Newspoll: 50-50

On both voting intention and leadership ratings, the results of the second Newspoll since the election are all but identical to the first.

Courtesy of The Australian, the second fortnightly result from Newspoll since its post-election return is identical to the first so far as voting intention is concerned, with primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 36% and Greens 9%, and a dead heat on two-party preferred. There is also next to no change on leaders’ ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull steady on approval at 34% and up one on disapproval to 53%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has nudged from 43-32 to 43-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1680.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point to 38%, Labor and the Greens steady at 38% and 37%, the Nick Xenophon Team up one to 4%, and the new response option of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation opening its account on 5%. Two-party preferred is unchanged, with Labor leading 52-48. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down three on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 43%, Bill Shorten down one to 36% and steady on 41%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister up from 40-30 to 41-26. Further questions find majorities in favour of bans on political donations from companies, trade unions and professional associations, with 50% saying they should be allowed and 35% disallowed from individual Australian voters. A question on whether the words “offend or insult” should be removed from racial vilification law found 45% supportive and 35% opposed. Further questions relate to illegal drugs, with 47% supportive of the decriminalisation of cannabis and 39% opposed, but heavy majorities against decriminalisation of ecstasy, amphetamines, cocaine or heroin.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,145 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  3. Thanks William and Good Night. I am going to hit the hay now.

    I like Phil Hudson’s slant on these results, which is rare when I read an article from The Australian. I was feeling rather ‘meh’ about the sameness of this Newspoll to the last one, but the following made me feel a little more positive.

    Malcolm Turnbull reaches his ­one-year anniversary as Prime Minister with a worse approval rating than Bill Shorten and his government tied at 50-50 with the ­opposition.

    Despite Labor’s calamity last week with the forced resignation of prominent senator Sam Dastyari from its frontbench, there has been no gain for the Coalition according to the latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The ­Australian.

    I feel a little like the Simpson’s Nelson towards the LNP after all their carry on. Ha ha!

  5. Dan, i think the Fizza has just about Spluttered out. 🙂

    If there is funding linked to the plebiscite bill then i reckon its sunk, and the Libs then have to squirm, spin, and try to explain to people why having FAILED to get legislation through they wont then just pass it through parliament.

    Turnbull needs to slap the fundies down hard or he’s toast sooner than later.

  10. Cameron – amazing rooster 2015 to feather duster 2016 transformation.
    Not looking at a very good profile in history.
    Meanwhile we have a feather duster masquerading as a PM. A rooster at banking but not much else.

  11. Norwester

    ‘Dave’ managed to win two elections and is now only 49. He also did some good things (along with lots of bad) like defy his own party on SSM and get it through.

    So better than our recent ones.

  13. CTar1
    Agree your sentiment. He did the honourable thing after a massive stuff up. My guess is that he will spend much of the rest of his life attempting to rehabilitate his reputation and may become quite liberal on select issues a la Malcolm Fraser.

  15. From previous thread
    KayJay
    #2804 Tuesday, September 13, 2016 at 1:42 am

    Don
    I cannot find the camera. Come now my friend, why tell the neighbours about my activities nocturnal. I am really glad to be able to get up at all. Assisting others is commendable. Meetings excellent.
    One of the things I learned when recovering from a serious illness is that there are no prizes for performing simple everyday activities.
    There has been some great information posted during the last day or so and I am well pleased.
    Complainers see Dons suggestion. Put forth your own hobby horse. Others will probably want a ride.
    Excuse please. Camera off. I need to use the hotel “facilities”. 🙂

  16. Nicole,
    If we end up with 15% of households where no adult in that house has completed a Census, that will be about a 3 million people strong protest.
    Such delusions of grandeur. IF we end up with 15%, most will be of the ‘can’t be stuffed’ variety.

  19. Cat:

    Nicole,
    If we end up with 15% of households where no adult in that house has completed a Census, that will be about a 3 million people strong protest.
    Such delusions of grandeur. IF we end up with 15%, most will be of the ‘can’t be stuffed’ variety.

    And you base that on what polling?

    Whether it is apathy or not, the ABS and the government have been left with a big problem on their hands.

    They had the all-singing, all-dancing lead up to the election, trying to whip up enthusiasm, their gee-whiz computer program failed miserably on the night, and the population responded with apathy?

    What do they try next, draconian penalties? The guillotine?

    It is rather like that old saw: If you owe $200 000 to the bank and can’t pay it back, you have a big problem.

    If you owe $200 million to the bank and can’t pay it back, the bank has a problem.

    If there are only a dozen or so people who have either not handed back their form, or not filled in their name and address, or provided inaccurate information, then those dozen people have a problem with the government.

    If there are 3 million people in that category, it is the government that has the problem.

  20. Judging by the crikey ads; Turnbull may not be able to organize an NBN but he can organize a advertising campaign. George Orwell eat you heart out.

  22. IMACCA – The plebiscite is sunk funding or no funding. Labor is just dicking with the libs. Even if there is no funding they’re not going to vote for a plebiscite.

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Turnbull’s problems and weakness on display again as the cabinet mulls over the SSM plebiscite.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cabinet-weighs-up-february-plebiscite-on-samesex-marriage-but-labor-hardens-stance-against-one-20160912-gremg2.html
    John Birmingham says that the government is poised to announce the pointless cost off a pointless exercise – the plebiscite. It is said to be a compulsory public vote that will be required so will it be supported binding the parliamentary vote to the NATIONAL outcome?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/blunt-instrument/government-to-unveil-pointless-cost-of-pointless-plebiscite-20160912-grerzx.html
    Michelle Grattan says that Turnbull finds plebiscite trouble wherever he looks.
    https://theconversation.com/plebiscite-trouble-wherever-malcolm-turnbull-looks-65269
    Here is Andrew Street on the government debating the funding hate speech.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/why-is-the-government-debating-whether-to-fund-hate-speech-20160912-gre6dx.html
    QandA set up Nationals Senator Bridgit McKenzie (who showed some of her very conservative colours last night) with a video question on the SSM plebiscite from her gay brother.
    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/qa-recap-coalition-senator-bridget-mckenzie-confronted-by-gay-brother-over-plebiscite-20160912-gret2z.html
    Assola says the Turnbull government, bereft of policy action, needs to wake up to itself. Fast!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/senate-farce-highlights-turnbull-governments-threadbare-agenda-again-20160912-greaip.html
    Looks like Mike Baird didn’t get the message from Saturday’s local government elections.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mike-baird-brushes-aside-council-backlash-as-liberal-lose-seats-across-sydney-20160912-grehqy.html
    Phil Coorey says that the government has compromised over the welfare payment reduction. Google.
    /news/politics/coalition-compromises-on-dole-cuts-to-win-budget-deal-with-alp-20160911-gre0u0
    It beggars belief how the Catholic church carried on like this!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/catholic-church-aware-of-priests-offences-against-children-royal-commission-20160912-gregyt.html
    Almost enough to warrant capital punishment. I want these spivs to suffer.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/get-qualified-australia-taken-to-court-by-accc-for-alleged-misleading-conduct-20160912-gre7mi.html
    Abbott has turned undermining one’s leader into an art form.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/abbott-versus-turnbull-undermining-as-art-form-,9461

  24. Section 2 . . .

    More drug trouble at a Liberal incubator.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/police-swoop-on-private-school-arrest-year-10-boy-as-part-of-drug-probe-20160912-greaca.html
    Michael Gordon on the cost of stopping the boats.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/revealed-the-cost-of-stopping-the-boats-put-at-96-billion-20160912-grea35.html
    Oh oh! This Greens man has been caught out.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/act-election-2016/greens-leader-negatively-gears-investment-properties-one-in-light-rail-corridor-20160912-grealf.html
    Another way of parting money from fools.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2016/09/12/what-is-cupping/
    Things are getting more serious for Samsung as there are reports that it may remotely “brick” all affected phones.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/sep/12/samsung-galaxy-note-7-safety-risk-explosion
    Victoria is about to cop it again with more torrential rain.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/severe-weather-flooding-fears-rise-for-parts-of-victoria-20160912-greqie.html
    Derryn Hinch kicks off his Senate gig as he said he would by naming five alleged paedophiles under privilege.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/derryn-hinch-names-five-alleged-paedophiles-in-maiden-senate-speech-20160912-gremgg.html
    Joyce runs into cabinet resistance over his plan to relocate a whole department from Canberra to Armidale.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/12/barnaby-joyces-plan-to-move-agency-to-his-electorate-hasnt-been-approved-by-cabinet
    Poor VW. Now 100 million of its cars can be hacked int.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/auto/2016/09/12/volkswagen-security/
    Windbag Tony Wright pokes derision at the farce in the Senate yesterday.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-president-of-the-senate-holds-a-tea-party-where-time-means-nothing-at-all-20160912-grehqn.html

  25. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Peter Hartcher writes about China playing more funny buggers on the high seas.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/popular-appeal-in-looming-confrontation-between-china-and-japan-20160912-gre53s.html
    Another day of grilling for Clive Palmer in court. Deeper and deeper . . . .
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/12/clive-palmer-says-coalition-ministers-asked-if-he-was-enjoying-himself-in-court
    The CA Royal Commission has issued a report on the Salvation Army’s treatment of victims.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/sep/12/salvation-army-fostered-culture-where-abuse-could-continue-says-royal-commission

    Ron Tandberg on the cost of asylum seeker detention.

    Cathy Wilcox on Turnbull’s return from overseas.

    A beauty from David Rowe – Malcolm in Blunderland.

    Matt Golding on the omnibus bill.

    David Pope justifiably lampoons Barnaby Joyce.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/act-news/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Mark Knight on the US campaign trail.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/5b6d515193e31f1e1bf4b3a5dcfa1c39?width=1024
    Jon Kudelka in the Senate parking lot.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/71e4f62ad4fca646450bb03729cbd2b4

  26. I am very unhappy about the influence that conservative Americans are having on our society.

    The mysterious and highly secretive Marriage Alliance is receiving help on its anti-marriage equality campaign from people with close ties to the National Organization for Marriage in the United States.

    Marriage Alliance was a group set up last year to make arguments against marriage equality. The group does not often respond to media requests about it or its backers, but it has strong ties to the Liberal Party.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/09/12/marriage-alliance-tied-to-us-national-organisation-for-marriage/

  28. Don,
    Let’s wait and see, shall we, just how many people end up responding by the due date? All else is simply wild speculation.
    One thing I do know, is that Statistics being what it is, that an anomaly such as this can be compensated for when the next Census occurs, more likely than not, smoothly.

  29. Lizzie,
    For the reason you quote, I would speculate that Cory Bernardi uses his Taxpayer-funded trips to be an Observer at the UN to liaise with those groups in person.

  30. lizzie

    Corgi has had a lot of dealings with the RW bible nutters in the US so there will be other such nut job groups about.
    Australia has more to fear from the US “Yee Hawdis” than the ME Jihadis

  33. Someone has a quick look at our resident nutters and their friends

    The Monster Within

    What is ‘The Right’? It is a many headed monster, including Kevin Andrews, Eric Abetz, Tony Abbott, Scott Morrison, and Corey Bernardi. Given that they have such a grip on the PMs throat, what exactly is their agenda, insofar as it affects G.A.Y. Australians?
    One way to discern their thinking is to look at their friends. Especially their American friends. Their rhetoric on gay rights is a localised echo of what comes from the likes of the Liberty Council, Alliance Defending Freedom, The Heritage Foundation, with which they have intimate ties. They are the ventriloquists: ‘The Right’ provide the dummies

    THE YANKS ARE COMING
    Shortly after his defenestration, Tony Abbott jetted off to the USA to address (at their expense) the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF). They love our Tony.

    The recent Australian Christian Lobby (ACL) National Conference also featured the senior legal counsel from the Alliance Defending Freedom. Scott Morrison (our ‘how the hell did they find someone worse than Hockey for Treasurer’) was also there.

    http://www.thestirrer.com.au/the-monster-within/

  37. It seems like Labor has also been able to save ARENA. I don’t know in what form but anything is better than it being scrapped altogether.

  38. Labor should hold strong on the Plebiscite ie vote against it.

    The line should be – we should not be spending $160 million on a process that is not binding.
    Keep re iterating it is not binding – should be voted on in Parliament that is what we elect parliamentarians to do.

  40. I’d like to know PB’s opinion of the plebiscite wording. This is not saying that I agree with the plebiscite. Just interested.

    “Do you support a change in the law to allow same-sex couples to marry?”

  41. Gee, those who thought Turnbull would be gone by Christmas are looking pretty good. Sco-Mo to step forward and say he’s the man with the plan. He can create an agenda.

  42. Thank you, CTar1 for the link to the Drone Eagles, because it led me to this story about a country with very regressive attitudes towards homosexuality and it’s ‘treatment’, which have made it’s way into textbooks!

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-37335802

    Then there are the suggested treatments for homosexuality, like these listed in “Consulting Psychology” published by Guangdong Higher Education Press, a recommended text for mental health education:

    1. Platonic love relationship: Find an “elegant and caring” member of the opposite sex. Establish a relationship as friends initially. Then hope it becomes something else.

    2. Repulsion therapy: Induce nausea with forced vomiting or fear of electrocution when thoughts of having a lover of the same sex emerge.

    3. Shock therapy: Cause major shock to your lifestyle by moving to an entirely new environment in order to sever connection with previous friends, etc.

    4. Sexual orientation transfer: When you are aroused, practise channelling that feeling towards somebody of the opposite sex using pictures and audio recordings.

    This is exactly the sort of thing the Conservative Christian Soldiers (in the non-Defence sense) in Australia, would move onto once they had won their battle to keep Same Sex Marriage illegal, no doubt. They never tire of trying to get things all their own perverse way.

  43. Lizzie,
    I’d like to know PB’s opinion of the plebiscite wording.

    As I understand it from the leaks which came out of Cabinet (such a regular occurrence now that no one seems to blush over it any more), the words ‘a change in the law’ were included to satisfy the Conservatives in Cabinet. Initially it was going to be, ‘Do you support a law…’

    So I imagine that, should the plebiscite go ahead, the Conservative Christians will focus on how the ‘traditional institution of marriage’ should not be ‘changed’.

  44. C@Tmomma

    It was interesting to hear Jackie Kelly on The Drum yesterday, speaking vehemently in defence of “Christian marriage”. Good insight into their thinking (although I’d never thought of JK as deeply religious). She held the view (disproved in discussions by bludgers) that it was invented 2000 years ago by Jesus Christ and was therefore immutable.

  46. Andrew Street reminds us that the passage of the Family Law Act in 1975, which enshrined no-fault divorce, required no plebiscite. “All it did was take a situation that already existed – married people breaking up – and made the process less complicated, less damaging, less stigmatised, and far more equitable.”

    Churches were still able to pursue their own beliefs about divorce, and this will be the same situation after a marriage definition change.

  48. Took part in a poll last night by a respected polling organisations and I would say publishing a poll without all the questions also being published is very misleading as some of the questions were leading to a preferred outcome.

  49. Thanks, BK.
    So, Dasher Ratts is a major (and hitherto secret) beneficiary of decisions he has made.
    Those Greens!
    The Informal Party is gearing up for the ACT leckies.
    The Labor/Greens Government is showing all the signs of end-of-government syndrome: corrupt, in the pockets of developers, out of touch, more and more debt, crazy decisions like the Light Rail, more and more opaque… meanwhile suburbs are spreading like thin paint across the landscape as if the car is the only feasible future mode of transport – and species such as the Little Eagle are disappearing from the ACT.
    The rot set in the nanosecond Labor did a stupid deal on the Light Rail with the Greens in order to hold onto power.
    And the Opposition makes PHON look coherent.
    If none of them in the ACT are worth a vote, vote accordingly, IMO.

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