahn are more suitable than open country roads in NT. Cars need to pass strict testing in Germany to be allowed to use the Autobahn.

  19. Second link has Minister bios

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-11/northern-territory-government-announces-new-cabinet/7834466
    NT Labor Government announces female-dominated Cabinet
    By James Oaten
    Updated about an hour ago

    The Northern Territory Labor Government has elected the state’s first female-majority Cabinet, with five of the eight top jobs going to female MLAs.

    https://ethicalconsultingservices.wordpress.com/2016/09/11/nt-gunner-2nd-ministry/
    Northern Territory: New Gunner Labor Ministry
    Sep 11
    Posted by Mike Smith

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