Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor; ReachTEL: 50-50

A new poll finds Wyatt Roy’s Queensland seat of Longman going down to the wire, while Labor goes up nationally in Ipsos and down in ReachTEL.

Three poll results this evening, two national, one local:

• The latest fortnightly campaign Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor breaking out to a 51-49 lead, reversing the result from the last poll. On the primary vote, Labor is up two on the primary vote to 36%, the Coalition is down one to 42%, and the Greens are down one to 13%. Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated as well as previous election preferences, the former having been 50-50 in the previous poll. Fifty-five per cent of respondents nonetheless expect the Coalition to win, with only 22% opting for Labor. The poll interrupts a recent steadying trend in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, finding him down three on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 42%. However, his lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, shifting from 47-30 to 49-31. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 41% and 47%. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1359.

• The weekly campaign ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network is at 50-50 after Labor shot out to a 52-48 lead last week, though primary votes suggest most of the movement is down to rounding. This poll has the Coalition on 41.5% (up 0.4%), Labor on 34.9% (down 1.6%), the Greens on 10.1% (up 0.5%) and the Nick Xenophon Team on 5.0% (up 0.7%). No personal approval ratings at this stage, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister edges up from 54.9-45.1 to 55.6-44.4. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2414.

• There is also a ReachTEL result from Wyatt Roy’s seat of Longman, and this too is at 50-50, suggesting a hefty swing of 7%. Forced preference primary vote results are 42.5% for Roy, 35.9% for Labor candidate Susan Lamb, 7.4% for the Greens and 3.7% for the Nick Xenophon Team. Roy records personal ratings of 36.2% favourable, 27.9% neutral and 28.1% unfavourable. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 836.

UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with both sets of national results, plus the state breakdowns from Ipsos. As has been the case since mid-April, there is nothing to separate the parties on two-party preferred. There’s a fair bit of movement at the state level though, thanks to a noisy set of Ipsos breakdowns that credit the Coalition with very little support in Victoria and Western Australia. This leaves them down one in both states on the seat projection, while gaining two in Queensland and one in New South Wales (they have also lost one in the territories, because I’ve junked my poll tracking there as unreliable and plugged in the national swing instead). Ipsos’s personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull are his weakest from the pollster to date, and they have accordingly had a sizeable impact on the leadership trend.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,603 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor; ReachTEL: 50-50”

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  1. Bad news for the LNP with the Longman result. It means that stuff last week about Labor not gaining in Queensland Marginals a load of bulldust.

  2. Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 2m2 minutes ago
    Recently expressed opinion, inter alia, that PUP in 2013 makes Longman look on paper a little safer than it is.

  3. Tom Koutsantonis ‏@TKoutsantonisMP · 1m1 minute ago
    BREAKING: NXT campaign manger & Senate candidate @Stirling_G admits to being a member of the Liberal Party

    I think what he meant to say was that Griff admits to having been a member of the Liberal Party.

  4. It looks like we might just get some strange results when the election eventually comes around. Some that were considered safe to fall? and SOme knife-edges to become more safe?

  5. Well, I’m sure that neither side can break the champagne out yet, let alone take it out of the frig, on this and similar polls. Still a long way to go and I sense most of the electorate is yet to be engaged.

  6. Jenauthor

    Four weeks in and its still too close to call. In other words voters are not yet engaged and its all still to come

  7. ReachTel TPP 52:48 to ALP – but LNP doing well in marginals
    ReachTel TPP 50:50 – but LNP doing not so well in marginals

  8. william bowe @ #3 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 6:12 pm

    Tom Koutsantonis ‏@TKoutsantonisMP · 1m1 minute ago
    BREAKING: NXT campaign manger & Senate candidate @Stirling_G admits to being a member of the Liberal Party

    I think what he meant to say was that Griff admits to having been a member of the Liberal Party.

    I believe Nick X himself is a former member of the Young Liberals. Amiright?

  9. Fess –

    Every good Liberal knows you hide your begging behind a solid, non-disclosable front.


    *I don’t recall* seems to work as well.

  10. So the AFP are doing nothing about Wyatt Roy during the election campaign but think it’s aok to raid Labor? Hmm.

  11. 50/50 not a problem, voters haven’t engaged yet, not even a corflute in sight where I live from anyone, nothing in the local papers either.

  12. I would hardly call a MOE 2% swing back to the government a ‘surge’. They still can’t seem to break through the 50% barrier. Plus, people are noticing Bill Shorten’s campaigning. A sign of things to come if he keeps impressing them?

  13. catmomma

    That question on looking after pets was telling. You get friends family to help look after pets if you can.

    That means voters are looking at Mr Shorten more like family or a friend than they are Turnbull

  14. ABCthedrum: .@DrCraigEmerson: “I’m happy to say I’m a feminist. I learnt a lot about people behaving badly towards a female PM – @JuliaGillard” #TheDrum

  15. Bemused
    Out where I am everyone in the ALP (especially the ALP candidate) shares some if not all of my views. Of the ALP members I know I would not even be on the extreme “green side.”

    If it was on a scale of 1-10 say on how green are my fellow ALP members I would rank in the greenest 25% but not the greenest 10%. There is one nearby branch where I have friends known as the KGB (also an acronym for the suburb) but it is way to the green/left of me.

    I am not sure who you mix with in your Melbourne Branch but seriously I think that my views are a heck of a lot closer to the ALP membership than your are. Possibly in Melbouirnebecause of the stregth of the greens, more of the original ALP left have drifted to the greens so you get a skewed sample.

    As I think I have discussed before, the greens seem to differ quite a bit in their demographics. I may be way over generalising things but my impression is:
    Melbourne the Greens have collected what was once the Labor Left – the people who would vote for Tanner, but not Feeney. This is a pretty good description of my poplitical position
    Sydney: Still dominated by the hard socialist left – Hal Greenland and Lee Rhiannon – old warriors of the Vietname moratorium era..I think in Sydeny I would find it HARD to be well connected with Greens .
    Brisbane: The Greens here I think are very much more conservative than in Sydney. Always were. Always had some conections with the Liberals. They are however generally lovely people. Spent many, many hours on a booth with Larissa Water’s mother (I was in red, she was in green). Truly lovely person and not in the least dogmatic.

  16. guytaur @ #19 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 6:21 pm

    That question on looking after pets was telling. You get friends family to help look after pets if you can.
    That means voters are looking at Mr Shorten more like family or a friend than they are Turnbull

    Yes, pets are like children to some people.

    Anyway, what I am sensing from these polls in general is that there is still a wellspring of reluctance to trust Bill Shorten with the top job which the Coalition are counting on to keep them competitive.

  17. If I were a LNP fan, to be sure that things were going to be “okay” after July 2, I would be looking for 52-48 for my side in the polls at this point in time. It is becoming increasingly clear that the government is fighting to save office, not to win it. The Liberal logo has all but disappeared from LNP polling stuff and it all hinges on Turnbull to pull it off. He may yet do so, but boy, it might be very close. Probyn in the West this morning was still favouring a Turnbull win, but not a Shorten loss at it were, because even if he loses, Shorten may have pushed so close that his leadership is assured into the second term of a Turnbull government whereas with a weak win, the knives will be out for Turnbull. Morrison for next PM anyone?

  18. lizzie @ #24 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 6:24 pm

    Five years ago, as shadow Treasurer, Joe Hockey jetted into Dubai on a study trip.
    …It is remarkable, then, that on the very same day, April 18, Mr Hockey was also recorded as taking a $190 hire care ride in Sydney from his Hunters Hill home to Channel Seven and back again.


    If he was still Treasurer he would be in deep do do right about now.

    Still and all, if Labor happen to win on July 2 this would be cause to recall him I would think.

  19. catmomma

    The campaigning well means Mr Shorten is getting the message out and voters are more likely to believe him.
    Of course Mr Shorten is campaigning well he does not have to hose down divisions in the party anywhere near as much as Turnbull does.

  20. Very concerning that there are floods in Paris, too.

    The bureau’s national operations centre director, Dr Andrew Tupper, said it was a very widespread weather event with potentially serious impacts for communities as far north as Fraser Island and as far south as Hobart.

    “Severe weather warnings have been issued for New South Wales and Queensland, and are likely on Saturday for Victoria and Tasmania,” Mr Tupper said.

    “It will be a rough weekend for some communities with heavy rain, potential flooding, and damaging winds. A king tide and huge seas will create very dangerous surf conditions which could lead to coastal inundation and beach erosion.”

    The impact of the weather will vary widely across different locations so it is important to stay up to date with forecasts and warnings for your region, he said.


  21. daretotread,
    All I wish to add about The Greens today is that I wish more of them were still like former Senator Kerry Nettle. She was a sensible breath of fresh air from a Green perspective on The Drum tonight.

  22. Interesting we now have two polls showing the small trend to Labor has stalled. Back to anyone’s election to win.
    So my local MP has a fight on his hands.

  23. I am not too surprised with the Longman poll results from ReachTel.
    At the last election the Primary Vote for the ALP dropped by 6.9% and Green PV dropped by 5.18% but all of this vote went to PUP and not the LNP (where their PV only went up 1.09%).
    The PV changes and the 12.79% PUP vote translated into a 5% 2pp swing to the LNP.
    With PUP not running the votes in theory should return to the ALP and Greens at this election. Any PV swing against the LNP also just exacerbates the problem in the seat for the LNP.
    The Longman electorate also has a volatile history of swings at previous elections. In the most recent 2 elections when the swing was on for the ALP in 1998 and 2007 the swings to the ALP in Longman were 8.98% and 10.32% respectively.
    It is a seat that will be a tight race on election night.

  24. On a bit of reflection 4 weeks into a campaign by an incumbent government in its first term is a major defeat. Its the same polling that Julia Gillard got with the resulting “hung” parliament.

    I know when that happened to the ALP it was not regarded as a victory until the independents threw in their support. This is the first time the LNP federally have ever been looking like they could face defeat or minority government after one term if my memory of history serves me correctly

  25. Lizzie

    They are recruiting for SES and emergency call assistance up here in Qld. Not sure if it will be needed but we are all being warned for wild weather tomorrow

  26. Reachtel are dodgy, how do they work LNP +2% from this
    Lib +0.1%
    Nat +0.1%
    ALP – 0.4%
    GRN +0.7%
    NXT +0.8%
    OTH – 0.2%
    UND -0.9%

  27. It should be noted that the ReachTel TPP when calculated from the primaries is 50.2-49.8 to Coalition, when last week’s was 50.7-49.8 to Labor.

    So either this poll is using a TPP with preferences allocated using the 2013 Election, or the Respondent-Allocated preference vote has come down after blowing out for Labor last week.

  28. Is this televised anywhere?

    Bill Shorten MP
    21 mins ·
    Quick run along the the beautiful Cataract Gorge before a town hall meeting in Launceston. Looking forward to questions from voters.

  29. Davidwh
    Friday, June 3, 2016 at 6:28 pm
    Interesting we now have two polls showing the small trend to Labor has stalled. Back to anyone’s election to win.
    So my local MP has a fight on his hands.

    Yes, ever since they stopped “governing” the huge trend to the ALP has flattened out.
    Just a bit of a lull… 🙂

  30. People do change their views. Previous membership of a political party doesn’t necessarily mean they still hold those beliefs.

    Frankly, such a line of attack is quite desperate.

  31. Yes Longman is a swird sort of seat. Actually is some ways a little like Corangamite. It has a relatively affluent tourist/retirement area like Bribie Island and some real industrial working areas. It also has a solid rural component.

  32. And (yawwwwn) tomorrow we’ll be halfway though the (yawwwwn) campaign. I’ll start taking polls seriously after the nominations close on Thursday (noon, remember, if you’re nominating!) and Bill makes his policy speech on – when, 19th? Till then, 50-50 with contradictory single-seat polls will do me fine. [In fact, I won’t take the polls really seriously till the morning of July 2. I still remember 1993 when the polls showed Hewson ahead until on the morning of the election I picked up the Crappier-Mail (still a serious-looking broadsheet in those days), read the poll in the box at the top of p 1 and thought “Sheeeet, PK could pull this off!” As he did.

  33. Bug, the ReachTEL numbers you’re going off don’t account for the follow-up question in which the undecided were asked who they were leaning towards. When those are included, Labor is down 1.6%. Also, if a pollster is going to be dodgy, I hardly think they’re going to do it in a way that’s obvious from just looking at their numbers.

  34. Oh i see how reachtel calculated the +2% now
    Add up all the positives changes and divide by the undecided;
    (LIB+NAT+GRN+NXT)/UND = (0.1+0.1+0.7+0.8)/0.9 = 1.9, round up to 2
    Of course thats crazy idea, but, maths…

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