Newspoll: 50-50

On both voting intention and leadership ratings, the results of the second Newspoll since the election are all but identical to the first.

Courtesy of The Australian, the second fortnightly result from Newspoll since its post-election return is identical to the first so far as voting intention is concerned, with primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 36% and Greens 9%, and a dead heat on two-party preferred. There is also next to no change on leaders’ ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull steady on approval at 34% and up one on disapproval to 53%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has nudged from 43-32 to 43-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1680.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point to 38%, Labor and the Greens steady at 38% and 37%, the Nick Xenophon Team up one to 4%, and the new response option of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation opening its account on 5%. Two-party preferred is unchanged, with Labor leading 52-48. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down three on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 43%, Bill Shorten down one to 36% and steady on 41%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister up from 40-30 to 41-26. Further questions find majorities in favour of bans on political donations from companies, trade unions and professional associations, with 50% saying they should be allowed and 35% disallowed from individual Australian voters. A question on whether the words “offend or insult” should be removed from racial vilification law found 45% supportive and 35% opposed. Further questions relate to illegal drugs, with 47% supportive of the decriminalisation of cannabis and 39% opposed, but heavy majorities against decriminalisation of ecstasy, amphetamines, cocaine or heroin.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,145 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. — You tend to be a picky POSTER, and get kinda dramatic about what you hate. Try to keep an open mind as you get older! —

    Ha ha hahahahaha brrrrahahahahaha

  2. c@tmomma @ #3095 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    MTBW,
    Last I heard Harmer was a Labor voter!
    It doesn’t really matter in the Warringah electorate in which she lives. : )
    What does matter is the position of importance she holds in the media in Sydney and the uncritical perspective of Turnbull she retails.

    I think people like Harmer still feel a palpable sense of relief that the embarrassing oaf Abbott is not still blundering about the world stage representing Australia.
    In that respect I am still relieved.

  3. C@t
    “What does matter is the position of importance she holds in the media in Sydney and the uncritical perspective of Turnbull she retails.”
    Does she?
    I rarely hear her programme is she really that bad?
    Some on here need to get a life and realise that people have their own opinions and we are not likely to all think the same.

  4. Shellbell
    Yes that is weird. And sad. ABC 891 is not very good and, like everything around these parts, rather ummmmmm …… provincial.

  13. In Radio you either need to be a naturally good interviewer or put in a lot of hard work and prep. Preferably both. But certainly not neither.

    There are many natural interviewers who do not get gigs on radio because they are not famous. Its a real shame – as Fidler shows (and whatshername on One Plus One), interviews can be riveting. Philip Adams can be very good too. Norman Swan as well.

  16. Photos
    Likes
    Tweets
    Sky News Australia
    4m4 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    #BREAKING: A motion calling for the spill of the WA Liberal leadership has been defeated at a party meeting.

  20. Someone wants to re-introduce Lynx into GB… in part because they kill deer (now in need of control as a pest species in certain circumstances) ‘humanely’.

  25. — dark chocolate shirt should rarely be worn with a lemon sherbet coloured jacket —
    Except at cricket grounds where such combinations should be mandatory. There were days at Nth Sydney oval domestic one dayers (late 90’s – early 2000’s) that these clothes (think sky blue safari suit) were the norm.

    I am not so fond of the beige, light pink and chocolate combi that richie has on.

  26. ‘Last I heard Harmer was a Labor voter!’

    Whatever. As a listener to Harmer, (up to 9.00am, anyway), it is clear that she’s been told to follow the ABC line re all things Liberal.
    Thus in recent times we have had an influx of Liberal ministers both state and Federal, when formerly progressive voices were more often heard. Harmer herself has certainly been less critical.
    Why a supposedly impartial news organisation would have PVO on as a political commentator is also the question. Surely Murdoch gets enough airtime already, without using the public, or should I say state, broadcaster.

  27. ‘Some on here need to get a life and realise that people have their own opinions and we are not likely to all think the same.’

    Ahhh, ‘get a life’. Put commentator in the same basket as those who say HTFU, get into the real world etc etc.
    That basket is labelled intellectually vacuous.

  28. ‘Guytaur
    This will be the last time I say this – I do not read every post on this site I have a life outside this blog.’

    FFS, you implying that anyone does?
    Way to miss the point, which is the commenting, not the reading!

  29. Briefly

    Rather than establishing equality for same-sex couples, your proposal would ensure their permanent exclusion from an estate that others would be free to join anytime they wished

    Sure. Just as much as non-Christians are excluded from Baptism, non-Catholics are excluded from Confirmation, and non-Jews are excluded from Bar Mitzvah.

    When you start campaigning for equal rights for these as well, then I will take you seriously.

  30. bemused @ #3089 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 11:52 am

    bemused @ #3063 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 10:55 am
    Shhh… do not disturb the phobias and delusions.

    Because the LNP government and the NCOA are so trustworthy of course and would never dream of doing anything that is not in the best interests of constituents right? How wrong and delusional of me to question their actions. One thousand apologies.

    The same could be said of any government, government department or agency, or business.
    If you believe that you are seriously paranoid.

    No. You have dropped the ball and have tried to build a strawman.
    It applies to LNP led and orchestrated reforms. Suspicion is not paranoia. This government are suspicion worthy. If you think not, you are wrong. Since day one in 2013, this ideologically driven wrecking ball government have been trying to implement an agenda which includes most of the IPA’s list of radical reforms. They commissioned a National Commission of Audit and if you are not suspicious of what they are up to, you have not been paying attention.

  31. ‘Shell, I remember the glory days of ABC 702. John Doyle especially, but there were so many others over many years that were high quality.
    Now what do you have, Wendy Harmer, The BuckWit, and James Valentine? Sheesh. Makes ABC Adelaide 891 look OK.’

    So true. John Doyle was the absolute best, and had the intellect and will to challenge any bullshit that the interviewee dared come up with, no matter what the subject.

    He wouldn’t last 5 minutes in the current wasteland that is ABC radio in Sydney.
    Ha, the BuckWit is the most annoying and least bearable of the lot. Perfect name for someone who glorifies in the sound of his own voice but has nothing at all to say.

  35. Porter in full on attack on individuals income. No matter that reality is simple math.

    X-Y=unemployment rate. No matter what he does he has to increase the job numbers to have people in work.

  40. player one @ #3028 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 9:07 am

    Kevin Bonham and Barney in Saigon (from last night)

    If you want to disengage from debating me then based on what’s been on offer so far I am happy to take that as a bonus. As far as I can tell you have already largely disengaged since your response to #2797 consisted of complaining about the bit quoted above (repeatedly and even attributing it to two different posters) while ignoring the parts that pointed out the critical problem with your position.

    I don’t really want to restart this argument, since it is clear that you either misunderstand or choose to deliberately misrepresent what I have said. I responded twice because both you and Barney in Saigon posted the same nonsense (he quoted your original post, supporting it). And so my supposed attribution to “to two different posters” is also nonsense – I re-quoted it because Barney in Saigon himself posted the same quote again, obviously supporting with it – which is why I said “anyone who holds (or supports) such nonsense”
    I will disengage from this argument not because your position is extreme, shrill and absolutist (we can just agree to disagree on that) but because you refuse to consider that there could be any valid opinion on the issue other than your own, or any other solution to the one you want – so what’s the point in any further discussion?
    You repeatedly insult anyone who disagrees with you, labeling them “irrational, uneducated, blinkered, unintelligent and mean”. As for the “critical problem with my position”, it is clear that you choose not to even consider a solution that offers true equality, because it’s not exactly the solution you wanted. Worse, it provides equality whilst also allowing diversity of opinion – something you apparently cannot tolerate.

    Ah I see your concept of disengagement involves continuing to engage. I have encountered this very strange concept rather often. Quite frequently there are seven or eight replies from the disengaging poster explaining why they are disengaging, but they never actually have the gumption to just stop replying and do it.

    Again your account of Barney’s comments is incorrect. In #2845 Barney quoted your reply to my comment (which included my comment) and then wrote “So we’ve identified those who are opposed to marriage per se may be in opposition.

    So:

    What other reason would support the current position on marriage over equality?”

    Barney was not quoting my comment to necessarily endorse it,. but simply because that’s what happens when you press the quote button.

    The opinion that same-sex marriage should not be allowed *is* simply invalid. I have considered the arguments for it at length and detected absolutely nothing of even the slightest merit. My conclusion is that there is no more validity in the arguments for continuing to ban same-sex marriage – any of them – than there is for teaching in schools that two plus two equals five. I do not see why I should take support or supporters for either seriously. I have shown why your alternative solution doesn’t work, and you have ignored that and retreated to meta-debate, citing my attitude as an excuse for ignoring my argument in #2797. In fact, the points made there further justify my attitude towards your postings. All you have left here is a baseless claim that I “choose not to even consider a solution that offers true equality, because it’s not exactly the solution you wanted.” In fact I have considered it – ***years ago*** – and I long ago determined it was inadequate for the reasons stated in #2797, which you are clearly unable to engage with.

    As for the final sentence – melodramatic piffle. Same-sex marriage is not a threat to diversity of opinion, people will not be compelled to support it. I do not have any problem with someone being legally allowed to express the opinion that same-sex marriage is morally wrong (not that I am saying this is your opinion), provided that I am also legally allowed to express the opinion that they are an idiotic bigot. That is what real “tolerance” was before the concept was unfortunately hijacked – it was along the lines of: even though you cannot stand the opinion of someone else you nonetheless permit them to express it without forceful interference. And if you oppose same-sex couples who want to marry with state recognition being allowed to marry with state recognition – whatever your reason including that you think the state should stop recognising marriage – then you’re not really in a position to talk about tolerance.

  41. player one @ #3028 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 9:07 am

    Kevin Bonham and Barney in Saigon (from last night)

    I will disengage from this argument not because your position is extreme, shrill and absolutist (we can just agree to disagree on that) but because you refuse to consider that there could be any valid opinion on the issue other than your own, or any other solution to the one you want – so what’s the point in any further discussion?
    You repeatedly insult anyone who disagrees with you, labeling them “irrational, uneducated, blinkered, unintelligent and mean”. As for the “critical problem with my position”, it is clear that you choose not to even consider a solution that offers true equality, because it’s not exactly the solution you wanted. Worse, it provides equality whilst also allowing diversity of opinion – something you apparently cannot tolerate.

    Thank you P1,
    I did not realise that advocating equality was such an extreme position.

    However when you say, “you refuse to consider that there could be any valid opinion on the issue other than your own”, I believe you are wrong.

    That is exactly what I am waiting for, a “valid opinion” from supporters of the status quo that even remotely comes close to trumping giving people equality.

    Nash on Q&A spouted the intellectually vapid, but that’s the way its always been line.

    Any opinion based on religious belief can similarly be dismissed as we should never, in a secular country, make laws based any religious doctrine.

    This debate has occurred in many places around the world and no one that I know of has presented a valid opinion supporting the maintenance of the status quo.

    An issue of equality should never come done to a popularity contest.
    If an issue is deemed to be one of inequality it should be rectified by the Parliament, end of story.

  42. player one @ #3028 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 9:07 am

    I will disengage from this argument not because your position is extreme, shrill and absolutist (we can just agree to disagree on that) but because you refuse to consider that there could be any valid opinion on the issue other than your own, or any other solution to the one you want – so what’s the point in any further discussion?
    You repeatedly insult anyone who disagrees with you, labelling them “irrational, uneducated, blinkered, unintelligent and mean”. As for the “critical problem with my position”, it is clear that you choose not to even consider a solution that offers true equality, because it’s not exactly the solution you wanted. Worse, it provides equality whilst also allowing diversity of opinion – something you apparently cannot tolerate.

    But….. But….. Kevin Bonham has PhD!

    Does that not mean anything to you?

    Me neither.

  43. shellbell @ #3100 Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 12:04 pm

    SK
    Back in April, driving between Goulburn and Canberra, the only radio am frequency I could get was ABC Adelaide. Weird.

    It may have been a rebroadcast from local stations because the other studios were having problems. We sometimes get programs ostensibly from Dubbo up here in Armidale as well.

    Unless you could see that the AM number was the Adelaide one?

    AM is great on long trips in the backblocks, often you can get something on AM when the FM just gives you local ads from commercial stations.

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