Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor; ReachTEL: 50-50

A new poll finds Wyatt Roy’s Queensland seat of Longman going down to the wire, while Labor goes up nationally in Ipsos and down in ReachTEL.

Three poll results this evening, two national, one local:

• The latest fortnightly campaign Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor breaking out to a 51-49 lead, reversing the result from the last poll. On the primary vote, Labor is up two on the primary vote to 36%, the Coalition is down one to 42%, and the Greens are down one to 13%. Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated as well as previous election preferences, the former having been 50-50 in the previous poll. Fifty-five per cent of respondents nonetheless expect the Coalition to win, with only 22% opting for Labor. The poll interrupts a recent steadying trend in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, finding him down three on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 42%. However, his lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, shifting from 47-30 to 49-31. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 41% and 47%. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1359.

• The weekly campaign ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network is at 50-50 after Labor shot out to a 52-48 lead last week, though primary votes suggest most of the movement is down to rounding. This poll has the Coalition on 41.5% (up 0.4%), Labor on 34.9% (down 1.6%), the Greens on 10.1% (up 0.5%) and the Nick Xenophon Team on 5.0% (up 0.7%). No personal approval ratings at this stage, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister edges up from 54.9-45.1 to 55.6-44.4. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2414.

• There is also a ReachTEL result from Wyatt Roy’s seat of Longman, and this too is at 50-50, suggesting a hefty swing of 7%. Forced preference primary vote results are 42.5% for Roy, 35.9% for Labor candidate Susan Lamb, 7.4% for the Greens and 3.7% for the Nick Xenophon Team. Roy records personal ratings of 36.2% favourable, 27.9% neutral and 28.1% unfavourable. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 836.

UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with both sets of national results, plus the state breakdowns from Ipsos. As has been the case since mid-April, there is nothing to separate the parties on two-party preferred. There’s a fair bit of movement at the state level though, thanks to a noisy set of Ipsos breakdowns that credit the Coalition with very little support in Victoria and Western Australia. This leaves them down one in both states on the seat projection, while gaining two in Queensland and one in New South Wales (they have also lost one in the territories, because I’ve junked my poll tracking there as unreliable and plugged in the national swing instead). Ipsos’s personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull are his weakest from the pollster to date, and they have accordingly had a sizeable impact on the leadership trend.

bludgertrack-2016-06-03

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,603 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor; ReachTEL: 50-50”

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  4. Peg

    The weirdest thing about that report is that Wyatt Roy is MT’s assistant innovation minister. As far as I can see, he’s MT’s assistant minister for naive start-up theories and the ability to swallow business jargon in large lumps.

  5. I think it is relevant that X and Grif are both former Libs. Pointing that out probably encourages Lib voters to switch to NXT and discourages Labor voters from voting NXT. Sounds like a very good strategy for Labor.

  7. Guytaur

    Bloody hell. Do these fools have any idea what they’re doing to Australia’s reputation abroad? Seems they thought they’d bought off the world when they signed the TPP.

  8. Latika M Bourke ‏@latikambourke 28m28 minutes ago
    Latika M Bourke Retweeted Helen Dale
    Not surprised @DavidLeyonhjelm’s former staffer wants everyone to know she had nothing to do with this.

    Helen Dale
    ‏@_HelenDale
    Just confirming I played no part in negotiating this agreement; I was not consulted at all http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-cash-for-candidacy-leaked-documents-show-500000-offer-to-become-liberal-democratic-senate-candidate-20160603-gpazt5.html … @HeathJAston #ausvotes

  9. If we’re talking the environment, I’m extremely green – made my council employ an Environment Officer, worked with Monash Uni on climate change (and within the party on how to address it), lobbied to get cattle off the High Plains, inaugural secretary of our new Landcare group, etc.

    I just like getting things done rather than talking about them.

  10. Why did Xenophon split with the Libs and go it alone. Was he overlooked for pre-selection? Tantrum? I know he has made a big thing out of pokies, but that has always struck me as a gimmick.

  11. Di Natale:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-03/di-natale-quiet-on-surplus-under-greens-election-policies/7476134

    “We need to recognise that having debt work for us in the form of productive infrastructure is a good investment,” he said.

    “This nonsense that we need to cut spending on essential services, that we need to grow the infrastructure deficit that’s already a significant one in this country simply in an effort to reach a surplus by an artificial timetable is bad economic policy.”

  12. Confessions

    Nope nope nope. Not as far as I have seen. Live coverage of Shorten doing Town Hall would mean he would win election. Can’t have that

  13. Millennial – yes, ReachTEL have recently switched to respondant allocated preferences for their national polls. From their new poll’s notes…

    * Preferences for the most recent polls (5th, 19th, 26th May and 2nd of June) are based on respondent allocated preferences. All other polls used 2013 election preference distribution.

  14. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/03/in-for-the-long-haul-tanya-plibersek-faces-rising-greens-tide-of-inner-sydney

    At the heart of Australia’s biggest city is one of the more colourful races of the election campaign. The sitting Labor member for the Sydney electoral district is the federal deputy leader, Tanya Plibersek. Up against her is the Liberal party’s candidate, the 27-year-old openly gay Indigenous lawyer Geoffrey Winters, and the Greens candidate, Sylvie Ellsmore, who defies some preconceptions by being a meat-eating karate black belt./

  15. Sohar

    Why did Xenophon split with the Libs and go it alone. Was he overlooked for pre-selection? Tantrum?

    I was thinking exactly that earlier.

  16. “Bad news for the LNP with the Longman result. It means that stuff last week about Labor not gaining in Queensland Marginals a load of bulldust.”

    But I have heard on the grapevine Labor is doing better in the outer suburbs then it is in the inner city. So I would be careful rushing to judgement thinking the seat of Brisbane is in the bag.

  17. X, it seems, was the unwitting and innocent beneficiary of a Liberal scam in a student election at Adelaide Uni. He apparently left the Liberal Party when the scam was exposed.
    The whole thing has been fully documented but it is some years since I read it and I do not remember the author or the publication.

  22. daretotread @ #25 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 6:24 pm

    Bemused
    Out where I am everyone in the ALP (especially the ALP candidate) shares some if not all of my views. Of the ALP members I know I would not even be on the extreme “green side.”
    If it was on a scale of 1-10 say on how green are my fellow ALP members I would rank in the greenest 25% but not the greenest 10%. There is one nearby branch where I have friends known as the KGB (also an acronym for the suburb) but it is way to the green/left of me.
    I am not sure who you mix with in your Melbourne Branch but seriously I think that my views are a heck of a lot closer to the ALP membership than your are. Possibly in Melbouirnebecause of the stregth of the greens, more of the original ALP left have drifted to the greens so you get a skewed sample.
    As I think I have discussed before, the greens seem to differ quite a bit in their demographics. I may be way over generalising things but my impression is:
    Melbourne the Greens have collected what was once the Labor Left – the people who would vote for Tanner, but not Feeney. This is a pretty good description of my poplitical position
    Sydney: Still dominated by the hard socialist left – Hal Greenland and Lee Rhiannon – old warriors of the Vietname moratorium era..I think in Sydeny I would find it HARD to be well connected with Greens .
    Brisbane: The Greens here I think are very much more conservative than in Sydney. Always were. Always had some conections with the Liberals. They are however generally lovely people. Spent many, many hours on a booth with Larissa Water’s mother (I was in red, she was in green). Truly lovely person and not in the least dogmatic.

    You are the only ALP member I know who would classify themselves as any percent Green.

    Do not confuse issues with those who seek to appropriate those issues as theirs alone.

    Your ALP circles in which you mix must be truly weird and noting like ALP members in Melbourne. My views would be pretty much mainstream in all ALP branches I am at all aware of, probably rather to the left of some but not at all sympathetic to the Greens who are widely recognised as yet another anti-Labor party.

    That does not preclude us seeing them as marginally better than the Libs and preferencing accordingly.

    In the Melbourne I know, the Greens have not ‘collected what was once the Labor Left – the people who would vote for Tanner, but not Feeney’. They have collected a fringe of rat-bags we are better off without.

  25. Gt
    The first comment on the ‘nun’ story

    Substandard and Poor ‏@64AnthonyP 2h2 hours ago Hamilton, South Australia

    @RexMartinich @Dazr @aussexparty They should sentence those nuns to a lifetime of community service orders….

    😆

  28. Noting the LDP Senate candidate in SA is businessman Mr Sadri and the suggestion that his position was based on negotiations about a lot of money being donated. It might also be worth someone asking some questions about arrangements between Family First Party in SA and their Senate candidate Mr Day. Mr Day was a prominent Liberal but joined the FFP in SA after losing pre-selection to Mr Jamie Briggs in the Downer resignation by-election for Mayo in 2008. On the public record is that Mr Day made 2 loans of $405,000 to FFP in 2009/10 http://www.theage.com.au/national/family-first-gets-405000-lifeline-from-its-chairman-20110212-1are4.html

  30. daretotread @ #25 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 6:24 pm

    You’re also the only Labor member I know that seems to prefer the prospect of G success to Labor success. Most of your posts are pro-G campaigning.

  32. Why is it when the ALP are ahead in the polls it’s a blow out but when the LNP claw it back it’s a surge in approval?

  33. Am just checking SKY multiview to see if they’re televising Shorten’s town hall. They have done several in the past, but I ma guessing they’re pretty stretched right now so won’t. Sometimes it is a very weak SKYPE view

    Does anybody know what time it starts?

  35. It’s all about perception (dare I say preconception?) MikeH

    media is the most lagging indicator of the lot! They hop aboard the bus only as the doors are closing

  36. Sohar

    Why did Xenophon split with the Libs and go it alone. Was he overlooked for pre-selection? Tantrum? I know he has made a big thing out of pokies, but that has always struck me as a gimmick.

    Nope, not a gimmick, X is very serious about it. An acquaintance or family member of his with a brain injury or something lost his payout within hours of getting his compensation payment, down the f@()ing poker machines in the Adelaide casino.
    X, like me, hates the things with a passion, and the legal scum who run them.

  37. Further to last ….
    and when the bus reaches the next stop they pretend they got on at the beginning of the route!

  38. Guytaur
    #81 Friday, June 3, 2016 at 7:28 pm

    Moist people…excepting the G’s, who do nothing but use this site as a campaign vehcle

  39. An on the ground report from Mayo
    Last night Jamie Briggs insinuated himself onto the monthly meeting of local dairy farmers at the local pub. He made an absolute goose of himself. A number of them said that they have voted Liberal all their lives but will not vote for Briggs.
    I also gleaned that Rebbekha Sharkie (NXT) is feeling pretty good about things.

  40. Is there any correlation between the fact that the libs seem to have stopped their free-fall about the time they stopped governing this country. Was there a collective sigh of relief when they took their hands off the tiller and did what they do best: lying on the campaign trail?

  42. The Longman poll tells me one thing – the big vote for PUP in 2013 has to go somewhere else in 2016, and that might help Labor in a few seats like this one.

  43. Any particular reason why Labor so far isn’t winning the seat of Brisbane, and supposedly is vulnerable in Griffith?

  46. jen

    Thanks for that. I’m going with the preconception idea. From what I see rise in the Liberal’s stakes mostly suits a media already settled on them winning office.

  47. Longman not such a surprise. The Newspoll quarterly aggregates showed the five capital cities swing at around half of the overall swing, with the swing outside of those places at 1.75 or nearly twice the overall swing. This explains talk of Libs holding some close city marginals. But those votes had to be changing somewhere and it seems that a few seats further up the pendulum are in play instead. Makes me wonder if the recent Reachtel Corangamite poll could be a dud.

  48. I read it so you don’t have to.
    Bolt:Still not happy
    [
    I don’t think voters know quite how vindictive Turnbull is, and what depths his media team have stooped to in trying to intimidate journalists.

    When I am permitted to reveal some confidences I will. I am not quite saying Turnbull is a Rudd, but I am saying that the advertising does not resemble the goods and there will be buyers’ remorse. Already many Liberal MPs are worried.. The superannuation strife is just a hint of what’s to come.

    And a question for Liberal MPs: if you cannot control Turnbull before the election, do you think you can control him after?]
    [
    I can understand the Turnbull Government wanting to crack down on super concessions. My problem is that it seems it is not telling the truth and does not understand exactly what it’s doing:]

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