Better late than never, and with apologies for last night’s technical issues, the latest Newspoll result in The Australian overnight recorded a tie on two-party preferred, a slight improvement for the Coalition after Labor’s 51-49 lead in the four previous polls. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 35%, with the Greens also down one to 10%. The combined 15% others vote prompts The Australian to delve into some of what constitutes it: 3% apiece for the Nick Xenophon Team and Family First, 1% each for Palmer United and One Nation. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are little changed, down one on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 51%, but Bill Shorten loses last fortnight’s gains with a four point drop on approval to 33% and a three-point increase in disapproval to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 45-30. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1867.
UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with the latest Newspoll, which hasn’t made much difference to it:
Zoomster
I think you have made my point. The answer is NO, NO, NO and No again. The only suburban prepoll booth is in a suburb that I would be likely to visit once every 5 years say if buying something like a car etc. Not any where near an actual shopping or services zone.
Now obviously many people visit the CBD for work, but it is not a place you to just visit. Xmas shopping perhaps, or for a special occasion, but NOT on a regular basis. Parking is way too expensive to go in for a quick shopping/voting visit and public transport is not cheap as I have explained. So unless I was actuallyu travelling overseas I would not make the effort to go into the prepoll.
Well, I’ll call bullshit on the “Labor losing the company tax debate” line from Bluey.
Polls consistently show that most punters are against company tax cuts, by a long tentacle.
I mean, if Bluey wasn’t permanently waterlogged, even an octopus could realize that if it was such a great idea, everyone would have tried it, everywhere, and we’d all of us Citizens Of The World be millionaires by now.
Bluey oughta stop watching Sky. It can do your head(s) in. At last count, only 1 cephalopod, 2 molluscs, 3 soldier crabs and a small but upwardly mobile bottom-dwelling family of inbred crustaceans watched Sky News. I reckon that’s about right, too, given the quality of commentary on that show.
Briefly @ 6:59:
I have no idea. Probably best to read the fine print at OECD –
David Rowe with a Facebook Duel:
Bemused
Towong is NOT, NOT, NOT a prepoll station. That is really the origin of my issue. it used to be where the electorate office was and there was a prepoll there. Now there is not. If you read the web site it specifically says it is not avaialble for polling. I think they handle enrolment enquiries and such.
It’s just incredible that the coalition have been allowed to get away with totally trashing the NBN and the economic benefits it offered the country.
dtt
And yet the figures show that, with every election, the number of people pre polling grows.
daretotread @ #1155 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 8:02 pm
I quoted directly from the website and will do so again, hoping it will sink in this time.
“This office has been established to assist you with enquiries during the initial period of this election. As the office is temporary, please be aware that it may be replaced by a more appropriate facility (e.g. early voting centre) in the coming days or weeks.”
So watch this space.
It will either become a pre-polling place or one will be set up in ‘a more appropriate facility.”
No doubt this will receive some publicity.
But if you get really desperate, you can resort to a postal vote or vote on 2 July.
BB
LOL
I posted about this this morning, and received mostly apologetic Surrender Monkey waffle from professional Labor supporters basically saying, “Don’t rock the boat”.
The NBN is the sleeper issue of sleeper issues. It literally (and metaphorically) connects everything together.
Yet Labor lets it lapse, too scared of their own shadow to utter more than a pingback.
Attacking the Coalition’s Fraudband attacks everything the Coalition stands for: phoney enlightenment, agility, motivation, innovation… and Malcolm Turnbull the man.
Yet Labor run away. Go figure.
BW,
I was serious, although I must admit I don’t know for certain whether the crustaceans were inbred.
Prepolling centres for federal election – AEC will update progressively as centres are established:
http://www.aec.gov.au/about_aec/cea-notices/files/2016/prdelms.gaz.ppvcs.160607.16.44.38.csv
I don’t understand Labor not tackling this either. Fraudband also neatly illustrates the policy incompetence of Turnbull and how he was a willing tool of Abbott and Murdoch.
BB
I took it you were serious. I enjoyed the flair. Bluey is off in a huff but tant pis. Bluey reckons the reason that Shorten is losing on company tax is that the Liberals are doing an excellent job of pretending that it is all about small businesses only. I have yet to hear or see a single journalist ask Turnbull why it is a good idea for Australia to export around $40 billion in cash for little or no outcome – and that outcome only possibly arriving after 2026.
Bluey reckons that, as for Shorten’s troubles with his tax and spend, this is pure bias confirmation.
Shorten has kept policy flexibility up his sleeve on the final big announcements but in the interim he is taking on water because no-one in the Labor Party can explain the numbers. It looks and sounds as if the spend is classic Labor – on the Never Never.
Yes I didn’t understand the attitude to the NBN expressed here this morning either. My worry is that it comes from people who profess to have connections with the party and I think if that reflects Labor’s strategic thinking they would be making a mistake. It’s about the big picture, the voters will be willing to sign up to an expensive set of social policies only if they see it as a part of a coherent plan for the economy and community cohesion. The idea that one or other policy is not a “vote winner” detracts from this way of thinking. I think it was just poorly worded though, it seems to me that the ALP must and will take a promise of full fibre to the election. I think it will be a vote winner
Ajm:
Our town isn’t listed on that AEC spreadsheet. I’m sure it will be updated to include it though.
Bridget O’Flynn @BridgetOFlynn
@FightingTories What implosion looks like.
Van Onselen said when Turnbull announced FB thing that Labor hadn’t even been approached.
dtt
Prepoll locations for Ryan
Primary Industries Building 80 Ann Street BRISBANE
488 Queen Street Level 1, 488 Queen St BRISBANE CITY
Chermside Kedron Community Church Cnr Rode Rd & Gympie Rd CHERMSIDE
The Courtyard Shop 4, 2058 Moggill Rd KENMORE
Samford Community Hall School Rd SAMFORD
Sky News Australia
4h4 hours ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
To suggest Sky News is trying to bully the leaders into a debate is wrong. @David_Speers explains. http://snpy.tv/1ZtJEga
My uneducated opinion is that Labor will have to lay it all out in a really simple way in order to win the election.
People are still waiting to be convinced that the numbers will stack up. If they can do this, all the Liberal attacks crumble into nothing. I think it will be risky as there will be attempts to discredit it along the lines of the “birthday cake” gaffe, but without a comprehensive account of the budget for their plan, I don’t see them getting over the line. I fully believe that this is what they must intend to do. They have already eschewed small target because they know it won’t get them all the way to where they need to be, won’t win back the trust of the people.
The Liberals have the right idea, the best slogan is “we have a plan” but unfortunately for them they only have a slogan and no plan. With a plan of their own, Labor has the ability to knock this out of the park, win government, and most importantly win a mandate for the far-reaching, nation building changes that they intend
Dunno about city pre-polling stations, but Armidale is well covered. There is one in the centre of town, in a very convenient location, and everybody in the district gets to Armidale sometime in the pre-polling period. And Armidale is a seven minute city, nowhere is more than seven minutes away.
Go to rural Australia if you want services. The cities suck.
ajm @ #1162 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 8:14 pm
My nearest pre-polling place is 80km away. Think I’ll be doing a postal vote.
The way I see it, the ALP don’t want to release the costings yet because they still have policies to unveil, and they’ll get the best bang for their buck if they release them later in the campaign. However the longer they leave it to reveal their costings the more permanent the damage is. Is it feasible that they could release the costings now and just indicate the value of their unreleased policies without actually revealing what they are until later?
Hurrah .
I have a window of opportunity to pre-poll vote at 1 venue before going OS . Thought I’d miss out.
Hear Hear to BB!
i might have missed previous pages on the FB leader’s debate
i hope any comments have been suitably harsh? at first i thought it was april 1st – turnbull talking about innovation and in same breadth commends facebook for debate – is this a joke?? as substitute for a town hall meeting? and shorten is going along with it????? why would anyone follow thousand of words written by staffers? what does turnbull know about social media at all??? to start with it is not designed as mass media, it is not a substitute for mass MSM – that is not how it used electorally well … there are normally three leaders’ debates – (i still dont know why sky has any stake at all in these ) surely bottom of barrell stuff
turnbull has lost debate without saying a word the weasel leader
Shiftaling you have to also consider all the voters who still won’t have a clue even when the numbers come out and will basically trust whatever Turnbull/the media/their mate at the pub tells them, who will all be saying “you still can’t trust Labor”. If only facts counted.
Not sure if BK has linked this but it is the single most devastating article on the current bleaching event I have come across. Particularly illuminating are some of the data relating to the incidence of Reef water reaching ever-increasing risk levels for coral bleaching and death.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/07/the-great-barrier-reef-a-catastrophe-laid-bare
The Liberals have the right idea, the best slogan is “we have a plan”
They do. It was set out in the 2014 Budget. Labor needs to remind everyone of what this plan is. Strangely enough, the ‘Plan’ on the Liberal website omits to mention defunding health and education, Medicare copayments and massive hikes in tertiary education fees. Just like the 2013 ‘Real Solutions’ blue booklet, just a collection of motherhood statements.
Bushfire Bill @ 1160,
I posted about this this morning, and received mostly apologetic Surrender Monkey waffle from professional Labor supporters basically saying, “Don’t rock the boat”.
Oo, big Bill on da blog didn’t have everyone going ‘You da man!’ at one of his pronouncements from the mount he sends ’em down from, so he stews on it all day and then swings back at night calling them ‘Labor Surrender Monkeys’ for daring to question him.
Laughable.
I’ve been phone polled twice in the last week, both times seat (Dunkley) specific.
The second time, it was a robo by Reachtel. They asked which issues were of importance to me … NBN was not one of them.
The first time is was a person. I was asked issues that would affect my vote and I said NBN. The youngish interviewer (I’m in my 60s, just about everyone else is “youngish”) then agreed with me – which I thought was pretty bold.
My point? The NBN – real NBN – is an issue. ALP must campaign on it.
A somewhat noir image of the Labor team at Coogee Surf Club today
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkV3rx-UUAE-a70?format=jpg&name=large
C@
From memory, I posted that I expect Labor will make a big deal of the NBN, and make a major announcement about it quite soon. But apparently BB doesn’t consider me a professional Labor supporter, or something. (Fair enough, given my amateur status).
I thought the issue with ALP going hard on the NBN was twofold. Firstly, people still believe the government line that the ALP botched it initially and secondly, the LNP have already blown billions on FTTN that cannot be recovered. The ALP will been seen as wasting billions by abandoning FTTN and reverting back to FTTP. I don’t know what the figures are but I think it may cost tens of billions to abandon what the LNP have already wasted. A similar scenario to the Vic ALP abandoning the East West Link but on a much bigger scale. The reasons why these are necessary costs to incur are probably too difficult to explain to voters.
Sorry, typing in a hurry. Multiple errors in my post above. Hope you get the gist.
Labor has been very clear that,
1) full and final policy costs and savings/ revenue measures over the forward estimates and ten year time frame will be set out in the second last week of the campaign along with the projected return to budget balance.
2) further savings / revenue measures will be released as the campaign progresses and
3) labor still gas a number of polices to release including NBN, jobs, families and health policies.
Taking the timeframe already announced as set then labor has two weeks to get its policies out.
The labor campaign team had done pretty well so far and I have every confidence that they will continue to do so.
BTW, and this is a serious question, where is the evidence that the ” delay” in releasing costings is doing labor harm ?
Cheers.
Good one.
Finnigans 天有道地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans 1m1 minute ago
The Lord of Point Pauper #WhenMalcolmWasPoor
Another live debate is Turnbull’s bunny moment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92gP2J0CUjc
Ellinghausen is the pick of the Canberra pic people, I reckon.
“A somewhat noir image of the Labor team at Coogee Surf Club today”
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkV3rx-UUAE-a70?format=jpg&name=large
The Idea that labor has run away from attacking Fraudband is pure bullshit. Clare and other shadow ministers have gone on about it endlessly. But the govt has managed to confuse the issue and make it too hard for most voters. For that reason, the NBN raid was manna from heaven.
AJM
Yes thanks for that. I did know.
Samford is a hamlet in the middle of nowhere. It is not on anyone’s regular areas unless you are in pony club. It is really a rural type of polling station catering for the hobby farmers of Dixon. It is reasonably close to the borders of Ryan but it is still sort of day trip packed lunch land. There is no public transport, which may be the reason the polling station is there, since no one can get to the city unless they drive 15 K or so.
Kenmore is at one end of the electorate. It is possible that some people in the northernmost part of the electorate go to Chermside regularly but I am not sure. I only go there for Xmas shopping.
Labor is on the verge of defeating a first term govt for the first time in 90 years and you lot crap on about how you’d do things better. God, please save me! The Labor team really, really, really knows what they’re doing.
I would imagine that the ALP isn’t pushing the NBN at this stage due to the cost in repairing the damage done by twofaced Turnbull. I would guess that they are VERY carefully formulating a policy (if not already done) before they say anything. There whole approach is to appear professional in their economic approach to counter the fallacy spread the by the Libs and the moronic MSM that helped spread and support the debt and deficit disaster BS. They may also be just keeping the powder dry until voters engage. That should be in the last week or two of the campaign.
Tom
I have always assumed the mess the liberals have made if the NBN was for the last week.
Doyley
I am not sure of any direct or indirect connections, but if you want evidence, take a look at Shorten’s personal numbers in the latest Newspoll. Also take a look at the small tightening in 2PPs in the polling.
BTW, I appreciate your posts.
frednk @ #1194 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 9:14 pm
The trouble is, by then there will have been a week of pre-polling and also postals being cast.
Any changes to the NBN are somehow, I understand, ‘off budget’. I don’t understand it but it somehow or other does not go the size of the deficit.
AB
One day the money spent on FTTN will have to be abandoned; just as the copper network will have to be.
Do it once.
Do it right.
Do it in fibre.
I am not certain that the delay is doing them harm but it does blunt their counter to Lib claims that promises are “unfunded”. But I’m really hopeful the timing of the announcements all play out well because I have a gut feeling that the voters have begun to stop listening to the govt and more biased media outlets, and are teetering on the edge of falling Labor’s way. Waiting for the license to say “they clearly have the superior plan, time to give them another go”. Also, I reiterate this is all just my uneducated opinion, based on conversations and impressions from personal encounters.
Sky News Australia
Sky News Australia – Verified account @SkyNewsAust
.@ljayes says if you want to serve in parliament – have the guts to face fair qs and don’t give us damn platitudes http://snpy.tv/1UbHC4h