Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Coalition drops a point on the Essential Research rolling average, while further questions record an across-the-board drop in confidence in a range of public institutions since last year.

The latest Essential Research fortnightly rolling aggregate result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after two weeks at 51-49, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team down one to 3%. Other questions find an across-the-board decline in trust towards a range of institutions since the question was last posed in October. At the top of the list are state and federal police, followed by the High Court and the ABC, while political parties take the wooden spoon, followed by business groups, state and federal parliaments, religious organisations and trade unions. A series of indicators involving personal wellbeing were reported as having improved over the past 50 years, while job security and political leadership had become much worse. A question on trust in handling personal information found either a lot of trust or some trust for security agencies (51%), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (46%) and banks (45%), compared with 20% for social media sites.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,806 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. DTT:

    I’m sure Clinton will see her way through the campaign. Meanwhile it’s the Republicans that deserve all the scrutiny for the sheer unfitness for office of their POTUS candidate.

  5. c@tmomma @ #2614 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 7:53 pm

    Player One and Nicole,
    A protest to achieve, what exactly? A suburban mum in Brisbane somewhere refusing to submit her Census form until the very last minute equates to a Pyrrhic Protest. I just think it’s silly. And only completely overlooking that fact will confer on it any validity at all.

    It is already having effect. Do you think people in the ABS aren’t aware of just how many are doing the exact same as me right now. Lucky they didn’t think like you as in what can one little person do? I am part of a something much bigger right now, a movement or one giant middle finger. 😀
    This photo comes to mind.

  6. P1

    I take it, given that you’re now portraying anyone who follows rules as ‘dumb’, that you pay no attention to petty things like traffic signals and speed signs.

  7. daretotread,
    You obviously haven’t read the link I put up for you about the ‘Doctor’ who the Trump smear machine is relying upon for much of their confected outrage about Hillary Clinton’s ‘Health problems’. Which you appear to have bought into, hook, line and sinker.

    Do yourself a favour and read it:
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/12/the-doctor-behind-the-dyin-hillary-meme.html?via=newsletter&source=CSPMedition

    It would also aid your understanding if you went back over today’s posts and found the ones helpfully put up by Nat Robb.

  8. Nicole

    ‘It is already having effect. Do you think people in the ABS aren’t aware of just how many are doing the exact same as me right now..’

    Yep, virtually no one. 1/255 in my area. Some protest.

    And I know far better than you what one person can do, because I’ve done it.

    Hint: punishing people for doing their job achieves nothing.

  9. Zoomster

    I noted and appreciated Dio’s comment, but that was BEFORE the confirmed diagnosis of pneumonia and before she cancelled quite a few events. I am not sure if Dio had seen the recent “faint’ video which looks pretty bloody scary. Hillary was clearly a very sick lady at the 9/11 event. However if she had a fever due to pneumonia that would explain a lot. However pneumonia at 68 is not a minor illness. It will obviously reduce her capacity to campaign in the next fortnight.

  10. Nicole,
    And you will achieve as much as a flipping of the bird does. 3/5 of bugger all.

    This photo comes to mind
    You do realise that those fish also achieve 3/5 of bugger all wrt the shark? They can chase it all they like but in the end their effort is futile. : )

  11. El Guapo
    Monday, September 12, 2016 at 7:52 pm

    Marc Goodman: Shocking stuff. The worst bit is the Facebook stuff.

    Do you remember when Coke wanted to put an ad on the Horizon – of every country.
    I thought that was BS, And it was called out pretty quick smart,and Coke was denied
    Back in the 80s, I think

    However, If you’re a Facebook user, then read Marc Goodman before you make another post.

  12. Confessions

    The whole US system seems shot to me. The fact that the two major parties have thrown up unpopular candidates is weird.

  14. daretotread @ #2647 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 8:35 pm

    Confessions
    Despite Dio’s optimism, I rather think Clinton may not make it to 8 November. She did look really really sick on Sunday. Pneumonia is not a laughing matter when you are 68 and expected to campaign 18 hrs/day. Any sort of falling is a worry and usually warrants a ride in an ambulance (I once fainted on an aeroplane and found myself in an ambulance.

    Will it be ebola or zika that gets her?

  15. zoomster @ #2656 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 8:52 pm

    P1
    I take it, given that you’re now portraying anyone who follows rules as ‘dumb’, that you pay no attention to petty things like traffic signals and speed signs.

    No, I only object to rules that have been imposed without adequate reasons, or without prior consultation. Don’t you?

  16. player one @ #2628 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 8:05 pm

    Zoomster
    Z: “Bollocks. This is based on a report in a LOCAL newspaper, unsourced, and at least a week old.”
    Go argue with Scott Ludlum, who said this today in the senate:
    “Almost 1 in 5 households have not completed the census, and nothing the government has done has given those people any confidence that their information will be managed appropriately”.

    Also I told Zoomster the article was 4 HOURS OLD… Convenient memory loss too.

  17. dtt,
    You do know that Donald Trump is two years older than Hillary Clinton? Or is that fact irrelevant to you because a hate and misinformation industry to reel in the gullible hasn’t grown up around him yet?

    The only difference between the two of them is he hasn’t got sick on the campaign trail. Yet.

  18. The mere fact that there’s an argument going on here about non-response rates for the census highlights the lack of transparency of the operation when compared, for example, with the recent election. So far ABS has been able to get away with this, but the music will stop for them when they have to front the Senate inquiry.

  20. Zoomster

    Yep, virtually no one. 1/255 in my area. Some protest.

    You do realize that if this response rate – or anything even remotely like it – was true across the board, then the ABS would have already announced that this was the most successful census in history, and would not be wasting tens of millions of dollars on additional advertising and hiring additional field collectors?

  24. Nicole

    It might startle you to learn that newspaper articles generally are older than their date of publication.

    If your local newspaper is a weekly, the absolutely newest story in it will be at least one and a half days old, regardless of when you actually read it.

    The articles in a daily newspaper (hard copy version) will be several hours old.

    In the case of your article, it was published on a Monday. So the earliest it could have been written was a Sunday. However, it contains information which could only have been sourced during business hours – that is, Friday at the earliest – so even if it was four hours old when you read it, the information it contained must have been at least four days old – but could easily be older still.

  25. DTT:

    Clinton’s nomination is not weird – Sanders was never going to win the nomination, despite being the hipster candidate of choice.

    Trump on the other hand is totally out of the box given the outrageous things he has said throughout the primaries. Were all the sane Republicans sitting out this year? Crazy. Still they only have themselves to blame for the situation they find their party in.

  26. c@tmomma @ #2639 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 8:13 pm

    However, honestly, do you really believe snarking at, and playing ducks and drakes with, a Census Collector achieves anything more than, as I said, 3/5 of bugger all?

    I have been very civil with my Census collector but you have convinced me now I must do more. I will not return it at all. Thanks for the encouragement to take it to the next level. As to petitions, they are already happening and open letters and an inquiry and submissions. It is up for business at my next ALP meeting too. 🙂

  28. So far ABS has been able to get away with this, but the music will stop for them when they have to front the Senate inquiry.

    Hopefully there will still be a Senate inquiry. This year’s census has been a complete balls up.

  29. Surely, within a few decimal points, a few percent at most, the ABS has all the forms it is likely to get.

    If the report by a politician that 1 in 5 have not filled it in is true, that represents a huge change in the way that the Australian public view the census.

    It should not be so. The census is very important indeed for all sorts of planning purposes. The government, by defunding the ABS, is reaping what it has sowed.

    The protests by such an historically large proportion of the Australian population, by either refusing to fill it in, or delaying filling it in as long as possible, or by putting in flippant or inaccurate information, is a sign that things have come to a pretty pass, not because of the protestors, but because of the way the census was handled this time around. The protests, of whatever kind, are a symptom of a disease that the ABS, and by extension the government, have produced.

    When you get civil disobedience on this scale, the problem is not with the population. The problem is with the government.

  30. Nicole

    ‘I have been very civil with my Census collector but you have convinced me now I must do more. I will not return it at all. Thanks for the encouragement to take it to the next level’

    Excellent. If he calls again, tell him you’re a refusal, and then he can bugger off.

  31. Isn’t Bemused cute

    A bit worried about WOMEN taking over the blog before the ubiquitous white man can bore us to death with his troubles.

    Tsk, tsk, tsk.

  34. Zoomster

    Yasu Christie. It was just a job.

    No need to take it personally. You know, you’re not responsible for every Tom Dick and Harry in Australia.

    Your continuing defence of the Census sounds like you were part of framing it. He he he.

  36. Don:

    I have deliberately withheld returning my census form until the last possible moment and have completed the form in ways which make it difficult to data link me with 100% certainty. This has been for exactly the reasons you state: the way this year’s census has been handled has been a balls up and I have lost confidence in the govt and the ABS when it comes to this vital population survey.

  38. kezza

    Yes, it was just a job. And all I do is recount my experiences of it. I have frequently criticised aspects of the ABS, but apparently those who are determined to portray me as some mindless sycophant conveniently ignore those posts.

  40. player one @ #2670 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 9:06 pm

    Zoomster

    Yep, virtually no one. 1/255 in my area. Some protest.

    You do realize that if this response rate – or anything even remotely like it – was true across the board, then the ABS would have already announced that this was the most successful census in history, and would not be wasting tens of millions of dollars on additional advertising and hiring additional field collectors?

    Exactly.

    Zoomster, your particular area is patently not a representative sample.

    see the following:

    Greens Senator Scott Ludlam said “most of the crossbench” agreed Australians should not be exposed to fines after the Census’ failure to launch.
    “Almost one in five households (has) not completed the Census, and nothing the Government has done has given those people any confidence that their information will be managed appropriately,” he said.
    ABS Census 2016 head Duncan Young said seven million households, or 80 per cent, had completed the survey by September 2, and those which had not would be encouraged to do so by Census staff.

    http://www.news.com.au/technology/liberal-and-labor-parties-refuse-to-rule-out-census-fines-putting-one-in-five-households-at-risk/news-story/738e06f7f9a0c54c38d892a73f710484

    If the ABS Census 2016 head Duncan Young says that 80% have completed it, simple mathematics says that 20% have not completed it.

    Or don’t you do maths?

  41. Nicole,
    I will not return it at all. Thanks for the encouragement to take it to the next level.
    Ah, so now you have decided to achieve less than zero? You go girl! : )

  43. Bemused says: I don’t air my troubles on PB.

    Sure you don’t. We know nothing about you, at all, do we?

    None of us have proffered empathy, sympathy, have we?

    Because if we had, we’d have been stupid, wouldn’t we?

    Or just caring, about your trouble. That you aired on PB.

  45. confessions @ #2686 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 9:23 pm

    I have deliberately withheld returning my census form until the last possible moment and have completed the form in ways which make it difficult to data link me with 100% certainty. This has been for exactly the reasons you state: the way this year’s census has been handled has been a balls up and I have lost confidence in the govt and the ABS when it comes to this vital population survey.

    I am doing the same. So are many others. And many who have already responded have done so in ways designed to provide the census with the information they have a legitimate need to collect, but to foil data matching.

  46. Boerwar:

    Qanda has been an easy out for me for a while now, outside of the few times the show decides to use interesting, informative and engaging panelists rather than click bait like Dean and his ilk.

  47. P1

    I’ve answered that one before – there are 13 outstanding forms. 1 is a refusal. Most of the others are people who have either posted it and it’s yet to be received, or are intending to do it (if you’d met them, you wouldn’t doubt it, either). 1 is a house I’m pretty sure is unoccupied but wasn’t able to confirm. 1 is a household of Asian workers without much English.

    Although I have 255 houses recorded, once you get rid of holiday houses, vacant houses and houses whose occupants weren’t there on the night, the number is around 200.

    It’s all out of my hands now, but I’d be expecting that the return rate will be, at is very lowest, 197/200.

  48. c@tmomma @ #2660 Monday, September 12, 2016 at 8:57 pm

    Nicole,
    And you will achieve as much as a flipping of the bird does. 3/5 of bugger all.
    This photo comes to mind
    You do realise that those fish also achieve 3/5 of bugger all wrt the shark? They can chase it all they like but in the end their effort is futile. : )

    So literal Cat. Is that because it is the only way you can denigrate the point I was making that in unity is strength. Let’s not forget the lesson of Aesop and the bundle of sticks. I thought all good Labor people got that lesson.
    Together we are strong. Divided we are weak. Together we do make a difference.

  49. P1:

    A curiosity is that since census night I’ve only had a collector swing by my place once. I’d have thought they’d make more of an effort, but perhaps the crisis of lack of collectors is esp felt in my neck of the woods.

  50. zoomster

    “And all I do is recount my experiences of it”

    And because of your experience, I’m a bit concerned about the folk of Indi. Are they all so stoopid.

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