Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor; ReachTEL: 50-50

A new poll finds Wyatt Roy’s Queensland seat of Longman going down to the wire, while Labor goes up nationally in Ipsos and down in ReachTEL.

Three poll results this evening, two national, one local:

• The latest fortnightly campaign Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor breaking out to a 51-49 lead, reversing the result from the last poll. On the primary vote, Labor is up two on the primary vote to 36%, the Coalition is down one to 42%, and the Greens are down one to 13%. Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated as well as previous election preferences, the former having been 50-50 in the previous poll. Fifty-five per cent of respondents nonetheless expect the Coalition to win, with only 22% opting for Labor. The poll interrupts a recent steadying trend in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, finding him down three on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 42%. However, his lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, shifting from 47-30 to 49-31. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 41% and 47%. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1359.

• The weekly campaign ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network is at 50-50 after Labor shot out to a 52-48 lead last week, though primary votes suggest most of the movement is down to rounding. This poll has the Coalition on 41.5% (up 0.4%), Labor on 34.9% (down 1.6%), the Greens on 10.1% (up 0.5%) and the Nick Xenophon Team on 5.0% (up 0.7%). No personal approval ratings at this stage, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister edges up from 54.9-45.1 to 55.6-44.4. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2414.

• There is also a ReachTEL result from Wyatt Roy’s seat of Longman, and this too is at 50-50, suggesting a hefty swing of 7%. Forced preference primary vote results are 42.5% for Roy, 35.9% for Labor candidate Susan Lamb, 7.4% for the Greens and 3.7% for the Nick Xenophon Team. Roy records personal ratings of 36.2% favourable, 27.9% neutral and 28.1% unfavourable. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 836.

UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with both sets of national results, plus the state breakdowns from Ipsos. As has been the case since mid-April, there is nothing to separate the parties on two-party preferred. There’s a fair bit of movement at the state level though, thanks to a noisy set of Ipsos breakdowns that credit the Coalition with very little support in Victoria and Western Australia. This leaves them down one in both states on the seat projection, while gaining two in Queensland and one in New South Wales (they have also lost one in the territories, because I’ve junked my poll tracking there as unreliable and plugged in the national swing instead). Ipsos’s personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull are his weakest from the pollster to date, and they have accordingly had a sizeable impact on the leadership trend.

bludgertrack-2016-06-03

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,603 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor; ReachTEL: 50-50”

  1. Spiers fell on his arske then. he got the only audience member who seemed a bit unhappy, with a question about people leaning away from major parties and he asked her if she more or less likely to vote Labor and she said she was still unsure of who to vote for but she was more likely to vote Labor after seeing Shorten tonight. She then listed the four or five poliicies she likes.

    ‘interesting’ was Spiers comment. Sounded a bit miffed to me.

    And the vision of Bill listening and talking to audience members one by one, who took up his offer of talking to him after the formal discussion finished, was bloody priceless.

    Bill, leaning in to hear people properly, eye contact, genuinely engaging with them and you saw the real concern Bill had for each person who spoke to him, and the happiness people felt in talking to him about their issues. While their friends took selfie next to Bill. All while Spiers and co discussed the forum.

    As I said, bloody priceless.

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