Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Coalition drops a point on the Essential Research rolling average, while further questions record an across-the-board drop in confidence in a range of public institutions since last year.

The latest Essential Research fortnightly rolling aggregate result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after two weeks at 51-49, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team down one to 3%. Other questions find an across-the-board decline in trust towards a range of institutions since the question was last posed in October. At the top of the list are state and federal police, followed by the High Court and the ABC, while political parties take the wooden spoon, followed by business groups, state and federal parliaments, religious organisations and trade unions. A series of indicators involving personal wellbeing were reported as having improved over the past 50 years, while job security and political leadership had become much worse. A question on trust in handling personal information found either a lot of trust or some trust for security agencies (51%), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (46%) and banks (45%), compared with 20% for social media sites.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,806 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Surprising that government agencies garner such a high level of trust, particularly in the wake of the very visible census failure.

    I may not necessarily trust Facebook to not deliberately sell my information to third-parties if/when they think they can get away with it, but in terms of thwarting malicious cyberattacks, implementing competent IT policies, and not trying to use my data in a way that could adversely affect my freedom, I absolutely have more faith in a third-party commercial entity like Facebook than in any government agency.

  2. Wow. Trust in the ABS has taken a mighty dive. I predicted it would, but never expected by this much. I hope the ABS are taking note.

  3. Turnbulls honeymoon was over a long time ago.Even if he is replaced I cant see the Fibs getting a honeymoon period for a long long time.

  4. @AR
    The ABS was polling 85% total trust last year. In this poll only 46% total trust do they get. That’s a massive decline in trust.

  5. nicole @ #12 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 2:38 pm

    The ABS was polling 85% total trust last year. In this poll only 46% total trust do they get. That’s a massive decline in trust.

    Apropos of that – should David Kalisch resign?

    Whether Kalisch’s position is tenable in the longer term remains to be seen. A useful parallel can be found in the actions of another statutory officer, Ed Killesteyn, the Australian electoral commissioner, who presided over the West Australian debacle in the 2013 federal election. He continued in the post for some months until the High Court ruled the election was invalid. He then quietly resigned, along with the West Australian commissioner, leaving the way open for new leadership that could rebuild public trust in the office’s integrity.

    A similar course of action may eventually appeal to Kalisch as the best means of rebuilding public confidence in the ABS and the census.

    Surprisingly given the above, this article ends up being quite supportive of Kalisch – but in my view anyone who has so utterly trashed the reputation of what used to be one of our most trusted institutions must resign!

  6. @AR
    I stand corrected. I just looked and it was 81% total trust in 2015.
    [Institutional trust in the ABS was high amongst general community respondents with 81% indicating that they either tend to trust or greatly trust the ABS.]

  7. Re the press conference this afternoon by Sam.

    It would be interesting if he asks the AFR journo who wrote the original article to help him out in sourcing a copy of the actual transcript of what was said.

    The hack journo seems pretty confident so it would be interesting to see if she and the AFR can confirm her confidence.


  8. Presumably the Andrew is Andrew Clennell from the Daily Telegraph. He is one of those people who is your mate and then not your mate as suits.

  9. I hope Labor and Dastyari stand their ground. The worst thing would be to give the media what they want to vindicate their pathetic story.

  10. Jesu H Christ. You’d think if there was any saving grace, Sam the Man would have been out with it, by now.

    On the other hand, that doesn’t make him guilty of said deed (speech).

    But if he was trying to be too clever by half, like bemused for example, then he’s probably shot his bolt.

  11. Reminds me of the Gillard days of virtual persecution over every little rumour.Minor stories made into mountains with little or no evidence just pathetic questioning.

  12. Hang About

    Cupidstunt – you’re a paler shade of orange

    And AR is a caricature of Tim the Toolman.

    Everyone else – Nautical Noughtlicks.

  13. kezza2 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 3:26 pm
    Hang About
    Cupidstunt – you’re a paler shade of orange

    Cupid is bright blue on my computer …. and most everyone else is an X

  14. A fairly regulation presser.

    The important question was: “Why pick THIS particular company?”

    I would have asked any or all of the follow-ups:

    1. Did you ask them, or did they volunteer?

    2. Was this a standing offer, or a one-off?

    3. Why send them the invoice? Why not just ask for $1,700 cash?

    4. What did the donor do with the invoice? Did they claim it as one of their own expenses? Did they pay the GST, or did they have it refunded? Did they claim a company tax deduction?

    Dastyari didn’t do anything illegal, as far as it goes, but the back-story of why he picked this particular company and what they did with the invoice might be interesting.

    On the other hand, the Liberals must be pretty confident about their own position, because if one their own took a donation under similar circumstances, they are in for a world of pain.

  15. At 33 years of age, Sam Dastyari must be just about the youngest ALP Senator. He said himself, he is passionate, runs at 100mph, and didn’t reflect on consequences.

    He has learnt a valuable lesson, and Bill Shorten has done the right thing counselling him strongly, and giving him a second chance.

  16. Phoenix
    Must be seeing different things on different computers.You have no avatar here just your name on that post,same as Kezza2.

  17. Mark Di Stefano
    17m17 minutes ago
    Mark Di Stefano ‏@MarkDiStef
    That Dastyari presser was one of the most in your face, hostile press conferences I’ve been a part of. Watch back if you can.

  18. citizen
    Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 3:32 pm

    Cupid is bright blue on my computer …. and most everyone else is an X]
    Purple on mine.

    When Malcolm – INVENTOR of the Internet is free – maybe he can get over to Crikey and fix up all the SNAFU’s on PB …..

  19. BB

    Menshen Zhu, the CEO of Top Education is a go getting entrepreneur of the Chinese state enterprise variety, with a degree from ANU. The private tertiary education industry relies on friendly government policies, so he has a ‘grease the wheels’ fund to do sponsorships, donations, glad handing etc for people who matter, or just to get the reputation improved. I note that Pricewaterhousecoopers have bought 15% of Top Education.

    So somewhere along the line, he would have said ‘if I can help you out with any worthy cause, call me’ – standing offer. SamD was foolish to use this for an outstanding office bill for his own office, rather than any of the other myriad ‘worthy causes’

  20. If the media had an investagative bone in their body they would send journos to China to search out the TRUE stories about donations to Australia.But never let the facts get in the way of a good story.

  21. cupidstunt Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 3:39 pm
    That was one of the most stupid statements by Abbott to Turnbull I think he ever made.George W. stand aside.

    * ‘Shit happens’
    * The virginity question
    * Bernie Banton ‘not pure of heart’
    * Making Prince Philip a knight
    * ‘As dead as the former Liberal leader’s political prospects’ ( John Brogden )
    * Candidate’s sex appeal

    ……………… and many more ….

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